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Author Topic: WHAT MORON MADE WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S MORNING LINE AT BALMORAL?  (Read 720 times)
vegas jay
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« on: May 11, 2011, 07:52:27 PM »

The worst morning lines in racing history were on display for Wednesday night's races at Balmoral.

In races 1-through-9,  the lines were so far out of whack that IF EVERY HORSE HAD FINISHED AT THE SAME ODDS AS HIS MORNING LINE ODDS, it would have been mathematically possible for you to "dutch" each race -- in other words, by betting varying amounts to win on each horse according to his odds, YOU COULD HAVE BET EVERY HORSE IN EVERY RACE AND STILL HAVE SHOWN A PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WON!!!

The morning linemaker at Balmoral obviously is unaware that there is a mathematical component to making a morning line. Either he's unaware, or couldn't care less and is just "mailing it in," spending no more than 30 seconds a race on his morning lines.

The most successful bettors I've known and read about made their own morning lines. I would strongly suggest you do likewise, because if you're relying on the odds of whoever made Wednesday night's morning line, you are truly following a complete moron!
« Last Edit: May 11, 2011, 08:26:38 PM by vegas jay » Report to moderator   Logged
FVRedhot
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2011, 08:26:24 PM »

I was thinking the exact same thing.
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JuiceJunkies
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2011, 09:04:18 PM »

The worst morning lines in racing history were on display for Wednesday night's races at Balmoral.

In races 1-through-9,  the lines were so far out of whack that IF EVERY HORSE HAD FINISHED AT THE SAME ODDS AS HIS MORNING LINE ODDS, it would have been mathematically possible for you to "dutch" each race -- in other words, by betting varying amounts to win on each horse according to his odds, YOU COULD HAVE BET EVERY HORSE IN EVERY RACE AND STILL HAVE SHOWN A PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WON!!!

The morning linemaker at Balmoral obviously is unaware that there is a mathematical component to making a morning line. Either he's unaware, or couldn't care less and is just "mailing it in," spending no more than 30 seconds a race on his morning lines.

The most successful bettors I've known and read about made their own morning lines. I would strongly suggest you do likewise, because if you're relying on the odds of whoever made Wednesday night's morning line, you are truly following a complete moron!


IF YOUR NOT MAKING A MORNING LINE OF YOUR OWN YOU SHOULD JUST BURN YOUR MONEY BECAUSE YOU HAVE NO HOPE.
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2011, 06:55:33 AM »

"making you own ML" is useless.....If you mean knowing what the real chances of a horse are to win a race thats something different altogether......You make an assessment at the time they are getting ready to go if a horse/exacta is paying more than you believe it should be and you wager accordingly......So yeah I guess thats kinda like setting your own ML....Though a ML incorporates (or is supposed to) the takeout also and the ML isnt the ML makers guess of a horses chances to win.....Its his guess of how the public is going to bet the race......People cant understand the concept of value......They dont know that if you think a horse that is 2-1 should be 2-1 and is the most likely winner of the race....He still isnt the right bet if another horse you think should be 10-1 is 15-1.....Bad handicappers always confuse the most likely winner of a race with the horse that they should bet.....If you constantly take less than the true odds on a horse you may cash more tickets but will end up like the rest of the grandstand claiming every race is fixed and every winner is "juiced"......I do agree though ML makers today just mail it in.....I credit Battaglia on T-Bred side.....He is a student of the ML and actually uses the correct formula for setting it
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SHOWTIME!!!
supernaut
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2011, 07:12:38 AM »

An accurate morning line is a thing of the past. The tracks refuse to pay someone who knows what they are doing to do it. MOST tracks make somebody in the racing office or someone who works for the stewards do it. And they know nothing about the morning line except to put down some numbers. Call your local track and ask them who makes the morning line and see how long it takes to find that person. Some tracks even have different people do it on different nights. Most people in management don't care about the morning line. Just the BOTTOM LINE.
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burton
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2011, 08:11:25 AM »

Were there ever accurate morning lines?
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FVRedhot
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2011, 02:25:27 PM »

How about bad charts?  The Meadows is the worst (at least for the tracks I follow).  Whoever charts those races must be blind and retarded. 

Hoosier is usually right on, but check out Race 12 from last thursday (May 5).  They have Who's Unreal winning by 10 and 3/4s ......2 and 1/4 might be more accurate.  They also have Kaufman's animal first up turning for home....that was Trace and Kaufman was sitting 4th on the rail.

Oh well...I guess they are "nice" people who are "intelligent" and have never been "convicted" and most of all "good guys".  Or they epitomize where this sport is.  Your call.
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burton
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2011, 03:08:40 PM »

Good point.
Much more important and never mentioned.
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McElwyns Danger
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2011, 03:57:27 PM »

Woodbine is a top-class operation, but if you compare the Trakus numbers to the chart-calls, you can that the caller is "dragging" the calls a little, (in other words, exaggerating the distance a horse is behind the leader) though this has actually improved over the last few weeks.  But if you want to know real final quarters there, go to the Trakus charts and ignore the program numbers. (Oftentimes the listed 3/4 time in the program chart is actually fast by a fifth).
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supernaut
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2011, 10:59:39 PM »

Were there ever accurate morning lines?

In the 70's at Sportsmans Park and at Washington Park, the morning line was pretty good. In the 80's at Sportsmans Park and Balmoral they were pretty good.
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BEAVER VAN PELT
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2011, 11:58:21 PM »

JUST REVIEWED THE RESULTS, HE HIT 3 OF 10 ON WINNING M/L FAVE'S
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"NOBODY HAS W-2G NUMBERS LIKE ME... THUS, AN EXCLUSIVE INVITATION FROM TVG/BIG M TO COMPETE IN THE 2009/2010/2011 NHHC TOURNAMENT"; ALSO, ASK ME ABOUT REBATE$...
vegas jay
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2011, 08:39:10 PM »

My beef with the Balmoral linemaker last Wednesday night is not which horses he picked on top, but with his absurd mathematical odds calculations for the entire field.

My point is this: If his horses miraculously managed to finish at their exact posted morning line odds, you could have "dutched" each race (betting various amounts on each horse according to their odds and been guaranteed a profit no matter WHO won). That's how badly out of whack those morning line odds were.

I feel embarrassed for the Balmoral morning line maker, because the poor soul hasn't got a clue as to what he's doing. We should all feel embarrassed for him.
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deadly breeze
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2011, 09:07:49 PM »

I thought all morning line makers use a formula. Each different odds is given a numerical value. And the total has to be a certain number. The shorter the odds, the higher the value.
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