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Author Topic: Derby Thoughts/Picks Thread 6 days out  (Read 2091 times)
Alpha Mare
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« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2012, 10:03:49 PM »

Sorry about that last post.   What I was trying to do was post to Alpha.

Shoot, I went to that site and got hooked.  I KNEW I shouldn't have tried it!

hahaha...how many ponies ya got pammy??  i have 12 stalls...7 horses...my level 8 breeding stallion just died today at 19 days of age so luckily i have a son of his that's an 8 and an 8 filly so i hope to get a 9.....i should have kept my last 8 colt  but he sold for 541k as a newborn...what's an owner/breeder to do?  that colt is now a group 2 horse, 7  wins shy of group 1 and he's only 8 days old..grrrr....lol.....its a lot of work tho, feeding/training/grooming/breeding/racing, working your way  up to get those elusive level 10's and up.....but it's such fun! what rooms do u usually race in?
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Absolutely amazing.......s.m.h.....
pezz97
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« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2012, 12:12:56 AM »

first thoughts are for the Chicagoans..
This is a great race, I look forward to the 138th rendition of the derby with great excitement, and wonder how a metropolis of 14 million people 6 hours away from Churchill Downs has so little concern for this event.

Last year the derby was a yawner, the winner was unimpressive, and the payouts modest with a bad group of 20 colts who all had the same mediocre form.

This year, 2012, this is a very good race, if it were the Travers, the Florida derby, the hawthorne gold cup, whatever, this is a GOOD race with 6 or 7 colts that have a real good shot at the win...and I personally look forward to watching it with excitement and much glee....the preakness should be a great race as well..


and on top of all that, its cinco de mayo day   viva La Derby Ono Trice Ootcho

There are 8 to 10 colts that are capable of winning this given the right ride and trip. It's easy to get boxed in, etc…, removing your shot at a run for the wire. This derby, 138, is different than the last few in that in the last few, there was a good possibility for any of 15 to win. In 138, there is a much smaller group that has a probable win in their ability, maybe 6 or 7.

I see 4 possible ways to make money on this derby which will yield 3, 4, 5 to 1 return.

1) Bet the oaks derby double for maybe 3 fillies over 4 or 5 colts (15 out)…that should pay maybe 45 bucks.Any deeper than that, and there is no return.

2) Bet an exacta in the derby 4 or 5 horses boxed. This may make 2 to 1 at the worst, maybe 5 to 1 at the best. If you go deep and box 10 over 10 like most will do, you simply will get a refund minus the takeout on average in this race version. ( but you get a winning ticket) I doubt there is a mine that bird , or a super saver 40 to 1 winner. There is simply too many with better ability than the bottom 10. Going 15 over 15 is just not a winning strategy this year.

3) Pick three to win, and hope they pay at least 6 to 1 or better.

4) Or you can pick one colt and make a solid SHOW bet on it..it will pay 5 bucks..is 5 to 2 a good enough almost certain return ??

5) If there was ever a race that deserved the dime super this is it..but..there are NO DIME SUPERS in the derby or the oaks. You need to spend about 360 dollars for $1 on the super to win it, and that's a big gamble being that any colt could somehow lug up for 4th, so its not that much of a certainty. ($360 = 2 colts , boxed with every possibility of 6 other colts = 8 colts used in total)

BOX 1,2 with 3,4 :: 1,2 with 3,5:: 1,2 with 36…etc..there are 360 combinations of 1,2 with the numbers 3 through 8…(34 35 36 37 38 45 46 …boxed at 24 bucks a combo)

And after you bet the 360, maybe you get 2 to 1, 3 to 1, is a $1500 return..unlikely.

So pass on the deep super as a goal..you may want to throw a few bucks at it though just for fun.

6) The way to make money on this derby, is to make up your mind, pick 5 good colts and go deep in the money..like a 10 dollar exacta 4 or 5 horses for 200 bucks..multiple plays on a string you think is good..pick 3 colts to win, and go deep on the win..i don't see more than 2 to 1 on the tri, once you cover all the possibilities.

No need to spend more than 50 units as the basic wages this year maybe 15 on the oaks /derby, 20 on the exacta, and three wins for 5 units each..

So if you have 150 bucks..

$ 2 exacta, for $50 (5 by 6)
$10 to win on three colts for $30
$2 dollars on the oaks /derby DD for $30 (3 by 5)
$40 to show on 1 colt

50+30+30 +40 = 150

It all depends on the odds…if UR is 10 to 1…a 100 show bet might be all you need.

This race will be easy to OVER BET the bet..like a 6 by 7 exacta $ 42 down..for a $54 dollar payout..wouldn't 42 to show be a better return..

EACH of the 4 bets above could get you back enough to say I had a good day 2 returning money and you profit, 3 or 4 giving back, and you made a good day at the windows


right now I have these colts set for the bets in mind

5 colts not in order (20% of the field)

Bode (9f in 147 at OP faster than Curlin AAlex, & Smarty, i think he went to OP to avoid a quarter crack at SA, like CC has)
I'll Have Another ( he looks terrific as a race horse, and is very fast)
UR (looks great on the CD surface... i lokk forward to seeing him peak here)

then 2 from this group

Daddys Nose (liked his closing style)
Gemologist ( the wood seems to slow )
Hansen ( he seems just a 9f colt)
ALpha ( gemologist got him...if the wood is THE prep race, then both Gem and this one are in play) the wood final times are slowest af all the GR1s
Take Charge Indy with borel ( fla derby winner...tough to leave him out with UR in)

I think dullahan winless on dirt, had messed up front looking legs , terrible action,and looked like crap on the track at CD



the problem with the race is --

there are 6 or 7 that could win.
to cover them all, and you break even...why bother..you may loose..keep your money

so, you either , spend modestly ,and hope you picked right for a modest return thereby resulting in the possibilty of loosing it all by not spending deeper, and yet not be too dissapointed, knowing if you went deeper out, your just getting back what to gave out in the first place.

so you really HAVE to pick the right 4 or 5 colts, wereas in the past, the pool after the 1 or 2 picks was bigger with much greater odds to match with a low odds colt in a combo.

consider the years with streetsense , barbaro , and smarty..no question they were ITM
this is more like a funnycide, empire maker, atswhatimtalkinbout, peace rules year..those 4 were in each others faces all spring in the prep races, and you could be relatively certain 2 of 5 would be in the exacta...thats how i am approaching it.

of course there will always be the lucky winners , who just pick the winner wand go all in on it.

I hope creative casue draws the rail, so its easy to exclude him
You really think the city of Chicago doesn't care about the race?



« Last Edit: May 01, 2012, 06:22:38 AM by pezz97 » Report to moderator   Logged
NIATROSS
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« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2012, 02:45:58 PM »

Hopefully someone other than Optimizer or Trinneberg draws the rail.This way I will have 3 auto tosses.
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« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2012, 03:32:31 PM »

hahaha...how many ponies ya got pammy??  i have 12 stalls...7 horses...my level 8 breeding stallion just died today at 19 days of age so luckily i have a son of his that's an 8 and an 8 filly so i hope to get a 9.....i should have kept my last 8 colt  but he sold for 541k as a newborn...what's an owner/breeder to do?  that colt is now a group 2 horse, 7  wins shy of group 1 and he's only 8 days old..grrrr....lol.....its a lot of work tho, feeding/training/grooming/breeding/racing, working your way  up to get those elusive level 10's and up.....but it's such fun! what rooms do u usually race in?

Oh my gosh!   I just started and only have two horses.  I don't even know about "which rooms?"  One of my horses won his second time out.  My husband hears me in here calling my horses in and laughs his head off.  This is so much fun.  Always wanted to own a race horse. I can't believe what you've done with your stable!
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Wings
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« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2012, 05:32:53 PM »

who do you like at this point...who will you like on sat, who will you bet?? 'alpha logic' got me the exacta last yr, so one of my definite wagers is an 'alpha' and 'saber cat' exacta box.....gotta use rags someplace...and gemologist just might be the real deal....creative cause is interesting...i think bodemeister, hansen and take charge indy are gonna wing it on the front end and kill each other...what to do with dullahan etc??  run this derby 12 times, get 12 diff winners....
Borel takes back with Take Charge Indy.. Trinninburg will make for a fast pace.  I do agree with your last sentence though.  wide open affair
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« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2012, 06:49:30 PM »

I'm down to looking at 4 horses:

1.) Bodemiester (could be very special)

2.) I'll Have Another (a very green horse that has a ton of upside and will need it)

3.) Daddy Nose Best (should have no problem with the distance and pace will help him)

4.) Went the Day Well (looks like he has the late gear to keep running)
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« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2012, 06:58:45 PM »

I'm down to looking at 4 horses:

1.) Bodemiester (could be very special)

2.) I'll Have Another (a very green horse that has a ton of upside and will need it)

3.) Daddy Nose Best (should have no problem with the distance and pace will help him)

4.) Went the Day Well (looks like he has the late gear to keep running)

Your intuition was good on Shackleford, Mel.  What is battaglia making the ML on these?  Do you know?
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« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2012, 07:41:53 PM »

I respect Mel's selections.  Now where is The Commander?!
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Alpha Mare
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« Reply #33 on: May 02, 2012, 11:47:15 AM »

I'm down to looking at 4 horses:

1.) Bodemiester (could be very special)

2.) I'll Have Another (a very green horse that has a ton of upside and will need it)

3.) Daddy Nose Best (should have no problem with the distance and pace will help him)

4.) Went the Day Well (looks like he has the late gear to keep running)

i gotta exacta box the two 'daddy horses'....more alpha logic lol.....and not one of these has a triple crown winning name.......do any of them this yr??
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« Reply #34 on: May 02, 2012, 04:22:12 PM »

Your intuition was good on Shackleford, Mel.  What is battaglia making the ML on these?  Do you know?

Did not see any odds yet from Battaglia, however, Watchmaker I believe had Bodemeister (favorite) at 7/2, I'll Have Another I think was 12-1, Daddy Nose Best at 30-1, and Went the Day Well at 15-1. Don't quote me on those numbers since I am going off memory.
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« Reply #35 on: May 02, 2012, 04:26:50 PM »

Did not see any odds yet from Battaglia, however, Watchmaker I believe had Bodemeister (favorite) at 7/2, I'll Have Another I think was 12-1, Daddy Nose Best at 30-1, and Went the Day Well at 15-1. Don't quote me on those numbers since I am going off memory.

Tht's OK because I already forgot whatever it was I asked you.   Angry  laughing guy

Good Luck Mel.
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« Reply #36 on: May 02, 2012, 04:28:00 PM »

i gotta exacta box the two 'daddy horses'....more alpha logic lol.....and not one of these has a triple crown winning name.......do any of them this yr??

That sounds like a good bet! thumbs up
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« Reply #37 on: May 02, 2012, 11:05:59 PM »

El Padrino is my top choice then Union Rags.  I will box to cover if Union Rags is a monster.  There is something I like about El Padrino?   I think Pletcher is on the DL with this one.  I loved his first start ever at Saratoga.   His last race he was not cranked and he has never truly had a wicked pace to run at.  As long as those speed horses aren't scratched he'll get the wicked pace.  Plus if there is moisture in the track I think he will relish it.

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« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2012, 12:37:14 AM »

Since hansen will not be the favorite and the prices seem like they'll be right, I will go with these.

trinniberg -
prospective -
el padrino -
alpha -
take charge lady -
creative cause -
hansen -
dullahan -

The handle will be huge saturday.

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« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2012, 11:50:54 AM »

Those who know me here know which side I'm on. More after the post position draw.

Tosses:

Bodemeister: short rest, short career (no 2 year old racing -- I am astonished at how desperate some horseplayers can be; there is a DAMN GOOD REASON why no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2 year old...it's called FOUNDATION, and it *matters*), big effort in last after last development: the "perfect storm" of Derby bounce candidates...at a terribly short price. Like him? He's all yours. Won't be on any of my tickets, EXCEPT any "exacta as place bet" backwheels, if I make any those bets.

Creative Cause: a head case that will likely overheat from 140,000+ screaming drunks -- THEN he only has to handle all the commotion of his opponents on the track, something else he reportedly doesn't like; Saturday, he'll have 19 to face and deal with. If I'm trainer Mike Harrington, I'm looking for ANY reason at all to scratch, and maybe I invent one.

I'll Have Another: I don't want no horse that is so sore or otherwise f'd up that he needs Electric Shockwave therapy like this one got only 12-14 days ago. This ain't a healthy horse.

Alpha: just came off some sort of infection where antibiotic treatment was required...and now is supposed to be ready to run the race of his life? I doubt it.
 
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« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2012, 12:07:46 PM »

Those who know me here know which side I'm on. More after the post position draw.

Contenders:

Hansen: it's all up to Dominguez. If he can get Hansen to sit off the speed, be patient and wait for Trinniberg (and maybe Bode) to come back to him, they all ought to all be SO far in front that when Hansen passes the front-runner(s), it's all over. Watch a replay of how Funny Cide won his Derby -- that is the kind of "pocket trip" Dominguez needs to give Hansen to win. (Hansen's chances only go UP if the track is off, even wet-fast.)

Take Charge Indy: goodness, could the draw have helped this one any more than it did? He'll get the trademark rail trip and save every inch of ground under Borel, and have plenty left when the real running begins.

Union Rags: if he's the "Super Horse" everyone thought he was after last Fall, he needs to show it on Saturday. He comes into this with a pair of top efforts, and can win with another top effort; if he improves off those efforts, it's OVER. The only negatives are that he will certainly have to navigate through traffic, and his trainer has been very cold lately...but maybe he's been distracted with this whole Derby thing and getting his horse ready...  Wink

(more in another post...after typing 10 or 15 lines, the text starts jumping around like a f'n jumping bean...wtf is that?  Angry )
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Chris Szulc
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2012, 12:25:04 PM »

Tosses:

Creative Cause: a head case that will likely overheat from 140,000+ screaming drunks -- THEN he only has to handle all the commotion of his opponents on the track, something else he reportedly doesn't like; Saturday, he'll have 19 to face and deal with. If I'm trainer Mike Harrington, I'm looking for ANY reason at all to scratch, and maybe I invent one.


To be honest haven't been following much Derby stuff (and usually never do until a day or two before because hate all the deflections and changes in weeks prior), has this been the case with the horse for awhile now (Creative cause)?
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« Reply #42 on: May 03, 2012, 12:31:31 PM »

To be honest haven't been following much Derby stuff (and usually never do until a day or two before because hate all the deflections and changes in weeks prior), has this been the case with the horse for awhile now (Creative cause)?

Yes...he's skittish. Probably just a little immature. In no way am I questioning his talent...but the Ky. Derby is a stern and unforgiving test for a possible bad actor. I hope for the sake of the horse that Harrington scratches him -- a bad experience at such an early point in his development could ruin him.
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« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2012, 01:18:29 PM »

Well, you've got me thinking about my book, now, but many will be over 20, 30, and even 50/1. 
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« Reply #44 on: May 03, 2012, 01:57:06 PM »

Other contenders:

Gemologist: How can we fault a horse with a perfect record? Isn't this something like when Barbaro went overlooked in his Derby after coming in 6 for 6? Well, this horse IS being overlooked, sort of: even with a nearly flawless looking sheet, there isn't alot of buzz over the horse at the Thoro Graph forum, either. Not only does this horse come in with paired top efforts, he hasn't yet developed that much from his initial efforts at age 2, and that means that if another move forward is coming on Saturday, it could be a HUGE new top effort, one of the 3 or 4 point variety; that would put Gemologist squarely in the negative TG number zone (hint: that's just ridiculously fast for a 3 year old!).

Dullahan: I was going to toss this one due to what I thought was kind of a "gimme" win in the Blue Grass (there was no way they were going push Hansen hard in that race, which made it ripe for a sharp "now" horse to step up)...but he drew perfect, and this Dale Romans colt has made several substantial improvements in performance from age 2 to 3. A mid-pace, ground saving trip plus another skosh of development, and...how many Ky. Derbies has Desormeaux won? Ignore this one at your own peril.

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« Reply #45 on: May 03, 2012, 02:02:12 PM »

Other contenders:

Gemologist: How can we fault a horse with a perfect record? Isn't this something like when Barbaro went overlooked in his Derby after coming in 6 for 6? Well, this horse IS being overlooked, sort of: even with a nearly flawless looking sheet, there isn't alot of buzz over the horse at the Thoro Graph forum, either. Not only does this horse come in with paired top efforts, he hasn't yet developed that much from his initial efforts at age 2, and that means that if another move forward is coming on Saturday, it could be a HUGE new top effort, one of the 3 or 4 point variety; that would put Gemologist squarely in the negative TG number zone (hint: that's just ridiculously fast for a 3 year old!).

Dullahan: I was going to toss this one due to what I thought was kind of a "gimme" win in the Blue Grass (there was no way they were going push Hansen hard in that race, which made it ripe for a sharp "now" horse to step up)...but he drew perfect, and this Dale Romans colt has made several substantial improvements in performance from age 2 to 3. A mid-pace, ground saving trip plus another skosh of development, and...how many Ky. Derbies has Desormeaux won? Ignore this one at your own peril.



I am tossing Dullahan.Tough spot to get 1st lifetime dirt win.
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« Reply #46 on: May 03, 2012, 02:37:14 PM »

I am tossing Dullahan.Tough spot to get 1st lifetime dirt win.

He ran credibly in all 3 of his dirt races. His effort in the BC Juvenile was actually pretty decent, considering he was bumped hard at the start.

Just a tip: don't get TOO hung up on what any of these horses "haven't done yet"; remember, ONE of them will win at 10 furlongs for the very first time in their career.  Wink

The unknowns are what make this race SO special...don't you agree?
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« Reply #47 on: May 03, 2012, 02:49:00 PM »

A horse racing friend from England asked me to jot down my thoughts on our Derby so I thought I would share with you guys as well.  Forgive the length.


1 - Daddy Long Legs 30-1  Irish eyes were not smiling on Coolmore when they drew the 1 post at Wednesday’s draw.  This makes an already difficult task almost impossible.  Connections blamed a poor start on his bad performance on dirt last fall at Churchill and a perfect trip and a very good horse is required to have any chance from this post position.  I wasn’t keen on his chances before Wednesday and the one post confirms my concerns.

2 – Optimizer 50-1  D. Wayne Lukas was given the opportunity to run him thanks to the withdrawal of Mark Valeski earlier this week.  His form suggests he has little chance, but he is bred to go long (more so on turf) and his late running style fits the likely hot pace he’ll be chasing on Saturday.  His run two back in the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas would suggest he has a puncher’s chance at a big price to hit the frame.

3 – Take Charge Indy 15-1 This well-bred colt gets the services of Calvin Borel and comes in to the race off an impressive win over Union Rags in the G1 Florida Derby.  He led all the way in that race but faces significant pace pressure from several others in here.  If all the early speed on paper materializes, it will be a big negative for the 5th place finisher from the BC Juvenile.

4 – Union Rags 9-2 Michael Matz trains the winter book favorite and hopes to find the winner’s circle again having trained the ill-fated Barbaro to victory in 2006.  He is a majestic and very talented horse but tends to find trouble in running having raced wide in his second place Breeders Cup finish and lacking room in his third place finish in the Florida Derby.  His style looks a perfect fit for the projected setup of the race, and if Julian Leparoux can give him a clean trip, he would be a likely winner.

5 – Dullahan 8-1 Another horse bred more for the turf who has done his best running on the synthetic track at Keeneland.  He has the right late running style for the expected pace and did manage to run 4th on the dirt in the Breeders Cup behind three of the more fancied runners on Saturday.  He did have an awkward run out after his win in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes pulling up shortly after the wire that raised concerns but connections are confident in his chances.  I’m not backing him on the dirt, but plenty of people will.

6 – Bodemeister 4-1 Bob Baffert and Mike Smith (of Zenyatta fame) have won plenty of big races including the Kentucky Derby.  His last race was the best performance by any three year old in America when he ran away with the G1 Arkansas Derby by 9 ˝ lengths making him the morning line favorite for the Derby.  The ingredients are there for the son of Empire Maker to be a superstar, but there are questions.  He would be the first Derby winner in 130 years not to race as a 2 year old, he will have plenty of company on the front end starting outside of him, will not be on an easy lead like he was at Oaklawn and there is the chance that he fired his best shot in his last and may bounce from that effort.  I will try and beat him but would not be surprised if he finds his way to glory and turns out to be a very special colt while I tear up a handful of tickets.

7 – Rousing Sermon 50-1 This colt has kept good company in California but only has a maiden and restricted stake win on his resume.  He does have the late running style to pass some horses in the stretch but would be a surprise to hit the frame at a big number.

8 – Creative Cause 12-1 Another royally bred colt by Giant’s Causeway out of G1 winner Dream of Summer.  He’s won 4 of 8 starts and finished on the board in the other 4 including a nose loss in the G1 Santa Anita Derby in his prep race.  He finished 3rd beaten a length in the Breeders Cup and looks to turn the tables on Saturday.  He’s been training very well, his connections are not household names but very respected and this determined colt should get a good stalking trip just off the leaders.  Any price near his morning line offers the best value for your money on Saturday and I fully expect to see him in the mix at the finish.

9 – Trinniberg 50-1 This is the horse that has changed the complexion of the race.  He was originally not being pointed for the Derby, but the connections decided to give it a shot.  He’s never raced beyond 7 furlongs and it’s very likely he will be leading after 7 furlongs on Saturday.  The problem being 3 furlongs will be left to run.  I don’t give him any chance to hold off 19 other horses bearing down on him and hope the experience doesn’t ruin what could be a very good sprinter.

10 – Daddy Nose Best 15 -1 Steve Asmussen trains this Scat Daddy colt, who has won both of his starts in G3 competition this year.  He should also get a good stalking trip behind the leaders under Garrett Gomez, but will be tested for class when asked the question heading into the stretch.  It would not be a shocker if he were to jump up and win, but I’d want more of a price than 15-1 as I feel he’s a rung below what’s required on Saturday.

11 – Alpha 15-1 There have been plenty of negative whispers about his preparation.  Rumors of injuries, bad gate antics and an irregular training pattern combined with the 11 post, which places him in the gate second having to wait for eighteen others to load.  He has good form this year having won 2 of 3 while finishing 2nd to the more fancied Gemologist in the G1 Wood Memorial in New York.  Godolphin would love to win the Derby but the concerns of his mental and physical state discourages me from including him in the exotics.

12 – Prospective 30-1 $250,000 purchase as a yearling finished last in the Breeders Cup in the fall of 2011.  He did win a G2 on the dirt at Tampa before a 6th place finish in the Blue Grass on synthetic at Keeneland as a three year old.  I think he’s another who will find these waters too deep and don’t see him beating half the field.

13 – Went the Day Well 20-1 Representing the connections that gave us Animal Kingdom’s upset Derby win last year comes this son of Proud Citizen.  He’s bred for the dirt but started his career on your shores finishing second on the grass at Haydock and Leicester.  Bought by Team Valor, he’s trying to emulate Animal Kingdom, who won the same prep at Turfway in the G3 Spiral that trainer Motion used to get this guy ready for Saturday.  He adds blinkers for the Derby and if you believe lightning could strike twice, he’s your horse, but he’s not mine despite my great respect for his trainer.

14 – Hansen 10-1 The BC Juvenile winner has trained on as a three year old finishing on the board in all three starts this term including a 3 length win in the G3 Gotham on dirt.  He finished 2nd in the Blue Grass on synthetic to Dullahan and this stunning gray colt will take plenty of action at the windows from his admiring public and brash owner.  He is another that could be compromised by the contentious pace and there are questions regarding his stamina.  I’m taking a stand against him despite his record of never finishing worse than second in his six lifetime starts.

15 – Gemologist 6-1 Normally an undefeated colt from the barn of American super trainer Todd Pletcher would be all the rage over here.  This colt is not being talked up much at all despite his perfect 5 for 5 record, which includes a G1 dirt win in his prep in New York over Alpha.  He won a G2 over the course last fall and showed in his last that he could sit just off the pace and finish.  By Breeders Cup Classic winner Tiznow out of a Mr Prospector mare suggests the distance is right up his street.  Despite Pletcher’s poor record in our Classic races, this horse ticks all the boxes with a great young jockey in Castellano steering the ship.  If he’s not found out for class, he’s a top contender for the win and a must use on any exacta/trifecta tickets.

16 – El Padrino 20-1 Pletcher’s other entry made his presence known with an allowance win over Take Charge Indy and a G2 win in Louisiana on the dirt before finishing 4th in the Florida Derby.  Backers would point to a wide trip that day but others would suggest he found the competition to be too much.  He appears to be going the wrong way after his good start to his three year old year and would be a surprise to be among the principals on Saturday.

17 – Done Talking 50-1 Made the Derby field thanks to the $300k he earned winning the G3 Illinois Derby against a very weak field on dirt.  He does have the late running style I favor in this edition of the Derby, but he was beaten 20 lengths by Hansen in the Gotham and would be a shocker of huge proportions if he makes the placings in the Derby for his obscure jockey/trainer combination.

18 – Sabercat 30-1 The other Asmussen entry earned his way into the field with the $600k he won in a G3 as a 2 year old on the dirt.  With his starting place guaranteed, the connections have taken their time with this son of Derby second Bluegrass Cat giving him only two runs in Arkansas where he finished 8th in the Rebel and a best of the rest 3rd in the Arkansas Derby behind favorite Bodemeister.  He’s another that will be running late and Corey Nakatani should be able to work out a trip if he can avoid being wide going into the first turn.  There are plenty of questions but I trust his trainer to have him ready to fire third time off the layoff.  I plan to use him in exotics and like his chances more than the other bombers lining up on Saturday.

19 – I’ll Have Another 12-1 This lightly raced colt has split decisions with Creative Cause in California beating that one by a nose in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.  He’ll be another near the lead and will have to break well from the 19 hole so as not to be too wide going into the first turn.  If the inexperienced jockey Gutierrez can get him to settle into a stalking trip off the early speed while saving some ground, his current form lines with Creative Cause suggest he’ll be a live contender.  I have reservations about his training and preparation for this test and will not be using him, but he does provide worries.

20 – Liaison 50-1 The other Baffert trainee was stuck on the far outside and adds blinkers for his run.  He finished his 2 year old season with 3 consecutive wins including a G1 on the synthetic at Hollywood.  He started his 3 year old season as a 3/2 favorite and lost his jockey after clipping heals in a G2 on dirt in California.  He seems to have regressed since then finishing 4th and 6th behind the other California hopefuls.  Distance is also a question being by Indian Charlie, but a Baffert horse can never be completely ignored in a triple crown race with any certainty. 

Without benefit of knowing starting prices, I’d concentrate on Creative Cause, Union Rags and Gemologist for win potential.  The Asmussen pair of Sabercat and Daddy Nose Best along with Optimizer would be the longshots to consider in exacta/trifecta wagers if you’re looking for a bomber coming from out of the clouds.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #48 on: May 03, 2012, 02:57:19 PM »

He ran credibly in all 3 of his dirt races. His effort in the BC Juvenile was actually pretty decent, considering he was bumped hard at the start.
Just a tip: don't get TOO hung up on what any of these horses "haven't done yet"; remember, ONE of them will win at 10 furlongs for the very first time in their career.  Wink
The unknowns are what make this race SO special...don't you agree?

I agree about what makes this race so special.Having to do things some have never done or will never do or even try again is great theatre.
I don't have it close by but other than the top 3 in the BC Juvenile he did not beat much to get 4th.
It is not just that he has not won on the dirt as much as he not hit the board on the dirt ahead of anyone good IMO.As a 2yo he got beat by Optimizer and then beat Hansen last out as 3yo on poly races.
I think it is a joke Optimizer is running and I am tossing Hansen so I have to toss Dullahan also.
I like Romans as a trainer and the horse is moving in the right direction but I just do not hink he is good enough for a few of the others.
Anyways good luck if you are using him.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2012, 03:26:02 PM »

OK, I've been noodling on these two.

They might not be in the same zip code when the first five horses cross the finish line, but if just ONE of them crashes the ticket, and you have it? You might need a bodyguard to walk you to your car after the racing day is over.

If BOTH of these hit...I want the Pulitzer Prize of Handicapping for 2012.

X-Factor Ticket Crashers

Trinniberg: Why? Because for 70% of the race Saturday, he is the fastest horse in the race -- and yet, the whole handicapping world has dismissed him because "he doesn't have the breeding". And frankly, he doesn't, but I'm calling on one of first things I learned about horse racing: SPEED IS THE UNIVERSAL BIAS. Hey, crazier things have happened, and if the rattiest, slowest piece of shit I've ever seen in a Grade I race can win (Giacomo), whose to say that an exceptionally fast horse with suspect breeding can't run them right off their feet.

Trinninberg probably won't win, OK fine...but can he hang on for a piece? If he does, you might wish you had thrown him on a few tickets...no one, hardly any one is even considering using this guy for 4th. Big successes in this game come from going anti-stat when the price is right.

Done Talking: "piece of junk" winner of the Illinois Derby, the whole country says. But one look at his Thoro Graph sheet says here is a horse that was making steady and significant progress at age 2 -- as good as just about anyone else in the Derby this year -- got put away for a freshening, came out and ran one clunker at the start of his 3yo campaign...and then got right back to his pattern of incremental development!

Another small move forward puts Done Talking right in the mix late, and he'll be every bit of 80-1. If he hits the exacta, it pays $2K, minumum, and a tri spot for this one will make for a 5 figure payout, easy.
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