Maywood Park - Race Card Analysis
Friday, May 4, 2012
(Program odds in parentheses)
4 - SNIPPY BINK (5/2)
Raced very well in debut, coming from well out of it to finish second. Should improve off that race and with a better post, should be in better position to reel in the leaders. Top driver and respected trainer also add to the appeal here. Solid.
6 - CJ'S REAL DEAL (6/1)
Been going back and forth between here and BMP in search of his first lifetime win. Is typically right in the mix. 0 for 12 lifetime is a bit of a red flag, but this one looks like a good fit here and is certainly a contender to be in the money.
5 - WESTERN MODEL (3/1)
Finished third last time out against BMP claimers. Lines indicate some breaking issues. Don't really trust this one.
2 - TRIGGERHAPPY HERO (10/1)
Better post tonight could lead to a better trip for this one. Outside shot.
3 - LITTLE RICKY (8/1)
Makes 2012 debut. Lightly raced last year. Watch tote for clues.
7 - JACK N WATER (15/1)
Was not much of a factor in his 2012 debut. Might improve with a more aggressive drive from tonight's new driver. Tough post. Watch for now.
1 - NJ'S GO JOHNNY GO (4/1)
0 for 14 lifetime. Could not beat claimers in last. Outside shot at minor award.
8 - ROCK RIVNDEL (12/1)
0 for 48 lifetime. Does get close from time to time, but it is highly unlikely the long losing streak comes to an end here.
7 - SAILORS SKY (20/1)
Showed speed before tiring last time out at BMP in a start he figured to need. Could be dangerous here. He has six wins in ten lifetime starts at this track. Trainer/driver Gillespie have been on a roll lately and the horse should be tighter tonight.
1 - M M WEST (2/1)
Solid as they come at this level. Has hit the board in six straight. Has 20 lifetime wins at this track and will be tough to beat from this spot.
5 - WOODY'S SHARK BITE (6/1)
This guy caught my eye a couple weeks ago when he set a blazing pace and held on for third. Drops back down to appropriate level tonight. Should go out winging and will likely have control. Big shot to take it all the way.
2 - MOSES HANOVER (5/2)
Could not close the deal last week as the betting favorite. Also does very well at this level and figures to be on or near the lead throughout. Must use.
4 - KEITHER (9/2)
Was not able to keep up with the pack last time out. Top pilot returns tonight, however, and that could make a big difference. Needs right trip, but is capable.
3 - SENSATIONAL BB (12/1)
Should be closer to the fray with the better post draw tonight. Form cycle does look to be pointing downward. Pass for now.
6 - WHATSHOULDIDO (15/1)
Struggles to win. Tough spot here. Pass.
8 - ROCKET DOG (8/1)
Dull recent form. Does not win very often. Tough post. Pass.
5 - MY KIND OF TOWNE (3/1)
Liked him last week and he raced well from the eight post. With a better post here, he should have the striking position needed to beat these. Giving him another chance.
3 - MADEY MAC (5/2)
Returns after a brief layoff. Solid trainer and driver combo. Horse likes to win and has eight lifetime victories at this track. Has to be respected here.
8 - J V'S BAD BOY (9/2)
Speedball from the eight post was not able to hang on against easier in last. Will likely fire out again and hope for the best.
1 - OUR SECOND CHANCE (10/1)
Should improve with the shift to the rail. Should be competitive in this spot.
2 - MY SECRET WEAPON (15/1)
Has been in much tougher company in last few. Drops to a much easier level and draws inside. Unknown driver James Molitor at the controls.
4 - LITTLE MORE RAM (6/1)
Seems to always be in the mix at this level. Does not win all that often. Can be part of this with the right trip.
9 - PALMER (8/1)
Form appears to be tailing off. Pass for now.
6 - OUR CHIP-E (15/1)
Lackluster form. Has not won a race in ages. Pass.
7 - DRAGON ON DEMAND (15/1)
Has not been competitive lately. Hardly ever wins. Pass.
2 - FOX VALLEY DOMINO (10/1) *** Winner: $24.20 $7.40 $4.20; 2-3 Exacta $81.80 ***
Liked him last week and he came through with a nice win from the eight post. Moves up in class, but moves inside. Looks like he has some ability. Like him right back at another big price.
3 - BET ON ART (5/2)
Probable favorite returns from HOP, where he faced some rugged foes and held his own. Raced well here back in early April. Has speed and will be tough to collar.
6 - SS MIGHTY I SCOOT (3/1)
Returns after competing in a series at HOP. Did not do all that well, but was well bet in each of his three races. Was a runaway winner last time he raced here.
1 - MIGHTY OAK PERFECT (6/1)
Flashed some speed in last at BMP. Speed and rail always good on this oval. Figures to be in the mix here.
5 - DIAMOND JACK'S ACE (15/1)
Makes third start after layoff. Been close in each of his first two races of the year. Could be rounding into form and would expect him to be a factor.
8 - REVY REVRAC (4/1)
Gets Oosting back, but the far outside post might be too much for this guy. Pass.
4 - OBERMEIERZILLA (8/1)
Has not been able to beat claimers lately. Doubt he beats these.
7 - C R JACKPOT (12/1)
Has not raced in over a month. Not a good sign. Tough post. Pass for now.
3 - DICK MCTRACY (9/2) *** Winner: $10.80 $4.40 $4.60 ***
Liked this guy last week, but he had no chance against the Ice Man. There's no Ice Man to deal with here. He's also making third start back from a layoff for the rock solid Seekman barn. Horse has class and I expect it to show. Would love to get the 9/2 morning odds here.
6 - SEAWIND GAMBLER (8/1)
Despite recent dull form, this guy looks dangerous. Faced tougher out at HOP and held his own against much better horses here earlier in the year. An aggressive Roberts drive could wake this guy up. Price play to consider.
7 - PAPA BRIAN (15/1)
Gets another driver tonight. Has had issues in last two races. With an clean race, this guy has every right to contend.
1 - ANOTHER BEAUTY (5/2)
Has hit the board in ten straight races. With the rail, he should be in the money yet again.
9 - ONCE A CHEATER (6/1)
Has been holding his own against some tough horses at HOP and BMP in recent weeks. This one appears to fit well against this group. Does not win all that often.
4 - NATURAL LAD N (7/2)
Speed horse figures to be on the lead. Has not held off a field in quite some time, but he could be good enough to hang on for a slice.
2 - ZELLER'S ISLAND (15/1)
Broke at the start and lost all chance against cheaper in last. Gets Oosting tonight, but he appears a bit overmatched and is hard to trust.
8 - SOME OR LIS (12/1)
This one continues to struggle for top connections. Need to see something before investing here. Pass for now.
5 - JOEZEHRLOVESJOHNNY (15/1)
Has not been close in quite some time. Pass.
5 - THISWAYORTHEHIGHWY (2/1) *** Winner: $4.20 $3.00 $2.20 ***
Fought all the way to the wire and almost lasted in a start he probably needed. Will be tighter tonight. Competed in stakes races as two year old. Does not have much to deal with in here.
2 - HUGGY BEAR (5/2)
Showed good speed and raced well last week. Makes third start of the year tonight. Upswing likely to continue. Should have good early spot and is the only legit threat to the top pick. The 2-5 exacta box looks like it can't miss...
3 - SHOTGUN BOB (5/1)
Shows speed at times. Recent races on the dull side, but looks the best of the rest.
7 - FRESHMAN PHENONOM (9/2)
Makes first start of the year tonight. Probably needs a race. Tough post. Watch for now.
1 - SHADY MAPLE BULLET (15/1)
Despite the rail, this one appears way overmatched. Pass.
4 - CLASSIFIED INFO (12/1)
Looks overmatched here. Lone win was against cheaper. Pass.
6 - OYOUHOTTHANG (8/1)
Makes 2012 debut. Was not very competitive against cheaper last year. Pass.
8 - MIDWEST CONNECTION (15/1)
Another making first start of 2012. Was not very competitive toward the end of last year.
4 - LA CABANA (10/1)
This guy made a huge move last week before flattening out. Looks like he might be sitting on a big race. Move inside from the eight post surely helps cause. Trainer Affrunti has been hot. Long shot with a chance.
3 - FOX VALLEY SEE YA (12/1)
Made a bold move in last and finished a respectable third from the seven post. Horse has done well for Marcus. This guy figures here and the 12/1 morning line is tasty.
5 - JUST THE WAY ITIS (7/2)
Hung on to win his second in a row last week. Has a solid record, hitting the board in his last seven tries. Logical choice will be tough to beat again.
6 - RIO'S Z TAM (3/1)
Responded in a big way for new connections. Was well-bet and rewarded backers with an easy win. Will have to work a little harder from here, but if last is any indicator, this one will be a factor.
1 - THE JANITOR (4/1)
Gets rail and Oosting. Likes to win his share. Figures prominently here.
9 - WES MANTOOTH (6/1)
Has a good record in his own right and there's no reason to think he won't be competitive here. With a well-timed move, he's right there.
2 - SAMMOBRAND WILLOW (15/1)
Looks like he has excuses for last two. Not a frequent winner, but appears to fit well with these. Shot at a slice.
7 - SPORTS SCOOTER (15/1)
Can be competitive at times, but this is a pretty rough group of four claimers. Tough post. Pass for now.
8 - SENTIMENTALJOURNEY (8/1)
Returns after a layoff. Probably needs a race.
8 - LETSGETREADYTRUMBL (15/1)
Just can't quit this guy. He's either been close or had an excuse in last several races. New driver tonight. Faces easier. Eight post is a drag, but if we can get a decent pace and reasonable position, perhaps tonight will finally be the night he lights up the board.
7 - SPIRITUAL KING N (8/1)
Went one of the more impressive miles that you're ever going to see last week. Was parked out to swift fractions and still drew off in the stretch. If driver Todd Warren can inspire that kind of effort again, this one will be awfully tough to beat.
3 - COLEFEDERATE (3/1)
Faced a much tougher group last time out. Much better spot here. Trainer Millman and Oosting make for a great combo. Has a terrific shot to pick up his seventh win of the year.
1 - SWEEET TALKIN TOM (5/2)
Makes debut for new connections. Trainer has been winning at good clip. Horse likes to win, rail also a plus. Will be tough here.
2 - RED RIVER RESTLESS (7/2)
Last two races on the dull side. Is typically competitive at with these. Has some early foot. Maybe use underneath.
5 - LARRY'S PLACE (6/1)
Comes back to the claiming ranks. Is usually close and, if he can carve out a nice second over trip, can be right there.
4 - LAWSUIT (10/1)
Takes on tougher after a nice win last week. Not sure if he's quite good enough to beat these. Pass tonight.
6 - JOSTING JACK (12/1)
Snapped a long losing streak last week off a ground saving trip. Will have his work cut out for him out here. Hard to see lightning striking twice in a row for this guy.
2 - FINE ART MINDALE (3/1) *** Winner: $5.60 $3.00 $2.60; 2-4 Exacta $11.00 ***
Road trouble last week cost her as she would up getting parked the mile. Can give the benefit of the doubt to this Seekman trainee. Classy sort will be tough to beat in this spot.
4 - MO VALLEY MAGGIE (7/2)
DQ'd last week after another dazzling race. Will blast for the lead and be extremely tough to catch.
9 - LYFSLYKABOXACHOCLT (8/1)
Has been competitive lately and should have the position to contend here. Can grab a slice.
5 - DAZZLING DIANA (10/1)
Seeking third straight win here. Prefers the lead, but probably will not get there tonight. Not sure if she can get there going first-over.
1 - STARDOM BOUND (9/2)
Steps up after beating easier last week. Should get another good trip, but she will need her best to beat these. Gimmick possibility.
3 - HELEN'S PLACE GIRL (6/1)
Scratched sick last time out. Never a good sign. Is a solid mare when right. Pass for now.
6 - THEDAYYOUHAVEMADE (12/1)
Nice win in last against easier. Tough spot out here. Appears overmatched.
7 - FREAKN FRIDAY (15/1)
Returns after layoff. Has a respectable record, but probably needs a race or two. Pass for now.
8 - CHALLENGE MY HEART (15/1)
Appears to fit well against these, but the post is probably too much to overcome here. Pass.
6 - TAMARAC SASSY (10/1)
Looks like a good spot for this gal. She might have a hot pace to close into and if the speed falters, this one might pick up the pieces. Legit shot to pull off the upset.
5 - MAKIN' A STATEMENT (3/1)
Been setting the pace out at BMP for the last few weeks. Her speed suits this oval well and she will be on the engine right from the start. Has eleven wins here and will be tough to catch.
1 - I KILL TIME (9/5)
Was parked out last time out and faded as the heavy favorite in last on 4/13. Should have a much easier trip from here. Looks like a solid contender.
4 - CHEESE PLUMPER (4/1)
Outside posts in last two have hurt the Plumper. She does her best work up close and tonight we could see a more aggressive drive.
8 - FINAL ATTRIBUTE (15/1)
Can be competitive with these, but the post keeps me from liking her more. Outside shot at the money.
7 - LITTLE SWEETHEART (15/1)
Held off easier last week and picked up an overdue victory. Tough task from out here. Pass for now.
3 - BLUEBIRD REGAL (6/1)
Finished second, but was awarded the win as a result of a disqualification. Takes on tougher here and looks overmatched.
2 - EPONA (8/1)
Appears overmatched here. Pass for now.
7 - KAYDON BEGONE (6/1) *** Winner: $24.80 $6.80 $4.20; 7-8 Exacta: $56.60 ***
My pick in a very tough race. This guy has been facing much tougher in recent weeks at BMP and HOP. Has won the last three times he raced on this oval. Could pick up the pieces if a hot pace develops.
8 - FORT SILKY (5/2)
The Silky one is always a tough foe. Will likely seek the early lead and possibly duke it out with the Ice Man. Certainly classy enough to get the win. Just worry about the post.
1 - DELCO WILLOBEE (4/1)
Talented ICF gelding makes his 2012 debut off sparkling qualifier. Probably needs a start, but the rail will keep him in contention and he might be good enough to win right out of the box.
3 - ICE MAN COMET'H (3/1)
Was amazing last week as he demolished softer company. Likes the lead and if he can bring it like he did last week, he'll be tough to catch.
4 - TURN IT UP LOUD (15/1)
Two race win streak snapped by Warrawee Lad last time out. He's usually in the mix and can be a part of this with the right trip.
5 - FIVE COUGARS A (8/1)
Wired an easier field last week and earns a hike in class. Gets top driver Oosting. Is surely in great form and can be a major player here with a good early spot.
6 - PICASSOS BOY (10/1)
Perfect trip and came up just short last week against easier. Much tougher spot here. Needs things to go his way. Not impossible.
2 - JUDSON DIRECTOR (12/1)
Broke stride last time and was never in it. Previous form at Maywood makes this guy a contender. If he stays flat, he could grab a slice of this.
7 - CINNAMON SPIDER (20/1)
Found himself too far back in last two races. Made up a ton of ground last week to grab third. This guy has the potential to blow up the tote board with striking position and a well timed move. Been playing him for weeks and will stick with the Spider again.
4 - LAZY LIZARD (5/2)
Handled cheaper at BMP in last. Is razor sharp and wants the front. Trainer is hot. This one might be good enough to pass this test.
6 - MISCHIEF MAN (4/1)
Went a big mile from the eight post in last. Making third start off the layoff tonight. Will make presence felt and has a big shot from here.
2 - ANESCAPE N (3/1)
Could not get it done last week from the rail as the heavy favorite. Has the ability, just can't quite get over the hump. He'll probably find a way to just miss again.
8 - AT MAX SPEED (20/1)
Another interesting long shot. Despite the brutal post, the switch to Oosting can be huge. Has proven to be competent at this level in the past and has eleven lifetime wins at this track.
9 - FINN JET (15/1)
Was not far off in last and should be in better position tonight. Does not win all that often, but can be part of the gimmicks.
1 - RICHARD TRACI (6/1)
Was a non-factor last time out at HOP. Looks a little overmatched here. Rail always helps, but I don't see big things from this guy tonight.
3 - SAMEASITEVERWAS (8/1)
Looked like he started to make a move, but then threw it in reverse. Not sure what happened there. Need to see a better race before endorsing.
5 - DADE HALL (12/1)
Recent form somewhat dull. Pass tonight.
5 - RIVER OF FAITH (3/1)
Road trouble cost him in last. Made a bold move in previous race. Might be rounding into top form and is a major player here.
1 - DONALD HIMSELF (6/1)
Gets much needed post relief tonight. Should see an improved effort out of this guy tonight. Chance to end losing streak.
4 - INNOVATION (10/1)
Has not been far off lately and now gets Oosting. Has 16 lifetime wins here and is not facing a real strong group.
3 - BELL VALLEY BILL (5/2)
Had no chance against a couple tough fields and back to back ten posts at BMP. Much better draw and easier competition tonight. Not a frequent winner, but has to be considered a logical contender for the gimmicks.
8 - INCREDIBLE ITEM (8/1)
Raced very well last week, parked much of the mile. Has a tough assignment from out here. Slim chance.
2 - KING BRUTUS (4/1)
Has not won in quite a while. Broke stride in last. Previous race was dull. Not seeing the 4/1 odds. Looks like an outsider to me.
6 - COLTINS PLACE (15/1)
Appears overmatched from out here. Tough spot. Pass.
7 - LITTLE FISHY (12/1)
Dismal recent form. Rarely wins. Pass.
9 - VENTURA HIGHWAY (8/1)
Returns to Maywood after taking on tougher at HOP. Has done very well here in the past with four wins in eleven lifetime starts on this track.
3 - SPORTY LEVI (9/2)
Won impressively when dropped to this level last time out. A repeat performance could be enough for a repeat trip to the winner's circle.
4 - CHARLIE RUSSELL (10/1)
Raced very well and was second best to the #3 last time out. Could be right there if the trip goes his way.
2 - DO ME BLISS (7/2)
Wired a cheaper group in last. Is in good form and will likely be on the lead. Major threat to go all the way.
1 - GEORGE'S ZTAM (3/1)
Was in contention for a while, then threw it in reverse. Hard to like after that race. Guess you still have to include top driver with the #1 post in the Hi Five.
6 - GUTS N GLORY (6/1)
Went a big race out at HOP in last. Looks like he's capable of a big move, but does not win very often. Could be part of the top five.
8 - SPORTY JOHN (12/1)
Went a big race to get a win at BMP in last. Tough spot here, but hard to completely rule out.
5 - SHASKA (15/1)
Dismal recent form. Rarely wins races.
7 - CRIPPLECREEK FOX (15/1)
Dull form. Tough post.
SNIPPY BINK (1st race)
MY KIND OF TOWNE (3rd race)
THISWAYORTHEHIGHWY (6th race)
LA CABANA (7th race)
TAMARAC SASSY (10th race)
CINNAMON SPIDER (12th race)
Kentucky Derby Play:
DULLAHAN / DADDY NOSE BEST - Exacta Box