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Author Topic: Hansen Time!  (Read 2617 times)
Round Table
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« Reply #50 on: January 31, 2012, 02:16:33 PM »

Didn't Mo lose out for most of his 3yo season because of illness ?
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
mottoman
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« Reply #51 on: January 31, 2012, 02:24:19 PM »

Good points HV!  3 year olds in general can really change during the long year maturity wise.  My point was a terrific 2 year old may not mature as much as some decent looking 2 year olds do when they reach their end of 3 year old seasons.    Those 2 year old champs winning the Derby numbers over the last hundred years speak for them selves.
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DaPaver
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« Reply #52 on: January 31, 2012, 02:27:40 PM »

That's what was said, but If I had to guess to protect his stud value that sounded better than him just turning out to be a good 3yr old, his value as the 2yr old champ was declining ? just my thought
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Round Table
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« Reply #53 on: January 31, 2012, 02:30:17 PM »

Good points HV!  3 year olds in general can really change during the long year maturity wise.  My point was a terrific 2 year old may not mature as much as some decent looking 2 year olds do when they reach their end of 3 year old seasons.    Those 2 year old champs winning the Derby numbers over the last hundred years speak for them selves.

Somewhat, but don't forget, racing is hard on 2yos.  It's not always necessarily a maturity issue.
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
tapetea
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« Reply #54 on: January 31, 2012, 02:53:52 PM »

I didn't expect Hansen to come back "even faster" as a 3 year old, as he had obviously done a whole bunch of developing at age 2.

Similarly, I don't expect Union Rags to come back at 3 as a much faster animal either, for the same reason.

Not that I like HANSEN as a potential Derby horse, but he hasn't developed one bit as a 2yo. All three of his races at two were 6's on the Thoro-Graph scale ... and 6's aren't that fast for a 2yo. His first start at three was an 89 Beyer ... around a 4 on the Thoro-Graph scale if Beyer and Jerry Brown are on the same page. Good sign if he went forward over the weekend, but he would have to improve a whole lot more if he were to win the Derby. Doubtful.

UNION RAGS, OTOH, has to improve only a little bit to be a major Derby contender. Thoro-Graph 2 as his top at this point.
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pezz97
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« Reply #55 on: January 31, 2012, 05:20:39 PM »

HV said it best. There were people on here saying that Hansen and Union Rags were going to be the only 2 horses to have a chance to win the Derby. Please. It never happens this way. So now Is Algirithims the only one who has a shot? No, Nice win, let's see how he improves. Long way till the first Sat in May
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mottoman
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« Reply #56 on: January 31, 2012, 06:09:34 PM »

Exactly Pezz!  By the way the speed figure on Algirithims was not all that impressive.
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Round Table
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« Reply #57 on: January 31, 2012, 06:26:56 PM »

That's what was said, but If I had to guess to protect his stud value that sounded better than him just turning out to be a good 3yr old, his value as the 2yr old champ was declining ? just my thought

I understand, but I honestly think MO has an excuse since he fell subject to a serious wasting disease, and it would be unwise to judge him or his owner harshly.  I believe he was treated well and fairly by his owner.  I think Mike Repole has a huge degree of respect for him.

http://www.merckvetmanual.com/mvm/index.jsp?cfile=htm/bc/22806.htm

Probably he had trouble maintaining his weight and normal glucose levels.  Glucose is the primary fuel burned by race horses when stressed.

The disease manifests acutely and chronically.  It's like having chronic food poisoning.  It's a liver disease.  It's great he raced as well as he did, in the late summer, placing in the King's Bishop and winning the Kelso.

I am a big fan of Mo's.  I think he could have been great.
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JoeMama
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« Reply #58 on: February 01, 2012, 11:42:57 AM »

Yea, Uncle Mo, in my opinion, does not fit the mold of a horse that did not go on at 3 due to a lack of development. He had issues. Arazi is another that I don't think fits the mold. I believe there were management issues with him.... questionable surgery, lack of preps, and running him at distances he was never meant to run. In addition, the hype surrounding him was idiotic and insane. Racing wrote the book on creating massive hype and setting itself up for a huge let-down when all the signs are there. I still love Arazi.
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Chris Szulc
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« Reply #59 on: February 01, 2012, 12:13:08 PM »

Don't know if this has been mentioned yet.

Apparently Hansen will be blinkers off in the Fountain of Youth next time out.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #60 on: February 01, 2012, 06:48:07 PM »

i would think about a different path for hansen at this point.
lots of races..

he needs No money..he is in the derby.

he didn't like the track at GP , he showed that in the holy bull.

maybe take him to tampa for the tampa derby, thats a deep tiring track,
if he can run well there he will be ready.
or try Oaklawn for a couple on that track,

or maybe an allowance in new york, and try the wood.

he didn't do well in the holy bull.

a very bad sign..  
he had a smarty jones record going into the holy bull
undefeated..on the lead at every call in every race
so it was in the holy bull,
till the final furlong...
when he saw for the first time to his dismay,
other colts running right by him

how desperately depressing it is to see that as an athlete
to be the best up til then  in your own mind
and then to see ,
 and realize as you gasp for air..
your not the best any more.

a has-been at 3 and 1 month.

no longer the derby favorite

glory days..they pass you bye..glory days
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 06:49:44 PM by Secretariat » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #61 on: February 01, 2012, 07:16:03 PM »

how desperately depressing it is to see that as an athlete
to be the best up til then  in your own mind
and then to see ,
 and realize as you gasp for air..
your not the best any more.

a has-been at 3 and 1 month.

no longer the derby favorite

glory days..they pass you bye..glory days

Please, get a grip. He lost a race. One race.

Thank goodness you don't own him -- it sounds like you would sell him to the killers!  screwy
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faster horses
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« Reply #62 on: February 01, 2012, 11:03:57 PM »

IOL--I think you may have missed some sarcasm.

But anyway--two things.

First, other than that incredible flurry in the 70's, it's been pretty darn hard for the 2YO champ to win the Derby.

Second, given how much more fragile horses are getting over the past 20 or 30 years, it seems natural to expect it to get even harder.
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Secretariat
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« Reply #63 on: February 02, 2012, 04:46:31 PM »

only one colt won the derby and as a juvenile won the BCJ..

can you name this inflential son of a great sire
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pezz97
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« Reply #64 on: February 02, 2012, 05:05:22 PM »

only one colt won the derby and as a juvenile won the BCJ..

can you name this inflential son of a great sire
Already answered on page 2 on this thread
« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 05:36:29 PM by pezz97 » Report to moderator   Logged
tapetea
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« Reply #65 on: February 02, 2012, 11:30:49 PM »

Exactly Pezz!  By the way the speed figure on Algirithims was not all that impressive.

Beyer & Associates have changed the Holy Bull figure. It now stands at 105! Seems to be a chronic problem at Gulfstream ... every year. Mind-boggling.
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« Reply #66 on: February 03, 2012, 10:19:37 AM »

Beyer & Associates have changed the Holy Bull figure. It now stands at 105! Seems to be a chronic problem at Gulfstream ... every year. Mind-boggling.

It's only a problem if you just take the track provided time and use it without double-checking it; the premier performance number services clock the races independently.

What, Beyer doesn't have a live ground guy at Gulfstream?  head shake
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tapetea
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« Reply #67 on: February 03, 2012, 02:20:00 PM »

It's only a problem if you just take the track provided time and use it without double-checking it; the premier performance number services clock the races independently.

What, Beyer doesn't have a live ground guy at Gulfstream?  head shake

Yeah, TGJB posted on his site that there was no problem with the teletimer and the race was "easy" to work with. Based on his comments, Beyer had it right the first time.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #68 on: February 03, 2012, 03:25:59 PM »

Yeah, TGJB posted on his site that there was no problem with the teletimer and the race was "easy" to work with. Based on his comments, Beyer had it right the first time.

So, Beyer doesn't know WHO to trust. Wonderful.

You get what you pay for, I guess.   mucker
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tapetea
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« Reply #69 on: February 03, 2012, 03:46:14 PM »

So, Beyer doesn't know WHO to trust. Wonderful.

You get what you pay for, I guess.   mucker

I guess you could say he trusts TRACKUS.  clocker

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pamwaggy
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« Reply #70 on: February 03, 2012, 03:52:02 PM »

I have never been able to understand the Beyer number changes and why.  Nor has anyone at out OTB been able to explain it to me.

Can someone, when they have time, give me that answer in a nutshell please?
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tapetea
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« Reply #71 on: February 03, 2012, 03:57:17 PM »

The funny thing is that you would probably end up at the same place no matter if you're useing Beyer numbers, or Thoro-Graph numbers, in regard to HANSEN next time out. You bounce him off the Beyers and look for a slight forward move off Thoro-Graph. The projected numbers would probably be somewhat similar.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #72 on: February 03, 2012, 05:57:38 PM »

It's only a problem if you just take the track provided time and use it without double-checking it; the premier performance number services clock the races independently.

What, Beyer doesn't have a live ground guy at Gulfstream?  head shake

It's unnecessary - you can double check a race time off the film.
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Round Table
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« Reply #73 on: February 03, 2012, 06:33:41 PM »

It's unnecessary - you can double check a race time off the film.

How would you know the film isn't slowed down or speeded up? 
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #74 on: February 03, 2012, 07:02:46 PM »

How would you know the film isn't slowed down or speeded up? 

Yeah, they do that a lot with replays, just to f*** guys up.   doh

And how do you know the winos the TG or Sheets get to clock by hand and record wind and so on in exchange for free sheets actually did an accurate job?

Or, Pete gave you another option, Trakus.
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