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Author Topic: Archarcharch  (Read 3356 times)
pamwaggy
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« on: May 04, 2011, 04:44:18 PM »

Yikes!   He got the dreaded #1 post!   I felt so bad for the connections with everyone in the room talking about being SO relieved they didn't get that post.

But I was happy for Comma to the Top!  My huge futures are looking better.  By huge, I mean odds not huge money on them.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2011, 04:45:24 PM »

Yikes!   He got the dreaded #1 post!   I felt so bad for the connections with everyone in the room talking about being SO relieved they didn't get that post.

For him, with his running style, maybe not such a big problem.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2011, 05:03:11 PM »

John Court was very upbeat and gracious about the whole thing. 

I heard Albarado got hurt today, broke his nose.  And Borel went home with a fever. 
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2011, 05:05:35 PM »

I heard Albarado got hurt today, broke his nose. 

His wife probably punched him.  Grin
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2011, 05:14:23 PM »

Yikes!   He got the dreaded #1 post!   I felt so bad for the connections with everyone in the room talking about being SO relieved they didn't get that post.

But I was happy for Comma to the Top!  My huge futures are looking better.  By huge, I mean odds not huge money on them.
Could that be one reason they shouldn't have 20? The one post is a marked disadvantage; any horse there is spotting the filed lengths to begin with. At least cut it to 19. Their efforts to increase handle are quite obvious. I'm sure this will stir up another firestorm on the forum.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2011, 05:21:12 PM »

Could that be one reason they shouldn't have 20? The one post is a marked disadvantage; any horse there is spotting the filed lengths to begin with. At least cut it to 19. Their efforts to increase handle are quite obvious. I'm sure this will stir up another firestorm on the forum.

Whether you have 20 or 14 or 18 in the field, the #1 hole isn't helpful unless you have super sprinter speed out of the gate. The rest of the field is going collapse over on you, no matter how big it is. 
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2011, 05:26:50 PM »

Whether you have 20 or 14 or 18 in the field, the #1 hole isn't helpful unless you have super sprinter speed out of the gate. The rest of the field is going collapse over on you, no matter how big it is. 

That's what I'm saying. The one horse has just yards to get over to his right or run into the rail. If he doesn't have that rail to contend with, he just might have the speed to get right in among the leaders. It usually means holding up to find a safe gap, like getting on to the Eisenhower at Harlem Ave. The way it's set up now, there's almost no chance. Go with 19 horses and don't use the actual one gate.
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mottoman
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2011, 05:50:01 PM »

19 horse field one or two post basically no difference!  Lets not over analyse everything.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2011, 05:57:57 PM »

That's what I'm saying. The one horse has just yards to get over to his right or run into the rail. If he doesn't have that rail to contend with, he just might have the speed to get right in among the leaders. It usually means holding up to find a safe gap, like getting on to the Eisenhower at Harlem Ave. The way it's set up now, there's almost no chance. Go with 19 horses and don't use the actual one gate.

Same deal with every #1 horse in America.
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Matchtown
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2011, 06:02:13 PM »

automatic toss
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2011, 06:11:09 PM »

automatic toss

Not exactly a major contender BEFORE this post draw, but as bad as this whole crew is this year, still would not be at all surprised if he won.
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alydar66
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2011, 06:17:27 PM »

Same deal with every #1 horse in America.
Not exactly. Since the starting gate is at the turn the #1 post is a little inside the rail.  If the #1 horse was to run straight out of the gate it would hit the rail.  The jock has to gun the horse out of the gate to get over to clear the rail or take back or hope something opens up before they get to the rail.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2011, 06:22:03 PM »

The mtyh of the #1 post being bad is an urban legend, believed only by little pinheads.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2011, 06:22:12 PM »

Not exactly. Since the starting gate is at the turn the #1 post is a little inside the rail.  If the #1 horse was to run straight out of the gate it would hit the rail.  The jock has to gun the horse out of the gate to get over to clear the rail or take back or hope something opens up before they get to the rail.

Same thing, basically, with every #1 hole, and especially those that begin in goofy spots ... 1-1/16 at AP. 1-70 at Haw ... or consider turf races out of infield chutes, or like for instance the Million, or any quarter horse race in the US that begins in a chute. One lane out would make no difference, IMHO. They would still come down.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2011, 06:26:06 PM »

The myth of the #1 post being bad is an urban legend, believed only by little pinheads.

So there were an awful lot of "pinheads" in that room where they picked posts today. 
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2011, 06:49:20 PM »

The mtyh of the #1 post being bad is an urban legend, believed only by little pinheads.

Not an urban legend at all.

From year 2000 forward, the #1 post position hasn't hit the board...ran 4th once during that time, and THAT was a dead heat.

Looks like the "pinheads" know more than you, Earl.

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Horse Voice
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2011, 06:51:22 PM »

Yikes!   He got the dreaded #1 post!   I felt so bad for the connections with everyone in the room talking about being SO relieved they didn't get that post.

But I was happy for Comma to the Top!

Why? The 6-hole has been terrible: 1 win and no other placings in the last 11 years...almost as bad as the 1-hole!
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2011, 07:28:23 PM »

Not an urban legend at all.

From year 2000 forward, the #1 post position hasn't hit the board...ran 4th once during that time, and THAT was a dead heat.

Looks like the "pinheads" know more than you, Earl.



Yes but how many of them were true contenders. (Like Archarcharch)

2010--Lookin at Lucky-roughed at the start--6-1
2009--Westside Bernie--No trouble--no horse--32-1
2008--cool coal man--no trouble--no hoss--44-1
2007--sedgefield--no trouble--no hoss--58-1
2006--Jazil--swerved at the start--no hoss later--24-1
2005--sort it out--no trouble--no hoss--61-1
2004--Limehouse--shuffled back--made run-not good enough--41-1
2003--Supah Blitz--came out at the start;checked mildly first turn--no hoss--43-1
2002--johnnesburg--no trouble; no hoss--8-1
2001--songandaprayer--showed speed-tired--no hoss--35-1

Besides Lookin at Lucky, which of the other 9 was a seroius contenter for the derby/

 clocker biggestal

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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
pamwaggy
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2011, 07:46:10 PM »

Why? The 6-hole has been terrible: 1 win and no other placings in the last 11 years...almost as bad as the 1-hole!
[/quote)

NO NO NO!  You just had to burst my bubble, didn't you?  RATS!
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2011, 07:59:56 PM »

Yes but how many of them were true contenders. (Like Archarcharch)

2010--Lookin at Lucky-roughed at the start--6-1
2009--Westside Bernie--No trouble--no horse--32-1
2008--cool coal man--no trouble--no hoss--44-1
2007--sedgefield--no trouble--no hoss--58-1
2006--Jazil--swerved at the start--no hoss later--24-1
2005--sort it out--no trouble--no hoss--61-1
2004--Limehouse--shuffled back--made run-not good enough--41-1
2003--Supah Blitz--came out at the start;checked mildly first turn--no hoss--43-1
2002--johnnesburg--no trouble; no hoss--8-1
2001--songandaprayer--showed speed-tired--no hoss--35-1

Besides Lookin at Lucky, which of the other 9 was a seroius contenter for the derby/

 clocker biggestal



1. Johannesburg was well-regarded by quite a few "experts".

2. Jazil might have won with a cleaner trip, but the 1-hole cost him the opportunity. He vindcated his Derby effort by winning the Belmont.

3. For many years, the connections picked their posts, and most every year the 1-hole was the last or second to last chosen...and with far more "no-hopers" than contenders entered every year, the odds were much in favor of a no-hoper ending up in the 1-hole.

4. The 2-hole was similarly disfavored by many connections, yet in that same time frame, the #2 post position accounted for 2 places, 3 shows, and one 4th...all at sizeable odds. In fact, runners from the #2 hole have been on the winning  Derby superfecta ticket since 2006!

(You want anymore awesome displays of statistical firepower and Derby history, Al -- you just let me know.)
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thoroughbred
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2011, 08:14:51 PM »

Does Al have some evidence that the world is in fact flat to go along with the 1 hole isn't a disadvantage theory?
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The Commander
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2011, 08:27:27 PM »

Post #2 cost Curlin the roses. He actually ran the best number, finishing 3rd in the Street Sense derby.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2011, 08:48:06 PM »

Post #2 cost Curlin the roses. 

Curlin was also unprepared at the start, then stumbled when the gate opened, costing him about 3-4 lengths that he almost got back at the end.
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orioles
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2011, 10:20:39 PM »

Yikes!   He got the dreaded #1 post!   I felt so bad for the connections with everyone in the room talking about being SO relieved they didn't get that post.

But I was happy for Comma to the Top!  My huge futures are looking better.  By huge, I mean odds not huge money on them.
OUCHOUCHOUCH but u r still my horse
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2011, 10:53:49 PM »

Good one orioles.   I am still using him in some exotics.
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