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Author Topic: All about your handicapping.  (Read 1664 times)
edwardwilliam
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« on: November 09, 2005, 04:42:29 PM »

A couple questions about everyone's capping...

-What track/tracks do you play?
-In what pools do you play most of your handle?
-What would you say is the average price of a horse you bet to win?
-Do you use/keep any type of figures?
-How many races do you play a night?
-Do you rely on wagering for any portion of your income?

Best,
EW
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2005, 04:54:42 PM »

A couple questions about everyone's capping...

-What track/tracks do you play?
-In what pools do you play most of your handle?
-What would you say is the average price of a horse you bet to win?
-Do you use/keep any type of figures?
-How many races do you play a night?
-Do you rely on wagering for any portion of your income?

Best,
EW
too many
all the same
$40.00
no, why should I ?
100 or so
reverse the wagering and income parts and change any to all.

LOL - Unfortunately, this sums up all too many of players today.  I myself have failed many times over the years to keep accurate records.  Only when I became self-employed did I ratchet sown the excesses and keep better records.  It's essential for IRS scenarios to keep records.  Discipline is critical - a struggle in today's world of full card.  Value betting is very important for a myriad of reasons.  I play where I feel I have an edge and can be profitable.  Example :  The Big M is a top value track, but the races are quite tough to 'cap, so you must proceed with caution if you're not comfortable wagering on the product.  Hitting a big gimmick can be like taking some opiate - you must still remember the building blocks to a healthy 'roll -WIN and WP bets.  just a few tips.  TC
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2005, 05:51:33 PM »

A couple questions about everyone's capping...

What track/tracks do you play? 
Balmoral
Hawthorne Grin
I will try the Meadowlands this year.  I haven't been successful in the past.

-In what pools do you play most of your handle?
Win
Pic 3


-What would you say is the average price of a horse you bet to win?
Minimum $9.00
I get real excited when my horse reaches $ 13.00+


-Do you use/keep any type of figures?

Yes,

I use a computer program I look at differential of top picks with live odds.
I attempt to work on spreads which will give me the best value for my money.
I have been doing this for approximately two/three years.
At first I didn't have an idea what I was doing but in the past 7 months I am getting dangerious.
I centered around money management.

-How many races do you play a night?

3 to 5 maybe when I am crazy which is often 7.

-Do you rely on wagering for any portion of your income?

No


In the future my biggest ambition after I retire which is less than 10 years away and is contingent upon $$$, I would love to write the ultimate book on handicapping.  The book is to share my knowledge in how I beat the horses.  It has to factual and correct.  I would tour the country and give seminars at a nominal costs.  There is the biggest condition though, it has to be honest. 

That's me.

Kenneth J. Chadwick Grin Grin Grin



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Dan Nance
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2005, 05:56:27 PM »

[quote author=Kenneth Chadwick


In the future my biggest ambition after I retire which is less than 10 years away and is contingent upon $$$, I would love to write the ultimate book on handicapping.  The book is to share my knowledge in how I beat the horses.  It has to factual and correct.  I would tour the country and give seminars at a nominal costs.  There is the biggest condition though, it has to be honest. 

That's me.

Kenneth J. Chadwick Grin Grin Grin




Quote

Kennrth
                Your retirement should not be contingent upon money if you're such a great capper and plan on writing a book about it. If you're that good you should have piles of money.

                 Are you the best or not? 
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2005, 06:07:57 PM »

[quote author=Kenneth Chadwick


In the future my biggest ambition after I retire which is less than 10 years away and is contingent upon $$$, I would love to write the ultimate book on handicapping.  The book is to share my knowledge in how I beat the horses.  It has to factual and correct.  I would tour the country and give seminars at a nominal costs.  There is the biggest condition though, it has to be honest. 

That's me.

Kenneth J. Chadwick Grin Grin Grin




Quote

Kennrth
                Your retirement should not be contingent upon money if you're such a great capper and plan on writing a book about it. If you're that good you should have piles of money.

                 Are you the best or not? 


I think he's in the process of figuring out the "ultimate" method to beating the horses.

The more I'm around it, I definitely believe it's possible.  Not sure it could ever be captured in book form, however.  Instinct and self-restraint do not bind well.   Wink

Ken: best of luck on your endeavors, we'll have to talk more in-depth later.

Best,
EW
« Last Edit: November 09, 2005, 06:22:03 PM by edwardwilliam » Report to moderator   Logged

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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2005, 06:21:32 PM »

Duplicate Post.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2005, 06:21:51 PM »

Edward
               I feel that I can beat the horses everynight. My only problem is that I can't pass a race. I need to have action every race. Although I do win alot I know I can win more often if I just passed races I didn't like. Another problem I have is that I never bet horses to win. I'm a gimmick sucker and pass up alot of win payoffs and then get burned by a horse that's beats me out of the gimmick. If I bet just horses to win I would do much better.
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2005, 08:19:44 PM »

Dear Dan:

I don't think I said or wrote that I was a great handicapper. 

Give you some benchmarks.

At the handicapping contests at Balmoral and Hawthorne, I come in the top ten percent.

Example if 150 individuals enter into the finals, I usually finished in the top 15.

I will go on record and say I have never won the finals.

There is a rule of thumb in business.  20% of the successful business people make 80% of the money.

I am selective and I thing to be successful in this business you have to do two things:

1) Be a good handicapper.

2) But be a better money manager. Grin Grin Grin

I think EW showed everyone on this site the above two.

Time to go back to work.

Kenneth Chadwick
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redneck
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2005, 10:49:14 PM »

ew

What track/tracks do you play?
The BigM , Hawthorne, Balmoral & Maywood (I miss Garden State Park)

-In what pools do you play most of your handle?
Tri`s mostly but I do well with the pick 4 at the Meadowlands.

-What would you say is the average price of a horse you bet to win?
Depends on any 411

-Do you use/keep any type of figures?
I save all the old programs and tickets in case I get a signer , I`m afraid to check Cry

-How many races do you play a night?
It depends if I`m staying at the track for awhile or just doing a hit and run at the OTB.
One thing for sure  I`ve had little success betting every race, you have to pick and choose your spots especially with so many tracks to choose from.

-Do you rely on wagering for any portion of your income?
Yeah, I get a $30 allowance from my wife so I have to wager carefully!!!
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PickfourNYC
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2005, 11:51:39 AM »

My viewpoints:

Track Size - I personally like "speculating" on the mile tracks only, or any track that generally offers 9 or 10 starters per race.  More horses, more mathetical combinations of exactas, trifectas, implies better value.  It also coincides with the type of races that I also enjoy watching, as I find 1/2 track racing just incredibly boring to watch.

Days of week - preferably I stay away from speculatiing on races beingrun Mon - Wed at all tracks, as the early part of the week cards tend to showcase the "worst" of a track's horses (less form), and more importantly, races run Thursday - Saturday typically find greater pool totals, and better opportunity.  Also, as an aside, racing 6-7 days a week in my opinion dilutes the overall racing product significantly.  My buddy (that owns Jaguar Hall who won the other day with TM), loves, for whatever reason, to bet the Northfield Mon and Wed cards, and personally I feel he's outright nuts. Typically over there they write more $3k claiming races, and NW of 200 PS races, and for these nites, throw about 20 races like this at you to bet on.  Give me a break.

Types of Propositions - I have always favored the exotic wagers (exactas, tri's, etc), but have learned the value of straight win betting.  It's been a tortuous lesson to learn though.  I can't tell you over the years how many $20 to $30 horses I've torched up keying in exatacs or tri's, only to blow up on the number and not taking any money out of the race whatsoever.  That rips you right through the heart.

Favorite Tracks to Bet - the Big M, Hoosier, and Indiana Downs.  I know the last two choices must seem odd, but I perosnally feel there's more flow to the races, and that generally no driver lays down to another driver.  Perhap's it's a combination of many things, but I really believe there's more "trying" therem and have actually done relatively well at these places.

Handicapping Tools - i don't get into the Trackmaster's speed and class variants, because I beleive these things are more valid tools for T-Bred racing.  Personally I watch races, and if something strikes my eye about a particular horses performance, I just jot it down for future reference (and watch replays from Yobet, time permitting). Just the other night I hit a win bet at Northville Downs on a $12 horse (It's a Tough Racket), because this horse had been getting just brutal trips at ID, and I passed on her first time at Norville from the [5] post (which she got terroized from during the race).  Drew inside the other night, just bet win, and caught it.  BTW - I think this horse would be a good claim for $12.5k (before the filly allowance), and is better suited for a bigger track.  Actually threw in a 26.4 last quarter at one of her ID races early in the meet, and that caught my eye at the time.

Favorite Track of All Time - well, growing up in NY, and getting my first flavor of the game in the late70's, it's an easy question for me to answer.  As Stan Bergstein would say, "where it all began where it is today", and he was referring to the fabulous Roosevelt Raceway (a 1/2 mile track with a very long stretch)

Side Story - my single biggest score occurred 19 years ago (1986), and hence the screen name Pick Four.  In between jobs at that time, I was at RR on a Friday night, and bet into the P4 that evening, which at the time was a $3 base bet.  I put $54 into the race, singled the first leg, and used 2-3-3 in the following 3 legs.  The first leg paid $6.80, 2nd leg paid $74 (King Towner - Gary Mosher), and the 3rd leg paid $24 (a Robert Siegelman driven horse from the 7 hole).  Obvioulsy going into the last leg, with 3 live tickets, I was freakin pumped, and I went immediately to the bar area and did 3 shots of Tequila to calm myself down.  As it was, right before the race, there was a late scratch, and back then the rule simply was that it became an "all race" for purposes of the bet.  So, after 3 shots of Tequila, I knew I had 3 winning tickets, but kept very quiet about it, waiting until the race was over.  Once done, and it took an awfully long time to post the reuslts of the P4, each ticket paid $6,300, so it was a hellavu score of $19k off a $54 investment.  At that time I simply pumped my fist in the air, and walked out of the track.  The next night I went to cash the ticket, and it was comical; these tellers knew who I was because I was going so frequently, and because I'm not very tall, they were concerned that perhaps it would be better to give me a check for safety purposes.  To which the exchange went like this (with my large friend in tow of course)

Teller Jim :  You know, you should probably take a check, it might be better for you.
Me:        Jim, do you take my checks when I want to bet?
Jim:      Of course not.
Me:      Then I'm not taking yours, so get me the cash please.

Very teller in the booth, having heard that, was hysterically laughing.  To boot, right after cashing the ticket, and with over $15k in my pocket (taxes siphoned), my buddy and i went to a bar in Westbury, settled in for a night of chicken wings and beer, and watched the Mets beat Boston in one of the World Series game.  It was truly a remarkable 24 hours.



 

   



 
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2005, 12:01:47 PM »

P4NYC, great story.  These are the types of stories and posters the #1 forum in all harness racing needs.  Did you have the last leg covered anyway ?  Was it the entire poll of combos ?  Keep up the great viewpoints and observations.  TC
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2005, 12:25:20 PM »

P4NYC, great story.  These are the types of stories and posters the #1 forum in all harness racing needs.  Did you have the last leg covered anyway ?  Was it the entire poll of combos ?  Keep up the great viewpoints and observations.  TC


Yeh TC - I did in fact have the last leg covered, and it was a winner driven by John Patterson Jr. on the favorite no less.  I have absolutely no idea if it was a "pool' shot, but I'm thinking it wasn't, as I'm gathering more than $20k was bet into the pool on a Friday night at RR.  That was such a wonderful track to go to, so many colorful characters, and of course being in my 20's at the time, such a great time of life.  In looking back at that play (and you know I still have that program as a keepsake), I still can't beleive the Mosher piece paid over $74 (because I really thought he had a decent shot), and did have a $10 win ticket on him anyway. 

There was still more to the story.  After cashing the ticket, and on my way out, I was approched by a trainer of lets just say, questionable ethics.  I knew him indirectly, and he says to me,  I heard you just hit the P4  (now how he knew that I had no idea).  Anway, he was always trying to hustle, so I figure he was going to try to hit me up for some cash.  He didn't, but said rather, to take some of my cash and bet his trotter on Monday night, Race 1, Miss Honey Tag, from the 8 hole.  He told me they'd been sitting on this one for awhile, that he'd been a bit sore, etc., and was ready to fire.   Monday night comes, I have tickets to the Jet/Buffalo game, so if anything, I'd go over to OTB to place a bet.  However, sensibility set in (perhaps the only time in my life), and I said to myself "Am I nuts?  I just cashed for huge dollars, and now I'm going to listen to this guy who's was always angling for something?  Screw him and his info."  So, with about $1,000 in my pocket, I drove right by OTB, never went in,  and went to the football game with my buddies.

Needless to say (of course) when I got home I called the "976" number to get the results (pre computer days of course).  I don't have to say that Ms. Honey Tag won and paid $45, which capped a $600 DD.  When I saw him a week later at RR, he ran up to me and asked me how much I cashed for, and it killed me to tell him nothing.  He told me he, and his silent owner partner (a sports figure) hit the book for about $40k.  I wanted to throw up right then and there. 

   
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