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Author Topic: Archarcharch  (Read 3347 times)
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #25 on: May 05, 2011, 04:14:46 AM »

Does Al have some evidence that the world is in fact flat to go along with the 1 hole isn't a disadvantage theory?

when Arch runs well he'll burst HV (and your ballon)

If smarty JOnes had the one hole; he still would have won the Kentucky Derby.

the one hole; while not at all favorable isn't a death sentence.

Lots of horse in the past 10 years had no trouble at all from the one hole just no horse.

 clocker biggestal
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
Horse Voice
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« Reply #26 on: May 05, 2011, 08:21:06 AM »

when Arch runs well he'll burst HV (and your ballon)

I didn't say he won't run well; I said he has a bad post -- and I offered proof.

How can you be touting this horse, anyway, Al? He doesn't qualify on the Weston Beyer Cutoff (I refuse to call that stupid thing a "method").

If smarty JOnes had the one hole; he still would have won the Kentucky Derby.

Nonsense. Everyone knows he would thrown a shoe and finished second to last...

(Hey, as long as we are making ridiculous, unprovable statements, let's at least have some imagination.)

Lots of horse in the past 10 years had no trouble at all from the one hole just no horse.

Really, Al -- how much trouble can a slow, uncompetitive horse get into from ANY post? You can get a beautiful ground-saving trip when you are 2 seconds slower than the rest of the field.   doh

No wonder you need that silly Beyer cutoff -- you can't analyze anything over 7 horses and a $10 exacta, can you?
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #27 on: May 05, 2011, 09:27:26 AM »

To all the benevolent, understanding and compassionate posters here, if one or two horses drop out before the race, do they load the field moved outward from the one gate? Ex: If Mo scratches, do they start loading in the two gate?
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #28 on: May 05, 2011, 09:53:05 AM »

To all the benevolent, understanding and compassionate posters here...

Hardly anyone like that here, so I'll just answer. (Where do you think you are, by the way - a prayer circle?   nyah     )

Don't know if there have been any rule changes specific to the Derby, but in prior years a late scratch meant moving horse IN towards the rail (i.e., scratch the #7, then move 8 to 7, move 9 to 8, and so one).

There -- was that gentle enough for you?   poor baby
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #29 on: May 05, 2011, 09:54:22 AM »

To all the benevolent, understanding and compassionate posters here, if one or two horses drop out before the race, do they load the field moved outward from the one gate? Ex: If Mo scratches, do they start loading in the two gate?

If there is a scratch they would move OUT one spot and use gates 2-20 but if there are two scratches they still only move out one spot....the second scratch they would move in one spot and use 2-19
« Last Edit: May 05, 2011, 09:59:43 AM by HarnessFanDE » Report to moderator   Logged

SHOWTIME!!!
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #30 on: May 05, 2011, 10:05:08 AM »

Here is a video of the 2009 Derby, from which I Want Revenge was a late scratch. Looks to me like the empty gate was #20.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #31 on: May 05, 2011, 10:12:36 AM »

Here is a video of the 2009 Derby, from which I Want Revenge was a late scratch. Looks to me like the empty gate was #20.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv8x9x5A49s

Sure does......I specifically e-mailed Churchill and that was the answer I was given last year......Because I wanted to bet LAL and wanted to know the rule......Im not sure if maybe the gate was moved out farther because the 20 hole was vacant.......But in any case unless the rule was changed last year the perosn who e-mailed me apparently didnt know the rule.......I think I still have that e-mail and I will look for it
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SHOWTIME!!!
Horse Voice
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« Reply #32 on: May 05, 2011, 10:22:51 AM »

If there is a scratch they would move OUT one spot and use gates 2-20 but if there are two scratches they still only move out one spot....the second scratch they would move in one spot and use 2-19

I remember hearing something like this, which is why I worded my answer so carefully, BUT, if you believe the charts from over the last ten years, it's the OUTSIDE posts that get vacated when scratches occur.
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #33 on: May 05, 2011, 10:53:24 AM »

Thanks. With IWR being so recent, looks like they use the one gate. Know he's busy, but maybe Marcus can get an answer.

They really do wedge those starting gates in there. And unlike staggered starts in a track meet, with the outside runners moved up, the auxiliary gate is actually further away.
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nmslim
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« Reply #34 on: May 05, 2011, 10:59:11 AM »

Most gates from the three major makers have fourteen holes.In a field of twelve the one and fourteen are left empty.In the Derby,they use an auxiliary gate they will use every hole in the main,moving them down one.The empty spots will be on the outside gate.The spare gate is usually the one used for gate training in the am.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #35 on: May 05, 2011, 06:16:48 PM »

And unlike staggered starts in a track meet, with the outside runners moved up, the auxiliary gate is actually further away.

Don't get fooled by this. The reason for staggered starts in a track meet is to compensate for ground loss on the TURNS, not in the straightaway.

Simple use of the Pythagorean Theorem will show that if you have a starting gate 100 feet wide, and an entry point into the first turn 1000 feet away, the extra distance the runner in the 20 hole has to cover as compared to the runner in the 1 hole is...a mind-blowing 4 feet (assuming the #20 makes a reasonable attempt to take an angle towards the entry point of the 1st turn).

That's it, though. 4 feet. I promise.

And since the starting gate is NOT 100 feet wide, the angle from the 20 hole is even less severe.

Bottom line: the 20 hole, in and of itself, is no big deal. Now...if you don't clear, or take a tuck, and end up 4 or 5 wide around the turns, well -- you're probably f*cked. But that can happen from just about any post outside the 4 hole, if the pinheads go and spank it up early...
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #36 on: May 05, 2011, 07:06:54 PM »



No wonder you need that silly Beyer cutoff -- you can't analyze anything over 7 horses and a $10 exacta, can you?



have you seen the latest derby list contest standings?

http://www.derbylist.com/contest/cont2011/currstnd.htm

hmmm who is sitting 3rd right now.

3 guesses.  dude

Yes, lovable old me.  dude

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #37 on: May 05, 2011, 07:28:53 PM »



have you seen the latest derby list contest standings?

http://www.derbylist.com/contest/cont2011/currstnd.htm

hmmm who is sitting 3rd right now.

3 guesses.  dude

Yes, lovable old me.  dude

 clocker biggestal

Yep. Here is the list of your winners:

* Stay Thirsty (Gotham), $5.80
* Dialed In (Holy Bull), $7.40
* Dialed In (Fla.Derby), $7.80
* Animal Kingdom (TP Spiral), $8.00
* Soldat (FOY), $4,80
* Uncle Mo (Timely Writer), $2.10

...and I hear that you went nuts and went on a 2 week bender when the 8 buck "longshot" came in at TP.  nyah
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #38 on: May 05, 2011, 07:34:31 PM »

.

4. The 2-hole was similarly disfavored by many connections, yet in that same time frame, the #2 post position accounted for 2 places, 3 shows, and one 4th...all at sizeable odds. In fact, runners from the #2 hole have been on the winning  Derby superfecta ticket since 2006!


a 5-1 Curlin, who was one of the favorites and finished a well beaten third is one of the examples you are foisting on the gullible here.

say it ain't so.

 clocker biggestal
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #39 on: May 05, 2011, 07:37:27 PM »

Yep. Here is the list of your winners:

* Stay Thirsty (Gotham), $5.80
* Dialed In (Holy Bull), $7.40
* Dialed In (Fla.Derby), $7.80
* Animal Kingdom (TP Spiral), $8.00
* Soldat (FOY), $4,80
* Uncle Mo (Timely Writer), $2.10

...and I hear that you went nuts and went on a 2 week bender when the 8 buck "longshot" came in at TP.  nyah

Yeah and made 10,000+ units.

I'd like to see a list of your winners but alas I fear there are none.

 clocker biggestal
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #40 on: May 05, 2011, 07:42:59 PM »

Yep. Here is the list of your winners:

* Stay Thirsty (Gotham), $5.80
* Dialed In (Holy Bull), $7.40
* Dialed In (Fla.Derby), $7.80
* Animal Kingdom (TP Spiral), $8.00
* Soldat (FOY), $4,80
* Uncle Mo (Timely Writer), $2.10

...and I hear that you went nuts and went on a 2 week bender when the 8 buck "longshot" came in at TP.  nyah

Close.

Dialed in (7.80)
Joe Vann (12.60)

is where I made my money.

 clocker biggestal
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2011, 10:22:42 PM »

What the heck does Soldat mean?!
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #42 on: May 06, 2011, 07:46:54 AM »

a 5-1 Curlin, who was one of the favorites and finished a well beaten third is one of the examples you are foisting on the gullible here.

say it ain't so.

Why on earth are you protesting this stat? Even with two horses coming in at 5-1 or less, the $1 superfecta paid just over $29 thousand bucks! Is there something wrong with that amount? Do you realize that you would need to hit over 6000 of your $4.80 "hosses" to earn $29K?

Yeah, Al, take all the shots at me you want -- but jeez, don't make YOURSELF look foolish!  doh
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #43 on: May 06, 2011, 07:48:25 AM »

Yeah and made 10,000+ units.

I'd like to see a list of your winners but alas I fear there are none.

You can waste all the time you want playing for @'s. I play for $'s.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #44 on: May 06, 2011, 07:51:39 AM »

Close.

Dialed in (7.80)
Joe Vann (12.60)

is where I made my money.

Joe Vann drifted up late -- there is NO WAY you knowingly played a 5-1 shot! Your brain would have exploded.  Bomb
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #45 on: May 06, 2011, 07:57:04 AM »

What the heck does Soldat mean?!

"Soldier", in about 5 or 6 languages. Is German one? Jawohl!
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #46 on: May 06, 2011, 01:15:31 PM »

Thank you.  NO one else I asked could tell me.  Now that you tell me I'm surprised, too, because one guy I asked speaks four languages and he couldn't come up with that answer?!
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Mick
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« Reply #47 on: May 06, 2011, 08:21:42 PM »

"Soldier", in about 5 or 6 languages. Is German one? Jawohl!
Russian at the very least.  I had a buddy move to Alaska and lived in a town called Soldatnya.   It was the 60's and he was a radical (well before Palin was born, I dare guess).   He could watch those Russians and ask them what they were doing and shoo them back to Serbia.

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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
Mick
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« Reply #48 on: May 06, 2011, 08:29:56 PM »


No wonder you need that silly Beyer cutoff -- you can't analyze anything over 7 horses and a $10 exacta, can you?
HV - I love your wit and writing style but I can honestly say that I never met you at the track, (that I know of) so I can't evaluate your horse racing methods or logic.

As for Biggest Al, I can honestly say that he is atop notch handicapper and employs methods that I think are logical and wise.  I don't think he gives out all of his best stuff in public (in fact, I know he doesn't).  I've listened to his logic and cannot fault it to any large degree.   In fact, I profitted from listening to him last year at the BC. 

I've listened to other so called gamblers and a mutual friend who is very intelligent but not as logical or methodical as Al.  If ever you happen to see a tall gent in a New Jersey Devils jersey at the track, you may want to ask him about his methods.   
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I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.  Sam "The Genius" Lewin
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« Reply #49 on: May 06, 2011, 08:49:34 PM »

As for Biggest Al, I can honestly say that he is atop notch handicapper and employs methods that I think are logical and wise. 

Al is a good guy. I give him tons of crap for picking chalk, and some of his other ideas are a bit daft, but he is always pretty cheerful and good-natured, lets it roll off of him, gives it right back on occasion.

Just don't tell him I said any of this.  Wink
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