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Author Topic: Del Mar has no chance for cup  (Read 1873 times)
APCD Dan
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« Reply #25 on: February 07, 2012, 11:18:11 PM »

Not much heated space at Belmont, either.

Also, lack of seating at Saratoga compared to Belmont.
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pezz97
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« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2012, 11:27:00 PM »

Plus since NYRA has been in the hole for a long time, the BC has not considered them
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 07:25:19 AM by pezz97 » Report to moderator   Logged
thearmada
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« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2012, 12:40:13 AM »

I live about 30 minutes south of Saratoga for parts of the year and the weather here is not fit for a Breeders Cup IMO. It was a freak event, but we got almost 8 inches around Halloween. What are the Belmont track configurations for the BC? I personally don't like Belmont with their 1 turn 9F dirt course or kooky 10F configuration.
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Round Table
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« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2012, 03:49:50 AM »

2009, it turns out, might have been something of an anomaly, assuming you got that info from the Steve Crist blog source.

Here's another source, a pro-engineered surface study, that's most about safety, but also includes statistics on winning favorites (which of course may or may not be accurate):

"From 2000-2009, 34.7% of favorites won on dirt tracks, compared to 33.63% on turf and 32.62% on engineered surfaces."

http://engineeredracingsurfaces.com/stats/overall-stats/



Good. A big sample. -
That's significant to ~1 full std deviation below the mean.  There's only a 16% chance winning favorites win on "all engineered surfaces" at the same "clip" they win on dirt.

Consider the 2009 figs provided by Crist, the winning favorite percentages at 5 race tracks using POLYTRACK (AP, DMR, KEE, TP, WO) seem even lower still than favorites racing on engineered surfaces at tracks made by Tapeta (HOL, PID) and Cushion Track (GG), which seem to race more like dirt.
2009 could be an anomaly but in 2009, out of total of nearly 56,000 races, EVERY track using POLYTRACK had a lower percentage** of winning favorites than the mean average of tracks using dirt or other types of plastic surfaces.

**
If you exclude the "anomaly" Turfway from the 5 POLYTRACKS, the percentage of winning favorites racing on POLYTRACK and turf drop to 31% vs. the percentage winning favorites (37%) horses racing on DIRT and turf.





« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 04:06:16 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
swoopdaddy
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« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2012, 04:35:02 AM »


Consider the 2009 figs provided by Crist, the winning favorite percentages at 5 race tracks using POLYTRACK (AP, DMR, KEE, TP, WO) seem even lower still than favorites racing on engineered surfaces at tracks made by Tapeta (HOL, PID) and Cushion Track (GG), which seem to race more like dirt.


not to be picky, but isn't golden gate the tapeta track and hollywood park the cushion track?
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Klink
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« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2012, 05:56:05 AM »

Also, lack of seating at Saratoga compared to Belmont.

Would there be enough hotels, etc?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #31 on: February 08, 2012, 08:01:14 AM »

Good. A big sample. -
That's significant to ~1 full std deviation below the mean.

Huh

Standard deviation only means something when you're working with a sample. What was presented in the study was not a sample, it was represented as 100% of the data points for the time period given. There is no standard deviation.

Quote
There's only a 16% chance winning favorites win on "all engineered surfaces" at the same "clip" they win on dirt.

What there is, according to those numbers, is 32.62%/34.7% or a 94% correlation of favorites winning at fake tracks and dirt tracks. In other words, very little difference.

However, the whole issue of real vs. fake apparently did not matter that much to the entire universe of bettors as it does to you and a few others, as this study also reported, "Overall racing handle declined from 2007 to 2008, but tracks with engineered surfaces fared slightly better than dirt tracks. The average combined daily handle for North American tracks with engineered surfaces dropped 6.94% in 2008 from 2007; the average combined daily handle for U.S. dirt tracks dropped 7.16% in the same time period." In other words, for at least just this one year, bettors apparently liked what they saw at the fake tracks, and they were positive for business. So go tell your favorite woes to your casual betting Auntie and Uncle.

And, I might add, you are once again arguing something that wasn't really the issue. The issue was HV's claim that the results of races over poly were "random".
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 08:14:40 AM by honest & balanced terry » Report to moderator   Logged

"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
NIATROSS
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« Reply #32 on: February 08, 2012, 08:09:53 AM »

Not much heated space at Belmont, either.

But is big enuff to house everyone when the rains come unlike AP and LS.
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Epsom Derby
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« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2012, 08:18:41 AM »

But is big enuff to house everyone when the rains come unlike AP and LS.

Everyone always tells me how large Belmont Park is. I was there on Belmont Stakes Day in 2004 and it seemed quite small, actually quite cramped would be a more fitting description.

I'd love to see a Breeders at Saratoga or Del Mar, but I don't think it'll ever happen.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2012, 08:20:36 AM »

Everyone always tells me how large Belmont Park is. I was there on Belmont Stakes Day in 2004 and it seemed quite small, actually quite cramped would be a more fitting description.

I'd love to see a Breeders at Saratoga or Del Mar, but I don't think it'll ever happen.

Belmont is a monster compared to those two.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2012, 08:24:02 AM »

What there is, according to those numbers, is 32.62%/34.7% or a 94% correlation of favorites winning at fake tracks and dirt tracks. In other words, very little difference.

Little difference on favorites, yes...but nobody really scratches their head and says "HUH?" when the favorite wins, on any surface. Favorites are like cockroaches: after whoever we are afraid of today (Iran?) drops the Big One on the world, all that will remain are cockroaches, and 33% winning favorites in horse racing.

Problem is, I don't have the numbers* to back up my suspicion that at Del Mar, we would find groups of longshots winning in excess of their stated tote odds (9-1's winning more than 10% of the time, 19-1's winning more than 5% of the time, etc). Obviously, not all longshot odds ranges could exceed their probabilities, or the rate of favorites winning would be WAY lower there.


* Calling our local stats Superman, and his remarkable racing database...can you crank out some numbers for Del Mar for the last couple of years? Maybe start with horses that went off at 5-1 and increment by dollars up to 20-1, then go fives?
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2012, 08:32:04 AM »

That would be an interesting comparison, as long as you also presented the dirt numbers. 9-1's on dirt don't necessarily win 10% of the time, either.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2012, 08:51:40 AM »

That would be an interesting comparison, as long as you also presented the dirt numbers. 9-1's on dirt don't necessarily win 10% of the time, either.

I forget what track poster NYRA792 ("Mr. Super Duper Racing Stats Wizard") ran that comparison for...but it was pretty amazing: 9-1's DID win about ~10% of the time, 15-1's won ~6 or 7%, and so on...they lined up like trained pigs.

Might have been all N.A. tracks, I dunno.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2012, 09:18:33 AM »

Everyone always tells me how large Belmont Park is. I was there on Belmont Stakes Day in 2004 and it seemed quite small, actually quite cramped would be a more fitting description.
I'd love to see a Breeders at Saratoga or Del Mar, but I don't think it'll ever happen.
LOL
You were at Belmont on a day Smarty Jones was gunning for the Triple Crown and they drew a huge maybe a record crowd around 100,000.
The last 2 BC's which I attended at Belmont drew in the 50-60 thousand range and it was easy to get around even for a tourist like me.The turf course is huge and the Euros love it.The dirt track is the biggest in NA at 1.5 miles but leads to strange races form 1 1/8 to 1 1/4 miles.
I don't think Saratoga is all that easy for people to get to either
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2012, 09:34:33 AM »

I don't think Saratoga is all that easy for people to get to either

Depends on how long and $$$ a flight to Albany is from where someone lives. I usually catch airfare in the $249 range on The Flying Bus (Southwest).

From Albany, it's a short drive up the Thruway to Saratoga Springs.

Seems easy enough to me...but I admit I might say that about Saratoga if it was smack dab in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and I had to swim for it. The place has become the annual highlight of my summer.
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hungry
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« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2012, 09:38:11 AM »

Not right now, no. We are not "the biggest richest state in the USA.  Uh uh, in trouble.

I understand the STATE itself is in big trouble....BUT, my point was that there are a LOT of people who have a LOT of money who live in California. I should have clarified that California's thoroughbred handle should be 50 million a day...they should have slots in their racetracks and they should give you the ability to bet racehorses in every convienience store in the state, there's zero reason for you to NOT be able to walk into 7-11 and purchase a lottery ticket (gambling) but you can't walk into 7-11 and INVEST in a thoroughbred racehorse. Every day that goes by, they cost themselves millions by not being able to add 2 and 2.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 09:41:11 AM by hungry » Report to moderator   Logged
NYRA 792
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« Reply #41 on: February 08, 2012, 10:09:22 AM »

I saw the Bat signal, wrong superhero but that's all I've got.
I'm taking requests.
I saw a DMR request.
I'm  using what's in the laptop I'm  on now so it will cover only 1 DMR meet.

Artificial surface only ROI to $1.00

 0.1-1.4         00096  00039    41% 60% 78%    0.77 0.83 0.91     
1.5-3.4          00335  00081    24% 47% 67%    0.82 0.91 0.97         
3.5-5.9          00284  00054    19% 37% 48%    1.03 0.94 0.87         
6.0-7.9          00191  00020    10% 21% 36%    0.83 0.69 0.77         
8.0-9.9          00149  00009    06% 19% 32%    0.61 0.77 0.75       
10.0-14.9       00261  00017    07% 15% 28%    0.85 0.74 0.75         
15.0-19.9       00125  00002    02% 06% 13%    0.27 0.39 0.45         
20.0 UP          00501  00012    02% 07% 12%    0.94 0.79 0.59         
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #42 on: February 08, 2012, 10:12:17 AM »

about 11 months of data

Dirt only

 0.1-1.4         19272  08598    45% 67% 79%    0.84 0.90 0.92   
1.5-3.4          46326  11407    25% 46% 62%    0.82 0.84 0.89       
3.5-5.9          43099  06153    14% 31% 48%    0.79 0.79 0.84       
6.0-7.9          24254  02473    10% 24% 39%    0.80 0.78 0.81         
8.0-9.9          18900  01535    08% 20% 34%    0.80 0.78 0.81         
10.0-14.9       31754  01790    06% 15% 28%    0.74 0.74 0.76       
15.0-19.9       19777  00762    04% 11% 21%    0.70 0.73 0.72       
20.0 UP          67252  01219    02% 06% 12%    0.61 0.62 0.58     
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #43 on: February 08, 2012, 10:16:10 AM »

Artificial only

in this set I filtered out races taken off the turf and moved to the main track by accident but anyway


 0.1-1.4         02530  01060    42% 65% 79%    0.81 0.87 0.91     
1.5-3.4          07121  01797    25% 46% 63%    0.84 0.86 0.89     
3.5-5.9          06543  00997    15% 32% 49%    0.84 0.81 0.85     
6.0-7.9          03646  00360    10% 23% 38%    0.77 0.76 0.79       
8.0-9.9          02912  00233    08% 20% 34%    0.79 0.78 0.80       
10.0-14.9       04792  00283    06% 16% 28%    0.77 0.77 0.77       
15.0-19.9       02728  00121    04% 12% 22%    0.82 0.79 0.76       
20.0 UP          10334  00192    02% 05% 11%    0.62 0.61 0.56   
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #44 on: February 08, 2012, 11:19:53 AM »

by field size
dirt only
post time chalk


Fld Sz < 5      00421  00196    47% 75% 91%    0.80 0.89 0.92         
Fld Sz 5         01852  00788    43% 67% 83%    0.83 0.88 0.91       
Fld Sz 6         05097  02107    41% 64% 78%    0.86 0.90 0.92         
Fld Sz 7         07324  02849    39% 60% 74%    0.84 0.88 0.90       
Fld Sz 8         06725  02476    37% 57% 71%    0.84 0.89 0.91       
Fld Sz 9         05400  01869    35% 54% 68%    0.82 0.85 0.90       
Fld Sz 10        04958  01648    33% 52% 65%    0.82 0.87 0.90       
Fld Sz 11        01749  00555    32% 51% 63%    0.81 0.87 0.90       
Fld Sz 12+      01595  00481    30% 50% 62%    0.80 0.89 0.90       
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #45 on: February 08, 2012, 11:21:46 AM »

field size
artificial only
post time chalk

Fld Sz < 5      00070  00034    49% 80% 96%    0.86 0.95 0.96       
Fld Sz 5         00384  00141    37% 65% 81%    0.76 0.87 0.88         
Fld Sz 6         00952  00369    39% 61% 77%    0.88 0.88 0.91         
Fld Sz 7         00955  00298    31% 52% 68%    0.76 0.80 0.86       
Fld Sz 8         00814  00236    29% 49% 65%    0.76 0.81 0.87         
Fld Sz 9         00632  00184    29% 48% 64%    0.78 0.81 0.88         
Fld Sz 10        00513  00153    30% 49% 64%    0.89 0.90 0.92         
Fld Sz 11        00349  00102    29% 48% 61%    0.94 0.95 0.94       
Fld Sz 12+      00335  00077    23% 44% 57%    0.75 0.87 0.88       
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #46 on: February 08, 2012, 12:22:40 PM »

The whole thread is a joke since the BC has been run on poly before....Another thing to consider when you are comparing win % of favorites over multiple surfaces......Turfway/Keeneland put a lot of runners in the gate compered to many dirt tracks where the fields are miniscule......More horses means less favorites winning......And to the person who was babbling about win %'s of horses at such and such odds......You have to reduce the win % by the amount of the takeout and start from there.....So in the long run a 9-1 shot will win about 1 out of every 11.5 times instead of 1 out of 10
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SHOWTIME!!!
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2012, 02:32:20 PM »

The whole thread is a joke...

Well, then, you are excused, so that you can go back over to the Harness forum and babble about "longshots" at the Meadowlands that pay a whopping $7.20
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« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2012, 03:32:21 PM »

This is all the synthetic revolution has been successful at, IMHO. Creating obstacles ... for no good reason.

But while Game On Dude might appear to be among the leading candidates for the World Cup, his trainer, Bob Baffert, is on the fence regarding that race. Baffert on Sunday said he would go there in an instant if the race were still on dirt, as it was when he won with Silver Charm and Captain Steve. But with Meydan Racecourse utilizing a Tapeta surface, and Game On Dude not nearly as effective on synthetic as dirt, the Big Cap may be the main goal in March.
 
Its something well all have to sit down and talk about, Baffert said.
 
Its getting more and more difficult for American horses to win there because of the new track layout and the synthetic, Baffert said. Were going to leave all options open for now.

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NYRA 792
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« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2012, 04:21:52 PM »

chalks 4/5 or less on dirt
field size

Fld Sz < 5      00222  00126    57% 82% 93%    0.84 0.90 0.94    
Fld Sz 5         00642  00364    57% 80% 91%    0.87 0.93 0.96    
Fld Sz 6         01405  00780    56% 78% 88%    0.87 0.93 0.95    
Fld Sz 7         01656  00916    55% 75% 86%    0.86 0.91 0.94  
Fld Sz 8         01274  00679    53% 73% 83%    0.85 0.91 0.93    
Fld Sz 9         00847  00447    53% 72% 83%    0.84 0.90 0.94     
Fld Sz 10        00642  00346    54% 72% 81%    0.86 0.93 0.94       
Fld Sz 11        00195  00099    51% 66% 76%    0.82 0.83 0.86       
Fld Sz 12+      00145  00081    56% 75% 83%    0.88 0.94 0.96    
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 04:24:28 PM by NYRA 792 » Report to moderator   Logged
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