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Author Topic: WHO WILL WIN THE PREAKNESS??  (Read 4525 times)
Scott Falkner
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« on: May 19, 2006, 11:54:06 AM »

I LIKE BROTHER DEREK?  ANYBODY ELSE?
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our favorite omen
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2006, 12:04:22 PM »

$6.60 Perfecta payoff - Cold Barbaro/Brother Derek.
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edwarren
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2006, 12:17:10 PM »

Who will win?

Barbaro, Brother Derek.

« Last Edit: May 20, 2006, 11:11:29 AM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
pamwaggy
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2006, 01:51:22 PM »

Bernardini for me as well.  And Berardini and Barbaro used in a pick 4.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2006, 03:00:19 PM »

1. Brother Derek--rebounds with a win
2. Sweetsouthernsaint--atrious trip in derby
3. Barbaro--ran like a wild hoss in Derby
4. Like Now--speed and the wood: Upsetter?

or you could just read Steve Klein in the DRF; who picked the exact same order. Shocked

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2006, 06:55:32 PM »

Barbaro is unbettable at 4-5. Going to use him and Diablical in small pic 4's. Just hope the weather holds up and they get the grass races in. Hit the Niles OTB for lunch and the Billy Club $7.95 was worth it. Tons of people at 1PM but vey little betting and one familiar Arlington face. However he was going to the park later. See some of you tomorrow and JF I've gotten a hold of 6 phonebooks 24 passes so far. Need to find a friendly hotel maid LOL.
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Turn the page.......
big wally
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2006, 07:55:17 PM »

Barbaro will not be on any of tickets.... He may win but he is not worth the price... As Elmer Polzin use to write "can make no mistakes"....
« Last Edit: May 19, 2006, 08:02:25 PM by big wally » Report to moderator   Logged
VJRNR
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2006, 08:27:25 PM »

I honestly see Barbaro doing no worse than second. That being said I'm going to choose Greeley's Legacy- who has no chance, but I'm a longshot bettor so it makes perfect sense.
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big wally
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2006, 08:48:18 PM »

I honestly see Barbaro doing no worse than second. That being said I'm going to choose Greeley's Legacy- who has no chance, but I'm a longshot bettor so it makes perfect sense.

I am sorry to tell you I will also use Greeley's legacy
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2006, 09:39:41 PM »

Barbaro..my trifecta pick is:

6 with 5/7/8 with ALL

my exacta bet is:

6 with 5/7/8

back-up trifecta is 5/7/8 with 6 with 5/7/8

back-up exacta is 5/7/8 with 6
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glahn
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2006, 11:50:04 PM »

The exacta 6/5,7,8 will pay, if it ends up 6/5, peanuts. You'd be better off to take a stand. Or structure them such that you're betting $6 6/5, $4 6/7, $2 6/8, you know?

As for me, I already bet a 7/6 exacta and three times as much on the 6/7. If I have a decent time with AP tomorrow I might bet some 6/7,8/7,8 tris.
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INTERESTED OBSERVER
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2006, 03:25:11 AM »

I will take a price with LIKE NOW... 
(what do I know... I'm a harness player...  Cheesy )

As a few others posted... no value at all with BARBARO.

Is he really "that good"? We'll all know around 5pm Saturday...  Shocked
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threegoodlegsst
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2006, 03:51:37 AM »

Oh ye of little faith!
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Ponyplayr
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2006, 12:28:46 PM »

Barbaro Will win this race.
I'm going with a 6-4 Exata.. 6-4-1 Tri..6-4-1-9 Super
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Stat Man Steve
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2006, 12:57:07 PM »

Barbaro should win.  Remember, you heard it here 98th. 
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vcackerman
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2006, 02:27:40 PM »

I just think that Brother Derek got the trip from hell in Louisville a la Afleet Alex last year and while he ran empty in the drive, he had to be some horse to get a check.   With the small field, I see him lying close and getting the jump on Barbaro  and holding him off late.   

1 - Brother Derek
2 - Barbaro
3- Diabolical
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Moon
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2006, 03:57:14 PM »

Yeah, Brother Derek has a good shot.
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Moon
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2006, 04:04:17 PM »

Joe Kelly with the call to the post!!!

/And very well done!!

 
 
 
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Moon
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2006, 04:19:14 PM »

Quick!!! Run to the window! Barbaro broke through the gate!!
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Moon
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2006, 04:20:18 PM »

Oh NOES!!! Barbaro PULLED UP!!!
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Moon
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2006, 04:21:41 PM »

Brother Derek might as well have pulled up!

WTF???
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vcackerman
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2006, 04:22:38 PM »

That didn't look good when NBC flipped over to see Barbaro.   That leg looked in bad shape.    Have to give Edgar Prado credit.  He may have saved the horse's life.

Great race by Bernadini.
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Moon
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2006, 04:24:15 PM »

That looked UGLY on replay.
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vcackerman
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« Reply #23 on: May 20, 2006, 04:25:30 PM »

Reminds me a little bit of Go For Wand breaking down in the BC Distaff against Bayakoa.   The horse only knows how to run and he wanted to keep going.   
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Moon
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« Reply #24 on: May 20, 2006, 04:27:31 PM »

He sure did want to keep going! Edgar had to practically stand on him to get him stopped.
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vcackerman
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« Reply #25 on: May 20, 2006, 05:44:00 PM »

Initial reports are not promising for Barbaro - he's got breaks above and below the ankle and the blood supply might be cut off to the foot.  He's being rushed as we speak to U Penn's Vet School for surgery.   God willing, he'll be able to see Sunday and beyond.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #26 on: May 20, 2006, 07:15:59 PM »

Initial reports are not promising for Barbaro - he's got breaks above and below the ankle and the blood supply might be cut off to the foot.  He's being rushed as we speak to U Penn's Vet School for surgery.   God willing, he'll be able to see Sunday and beyond.

Hopefully they can save him for Stud duty. Embarrassed
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vcackerman
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« Reply #27 on: May 20, 2006, 07:19:29 PM »

Hopefully to live the good life....bringing home 100+fillies and mares a year.  dude
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glahn
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« Reply #28 on: May 20, 2006, 08:43:11 PM »

You know, before the Derby I joked with a friend that Derek would run 4th. Today I almost played a superfecta keying him in 4th. 3 races outside of CA, 3 4th place finishes.

I don't know what people saw in this horse. He beat a couple small soft fields on his home track while all alone on the lead. He belongs in Cal-bred races or optional claimers at best.
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Stat Man Steve
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« Reply #29 on: May 20, 2006, 08:46:06 PM »

I'd be happy just to see Barbaro get a normal life on a farm.  Hard for some to stand stud on bad hind legs.  Hope a lack of Stud Duty alone doesn't affect their decisions to save him.  Gee, he only earned a couple million dollars for them, though I know this is a business too.
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vcackerman
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« Reply #30 on: May 20, 2006, 09:49:09 PM »

Updated info from bloodhorse.com

According to Dr. Larry Bramlage, a prominent equine surgeon with the American Association of Equine Practitioners, Barbaro suffered a condylar fracture of the cannon bone in his right hind leg above the ankle. Below the ankle is a comminuted fracture (meaning it is in pieces) of the first phalanx (long pastern bone) and there is a piece off the sesamoid.


That doesn't sound very promising.......
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Trackman
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« Reply #31 on: May 20, 2006, 10:07:50 PM »

"That doesn't sound very promising......."

Sounds absolutely horrible! I hate to say it but I think it sounds fatal. I remember Ruffian and they tried their best to save her. She kept rehurting herself by thrashing around. You have to think that veterinary medicine has made great strides since then (35-40 years ago?). But horses remain their own worst enemies when they're hurt. I hope to God that I'm wrong on this one. C'mon Barbaro!
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threegoodlegsst
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« Reply #32 on: May 21, 2006, 05:27:10 AM »

If he can show he has a hero's heart it is now that it is needed!
Have a vet friend who writes for different pubs and said this is a very very dismal set of breaks.  She sent the info below:

Barbaro suffered a condylar fracture of the cannon bone (by itself
often not life-threatening) and a shattered pastern bone (always
life-threatening). Furthermore, they often demand rather different
treatment. The cannon fracture would normally be repaired with a few
screws. Shattered pasterns are plated if few enough and big enough
fragments, otherwise they are casted and a pin put through the cast
and through the cannon bone (maybe not possible in this case since
the cannon bone is also fractured.)

A really, really, dicey situation.

 Cry
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Tsunami
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« Reply #33 on: May 21, 2006, 07:14:30 AM »

"That doesn't sound very promising......."

Sounds absolutely horrible! I hate to say it but I think it sounds fatal. I remember Ruffian and they tried their best to save her. She kept rehurting herself by thrashing around. You have to think that veterinary medicine has made great strides since then (35-40 years ago?). But horses remain their own worst enemies when they're hurt. I hope to God that I'm wrong on this one. C'mon Barbaro!

well said trackman

I too remember Ruffian and it was the only time I had wept for a horse, this one with Barbaro came a close second, I really thought he had the makings of a great horse (bulk,heart and stamina).

Not to throw stones but how closely did the vet check him out after he broke through the starting gate?
I see on HRTV with the Aussie races they actually show the vet looking over the horse thoroughly it didn`t appear to me the vet even looked at the horse they just threw him back in the starting gate.

I know it`s all water under the bridge at this point but maybe for future races.

I wish Barbaro and his connections a speedy recovery!

 

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Trackman
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« Reply #34 on: May 21, 2006, 07:47:44 AM »

Tsunami,

"Not to throw stones but how closely did the vet check him out after he broke through the starting gate?"

I didn't see the vet check him at all! I mentioned to friends as he was headed back toward the gate that the other horses would have to stand in the gate for awhile or even be backed out while Barbaro was thoroughly examined. I've seen 4K claimers get a better look at AP.

At best, there was a cursory look while he was reloaded. I think pressure from Television to get the race off in their slotted time and the desire not to disappoint the connections and hundreds of thousands of fans also contributed.

We'll never know if a closer exam would have gotten Barbaro scratched and prevented the injury. I don't pretend to know but I would like to have seen more attention given to the horse. Let's pray he makes it and sires several stakes winners down the line.

There are a lot of people rooting for you, Barbaro.

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warden
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« Reply #35 on: May 21, 2006, 07:54:36 AM »

that is exactly what horse racing is and always was and will be at the highest levels. when they spend hundreds of thousands and even millions on buying or breeding a champion each year , yet when you only see 9 of a crop of thousands left by the 2nd race early in their 3 yo year, just what do you think happened to all the others? too slow? get real! they broke most of those others down, but that happened in the mornings with no worldwide tv.

when for example, a d wayne lukas has owners buy 200 yearlings for prices i mentioned, he has no intention if the horse is too slow of dropping him into a claiming race where just some other trainer might claim the horse and possibly improve the horse by a different method of training, knowing full well it will make him look bad to his own owner and to other owners that another trainer moved a horse up on him. lukas and these other people only care about champions. and he will purposely train the horse into the ground until he is either too lame to ever heal or be destroyed if he does not become the horse he was bought or bred for.

this incident yesterday was no exception, we see it almost every year in big races whether it be go for wand, barbaro, breeders cup sprints,etc or even the preakness again where just a few years ago the favorite prairie bayou broke his leg and was destroyed.
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warden
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« Reply #36 on: May 21, 2006, 07:57:59 AM »

re: not checked by vet after breaking thru the gate

you are exactly right

but remember bramledge is just on government employee with a vets degree living of the taxpayer

most likely he was not competant enough to really enter the profesion
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warden
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« Reply #37 on: May 21, 2006, 08:04:33 AM »

in derby on before race they said it was alkl quiet at all the derby contenders stalls as all horses walked EXCEPT barbara who matz himself strongly galloped a mile and a half around the track the morning of the derby.

this horse did not break down just easily galloping out of the gate, before or even in race. he did not even appear to stumble before.

the final straw of matz's butcher like training that broke the camels back was seen on tv, but matz broke this horse down in the mornings.
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Trackman
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« Reply #38 on: May 21, 2006, 08:36:47 AM »

Warden,

"yet when you only see 9 of a crop of thousands left by the 2nd race early in their 3 yo year, just what do you think happened to all the others? too slow?"

Mostly agree with you but think of how many kids born in any given year grow up with dreams of being pro baseball, football, basketball, hockey or soccer players when the reality is less than 1% make it to the big leagues. They don't break down, they're just not good enough.
 
I think it's the same with crops of horses. I won't argue your statements about D. Wayne

The Kentucky Derby has become a weeding out process. Twenty horses, at least half of them having no business being there, are entered in the Derby. But their rich owners are willing to take their shot at glory (reminds me of Illinois Day when any Ill bred who can walk to the track is entered in the races).

Yeah, you'll get your occassional Giacomos but they show their true colors by never winning another race.

By the time the Preakness rolls around, reality sets in and the field is cut in half.

At Belmont time, there is an infusion of new (fresh), late-develping horses. Sunriver, who was excluded from the Derby and chose not to run in the Preakness seems to me like the probable favorite.

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nwaryas
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« Reply #39 on: May 21, 2006, 08:45:41 AM »

Trackman, the crops of 3yr old horses are just thinning out. No more good quality derby horses are coming in. I have noticed this in the past few years. We will have a horse BOOM! and when it happens look out!
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warden
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« Reply #40 on: May 21, 2006, 08:48:27 AM »

"Mostly agree with you but think of how many kids born in any given year grow up with dreams of being pro baseball, football, basketball, hockey or soccer players when the reality is less than 1% make it to the big leagues. They don't break down, they're just not good enough."

yes, but they go do something else maybe like work for a lower paying job. their parents dont work them into the ground until they break down and have to be killed. because their parents only wanted a pro sports star.
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warden
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« Reply #41 on: May 21, 2006, 08:59:19 AM »

bramledge made sure he said on tv later last nite that the injury had nothing to do with breaking thru the gate prior to the race

seems like he was already covering his own government behind to me

how does he know it did not occur whilw the horse was acting up just before he broke thru ther first time. bramlede never even checked horse , he never asked jock to dismount and look at him close before reloading. this was no cheap claiming 10th race on the card on a thursday night.


i know 1 thing fpr sure the damage to that horse was done prior to when he pulled up during the race. whether matz 99% broke him down in training or if in gate before or more likely a combination of both.
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David
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« Reply #42 on: May 21, 2006, 09:53:39 AM »

I thought the warden was supposed to be the moderator and the voice of reason on this board, not the one spouting a bunch of typical libelous bullshit.
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edwarren
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« Reply #43 on: May 21, 2006, 11:10:15 AM »

General Electric, NBC, Magna, Budweiser and the sponsors got what they wanted - a horse race.

Now, can we please cut to a commercial.
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