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Author Topic: OT Baseball 9/06  (Read 4543 times)
HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #50 on: September 12, 2011, 03:59:44 PM »

I used to really enjoy betting the prop bets back I'm the day, crazy bets like who will score first, will there be a run in the first inning, Total runs+hits+errors (usually a line of 29, over under type bet), will Player X record a home run or a double (usually +150 yes, -180 no), will player X record a hit (usually -250 yes, +280 no), also there are "Series Prices" which involves betting on which team will win the series (relative to previously stated bets is probably the least degenerate betting line)

An all time great gambling story happened to my cousin back in 99. He had the Mets -1.5 @ home against Atlanta in the NL championship series. The game ended up going into extra innings, meaning, the only way he could win was on a non-solo home run. So along comes the 15th inning, 3 to 3 ball game, bases loaded, Robin Ventura jacks one out of the ball park! As you can imagine, my cousins ecstatic as he got extremely lucky and was making plans on how to spend his money.. Not so fast. After the guy on 3rd crosses home, the Mets storm the field and mob Ventura. Since only one guy crossed home before the mets stormed, Ventura is only credited w/ an RBI single. Final score- Mets 4, Braves 3..

Ouch!!
Nick

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Round Table
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« Reply #51 on: September 13, 2011, 05:21:44 AM »

That is a great story.

Right now, because of the wild card, Tampa and Boston are news.

The way I see it, Tampa has less than a 5% chance to finish the season with 94 or more wins while Boston is the same at 50%.

Have to watch what happens.

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #52 on: September 13, 2011, 02:12:04 PM »

Correction: Oakland -140 would equal 60$ profit, -110= 90, -120= 80, -130= 70, -140= 60, but u got the concept simply a computation error, re: pennant races, I'm a strong opponent of baseball, I find it boring always have but the lack of other gambling opportunities a few years ago forced me into it, I honestly prefer to bet on the WNBA (which I also dislike though to a lesser degree)
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sam
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« Reply #53 on: September 13, 2011, 03:26:18 PM »

betting on sports will put you in the poor house
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may the horse be with you
HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #54 on: September 13, 2011, 03:38:15 PM »

Idk I think NCAA FB and hoops are beatable as well as NFL and NBA, like any form of gambling in order to win consistently you have to put in a bunch of time/work, I'm out of touch w/ previously menti
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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #55 on: September 13, 2011, 03:42:09 PM »

Previously mentioned sports so I layoff for most part but w/ all the teams in NCAA someone who was willing to put in 40 hr a week watching film and analyzing stats and has somewhat of a grasp on the different angles and concepts could do pretty well for themselves, especially in NCAA hoops
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Round Table
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« Reply #56 on: September 17, 2011, 03:12:55 AM »

9/17  

BE CAREFUL. I MIGHT HAVE A COMPUTATIONAL ERROR HERE :


tb vs. bos @bos

ok I took a look at this  -

this game , tonight.

IF you can get    tb  +155,  bos -170  such as what I saw at harrahs

you have a 20% premium return on TB since the true odds which I figured are :

1.56/1   tb    (88.56/56.42)

-------

BTW, my guess is pitching doesn't matter, baseball is a hitting game.  If you can  draw walks, hit triples and hr, keep the SO down,  you have a contending team.

Post season -
got to ask yourself the question, do you go with a consistent team like the phillies or the yanks  or a team that can streak like det or mil ?  Because the way i see it, post season is very different than regular season baseball.

« Last Edit: September 17, 2011, 09:05:28 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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Round Table
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« Reply #57 on: September 17, 2011, 09:54:21 AM »

OK I think i'm seeing how these lines are put together -

I'll put two tegether myself here:


9/17 odds to $1
ATL @ NYM
ATL - .65/1
NYM - .97/1

MIL @ CIN
MIL - .71/1
CIN - .89/1


Tell u what :
I will lay 5/2 on StL. tonight, which means I'm taking all the money.   trophy
« Last Edit: September 17, 2011, 10:04:59 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #58 on: September 17, 2011, 01:43:15 PM »

I think you've regressed a little bit, if one team pays less than a buck then the other team has to pay over a buck
ATL - .65/1
NYM - .97/1

MIL @ CIN
MIL - .71/1
CIN - .89/1

Actual odds-
Mets +159=  1.59$ per 1$ bet
Atl -169   =   .59$ per  1$

+ moneyline= multiply 1$ by the number
- moneyline= divide 1$ by number

We'll get this!
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Round Table
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« Reply #59 on: September 17, 2011, 05:56:49 PM »

I think you've regressed a little bit, if one team pays less than a buck then the other team has to pay over a buck
ATL - .65/1
NYM - .97/1

MIL @ CIN
MIL - .71/1
CIN - .89/1



Actual odds-
Mets +159=  1.59$ per 1$ bet
Atl -169   =   .59$ per  1$

+ moneyline= multiply 1$ by the number
- moneyline= divide 1$ by number

We'll get this!


-moneyline, which one ?  divide 1$ by number OR subtract number from $2 ?

**************]

What I did (my line)  - NYM  .97/1  $1 on mets, mets win =  $1.97,  mets lose = u lose $1.
                             -ATL   .65/1  $ on atl, atl wins = $1.65 , atl lose = u lose $1.

If you bet both ($2)  = loss if Mets win ($.03)  = loss if Atl wins (-$.35).

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #60 on: September 17, 2011, 07:32:39 PM »

Ahh confused me at first. I think I know what you're doing wrong. There is actually no subtraction involved. The - sign simply indicates a favorite, and, in baseball, a favorite means that you're going to be getting less money than you risk. Going to try a formula below

Cubs +150 @ Sox -150

1$ on cubs X 1.5= 1.5$ profit

1$ on Sox / 1.5 = .66$ profit

+150 = multiply your bet by 1.5 to determine payout
-150= divide your bet by 1.5 to determine payout

There's no addition or subtraction involved just multiplication and division.. Just don't ask me any non gambling related math as I haven't taken a math class since I got a C in geometry in sophomore year of 02.. However I can tell you exactly what % one hand has against another hand at any point in a poker game or odds of hitting straight yet would be prob a C student at best in a HS class today.. Luckily Since 06 have made a little over 250k playing poker (unti the 15th of april when feds shut it down) which Im guessing is more than Mr. Zamin made, so, my message remains, to Mr. Z, "This ****'s stupid", and to the youth of America, "**** School!"
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Round Table
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« Reply #61 on: September 18, 2011, 07:23:18 AM »

Ahh confused me at first. I think I know what you're doing wrong. There is actually no subtraction involved. The - sign simply indicates a favorite, and, in baseball, a favorite means that you're going to be getting less money than you risk. Going to try a formula below

Cubs +150 @ Sox -150

1$ on cubs X 1.5= 1.5$ profit

1$ on Sox / 1.5 = .66$ profit

+150 = multiply your bet by 1.5 to determine payout
-150= divide your bet by 1.5 to determine payout



Right. The minus is the favorite.

Mr. Harness, this cannot be right since I can't lose if I bet both teams.  
You might have a typo.

Cubs +150  = $.50 profit on cubs.
Sox -150 = either a $.50 profit (2-1.50)  OR  a $.67 profit (1 /1.5).
Probably, it's $.50 but can be either.  If it was by division, the Sox could not be the favorite !  You'd have more profit on the favorite than the underdog. !

IMO on the surface, their way is a stupid way to present odds to the public, though I suspect there is more involved, and that's why.  There are three line , the money line, the running line and the over/under.

Look again closely:
My line  ATL .65/1, NYM .95/1 = ATL  (btw, there is "breakage")  


=== NYM +195, ATL -145.



« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 07:55:47 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #62 on: September 18, 2011, 01:19:58 PM »

In previous example (cubs +150, sox -150) I intentionally omitted the juice/vig that the book charges to keep it simple
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Round Table
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« Reply #63 on: September 18, 2011, 04:39:54 PM »

In previous example (cubs +150, sox -150) I intentionally omitted the juice/vig that the book charges to keep it simple


Yes, I figured that. 

So,  do you still think it's 100/150 and not 200-150 ?


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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #64 on: September 18, 2011, 07:25:14 PM »

Yep I'm certain though you had me questioning myself for a bit there, dbl checked and I'm correct, this link might help

http://zewkey.com/zewkey%20moneyline%20calculator.htm
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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #65 on: September 18, 2011, 07:30:02 PM »

Forget that it says "fighter" just plug in the moneyline with the appropriate +/- click calculate and look @ bottom of screen, if that fails, going back to original formula, +ML = multiply wager by moneyline to calculate payout, -ML= divide wager by moneyline to calculate payout
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« Reply #66 on: September 18, 2011, 07:32:30 PM »

Forget that it says "fighter" just plug in the moneyline with the appropriate +/- click calculate and look @ bottom of screen, if that fails, going back to original formula, +ML = multiply wager by moneyline to calculate payout, -ML= divide wager by moneyline to calculate payout

Cool.  What a half-assed way to present odds. 
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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #67 on: September 18, 2011, 09:53:02 PM »

By who, me or the website? Would've just suggested to google "moneyline calculator" but for most part all I got were parlay calculators, on games that are just point spreads you can make one bet of 100$ and get back 260$ but you have to win both, this is called a parlay, most ppl consider them sucker bets b/c the proper odds would pay 3/1 (if games were 50/50 as to who would win), pick 3 teams pays 600$, 4 teams pays 1000$.. This also applies to baseball but the math then gets even more complicated. That's where my lack of formal education becomes an issue, however, google might be able to help out

http://www.ehow.com/how_6466353_calculate-baseball-parlay.html
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Round Table
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« Reply #68 on: September 19, 2011, 10:39:35 AM »

Not by you.   Half-assed,   by the odds makers.

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #69 on: September 19, 2011, 01:09:48 PM »

Lol ok, for a second I was like, "WTF does this guy want from me?? I've tried being helpful??"
I've noticed you seem pretty interested in long term prognostications and thought you might find this interesting

http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=baseball
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Round Table
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« Reply #70 on: September 19, 2011, 04:13:40 PM »

Lol ok, for a second I was like, "WTF does this guy want from me?? I've tried being helpful??"
I've noticed you seem pretty interested in long term prognostications and thought you might find this interesting

http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=baseball

Thanks.  I will take a look .

« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 04:24:02 PM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2011, 04:23:43 PM »

Sorry 7 but those can't be right as none of the lines pay more than a dollar. Unless you have two teams that are each -110 or -115 one will pay less than a buck and the other will pay more than a buck
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Round Table
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« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2011, 04:26:52 PM »

Sorry 7 but those can't be right as none of the lines pay more than a dollar. Unless you have two teams that are each -110 or -115 one will pay less than a buck and the other will pay more than a buck

I edited that out but not for your reason.  I'm recalcualting .  But no.

Say odds/$ =.9   you bet $1 and win $.90

Say odds/$=.4    you bet $1 and win $.40.

Screw the over/ under line.  ANyone can refigure these if they want to.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 04:28:59 PM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2011, 05:28:43 PM »

Yeah but you can't have a game where one team pays .90/$1 and the other pays .40/1$, if that were the case the house would be taking 50% juice.. That would be worse than getting blackjack and having to pay the house 3/2!
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« Reply #74 on: September 19, 2011, 06:15:55 PM »

Yeah but you can't have a game where one team pays .90/$1 and the other pays .40/1$, if that were the case the house would be taking 50% juice.. That would be worse than getting blackjack and having to pay the house 3/2!

Yes.  I see.  I'll loosen it up a bit.  A closer look, it seems no one goes more than 2.90-1, so I'll max out there as well,

here goes todays nite games :

Note: these are all odds / $: Anyone can refigure the over/under if they want.
The first odds col. is the team in the first col.  The second odds col. is the odds for the opponent.

                                       OPP
TOR   9/19 vs LAA, 7:07 PM   1.40   0.70
CLE   9/19 vs SEA, 4:05 PM   1.90   0.50
LAA   9/19 @ TOR, 7:07 PM   0.70   1.40
SEA   9/19 @ CLE, 4:05 PM   0.50   1.90
PHI   9/19 vs STL, 7:05 PM   0.20   2.90
ATL   9/19 @ FLA, 7:10 PM   2.90   0.30
FLA   9/19 vs ATL, 7:10 PM   2.90   0.30
MIL   9/19 @ CHC, 8:05 PM   0.60   1.60
STL   9/19 @ PHI, 7:05 PM   2.90   0.20
CIN   9/19 vs HOU, 7:10 PM   0.10   2.90
PIT   9/19 @ ARI, 9:40 PM   0.30   2.60
CHC   9/19 vs MIL, 8:05 PM   1.60   0.60
HOU   9/19 @ CIN, 7:10 PM   2.90   0.10
ARI   9/19 vs PIT, 9:40 PM   2.60   0.30
COL   9/19 vs SD, 8:40 PM   0.80   1.10
SD   9/19 @ COL, 8:40 PM   1.10   0.80



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