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Author Topic: Hansen Time!  (Read 2594 times)
DaPaver
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« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2012, 03:40:25 PM »

Again I was not a Hansen fan before the BC , but that was a great win and I would not give up on him because of one off track stumble start second place finnish, Still looking
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Alpha Mare
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OYE VEY!!!!



« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2012, 05:31:15 PM »

I love to watch Hanson run....he has his own 'gait'......he stumbled, yes, but he also looked short to me.....i wish they would forego the TC trail and keep him a sprinter ala Caleb's Posse.....I don't see the white flash getting classic distances and there are too many other late blooming 2 now 3 yr olds just getting good.....TP is loaded, BB is loaded, Algorythm was very impressive. Union Rags and Currency Swap will be back....no, keep Hanson off the TC trail and win lots of money with him in other shorter stakes all over the country.
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Absolutely amazing.......s.m.h.....
mottoman
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« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2012, 06:29:58 PM »

By the end of the year there will be many 3 year olds that are terrific that have not raced at 2.  Just talking about the numbers not who wins the Derby.  Don't see Hanson as a Derby distance horse at all.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2012, 07:14:18 PM »

By the end of the year there will be many 3 year olds that are terrific that have not raced at 2. 

Not that many. Horses that don't start at 2 have quite a bit of ground to make up to become "terrific" by the end of their 3 year old campaign. (You might be confusing things with the "late bloomers" who come back as solid handicap horses at ages 4, 5 and above.)

And which horses tend to win the Eclipse award for 3 year old champion? Almost always a winner of one or more Triple Crown races.

How about some examples of horses who: a) didn't race at all at age 2, and b) were "terrific" by the end of their 3 year old campaign?

I can't even think of one!
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swoopdaddy
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« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2012, 07:24:26 PM »

Not that many. Horses that don't start at 2 have quite a bit of ground to make up to become "terrific" by the end of their 3 year old campaign. (You might be confusing things with the "late bloomers" who come back as solid handicap horses at ages 4, 5 and above.)

And which horses tend to win the Eclipse award for 3 year old champion? Almost always a winner of one or more Triple Crown races.

How about some examples of horses who: a) didn't race at all at age 2, and b) were "terrific" by the end of their 3 year old campaign?

I can't even think of one!
Bernardini
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2012, 08:02:53 PM »

Bernardini

The exception to every "rule", Bernardini didn't race at two for reasons I can't remember, debuted the 1st week of January, 2006, and a mere four months later was winning the Preakness!

Not to split hairs, but I doubt that Bernardini is who Mottoman had in mind; Bernardini hardly qualifies as a racehorse who was "terrific at the end of his 3 year old campaign", because he was already retired to stud!

He DID win the 2006 Eclipse for 3 Year Old Male, though.

So that's ONE. Any others? (Mottoman, why does everyone else have to back up what you post -- surely you have some other examples...right?) 
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2012, 08:22:24 PM »

Let me give ya a Little Discreet Dancer! How can ya root for a horse that his arrogant owner names after himself?

I agree.  That's why all those zillions of Warren horses agravate me.  How can he name every one of them after himself?  I am SICK of Warren horses.  They are everywhere.  I'm sure soon they'll be on the fair circuit as well.  They are even in Los Al!
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swoopdaddy
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« Reply #32 on: January 30, 2012, 08:29:45 PM »

The exception to every "rule", Bernardini didn't race at two for reasons I can't remember, debuted the 1st week of January, 2006, and a mere four months later was winning the Preakness!

Not to split hairs, but I doubt that Bernardini is who Mottoman had in mind; Bernardini hardly qualifies as a racehorse who was "terrific at the end of his 3 year old campaign", because he was already retired to stud!

He DID win the 2006 Eclipse for 3 Year Old Male, though.

So that's ONE. Any others? (Mottoman, why does everyone else have to back up what you post -- surely you have some other examples...right?) 
he was retired after winning the jockey club gold cup and a very good second in the breeders cup classic to a freak of nature named Invasor.
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jgp
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« Reply #33 on: January 30, 2012, 08:38:56 PM »

Rivelli's "Richie" horses are all named after the owner too, right?
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swoopdaddy
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« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2012, 08:47:23 PM »

The exception to every "rule", Bernardini didn't race at two for reasons I can't remember, debuted the 1st week of January, 2006, and a mere four months later was winning the Preakness!

Not to split hairs, but I doubt that Bernardini is who Mottoman had in mind; Bernardini hardly qualifies as a racehorse who was "terrific at the end of his 3 year old campaign", because he was already retired to stud!

He DID win the 2006 Eclipse for 3 Year Old Male, though.

So that's ONE. Any others? (Mottoman, why does everyone else have to back up what you post -- surely you have some other examples...right?) 
i know this doesnt fit the criteria you established but one that didnt race at two but won the kentucky derby was monarchos. a hairline knee fracture in the preakness did him in. i want to say ferdinand is another but cant be sure. i know he was a big growthy colt that whitingham took his time with.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2012, 08:58:31 PM by swoopdaddy » Report to moderator   Logged
jrstark
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« Reply #35 on: January 30, 2012, 09:12:04 PM »

i want to say ferdinand is another but cant be sure. i know he was a big growthy colt that whitingham took his time with.

Ferdinand was third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity at two.
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swoopdaddy
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« Reply #36 on: January 30, 2012, 09:24:03 PM »

Ferdinand was third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity at two.
ty janine i just couldnt remember that far.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #37 on: January 30, 2012, 09:33:33 PM »

i know this doesnt fit the criteria you established but one that didnt race at two but won the kentucky derby was monarchos. a hairline knee fracture in the preakness did him in. i want to say ferdinand is another but cant be sure. i know he was a big growthy colt that whitingham took his time with.

Monarchos raced twice at age 2, with a record of 0-0-1 and about $4000 in earnings.

Can't find Ferdinand's 1985 pp's, but the answer to the trivia question is: Apollo was the last horse to win the Ky. Derby after not racing at age 2...which implies that Ferdinand *did* race at age 2.
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swoopdaddy
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« Reply #38 on: January 30, 2012, 09:40:08 PM »

Monarchos raced twice at age 2, with a record of 0-0-1 and about $4000 in earnings.

Can't find Ferdinand's 1985 pp's, but the answer to the trivia question is: Apollo was the last horse to win the Ky. Derby after not racing at age 2...which implies that Ferdinand *did* race at age 2.
read janines post two up. your right its pretty rare
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tapetea
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« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2012, 11:43:32 PM »

FERDINAND ran five times as a 2yo. Broke his maiden in his fourth start, then ran third to SNOW CHIEF in the Hollywood Futurity.
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faster horses
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« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2012, 12:18:05 AM »

How about Curlin?  He didn't win the Derby, but he was Horse of the Year at 3 (and again at 4).

Also, Alysheba was no big deal as a 2yo.
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JoeMama
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« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2012, 02:37:19 AM »

Not to say anything bad about Hansen or to irritate anyone who played him in the futures... I  hope he does well, but I doubt that Hansen will be a top router or sprinter against 3 yo's and eventually older. Does he have the speed to run against crack sprinters and milers? He would have to continue to develop. I would guess he is a better router than sprinter because the pace is slower and he can have his way. He strikes me as an early bloomer who is one dimensional. Others should catch up with him, development wise. I could see him win a derby prep when things go his way, and one of the lesser derbies later in the year. It would be difficult to see him succeeding against top older horses in the second half. He is a nice horse and I hope he does well. There is something about him that is appealing... a scrapper, a gray, a gunner, rags to riches, etc.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 11:45:24 AM by JoeMama » Report to moderator   Logged
mottoman
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« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2012, 08:56:22 AM »

when is the last time a 2 year old champion won the Derby? 
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pezz97
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« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2012, 09:14:46 AM »

when is the last time a 2 year old champion won the Derby? 
2006 Street Sense
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #44 on: January 31, 2012, 10:28:47 AM »

2006 Street Sense

In fairness, Street Sense was the ONLY 2YO champ BC Juvy winner to ever win the Derby.

(Edit: corrected to read "BC Juvy winner", NOT "2YO champ"  doh )

I have an idea where motto was going with that question. I'll throw this concept out there, feel free to shoot holes in it:

Horses go through several growth phases, but to the Triple Crown Handicapper (i.e., us degenerates) none is as important as the move from "baby" (as some say) or "adolescent" (as tabbed by others) to "man" or "real racehorse" or "professional"...or perhaps a dozen other terms that try to describe the mid-2 year old to mid-three year old growth phase.

IMO, horses like Union Rags and Hansen had likely gone through this growth phase in the middle of their two year old campaign, as evidenced by how they toyed with their opposition last year and then arrived at the wire together in the BC Juvy. I didn't expect Hansen to come back "even faster" as a 3 year old, as he had obviously done a whole bunch of developing at age 2. (I *was* hoping Mike Maker would work on getting him to take back a little.)

Similarly, I don't expect Union Rags to come back at 3 as a much faster animal either, for the same reason.

The best of the rest of this year's 3YO class has had time to catch up to the top two, so you'll want to pay MORE attention to the spring prep races, and give less weight to racing success at age 2; if they were racing some at 2 years old, that's good enough -- a win isn't necessary, but racing "foundation" seems to be pretty important: ask anyone who has tried to win the Ky. Derby with a horse that hasn't raced at age 2.

Summary: the horses that are VERY successful at 2 are likely to disappoint you when they turn 3, not because they are suddenly "no good", but because they were early developers and are pretty much the same horse as they were a few months ago.

Another idea that has been debunked is that the Ky. Derby winner will put in an "explosive" effort, or a new top effort on that day; the truth is, the winner usually just repeats a previous top effort, or even bounces a little from the previously obtained top. Again, watch those prep races. Don't just look at the charts, and final times...watch, with your own eyes: look for professionalism, response to rider cues...a relaxed, confident stride early, followed by a noticeable (and hopefully, devastating) quickening when the jock gives the "go" signal.

When I am truly "tuned in", I figure out the Derby winner weeks in advance: Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Silver Charm, Funny Cide...all eminently discernable.

(I locked up Big Brown in the futures after his incredible maiden win at Saratoga, while Go For Gin was a last minute change because he was the ONLY horse that was bright and playful in the paddock and on the track on that cold, wet, miserable day -- the rest had their ears pinned and their tails tucked, just hated it.)  
 
« Last Edit: January 31, 2012, 11:11:26 AM by ImOffLimits » Report to moderator   Logged
Round Table
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« Reply #45 on: January 31, 2012, 10:49:21 AM »


2yo champ & KY Derby Winner the next year.

2006   Street Sense
1978   Spectacular Bid
1977   Affirmed
1976   Seattle Slew
1974   Foolish Pleasure
1972   Secretariat
1971   Riva Ridge
1955   Needles
1947   Citation
1942   Count Fleet
1940   Whirlaway

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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
HorseVoice*
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« Reply #46 on: January 31, 2012, 11:05:44 AM »

2yo champ & KY Derby Winner the next year.

2006   Street Sense
1978   Spectacular Bid
1977   Affirmed
1976   Seattle Slew
1974   Foolish Pleasure
1972   Secretariat
1971   Riva Ridge
1955   Needles
1947   Citation
1942   Count Fleet
1940   Whirlaway



You are correct, of course.

I was thinking "BC Juvy Winner" and wrote "2YO Champ".

Abject apologies.
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Round Table
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« Reply #47 on: January 31, 2012, 11:57:45 AM »

6 of them are 3 crown winners.  You'll be in good company to win both honors, 2 yo champ and KY Derby winner.
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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Round Table
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« Reply #48 on: January 31, 2012, 01:01:35 PM »

Assault (1943) was an interesting horse who no one thought would amount to anything. Only one start at 2 he was considered delicate and was plagued with health problems throughout his life. As a youngster he stepped on a surveyor's stake and developed a limp. The limp disappeared when he ran at full gallop. Known as the "club-footed comet", he was the only triple crown winner bred in TX.

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They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
DaPaver
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« Reply #49 on: January 31, 2012, 02:12:47 PM »

UNCLE MO Is my example of 2YR Old Champ and an Also ran as 3YR Old. What is the number , 2YR Old B/C  champ that has Won the derby 2 or 3 out of 30 I dont know.
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