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Author Topic: Derby Thoughts/Picks Thread 6 days out  (Read 2088 times)
hungry
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« Reply #50 on: May 03, 2012, 03:56:48 PM »

Great stuff Bob and HV, excellent writeups!

HV, i love your 'anti' handicapping theories on Trinniberg, although i'm going to live dangerously and toss him off all my tickets, i can see your logic here, he's going to be out there winging...and if you follow the sport, and i know you do, horses like this quite often just hang on for a piece at the end. If he can actually get to the top of the lane in front, he's got a decent shot to hang on for something.....Trinn's goal is to not get passed on the far turn, if he can turn for home in front, he might just shock the world.


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NIATROSS
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« Reply #51 on: May 03, 2012, 03:59:03 PM »

HV,

I am going to have to set you down for a real heart to heart before you bet this Derby.
If you really feel the need to waste money bet a Powerball or Mega Millions Ticket instead of wasting ANY money on Trinneberg especially on a fast track.

One of The very same reasons you are tossing Bodemesiter applies here.
No foundation.Never been beyond  7 furlongs has yet to win carrying more than 120#.

NO WAY THIS HORSE FINISHES IN THE TOP 10 SATURDAY.
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« Reply #52 on: May 03, 2012, 04:40:44 PM »

One of The very same reasons you are tossing Bodemesiter applies here.
No foundation.Never been beyond  7 furlongs has yet to win carrying more than 120#.

No, not the same thing. What you call "foundation" is likely to be WAY different from how I look at it.

Trinniberg has a decent enough foundation of races at 2 years old. He raced at speed and went through a series of racing and spacing that helps make a young horse's leg bones much more dense than if they just lay around the farm and grow; we know Baffert was breezing Bodemeister at 2, but there is no substitute for actual live racing.

And look at what happened with Trinniberg: after a modest two year old campaign where he was stakes-placed twice, he was put away for the winter, then came out *breathing fire* -- that is pretty strong evidence that his two year old campaign was a success, even if he hasn't been past 7 furlongs.

Regarding the weight carried, that's just more hair-splitting on something NONE of these horses have been asked to do yet: carry 126 lbs at 10 furlongs. Heck, only one horse has carried over 123, ever: Daddy Long Legs, and he's not getting any special attention because of it. Any healthy 3 year old should be able to carry 126 lbs without falling apart.

If Trinniberg wins Saturday, I will be as shocked as anyone...but I've seen too many speedballs get brave and hang around much longer than expected to not have him on a FEW tickets. Don't know if you've noticed, 'Tross, but today's thorobred is built for speed, speed, and more speed...the stoutness of the old distance runners is all but gone from the U.S. racehorse.

Nobody can really predict with any certainty what Trinniberg can or can't do beyond 7 furlongs -- this creates a classic "X-Factor" handicapping situation, and if you were putting in as much money as I am on Saturday, you'd buy a little X-Factor Insurance.  Wink
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glahn
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« Reply #53 on: May 03, 2012, 04:53:18 PM »

If you really feel the need to waste money bet a Powerball or Mega Millions Ticket instead of wasting ANY money on Trinneberg especially on a fast track.

NO WAY THIS HORSE FINISHES IN THE TOP 10 SATURDAY.

Just wanted to make sure we have this recorded, in the case the original post mysteriously disappears after Trinneberg hangs on for a piece.

Also, take note that his best races were on a fast track, and his poorest performances on an off one, so I'm not sure what form you're reading NIATROSS.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #54 on: May 03, 2012, 04:58:32 PM »

HV, i love your 'anti' handicapping theories on Trinniberg, although i'm going to live dangerously and toss him off all my tickets, i can see your logic here, he's going to be out there winging...and if you follow the sport, and i know you do, horses like this quite often just hang on for a piece at the end. If he can actually get to the top of the lane in front, he's got a decent shot to hang on for something.....Trinn's goal is to not get passed on the far turn, if he can turn for home in front, he might just shock the world.

Listen, I know what a hard horse Trinniberg is to sell. I've heard everyone in the WORLD say "Toss this piece of sh*t!!"...but wait a minute! WE DON'T KNOW YET WHAT THIS HORSE CAN OR CAN'T DO!

He may very well be a GIANT P.O.S...but we simply don't know that yet, and I'll be damned if I am going to completely throw out a horse that just ran SOLID TG 1.5's back to back, even if it is at "only" 7 furlongs!

And, right or wrong, somewhere up in Handicapping Heaven, I know ol' Pittsburgh Phil is smiling down on me, simply for moving "unilaterally against the crowd", as he so often recommended. That's enough for me -- I'm just going to smile at the naysayers for now.  Smiley
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #55 on: May 03, 2012, 05:07:34 PM »

Just wanted to make sure...

Holy Hell, look who they just popped out of cryogenic storage!  dude

How are you?

(Careful with your response -- I see that you have already exhausted 1/2 of your annual posting allotment...and it's only May...wow!)
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glahn
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« Reply #56 on: May 03, 2012, 05:21:33 PM »

Some thoughts, organized by post position:

Euro showed nothing on dirt in lone try. Might use in 4th spot of supers if they have dime supers.

D.Wayne's horse ran one deceptively big race and although his horses can sometimes surprise, this is out of his league. Toss.

Last July 30th I said Take Charge Indy would win the Derby. A bold call and I'm actually amazed that I made a call that early and the horse is actually in the starting gate. I think the race is wide open excepting one possible scenario (detailed below), but with the 3 post and Borel and a possible 15-1 payout I would still make him my top selection. I have heard people talk about how he's going to get burned up in a pace duel, and I shake my head incredulously. This horse won't be on the lead unless no one else wants to go, just like in Florida.

Union Rags will be overbet, but has a legitimate shot.

Dale likes his horse, but contrary to what someone else here said, his dirt races haven't been in the least bit worthy of a Derby horse. Not terrible by any means, but not this caliber.

The possible scenario mentioned above is Bodemeister dominating this field. It's a question mark. Not quite a coin flip, but if the horse is the real deal and performs like it, 4-1 will seem like a gift. That said, the horses that ran in the older Grade 1 race at Oaklawn a full second slower than Bode weren't all that good. Yes, there was the Donn winner and the Big Cap winner, but the best older horses from a very terrible pool of older horses weren't even there. Also one must take into account the pace of those respective races. But again, who knows, this horse just might wow us, or might throw a clunker.

Not sure what to make of Rousing Sermon, and I'm not sure Hollendorfer does either.

Creative Cause will bounce hard and won't hit the board.

Trinniberg isn't the automatic toss people think, though he certainly lacks breeding and distance credentials. At a huge price and with his speed I can't completely eliminate him (speed is very important, obviously), and though I think it's INCREDIBLY likely that he fades late, I don't think it's so likely that I have to toss him at 50 or 60 to 1.

Daddy Nose Best is peaking at the right time but seems a cut below and I don't think Scat Daddy's are particularly adept at 10F.

Alpha I liked in the Juvenile last year, he has a good running style and he definitely has the breeding. I think he has some physical issues though. Question mark.

Prospective raced at Tampa, which I like, but he didn't train there, which is disappointing because that track gets horses good and fit. Not sure what happened in his last, but his Tampa races were very nice. If he rebounds from that last performance he could be in the mix at big odds.

Went The Day Well won a maiden and a Turfway Park G3. Toss.

Hansen was rank in his last workout. If the horse is right, he's going to be a tough one in this race, and I would say that so long as he isn't rank or goofy he's the most likely contender to finish in the money. He can just keep on running and has some good breeding to boot. That said, he hasn't really improved all that much over the year.

Gemologist undefeated, and Reverend Walden says he's Winstar's best shot ever in this race, including Super Saver. Hard to dismiss.

El Padrino is confusing.

Done Talking might pick up pieces at big odds, with a great late running style, good 2yo seasoning, and good form cycles.

Sabercat appears a cut below.

I'll Have Another has back issues but a very capable trainer. Another question mark.

I don't know what to make of Liaison's 3yo campaign.

My Adonis is a cut below.

So to summarize:

If Bodemeister is what he could be, it's all over. If not, I'd key on Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Hansen and Gemologist, or at least 2 of those 4, with possible longshots, primarily underneath, being Trinniberg, Prospective and Done Talking.

This is if the track is fast or reasonably fast. If it's a bog I can't bet, and if it's sticky I'd have to go with whoever has the mud experience and breeding.
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glahn
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« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2012, 05:24:01 PM »

WE DON'T KNOW YET WHAT THIS HORSE CAN OR CAN'T DO!

Best way to beat the races. When everyone is betting on what is known (i.e. speed figures, obvious troubled trips, etc. etc.), project what is unknown (i.e. horse going long for the first time or trying grass for the first time with the appropriate breeding, trainer adding blinks and stretching out with proven positive ROI track record in that move, etc.). Granted, this horse's breeding is certainly not suited to this race, but when the whole world says "Toss" and there are numerous uncertainties, I just have to include, at least a little bit.
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hungry
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« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2012, 05:32:21 PM »

Listen, I know what a hard horse Trinniberg is to sell. I've heard everyone in the WORLD say "Toss this piece of sh*t!!"...but wait a minute! WE DON'T KNOW YET WHAT THIS HORSE CAN OR CAN'T DO!

He may very well be a GIANT P.O.S...but we simply don't know that yet, and I'll be damned if I am going to completely throw out a horse that just ran SOLID TG 1.5's back to back, even if it is at "only" 7 furlongs!

And, right or wrong, somewhere up in Handicapping Heaven, I know ol' Pittsburgh Phil is smiling down on me, simply for moving "unilaterally against the crowd", as he so often recommended. That's enough for me -- I'm just going to smile at the naysayers for now.  Smiley

The  best way to 'invest' in Trinn is to bet him in exotics. The win pool in the Derby since the 'Giacomo incident' has really shown that the longest shots in the race are WAY overbet to win. If Hero to Honor (or whatever his name is) was 99-1 in the LA Derby, than Trinn should be 99-1 in the Ky Derby. You deserve at least 99-1 if you get this horse home first....BUT, since its the Derby, every horse takes money, this guy might be under 50-1....BUT, in exotics, he might be much longer.

While Trinn appears to be a 'sprinter' he's a freaking powerful horse, you can watch his tapes and see the power this horse has, this is a SERIOUS horse.

With all that said, he's probably going to be pressured into the ground by the hansen/bode brigade and lose by 40...but, like i said, i do love your approach, you can never really go wrong betting on horses that are this talented and this long in price.

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glahn
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« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2012, 05:33:45 PM »

Holy Hell, look who they just popped out of cryogenic storage!  dude

How are you?

(Careful with your response -- I see that you have already exhausted 1/2 of your annual posting allotment...and it's only May...wow!)

I'm okay. Just don't have time for the bickering and name-calling and whatnot that usually occurs on internet forums.

Excited for AP to start because aside from Tampa that's where the vast bulk of my wagering occurs, though I'm quite upset about the fields and Churchill/Dick D fiasco for opening weekend. I made it out to the Illinois Derby and was actually sitting next to the owners of Done Talking. It was the first time I had been to Haw in many, many years and did some walking around to take it all in. My has it changed. Nothing at all like the dark, dirty place feared by the northwest suburbanites on this forum.

Didn't manage to get to Keeneland this spring, marking the first meet in the last 7 that I haven't been able to go for at least a weekend. I did, however, manage to ride my bicycle and camp around the Adirondacks last autumn, which trip culminated in Saratoga for the last weekend of the meet. That was the first time I had been there since I was a little kid, and it's even more mesmerizing and enchanting than I remember (especially since I can now go to the fancy restaurant and get a bottle of wine, which I couldn't do two decades ago). Plus the Adirondack Park is pretty magnificent, and the biking part of it was fantastic on the west side of the park where there were very few cars and little development aside from the old industry towns that were now home to a shrinking populations.

How are things with you?
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #60 on: May 03, 2012, 05:44:02 PM »

Just wanted to make sure we have this recorded, in the case the original post mysteriously disappears after Trinneberg hangs on for a piece.

Also, take note that his best races were on a fast track, and his poorest performances on an off one, so I'm not sure what form you're reading NIATROSS.

As much as I like to gloat when I am right I have no problem taking a beating when I come wrong.

I am reading the very same past pps' you are.Wet sloppy tracks often produce head scratching results.
I know his best races have been on a fast track but IMO he is simply not good enuff to win this ala Groovy or Zabaleta in 86.

I will reserve you a space at the head of the line either to bash or praise me for my comments.
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glahn
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« Reply #61 on: May 03, 2012, 05:49:34 PM »

As much as I like to gloat when I am right I have no problem taking a beating when I come wrong.

I am reading the very same past pps' you are.Wet sloppy tracks often produce head scratching results.
I know his best races have been on a fast track but IMO he is simply not good enuff to win this ala Groovy or Zabaleta in 86.

I will reserve you a space at the head of the line either to bash or praise me for my comments.

Nice. It's good when people can admit they're wrong. It's been so long, though, that I don't remember who on this forum can do that. My apologies if I've offended you. I think it's highly unlikely that he does anything, but I can't totally eliminate the way I can some others in this race and need to take a contrarian stance in the face of the unknown.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #62 on: May 03, 2012, 07:14:22 PM »

Contenders:

Hansen: it's all up to Dominguez. If he can get Hansen to sit off the speed, be patient and wait for Trinniberg (and maybe Bode) to come back to him, they all ought to all be SO far in front that when Hansen passes the front-runner(s), it's all over. Watch a replay of how Funny Cide won his Derby -- that is the kind of "pocket trip" Dominguez needs to give Hansen to win. (Hansen's chances only go UP if the track is off, even wet-fast.)

Take Charge Indy: goodness, could the draw have helped this one any more than it did? He'll get the trademark rail trip and save every inch of ground under Borel, and have plenty left when the real running begins.

Union Rags: if he's the "Super Horse" everyone thought he was after last Fall, he needs to show it on Saturday. He comes into this with a pair of top efforts, and can win with another top effort; if he improves off those efforts, it's OVER. The only negatives are that he will certainly have to navigate through traffic, and his trainer has been very cold lately...but maybe he's been distracted with this whole Derby thing and getting his horse ready...  Wink

(more in another post...after typing 10 or 15 lines, the text starts jumping around like a f'n jumping bean...wtf is that?  Angry )

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pamwaggy
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« Reply #63 on: May 03, 2012, 07:17:37 PM »

Contenders:

Hansen: it's all up to Dominguez. If he can get Hansen to sit off the speed, be patient and wait for Trinniberg (and maybe Bode) to come back to him, they all ought to all be SO far in front that when Hansen passes the front-runner(s), it's all over. Watch a replay of how Funny Cide won his Derby -- that is the kind of "pocket trip" Dominguez needs to give Hansen to win. (Hansen's chances only go UP if the track is off, even wet-fast.)

Take Charge Indy: goodness, could the draw have helped this one any more than it did? He'll get the trademark rail trip and save every inch of ground under Borel, and have plenty left when the real running begins.

My husband agrees with your tosses copletly and we both like the reasons for the tossing.

I love your picks.  We are using them in a group six horse tri.

Union Rags: if he's the "Super Horse" everyone thought he was after last Fall, he needs to show it on Saturday. He comes into this with a pair of top efforts, and can win with another top effort; if he improves off those efforts, it's OVER. The only negatives are that he will certainly have to navigate through traffic, and his trainer has been very cold lately...but maybe he's been distracted with this whole Derby thing and getting his horse ready...  Wink

(more in another post...after typing 10 or 15 lines, the text starts jumping around like a f'n jumping bean...wtf is that?  Angry )

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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #64 on: May 03, 2012, 08:07:52 PM »

As much as I like to gloat when I am right I have no problem taking a beating when I come wrong.

I will reserve you a space at the head of the line either to bash or praise me for my comments.

I won't be in that line no matter what happens. What I am doing with Trinniberg is -- strictly speaking --a BETTING decision, an offset to the outright unthinkable that would otherwise sink all my tickets...not a handicapping decision.

So, I promise to not gloat nor bash anyone if Trinniberg makes the top 4...nor do I expect to get any guff back if he whiffs. I made Trinniberg an insurance play, not a prime play or a "key". He'll only be on about 10% of my tickets, mostly in the 3rd and 4th slots in tri and super bets (no Hi-5 bets for me). The goal is to recoup most or all of my Derby investment if Trinniberg does hit the ticket; anything extra would be gravy, but not expected.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #65 on: May 03, 2012, 08:11:00 PM »

Good Luck to everyone on their Derby plays

We are all like kids in a candy store at Christmas time only it's May. laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
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pezz97
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« Reply #66 on: May 03, 2012, 08:14:26 PM »

Good Luck to everyone on their Derby plays

We are all like kids in a candy store at Christmas time only it's May. laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
Got that right. i don't wanna go to work tomorrow so I can bet the whole oaks card  bang head bang head bang head. But I have to.

These Derby /Oaks threads have been great, all the different opinions, and just a settle discussion about I don't agree, I agree.

Is it 4pm yet on friday?Huh

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NIATROSS
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« Reply #67 on: May 03, 2012, 08:22:40 PM »

Got that right. i don't wanna go to work tomorrow so I can bet the whole oaks card  bang head bang head bang head. But I have to.

These Derby /Oaks threads have been great, all the different opinions, and just a settle discussion about I don't agree, I agree.

Is it 4pm yet on friday?Huh

Good Luck !

I always have trouble sleeping Oaks and Derby eve.
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DaPaver
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« Reply #68 on: May 03, 2012, 08:51:44 PM »

Any mention of weather for Saturday , hope no storms and a safe run for all!!!!
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pezz97
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« Reply #69 on: May 03, 2012, 08:55:19 PM »

Any mention of weather for Saturday , hope no storms and a safe run for all!!!!
Lets hope they are wrong as usual


Saturday, May 5
Updated: May 3, 2012, 9:10pm EDT

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Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 86F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Day May 5
Scattered T-Storms

86°FHigh

Scattered T-Storms

Chance of rain:
    50%

Wind:
    E at 6 mph

Humidity:
    70%

UV Index:
    8 - Very High

Sunrise:
    6:41 am

Moonphase:
    Waxing Gibbous

    Collapse Details

Night
Partly Cloudy

65°Low

Partly Cloudy
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thoroughbred
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« Reply #70 on: May 03, 2012, 09:28:30 PM »

OK, I've been noodling on these two.

They might not be in the same zip code when the first five horses cross the finish line, but if just ONE of them crashes the ticket, and you have it? You might need a bodyguard to walk you to your car after the racing day is over.

If BOTH of these hit...I want the Pulitzer Prize of Handicapping for 2012.

X-Factor Ticket Crashers

Trinniberg: Why? Because for 70% of the race Saturday, he is the fastest horse in the race -- and yet, the whole handicapping world has dismissed him because "he doesn't have the breeding". And frankly, he doesn't, but I'm calling on one of first things I learned about horse racing: SPEED IS THE UNIVERSAL BIAS. Hey, crazier things have happened, and if the rattiest, slowest piece of shit I've ever seen in a Grade I race can win (Giacomo), whose to say that an exceptionally fast horse with suspect breeding can't run them right off their feet.

Trinninberg probably won't win, OK fine...but can he hang on for a piece? If he does, you might wish you had thrown him on a few tickets...no one, hardly any one is even considering using this guy for 4th. Big successes in this game come from going anti-stat when the price is right.



Went back and was watching Trinniberg's races. Good lord, he went 20 and 4 in the first quarter in the BC Juv Sprint !!!! Hell if the derby doesn't work out for him, maybe they should try the All American Futurity LOL!!! Serioulsy, this is one very impressive looking horse. I would fall off my chair if he won, but I agree it's worth putting him there for 4th on at least a couple of tickets just in case he does hang in there.
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« Reply #71 on: May 03, 2012, 10:11:52 PM »

Good luck to one and all on your wagers.  I've seldom done well on the Derby so I cannot offer any sage advice other than to skip my logic and the horses that I play.   I think No Le Hace was as close as I ever had to a price winner, when he finished second.  Alydar was my horse and I just knew he would win.  Yikes!!!   I remember how wet the track was and unsure I was about Spectacular Bid on a muddy track, the day that he won.   Anybody could make money on Secretariat, but of course I didn't like his low odds.  Even more recently, I just knew Empire maker would win the derby and found little humor in the winner, Funny Cide.   

That all said, I will be playing exotics on "Gemologist, Union Rags and Creative Cause in my top two.   Along with I'll have another, Union Rags, Dullahan, Rousing Sermon and Went the day well in my bottom two. 
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« Reply #72 on: May 03, 2012, 10:54:43 PM »

I will support Take Charge Lady simply because the horse comes from my area:  The Land Beyond the Land Beyond OHare.  Owned by people who own a bag company in Marengo.  I think they have this race in the "bag".  Sorry, a little outlander humor.
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« Reply #73 on: May 04, 2012, 12:41:56 AM »

There is a large group of logicals that have been covered quite a bit. It seems to be a deep field. Personally, I believe time will show it to be an average field.

As far as sleepers, I was looking at Prospective.... excellent pedigree, especially his 3rd dam. He appears to be a better horse with blinkers and ran a nice race to win on dirt in the Tampa Bay Derby. I was watching the Blue Grass. The rider is gunning him early, then he gets caught up in a pack and has to check and strangle the horse for some time. In the turn and quarter pole, the rider is riding like crazy and you would think the horse was done, but he keeps coming and trying. He was striding out in the stretch and never quit. I just think it was a better race than it appeared to be. Plus, he was wide. He should be legged up after that effort. In the prep races with smaller fields and less battling up front, some of these late movers have to be closer than wanted, and it takes starch out of their move. If he can just sit way back off the speed and middle movers, maybe he could pick up the pieces. I think the winner will take advantage of a race that falls apart. Everything will have to go perfectly. I worry he will have him too close or move too early. Alpha and El Padrino might figure as prices if the bigger names take all of the money.

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« Reply #74 on: May 04, 2012, 09:50:24 AM »

Alpha.  El Padrino for exotics if the weather forecast proves correct.
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