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Author Topic: 114 Beyer for SHREWD OPERATOR Saturday  (Read 3859 times)
tapetea
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« Reply #75 on: October 23, 2011, 01:02:36 PM »


Yeah...let's impugn Chris Block's knowledge and experience, and give King Andy a free pass on yet another obviously bad number.  screwy

Thoro-Graph gave him a -4. That's a 116 on the Beyer scale. I'm just sayin'.  Wink
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #76 on: October 23, 2011, 01:22:46 PM »

Thoro-Graph gave him a -4. That's a 116 on the Beyer scale. I'm just sayin'.  Wink

Wait a minute now ... you're saying TWO different speed rating services, including TG, gave this horse an obviously bad number?  screwy

I wonder why we hadn't got this update about the corresponding TG number before today?
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #77 on: October 23, 2011, 01:56:07 PM »

Wait a minute now ... you're saying TWO different speed rating services, including TG, gave this horse an obviously bad number?  screwy

I wonder why we hadn't got this update about the corresponding TG number before today?

The AP number may be bad, but in fairness, yesterday's race isn't the best example to try to say anyone gave him a bad speed figure from that last start.

He never got to the lead yesterday, and he's never run a huge number when denied the lead -- heck, he's never run a particularly good race when denied the lead, so trying to glean any information about that AP fig based on a dull run yesterday is comparing apples and oranges.
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tapetea
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« Reply #78 on: October 23, 2011, 02:01:23 PM »

I wonder why we hadn't got this update about the corresponding TG number before today?

Never had the opportunity until today. The horse never runs.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #79 on: October 23, 2011, 02:33:01 PM »

Never had the opportunity until today. The horse never runs.

Well, yeah, there's that, but I meant maybe from someone who buys TG all the time and might have had that number maybe Friday, or even earlier, from his inside sources at TG.
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #80 on: October 23, 2011, 04:36:07 PM »

Well, yeah, there's that, but I meant maybe from someone who buys TG all the time and might have had that number maybe Friday, or even earlier, from his inside sources at TG.

Who might this "someone" be?   head shake
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tapetea
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« Reply #81 on: October 23, 2011, 06:15:12 PM »

I would be surprised if he even broke through an 80 Beyer.

Yup, he got a 78 preliminary Beyer. Winner gets a 96.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #82 on: October 23, 2011, 06:57:59 PM »

Yup, he got a 78 preliminary Beyer. Winner gets a 96.


Must have been the bounce.
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thoroughbred
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« Reply #83 on: October 23, 2011, 07:20:40 PM »

The AP number may be bad, but in fairness, yesterday's race isn't the best example to try to say anyone gave him a bad speed figure from that last start.

He never got to the lead yesterday, and he's never run a huge number when denied the lead -- heck, he's never run a particularly good race when denied the lead, so trying to glean any information about that AP fig based on a dull run yesterday is comparing apples and oranges.

Brian has it exactly right. Not dissing SO but he is a horse that has to get the lead. If he gets a good start and gets the lead uncontested, Katy bar the door, but if he doesn't he loses interest. When they sent Captain Bullet Bob yesterday and SO had to fight with him for the lead, it was game over for him.
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jrstark
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« Reply #84 on: October 23, 2011, 07:25:23 PM »

Shorty said yesterday that the horse likes Poly better than dirt.  His record shows that:

Average Beyer for 6f Poly - 94.25
Average Beyer for 6f dirt - 84.8 (includes yesterday)

Look back to 09, he went from a 104 at Arlington in September to 84 in the Lightning Jet.  He was favored then too.

Edited to say thoroughbred could be right as well, because in that 09 race he didn't get the lead.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2011, 07:28:23 PM by jrstark » Report to moderator   Logged
tapetea
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« Reply #85 on: October 23, 2011, 07:32:38 PM »

Must have been the bounce.

Nah, he's a need-the-lead type horse.  Wink
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tapetea
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« Reply #86 on: October 23, 2011, 07:46:02 PM »

Shorty said yesterday that the horse likes Poly better than dirt.  His record shows that:

Average Beyer for 6f Poly - 94.25
Average Beyer for 6f dirt - 84.8 (includes yesterday)

Look back to 09, he went from a 104 at Arlington in September to 84 in the Lightning Jet.  He was favored then too.

Edited to say thoroughbred could be right as well, because in that 09 race he didn't get the lead.

Well, that depends on what you want to believe. The data i'm looking suggests he's equally good on both surfaces.

He was off a top heading into the Lightning Jet in 09 as he was yesterday. The difference was that in 09 he was coming off a 30+ day rest and yesterday he was 90+ days.  I was looking for something better than a 78 Beyer with all that rest and "Chris Block's knowledge and experience" backing him up.
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thoroughbred
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« Reply #87 on: October 23, 2011, 09:16:29 PM »

Nah, he's a need-the-lead type horse.  Wink

Please share with us how many races he has won when he wasn't leading by the 1/4? Or for that matter how many he has won when coming from off the pace? Wink
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jrstark
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« Reply #88 on: October 23, 2011, 09:34:02 PM »

All 8 wins have been wire-to-wire.  His three seconds and one show have been wire to the second-to-the-last call.  In only two of his off-the-board finishes did he have the lead, and those were his only two grass races.

But he still has better Beyers on Polytrack ;-)
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thoroughbred
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« Reply #89 on: October 23, 2011, 09:55:35 PM »

All 8 wins have been wire-to-wire.  His three seconds and one show have been wire to the second-to-the-last call.  In only two of his off-the-board finishes did he have the lead, and those were his only two grass races.

But he still has better Beyers on Polytrack ;-)


LOL I agree he obviously loves the polytrack!!!!
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CJP
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« Reply #90 on: October 25, 2011, 12:46:00 AM »

..........trying to glean any information about that AP fig based on a dull run yesterday is comparing apples and oranges.

Channeling your inner Herman Cain?
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #91 on: October 25, 2011, 12:52:24 AM »

Channeling your inner Herman Cain?

 laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
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tapetea
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« Reply #92 on: October 25, 2011, 05:35:26 AM »

The AP number may be bad, but in fairness, yesterday's race isn't the best example to try to say anyone gave him a bad speed figure from that last start.

I don't question the 114 before, or after this past weekend.
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Table Gambler
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« Reply #93 on: October 27, 2011, 08:54:26 AM »

Shorty said yesterday that the horse likes Poly better than dirt.  His record shows that:

Average Beyer for 6f Poly - 94.25
Average Beyer for 6f dirt - 84.8 (includes yesterday)

Look back to 09, he went from a 104 at Arlington in September to 84 in the Lightning Jet.  He was favored then too.

Edited to say thoroughbred could be right as well, because in that 09 race he didn't get the lead.

Very well put. He does not grip the dirt like he does with the poly. He broke right with the field but just couldn't get his footing that he needs early on. Still a very talanted individual.
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