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Author Topic: Del Mar has no chance for cup  (Read 1848 times)
Trainer Rusty
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« on: February 07, 2012, 05:00:15 PM »

Without a conventional dirt track. 
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hungry
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2012, 05:07:20 PM »

I wouldnt say NO chance, remember, Craig Fravel is a big wig at the Breeders Cup, they might be able to pull it off without ripping up the plastic.

Its pretty obvious that DMR doesnt care that almost all of horse racing considers them a joke because of the plastic track, for some reason, they seem not to care about their legacy and how they are perceived.

Hopefully you are right, many horseplayers have stopped betting DMR because of the surface and won't go back until they come to their senses and get back to reality.
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pezz97
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2012, 05:19:10 PM »

I wouldnt say NO chance, remember, Craig Fravel is a big wig at the Breeders Cup, they might be able to pull it off without ripping up the plastic.

Its pretty obvious that DMR doesnt care that almost all of horse racing considers them a joke because of the plastic track, for some reason, they seem not to care about their legacy and how they are perceived.

Hopefully you are right, many horseplayers have stopped betting DMR because of the surface and won't go back until they come to their senses and get back to reality.
What are you talking about? They averaged 11.6 million a day in handle. So many people didn't stop betting them. Do you realize that they were forced to put in the Plastic track??? I am sure they can petition just like S.A did, but I have not heard of them doing so yet

As for the Breeders Cup, it would have nothing to do with the main track. They would have to rip up the Turf course and make it Wider because as it is built now, would not work.
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2012, 05:29:02 PM »

What are you talking about? They averaged 11.6 million a day in handle. So many people didn't stop betting them. Do you realize that they were forced to put in the Plastic track??? I am sure they can petition just like S.A did, but I have not heard of them doing so yet

As for the Breeders Cup, it would have nothing to do with the main track. They would have to rip up the Turf course and make it Wider because as it is built now, would not work.

California is one of the biggest and richest states in the USA and they only handle 11 million? They would handle 13.6 million with dirt,so, by my math, plastic is costing them 2 million a day.
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2012, 05:32:31 PM »

I wouldnt say NO chance, remember, Craig Fravel is a big wig at the Breeders Cup, they might be able to pull it off without ripping up the plastic.

I think some simple terminology changes will get them off the hook.

Just insert the term "RANDOM" into the title of any race that was *supposed" to run on dirt...so, instead of the "BC Dirt Mile", just call it the "BC Random Results Mile".

That will get them around any issues with things like truth in advertising, or any other claims of falsehoods.
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coldpunch
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2012, 06:14:20 PM »

they would need to widen and enlargen the turf course--the fact that is Polytrack means nothing--Santa Anita held it two years straight on synthetic

turns on turf course are too tigh and the course isnt wide enough--it would take a few mil $$ to reconfigure for a BC Event
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pezz97
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2012, 06:32:47 PM »

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67347/del-mar-expresses-interest-in-hosting-bc
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2012, 06:48:59 PM »

i try to avoid betting del mars crap track.

very nice venue.

a good angle is betting against horses that run okay at del mar if you play SA dirt.only the graded horses seem to transfer form to both
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Certified Derbytologist
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2012, 07:06:57 PM »

Without a conventional dirt track. 

They ran two consecutive BC's at Santa Anita on the fake stuff, did they not? The Euros loved it. Why would it disqualify Del Mar?
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2012, 07:10:40 PM »

I think some simple terminology changes will get them off the hook.

Just insert the term "RANDOM" into the title of any race that was *supposed" to run on dirt...so, instead of the "BC Dirt Mile", just call it the "BC Random Results Mile".

That will get them around any issues with things like truth in advertising, or any other claims of falsehoods.

You've got a point there, every BC race run on traditional dirt has been so utterly predictable, going way way back, maybe even before Arcangues.
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2012, 07:12:10 PM »

California is one of the biggest and richest states in the USA and they only handle 11 million? They would handle 13.6 million with dirt,so, by my math, plastic is costing them 2 million a day.

Good one.  bowing
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2012, 07:44:42 PM »

You've got a point there, every BC race run on traditional dirt has been so utterly predictable, going way way back, maybe even before Arcangues.

When 12 - 14 highly capable animals run over ANY surface, there are bound to be a few bombs...perhaps even a shocker or two, like Arcangues. (Who should have been FAR lower odds, simply because Jerry Bailey thought he was good enough to hang around until the end of the card for him.)

But when you look as the nonsensical results that come in every day on Folly, from races where there were perhaps 3 or 4 legit contenders...a much different picture emerges -- one that supports the denigrating "random racing" tag.

Continue to run BC's over the used condoms, and they will just be an even bigger joke then everyday Polycrap racing.
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2012, 08:14:28 PM »

But when you look as the nonsensical results that come in every day on Folly, from races where there were perhaps 3 or 4 legit contenders...a much different picture emerges -- one that supports the denigrating "random racing" tag.

Here's one quick stat I found:

"Favorites win at Keeneland 31 percent of the time over the Polytrack"

So how random is that compared to real dirt?

http://ww2.keeneland.com/lists/copy//copy.aspx?Page=Handicapping%20Stats
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2012, 08:21:31 PM »

Here's Jeremy Plonk stating that at Del Mar, the % winning favorites is 31.1% over all years of poly.

http://www.horseplayernow.com/DMR2011.pdf
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2012, 08:26:22 PM »

Page 5 of this Turfway Park info PDF has a % of winning favorites over the years, from meet to meet. Cumulative, 2005-2011, the number is 33.5%

http://www.turfway.com/library/Polycapping_Charts_0905-0911.pdf
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Round Table
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2012, 08:43:56 PM »

Terry, Favorites WIN significantly LESS OFTEN ON POLY.



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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2012, 08:47:13 PM »

California is one of the biggest and richest states in the USA and they only handle 11 million? They would handle 13.6 million with dirt,so, by my math, plastic is costing them 2 million a day.

Not right now, no. We are not "the biggest richest state in the USA.  Uh uh, in trouble.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2012, 09:01:45 PM »

California is one of the biggest and richest states in the USA and they only handle 11 million? They would handle 13.6 million with dirt,so, by my math, plastic is costing them 2 million a day.

Last yrs Belmont spring meet avgd under $10 million per day in handle.
Last yrs Saratoga meet avgd $13.4 million in handle
Both tracks benefit from appproimately 50% more in population in the New York area vs Los Angeles

You are mustbe right it must be the poly at Del Mar that is the problem. bang head bang head
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2012, 09:15:42 PM »

Terry, Favorites WIN significantly LESS OFTEN ON POLY.

According to the stats I just posted they win from 31-34%  What's the percentage for real dirt, nationally?
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2012, 09:38:41 PM »

the next question is what will the dates be like in california?

also why cant saratoga host the breeders cup then?
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2012, 09:55:16 PM »

According to the stats I just posted they win from 31-34%  What's the percentage for real dirt, nationally?

In 2009   dirt avg'd about 36.5% with a std dev of 3.6%
vs poly  avgd  about 31.7% with a std dev. of 2.1%.

The answer you're looking for is HIGHER.  Significantly more higher.
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2012, 10:20:44 PM »

In 2009   dirt avg'd about 36.5% with a std dev of 3.6%
vs poly  avgd  about 31.7% with a std dev. of 2.1%.

The answer you're looking for is HIGHER.  Significantly more higher.

The answer is "a small bit higher", assuming your number is accurate across any number of years (or even that one year), and FAR FAR LESS SIGNIFICANT than what Horse Voice described as "random", "random" being the actual discussion here. "Random" would be merely a function of average field size, and if that was 8, the expectation would be around 12.5%. What's bigger, do you think, the difference between 12.5 and 32, or the difference between 32 and 36.5? I'll leave that math to you.
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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2012, 11:30:37 PM »

2009, it turns out, might have been something of an anomaly, assuming you got that info from the Steve Crist blog source.

Here's another source, a pro-engineered surface study, that's most about safety, but also includes statistics on winning favorites (which of course may or may not be accurate):

"From 2000-2009, 34.7% of favorites won on dirt tracks, compared to 33.63% on turf and 32.62% on engineered surfaces."

http://engineeredracingsurfaces.com/stats/overall-stats/
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« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2012, 12:04:16 AM »

the next question is what will the dates be like in california?

also why cant saratoga host the breeders cup then?

Saratoga is cold in November and I do not believe there is much "heated inside space" to avoid it.
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« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2012, 12:10:37 AM »

Saratoga is cold in November and I do not believe there is much "heated inside space" to avoid it.

Not much heated space at Belmont, either.
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