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Author Topic: OT Baseball 9/06  (Read 4915 times)
HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #75 on: September 19, 2011, 05:39:55 PM »

More discrepencies w/ your math.. I highly recommend sportsbook.com, for all games that haven't started, at the top of the menu, it allows you to punch in a wager amount, you click the bet you like and it calculates it for you, you don't even need to setup acct, it might seem like I have some sort of a tie to the site but I haven't used it in years (was degenerate enough to play blackjack on the site.. BIG NO NO!) they also have this ridiculous "virtual horse racing" where it's almost like betting on a video game.. I strongly suggest that nobody tries anything besides sports betting as their blackjack and "virtual table games" seem pretty fishy. Just read minutes ago they have virtual scratch tickets!??? WTF?!?
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Round Table
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« Reply #76 on: September 19, 2011, 06:29:03 PM »

No. there are no discrepancies now.  This is my line, period.  These odds are odds to a $, I'm laying against these teams. it is not an over under line.  Take it or leave it.
For example, you wanted 2.9-1 on BAL 2 nite, I'm the guy.  You want BOS , you'll only get $.20 on a $ from me. take it or leave it.

Here's the line as over and under :

BAL +290
BOS -500
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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #77 on: September 19, 2011, 06:51:19 PM »

Ahhh ok, I get it, these are your lines.. Ok my bad I see what you're saying. Are you in Chicago/do you really want to take bets? Because I could bet one side w/ your lines and the other side w/ the book and be guaranteed a profit no matter who wins, I'm guessing this is purely hypothetical?
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Round Table
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« Reply #78 on: September 20, 2011, 03:46:48 AM »

Ahhh ok, I get it, these are your lines.. Ok my bad I see what you're saying. Are you in Chicago/do you really want to take bets? Because I could bet one side w/ your lines and the other side w/ the book and be guaranteed a profit no matter who wins, I'm guessing this is purely hypothetical?


Hypothetical ?  Sure.  Above, such are my internal line.  They don't actually even look like what you saw there, perhaps a little bit.  I'm embarrassed to say, I'm still workin on it.  right now, it's a puzzle.  All I know for certain is The Vegas Line sucks.  

See,
Say you bet TEX all year.  Getting Vegas odds you'd make about 8% on your dough and they are in first place.

Bet the Indians  - maybe 1%.

Bet the Cubs - lose about (-10%).




« Last Edit: September 20, 2011, 09:18:01 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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Round Table
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« Reply #79 on: September 20, 2011, 09:45:37 AM »


Hypothetical ?  Sure.  Above, such are my internal line.  They don't actually even look like what you saw there, perhaps a little bit.  I'm embarrassed to say, I'm still workin on it.  right now, it's a puzzle.  All I know for certain is The Vegas Line sucks.  

See,
Say you bet TEX all year.  Getting Vegas odds you'd make about 8% on your dough and they are in first place.

Bet the Indians  - maybe 1%.

Bet the Cubs - lose about (-10%).


OK, I think I worked out the kinks.  This took all night.

For example,  My internal line  - 2 games 2nite, TB@NYY, TEX@OAK.

NYY -455
TB   +256  

TEX +450
OAK -1250

« Last Edit: September 20, 2011, 09:48:04 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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Round Table
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« Reply #80 on: September 20, 2011, 10:04:39 AM »

OK, I think I worked out the kinks.  This took all night.

For example,  My internal line  - 2 games 2nite, TB@NYY, TEX@OAK.

NYY -455
TB   +256  

TEX +450
OAK -1250



Here's 1 more

LAA @ TOR
TOR +168
LAA -278
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HarnessTheDream
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« Reply #81 on: September 20, 2011, 01:29:32 PM »

I admittedly dislike baseball, I can't watch more than 5 minutes without a cpl to a few hundred on the line so I could be off base (no pun intended), but.. In my opinion, the worst team in baseball beats the best team at the very least 25% of the time, no? After looking at standings, no team loses more than a a 1/3rd of their games, therefore, making any team higher than -325 is kind of insane, no? MLB out of all pro sports probably has the most parity as the worst team never is that big of an underdog when facing the best, no team can beat any other team more than 75-80% of time, agree/disagree? I dont think I've ever seen a team -335 or lower.. In football and hoops you'll see big disparities as the worst teams have an incredibly small chance of winning but baseballs a different beast
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Round Table
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« Reply #82 on: September 20, 2011, 06:24:12 PM »

Here's the line I put together for tonite -

NYY   9/20 vs TB, 7:05 PM      
BOS   9/20 vs BAL, 7:10 PM      
TB   9/20 @ NYY, 7:05 PM   256   -488
TOR   9/20 vs LAA, 7:07 PM      
BAL   9/20 @ BOS, 7:10 PM   335   -769
DET   9/20 @ KC, 8:10 PM   81   -127
CLE   9/20 vs CWS, 1:05 PM      
CWS   9/20 @ CLE, 1:05 PM   -185   116
KC   9/20 vs DET, 8:10 PM      
MIN   9/20 vs SEA, 8:10 PM      
TEX   9/20 @ OAK, 10:05 PM   450   -1250
LAA   9/20 @ TOR, 7:07 PM   -278   168
OAK   9/20 vs TEX, 10:05 PM      
SEA   9/20 @ MIN, 8:10 PM   121   -192
PHI   9/20 vs WSH, 1:05 PM      
ATL   9/20 @ FLA, 7:10 PM   -667   314
NYM   9/20 @ STL, 8:15 PM   -1429   476
WSH   9/20 @ PHI, 1:05 PM   219   -400
FLA   9/20 vs ATL, 7:10 PM      
MIL   9/20 @ CHC, 8:05 PM   -526   266
STL   9/20 vs NYM, 8:15 PM      
CIN   9/20 vs HOU, 7:10 PM      
CHC   9/20 vs MIL, 8:05 PM      
PIT   9/20 @ ARI, 9:40 PM   -500   257
HOU   9/20 @ CIN, 7:10 PM   938   -1000
ARI   9/20 vs PIT, 9:40 PM      
SF   9/20 @ LAD, 10:10 PM   183   -313
LAD   9/20 vs SF, 10:10 PM      
COL   9/20 vs SD, 8:40 PM      
SD   9/20 @ COL, 8:40 PM   121   -192

So far, so good.
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Round Table
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« Reply #83 on: September 20, 2011, 07:20:05 PM »

Here's the line I put together for tonite -

NYY   9/20 vs TB, 7:05 PM      
BOS   9/20 vs BAL, 7:10 PM      
TB   9/20 @ NYY, 7:05 PM   256   -488  ^6 NYY 6, TB 0  thumbs up
TOR   9/20 vs LAA, 7:07 PM      
BAL   9/20 @ BOS, 7:10 PM   335   -769  v5 BOS 5, BAL 4  thumbs up
DET   9/20 @ KC, 8:10 PM   81   -127
CLE   9/20 vs CWS, 1:05 PM      
CWS   9/20 @ CLE, 1:05 PM   -185   116   
KC   9/20 vs DET, 8:10 PM      
MIN   9/20 vs SEA, 8:10 PM      
TEX   9/20 @ OAK, 10:05 PM   450   -1250
LAA   9/20 @ TOR, 7:07 PM   -278   168   ^7  LAA 10, TOR 2   thumbs up
OAK   9/20 vs TEX, 10:05 PM      
SEA   9/20 @ MIN, 8:10 PM   121   -192
PHI   9/20 vs WSH, 1:05 PM      
ATL   9/20 @ FLA, 7:10 PM   -667   314   ^7  ATL 4, FLA 0   thumbs up
NYM   9/20 @ STL, 8:15 PM   -1429    476  v3  NYM 4, STL 2  thumbs up
WSH   9/20 @ PHI, 1:05 PM   219   -400  LOSER  WSH 4, PHI 3  thumbs down
FLA   9/20 vs ATL, 7:10 PM      
MIL   9/20 @ CHC, 8:05 PM   -526   266  v4 MIL 4, CHC 0  thumbs up
STL   9/20 vs NYM, 8:15 PM      
CIN   9/20 vs HOU, 7:10 PM      
CHC   9/20 vs MIL, 8:05 PM      
PIT   9/20 @ ARI, 9:40 PM   -500   257 
HOU   9/20 @ CIN, 7:10 PM   938   -1000   v5 HOU 2 , CIN 5  thumbs up
ARI   9/20 vs PIT, 9:40 PM      
SF   9/20 @ LAD, 10:10 PM   183   -313
LAD   9/20 vs SF, 10:10 PM      
COL   9/20 vs SD, 8:40 PM      
SD   9/20 @ COL, 8:40 PM   121   -192

So far, so good.



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Round Table
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« Reply #84 on: September 21, 2011, 05:17:00 AM »

Not bad.

For 2 nites games , I will narrow down  -

ATL @ fla    7:10  pm edt  ATL+127
PIT @ ari     3:40 pm edt   PIT+170

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Round Table
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« Reply #85 on: September 23, 2011, 03:31:29 AM »

9/23

ATL +105  @ WSH
TOR +170 @ TB
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Round Table
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« Reply #86 on: September 24, 2011, 02:40:03 AM »

Not bad.

For 2 nites games , I will narrow down  -

ATL @ fla    7:10  pm edt  ATL+127
PIT @ ari     3:40 pm edt   PIT+170



Two losers.

9/23

ATL +105  @ WSH
TOR +170 @ TB


Two winners.  


of note:  binoculars
it is possible (use a very small "p")  STL will tie ATL for the NLeague Wild Card @ 90 wins each.  Then they play each other, 3/5.

***********

9/24 Games:
TOR +125 @ TB

« Last Edit: September 24, 2011, 06:44:00 AM by 7474505B » Report to moderator   Logged

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