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Author Topic: A simple betting system.  (Read 882 times)
Round Table
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« on: October 10, 2011, 10:38:29 PM »

I could describe a simple betting system, set up simply, on a spreadsheet, that could, and I will say could, but has a good chance still, of returning on average, say conservatively, 45% or MORE, on your wagers.

Any interested racing fans can send me a PM.



41.67   37.19   33.84   45.72
41.72   37.24   36.20   35.46
35.50   35.27   31.65   38.28
35.23   35.24   36.05   43.28
34.51   37.01   33.30   34.88
31.02   36.22   31.22   43.24
32.77   35.10   37.08   46.00

Start date 5/2010  End Date 10/2011

Monthly                        
TOTALS   21,828   (13,220)   8,608   65.11%            
                        
Min Bet            ($20)            
Max Bet            ($160)            
Avg Bet            ($51)            
Median Bet            ($40)            
# Qtrly Observations      16            
# Wagers            263            
# Cashed            40            
Hit Rate            14.90%            
                        
Max Qtr. Draw Down                                      (68)
Max Qtr. Profit                                    4,084            
Max Qtr. Draw Down  - 2 Standard Dev.         (859)            
Max Qtr. Profit  - 2 Standard Dev.            4,226            
Avg Qtr. Profit                                    1,684            
Max Qtr. Draw Down  Simple ROI            -2.93%            
Max Qtr. Profit  Simple ROI                          215.53%            
Avg Qtr. Profit  Simple ROI                    84.36%            
Max Qtr. Draw Down  Simple ROI - 2 SDev.      -48.30%            
Max Qtr. Profit  Simple ROI - 2 SDev.         217.02%            
Min Qtr. Hit Rate                                    8.33%            
Max Qtr. Hit Rate                                    28.57%            
Avg Qtr. Hit Rate                                    16.53%            
« Last Edit: October 29, 2011, 05:22:55 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Maymoral
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2011, 11:24:45 PM »

I wouldn't trust a thing you said after seeing your ROI since I have been on this forum.  Maybe your system will entail telling users to "play 5-6 horses" in a 10 horse field or "toss" the horse that ends up winning. Grin
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pezz97
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2011, 12:39:13 AM »

I wouldn't trust a thing you said after seeing your ROI since I have been on this forum.  Maybe your system will entail telling users to "play 5-6 horses" in a 10 horse field or "toss" the horse that ends up winning. Grin
And I wouldn't trust any of your posts that you pick since 3 of your locks have lost in the past 3 days. So maybe you should not talk about anyone else's picks...............
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Round Table
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2011, 03:55:26 AM »

And I wouldn't trust any of your posts that you pick since 3 of your locks have lost in the past 3 days. So maybe you should not talk about anyone else's picks...............


Thank you !

Yes.  Correct !   It is nothing like that.  What you saw here was crude in comparison to the simple betting system.  And, the simple betting system does not require rebates.

 trophy  trophy

I will be happy to show a long list of results, as for example, to anyone requesting it by Private Message.  
« Last Edit: October 11, 2011, 04:10:23 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Round Table
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2011, 07:24:58 AM »

Should have thought of this before:

Financials:

A Simple Betting System:

         Cashed                  
Month   Bets     Bets         Revenue   Expense   P/L
May-2010   0   4         $0           ($350)   ($350)
Jun-2010   4   20         $10,670   ($3,900)   $6,770
Jul-2010   5   28         $12,235   ($5,500)   $6,735
Aug-2010   3   20         $4,598   ($3,450)   $1,148
Sep-2010   1   11         $1,208   ($2,050)   ($843)
Oct-2010   1   14         $1,685   ($2,450)   ($765)
Nov-2010   0   7         $0           ($1,450)   ($1,450)
Dec-2010   0   20         $0           ($2,850)   ($2,850)
Jan-2011   2   32         $2,608   ($5,150)   ($2,543)
Feb-2011   1   19         $1,643   ($2,800)   ($1,158)
Mar-2011   3   33         $14,160   ($5,450)   $8,710
Apr-2011   4   38         $5,380   ($5,700)   ($320)
May-2011   3   26         $4,078   ($3,900)   $178
Jun-2011   3   31         $7,390   ($7,200)   $190
Jul-2011   9   45         $23,613   ($9,700)   $13,913
Aug-2011   3   25         $15,873   ($4,600)   $11,273
Sep-2011   3   19         $4,085   ($4,000)   $85
Oct-2011   2   16         $2,860   ($3,100)   ($240)

Totals      47   408         $112,083    ($73,600)   $38,483


Minimum Bet $50
Maximum Quarterly Drawdown ($6,843)
Maximum Quarterly Profit $25,375
Average Quarterly Profit $6,861
« Last Edit: October 12, 2011, 01:01:14 PM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Buggyboy
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2011, 01:12:01 PM »

  Maymoral, can you do this?
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Maymoral
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2011, 12:16:55 AM »

It's quite easy to type out a bunch of numbers and say your system makes a fortune.  It's quite another to actually post winning picks in this forum consistently.

But to each his own I guess.  I prefer making people money. dude
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SomeNutSomeWhere
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2011, 06:16:35 PM »

It's quite easy to type out a bunch of numbers and say your system makes a fortune.  It's quite another to actually post winning picks in this forum consistently.

But to each his own I guess.  I prefer making people money. dude

Is posting 1-9 shots to show (that a first time handicapper can identify) considered posting winning picks ??
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Buggyboy
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2011, 07:59:01 PM »

Is posting 1-9 shots to show (that a first time handicapper can identify) considered posting winning picks ??

  Yes-redboarding optional
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pezz97
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2011, 07:32:48 AM »

  Yes-redboarding optional
Grin
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park ranger
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2011, 07:56:34 PM »

Is posting 1-9 shots to show (that a first time handicapper can identify) considered posting winning picks ??

This is the post of the year.  thumbs up
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Secretariat
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2011, 08:31:23 PM »

the 3 winning bets in march and august..what were they ?
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Certified Derbytologist
Round Table
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2011, 08:27:19 AM »

the 3 winning bets in march and august..what were they ?

I mailed a P.M. explaining a programming error, but I want to thank you for responding.

Here are the revised figures:
Bets Cashed 47
Bets 408
Revenue  $99,718
Expense ($73,600)
Profit  $26,118
Simple Return 35.49%

Max Qtr.*  draw down ($7,258)
Max Qtr, Profit $15,290
Avg Qtr. Profit  $$4,654

             Cashed
Date       Bets     Bets                  Rev            Exp           Total
May-2010   0   4         $0           ($350)   ($350)
Jun-2010   4   20         $10,670   ($3,900)   $6,770
Jul-2010   5   28         $12,445   ($5,500)   $6,945
Aug-2010   3   20         $4,805   ($3,450)   $1,355
Sep-2010   1   11         $1,215   ($2,050)   ($835)
Oct-2010   1   14         $1,670   ($2,450)   ($780)
Nov-2010   0   7         $0           ($1,450)   ($1,450)
Dec-2010   0   20         $0           ($2,850)   ($2,850)
Jan-2011   2   32         $2,298   ($5,150)   ($2,853)
Feb-2011   1   19         $1,245   ($2,800)   ($1,555)
Mar-2011   3   33         $14,120   ($5,450)   $8,670
Apr-2011   4   38         $5,680   ($5,700)   ($20)
May-2011   3   26         $4,430   ($3,900)   $530
Jun-2011   3   31         $5,210   ($7,200)   ($1,990)
Jul-2011   9   45         $17,165   ($9,700)   $7,465
Aug-2011   3   25         $13,080   ($4,600)   $8,480
Sep-2011   3   19         $3,345   ($4,000)   ($655)
Oct-2011   2   16         $2,340   ($3,100)   ($760)

*here, a Qtr. is any continuous 3 month period.


Date                race  Prg#    Horse        Wager    to    win#    Revenue
Aug 2010
08/07/2010   dmr   8   11   lg power   ($150)    w 11     $1830
08/11/2010   sar   2   3   s move   ($200)   w 3        $1580
08/15/2010   dmr   3   5   f pick           ($150)    w5        $1395

Mar 2011
03/12/2011   gp   4   5   glotona   ($200)        w5     $4220
03/27/2011   aqu   3   4   reprieve   ($400)        w4      $6000
03/31/2011   sa   7   2   l mist           ($200)    w2      $3900

Aug 2011
08/02/2011   prx   10   4   rw           ($200)   w4      $5520
08/10/2011   wo   4   3   dttm            ($800)   w3       $6120
08/27/2011   dmr   7   4   drs           ($150)   w4      $1440


Simple System is a simple reduction of a more complex system called BIG GUY. BIG GUY shoes returns closer to 70% plus, with less draw down. BIG GUY hits at about 20% and shows an on-average profit at about 3 days out of every 8.

System play requires discipline.  You have to sit and wait through it, play it out, NO ifs, ands, buts, and NO hunches.  

Additionally, I might bring BIG GUY out of development and market it online as a subscription service, in which case I will need a marketer, or a salesman.









« Last Edit: October 15, 2011, 09:32:36 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

They ought to return to Tampa and fix the mistake they made.
Maymoral
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2011, 10:04:07 AM »

And that's why 99% of the selections you post tell us to bet 4-5 horses per race with none of them winning and then tell us to "toss" the winners.  Keep dreaming "big guy".  laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy
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Buggyboy
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2011, 10:53:21 AM »

And that's why 99% of the selections you post tell us to bet 4-5 horses per race with none of them winning and then tell us to "toss" the winners.  Keep dreaming "big guy".  laughing guy laughing guy laughing guy


  Kinda like other streaks?
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