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Author Topic: Derby Thoughts/Picks Thread 6 days out  (Read 2065 times)
Alpha Mare
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« on: April 30, 2012, 12:12:56 PM »

who do you like at this point...who will you like on sat, who will you bet?? 'alpha logic' got me the exacta last yr, so one of my definite wagers is an 'alpha' and 'saber cat' exacta box.....gotta use rags someplace...and gemologist just might be the real deal....creative cause is interesting...i think bodemeister, hansen and take charge indy are gonna wing it on the front end and kill each other...what to do with dullahan etc??  run this derby 12 times, get 12 diff winners....
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2012, 01:47:37 PM »

This is one of the strongest fields I have seen in many a years!
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Yimmy
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2012, 02:10:41 PM »

Don't toss out Genuine Risk... Jolley should have her ready and raring to go.

Oops... senior moment.  My bad.  Wink

ALPHA!
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sock puppet
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2012, 02:23:04 PM »

...run this derby 12 times, get 12 diff winners....

Excellent comment, AM!

(How have you been, sweetie?)

Horseplayers have a huge decision to make in this year's Derby -- and it won't be easy to pick a "side":

* Try to pick the winner, or,

* Go for value, and bet the public's mistake(s)?

Classic battle between "selection making", and "decision making" -- pick a horse, or pick a good bet?

If you are rolling your eyes and saying, "No sh*t, HV / Mr. MOTO...why are you preaching to the choir?", WAIT! You'd be VERY surprised how many long-time horseplayers -- I'm talking 30, 40 years of gambling on horses -- simply CANNOT grasp this concept; they think "any winner = value / overlay" and "decision = selection = result of decision"...and that's it!

Those who know me here know which side I'm on. More after the post position draw.

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Yimmy
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2012, 02:29:01 PM »

I find "must toss Robot" to be a helpful mantra.  Wink
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2012, 03:15:21 PM »

Once the field is set with post postions I may have 3 immediate tossouts to make.

1.Trinneberg - Great place to try  your first race beyond 7 furlongs and around 2 turns.  laughing guy laughing guy
2.Toss out the rail horse.
3.If Optimizer draws in I toss him out.

Like HV I will wait for the field to set before posting a pick.
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sock puppet
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2012, 03:22:47 PM »

Once the field is set with post postions I may have 3 immediate tossouts to make.

1.Trinneberg - Great place to try  your first race beyond 7 furlongs and around 2 turns.  laughing guy laughing guy
2.Toss out the rail horse.
3.If Optimizer draws in I toss him out.

Like HV I will wait for the field to set before posting a pick.

Geezus, Niatross -- I've always thought of you as a harness guy, but...you are more dialed into this Derby stuff than most t-bred handicappers I know!

(Or have you always been bi-mutuel? Triple Crown / BC only would make you "bi-mutuel curious", I suppose...    Wink )

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Alpha Mare
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2012, 03:25:22 PM »

shoot, trossie,i forgot about  trinniberg-the 'other' speed horse- to mess up an already messed up pace scenario...lol
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Alpha Mare
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2012, 03:29:02 PM »

Excellent comment, AM!

(How have you been, sweetie?)


hi HV, i've been ok, had some trouble with my dad's health...and he is sooo stubborn!  and i'm sooooooooooo addicted to hoovesoffire.com....i disgust myself how much i play it....lol.....but it's derby week so the 'play' stable has to be put somewhat on hold......how have u been? gonna make the spa this summer?
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pezz97
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2012, 03:32:25 PM »

shoot, trossie,i forgot about  trinniberg-the 'other' speed horse- to mess up an already messed up pace scenario...lol
He will have the lead and fold up around the 6 furlong pole.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2012, 03:35:21 PM »

Geezus, Niatross -- I've always thought of you as a harness guy, but...you are more dialed into this Derby stuff than most t-bred handicappers I know!
(Or have you always been bi-mutuel? Triple Crown / BC only would make you "bi-mutuel curious", I suppose...    Wink )

I know it is hard to believe but I have always been more of tbred guy.
Got hooked watching Affirmed do it all on TV before attending any type of track.
My first live Derby was 1983 and I went for 23 straight more years.Add in some live BC events and and I am sure I have seen more live flat races and enjoy them more.
I love grass racing more than any racing and prefer trotters in harness.Working made it hard to attend live flat racing during the week but I made plenty of trips to AP in the old days.Attending SPK for the harness depended on at least me or one of freinds not going broke at AP. laughing guy
I simply enjoy the capping betting and watching the flats better.
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Alpha Mare
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2012, 03:36:01 PM »

He will have the lead and fold up around the 6 furlong pole.

yea, him and a few others......
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Absolutely amazing.......s.m.h.....
pezz97
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2012, 03:37:47 PM »

yea, him and a few others......
I don't think so, he is a sprinter, he will be on the lead. They are not going to go out and battle him
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2012, 03:39:23 PM »

He will have the lead and fold up around the 6 furlong pole.

Someone may correct if I am wrong but Trinneberg reminds of 1986 with Groovy and or Zabaleta being in the race.Stopping in the lane and Shoemaker makes a hero move while Day comes to a halt on Rampage. bang head bang head

Take a wild guess on who I had Shoe or Day ?
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pezz97
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2012, 03:40:10 PM »

Someone may correct if I am wrong but Trinneberg reminds of 1986 with Groovy and or Zabaleta being in the race.Stopping in the lane and Shoemaker makes a hero move while Day comes to a halt on Rampage. bang head bang head

Take a wild guess on who I had Shoe or Day ?
laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
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sock puppet
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2012, 04:03:47 PM »

hi HV, i've been ok, had some trouble with my dad's health...and he is sooo stubborn!  and i'm sooooooooooo addicted to hoovesoffire.com....i disgust myself how much i play it....lol.....but it's derby week so the 'play' stable has to be put somewhat on hold......how have u been? gonna make the spa this summer?

Sorry about your Pops. Be nice to him, I know you are already.

GOT TO get to Saratoga this summer. I'll keep you posted.
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sock puppet
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« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2012, 04:13:18 PM »

I know it is hard to believe but I have always been more of tbred guy.

I simply enjoy the capping betting and watching the flats better.

Not hard to believe, but...wow.

Had no idea, not when a guy uses "NIATROSS" for a screen name.

I tease the harness guys, but I like watching a good, hard Pace scramble (no breakers trotters for me, thanks!) where everyone is climbing all over each other to make it to the top, and then they fan out 6 or 7 wide in a rush to the wire.

I know damn well when these guys are REALLY trying, and when they are just mailing it in...too often, it seems arranged -- that's why I used to like the Sat. night Big M cards so much: a little "LATE NIGHT HARDBALL!", as Bothe used to call.  thumbs up
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« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2012, 04:20:14 PM »

Re Trinniberg, you good people seem to be overlooking the fact of trainer Bisnath Parboo's unblemished record in the Kentucky Derby... like our lawyer president, and his trial record, Parboo has never lost a Derby!!

Additionally, has anyone ever seen him in the same room as Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the father of Pakistan?





 Shocked Wink
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2012, 04:34:46 PM »

first thoughts are for the Chicagoans..
This is a great race, I look forward to the 138th rendition of the derby with great excitement, and wonder how a metropolis of 14 million people 6 hours away from Churchill Downs has so little concern for this event.

Last year the derby was a yawner, the winner was unimpressive, and the payouts modest with a bad group of 20 colts who all had the same mediocre form.

This year, 2012, this is a very good race, if it were the Travers, the Florida derby, the hawthorne gold cup, whatever, this is a GOOD race with 6 or 7 colts that have a real good shot at the win...and I personally look forward to watching it with excitement and much glee....the preakness should be a great race as well..


and on top of all that, its cinco de mayo day   viva La Derby Ono Trice Ootcho

There are 8 to 10 colts that are capable of winning this given the right ride and trip. It's easy to get boxed in, etc…, removing your shot at a run for the wire. This derby, 138, is different than the last few in that in the last few, there was a good possibility for any of 15 to win. In 138, there is a much smaller group that has a probable win in their ability, maybe 6 or 7.

I see 4 possible ways to make money on this derby which will yield 3, 4, 5 to 1 return.

1) Bet the oaks derby double for maybe 3 fillies over 4 or 5 colts (15 out)…that should pay maybe 45 bucks.Any deeper than that, and there is no return.

2) Bet an exacta in the derby 4 or 5 horses boxed. This may make 2 to 1 at the worst, maybe 5 to 1 at the best. If you go deep and box 10 over 10 like most will do, you simply will get a refund minus the takeout on average in this race version. ( but you get a winning ticket) I doubt there is a mine that bird , or a super saver 40 to 1 winner. There is simply too many with better ability than the bottom 10. Going 15 over 15 is just not a winning strategy this year.

3) Pick three to win, and hope they pay at least 6 to 1 or better.

4) Or you can pick one colt and make a solid SHOW bet on it..it will pay 5 bucks..is 5 to 2 a good enough almost certain return ??

5) If there was ever a race that deserved the dime super this is it..but..there are NO DIME SUPERS in the derby or the oaks. You need to spend about 360 dollars for $1 on the super to win it, and that's a big gamble being that any colt could somehow lug up for 4th, so its not that much of a certainty. ($360 = 2 colts , boxed with every possibility of 6 other colts = 8 colts used in total)

BOX 1,2 with 3,4 :: 1,2 with 3,5:: 1,2 with 36…etc..there are 360 combinations of 1,2 with the numbers 3 through 8…(34 35 36 37 38 45 46 …boxed at 24 bucks a combo)

And after you bet the 360, maybe you get 2 to 1, 3 to 1, is a $1500 return..unlikely.

So pass on the deep super as a goal..you may want to throw a few bucks at it though just for fun.

6) The way to make money on this derby, is to make up your mind, pick 5 good colts and go deep in the money..like a 10 dollar exacta 4 or 5 horses for 200 bucks..multiple plays on a string you think is good..pick 3 colts to win, and go deep on the win..i don't see more than 2 to 1 on the tri, once you cover all the possibilities.

No need to spend more than 50 units as the basic wages this year maybe 15 on the oaks /derby, 20 on the exacta, and three wins for 5 units each..

So if you have 150 bucks..

$ 2 exacta, for $50 (5 by 6)
$10 to win on three colts for $30
$2 dollars on the oaks /derby DD for $30 (3 by 5)
$40 to show on 1 colt

50+30+30 +40 = 150

It all depends on the odds…if UR is 10 to 1…a 100 show bet might be all you need.

This race will be easy to OVER BET the bet..like a 6 by 7 exacta $ 42 down..for a $54 dollar payout..wouldn't 42 to show be a better return..

EACH of the 4 bets above could get you back enough to say I had a good day 2 returning money and you profit, 3 or 4 giving back, and you made a good day at the windows


right now I have these colts set for the bets in mind

5 colts not in order (20% of the field)

Bode (9f in 147 at OP faster than Curlin AAlex, & Smarty, i think he went to OP to avoid a quarter crack at SA, like CC has)
I'll Have Another ( he looks terrific as a race horse, and is very fast)
UR (looks great on the CD surface... i lokk forward to seeing him peak here)

then 2 from this group

Daddys Nose (liked his closing style)
Gemologist ( the wood seems to slow )
Hansen ( he seems just a 9f colt)
ALpha ( gemologist got him...if the wood is THE prep race, then both Gem and this one are in play) the wood final times are slowest af all the GR1s
Take Charge Indy with borel ( fla derby winner...tough to leave him out with UR in)

I think dullahan winless on dirt, had messed up front looking legs , terrible action,and looked like crap on the track at CD



the problem with the race is --

there are 6 or 7 that could win.
to cover them all, and you break even...why bother..you may loose..keep your money

so, you either , spend modestly ,and hope you picked right for a modest return thereby resulting in the possibilty of loosing it all by not spending deeper, and yet not be too dissapointed, knowing if you went deeper out, your just getting back what to gave out in the first place.

so you really HAVE to pick the right 4 or 5 colts, wereas in the past, the pool after the 1 or 2 picks was bigger with much greater odds to match with a low odds colt in a combo.

consider the years with streetsense , barbaro , and smarty..no question they were ITM
this is more like a funnycide, empire maker, atswhatimtalkinbout, peace rules year..those 4 were in each others faces all spring in the prep races, and you could be relatively certain 2 of 5 would be in the exacta...thats how i am approaching it.

of course there will always be the lucky winners , who just pick the winner wand go all in on it.

I hope creative casue draws the rail, so its easy to exclude him
« Last Edit: April 30, 2012, 04:43:54 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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NIATROSS
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2012, 04:49:22 PM »

]I know damn well when these guys are REALLY trying, and when they are just mailing it in...too often, it seems arranged -- that's why I used to like the Sat. night Big M cards so much: a little "LATE NIGHT HARDBALL!", as Bothe used to call.  thumbs up

After listening to a replay of Niatross' Woodrow Wilson win I became a harness and NIATROSS fan.
I became a big Campell fan after he drove a friend's horse to a win at SPK in 92.The horse won 2 races all yr and JC was in the bike for both.
Late night hardball The Meadowlands shuffle and Bothe's calls got me hooked on the Meadowlands.The pools were huge and the racing was great.As luck would have it when simulcasting became legal in IN in 95 the first day was on my birthday and the Meadowlands became the track to play at night.
Trotters are an acquired taste IMO.Like you said you can tell when they are trying or not and I think it is tougher to " cheat " with a trotter.You can either rig em the right way or not.
Getting past the breaks is tough for some people but if you can handle it I think a great trotter is a beautiful thing to watch.
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« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2012, 05:01:06 PM »

Getting past the breaks is tough for some people but if you can handle it I think a great trotter is a beautiful thing to watch.

Agree on the "watch" part -- they are majestic looking, with that beautiful gait.

But betting on them? I've been forever scared away (and scarred) after Andover Hall jumped it at 3/5 in the 2002 Hambo, allowing "Future Felon" Eric Ledfoot to win in his first-ever Hambo drive with Chip Chip Hooray.

My God -- arguably the biggest and most prestigious trot race on the planet, and...the odds-on fave can't stay flat??

Oy...no more for me after that.

As always, YMMV. 
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« Reply #21 on: April 30, 2012, 05:33:29 PM »

After listening to a replay of Niatross' Woodrow Wilson win I became a harness and NIATROSS fan.
I became a big Campell fan after he drove a friend's horse to a win at SPK in 92.The horse won 2 races all yr and JC was in the bike for both.
Late night hardball The Meadowlands shuffle and Bothe's calls got me hooked on the Meadowlands.The pools were huge and the racing was great.As luck would have it when simulcasting became legal in IN in 95 the first day was on my birthday and the Meadowlands became the track to play at night.
Trotters are an acquired taste IMO.Like you said you can tell when they are trying or not and I think it is tougher to " cheat " with a trotter.You can either rig em the right way or not.
Getting past the breaks is tough for some people but if you can handle it I think a great trotter is a beautiful thing to watch.

You forgot ZOOOOOOOOOOMING BY!!

(btw, Bothe is now calling t breds at Indiana Downs)
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2012, 05:51:02 PM »

You forgot ZOOOOOOOOOOMING BY!!

(btw, Bothe is now calling t breds at Indiana Downs)

Yes he is and has been calling Indiana Downs for awhile.
Not sure how I forgot the zoooooooooooming by call.

Here is another one for you  listen to Bothe to this day and you get,
" 3/16ths to go and they are on their way home ! "
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2012, 06:34:02 PM »

hi HV, i've been ok, had some trouble with my dad's health...and he is sooo stubborn!  and i'm sooooooooooo addicted to hoovesoffire.com....i disgust myself how much i play it....lol.....but it's derby week so the 'play' stable has to be put somewhat on hold......how have u been? gonna make the spa this summer?
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« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2012, 06:36:39 PM »

Sorry about that last post.   What I was trying to do was post to Alpha.

Shoot, I went to that site and got hooked.  I KNEW I shouldn't have tried it!
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