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Author Topic: Computer Software Program  (Read 1565 times)
Mick
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« Reply #25 on: December 13, 2010, 09:50:45 PM »

I was just saying that I wouldn't go comparing horse racing programs to Chess programs.   Short of your opponent having a heart attack in Chess, all the variables could be programmed and you could buy a win.  Horse racing has way too many variables and I've seen so many.   (Horses, going to their knees at the start, jocks falling off for no reason, jocks losing their whips, horses jumping the fence or brush)

I could see a benefit to having a program for situational and recreational betting.   If you want a fun day at the track and want to bet every race a program may pick out a horse you might overlook, fore the lack of time.    I was trained to pore over charts of high class races, where the risk of a trainer doping a horse seemed low.   If you don't have two hours to handicap one race, a program is a good approach.   

To be effective, you'd have to understand how it's programmed and updated.   I might buy a program that had good programming and was updated regularly.

 
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Edwarren
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« Reply #26 on: December 14, 2010, 12:43:40 PM »

I was just saying that I wouldn't go comparing horse racing programs to Chess programs.   Short of your opponent having a heart attack in Chess, all the variables could be programmed and you could buy a win.  Horse racing has way too many variables and I've seen so many.   (Horses, going to their knees at the start, jocks falling off for no reason, jocks losing their whips, horses jumping the fence or brush)

I could see a benefit to having a program for situational and recreational betting.   If you want a fun day at the track and want to bet every race a program may pick out a horse you might overlook, fore the lack of time.    I was trained to pore over charts of high class races, where the risk of a trainer doping a horse seemed low.   If you don't have two hours to handicap one race, a program is a good approach.  

To be effective, you'd have to understand how it's programmed and updated.   I might buy a program that had good programming and was updated regularly.

 

What would be a benefit, Mick, would be if Kenneth could loosen up and shake out some of the handicapping secrets he mentioned.  Kenneth has handicapping secrets he's not sharing.

Horse racing is highly randomized.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2010, 12:46:28 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
Secretariat
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« Reply #27 on: December 14, 2010, 01:07:40 PM »

chess programs and horse racing programs have little in common. in chess there are a population of possible moves that the player can make given the position of the pieces on the board. it is a logical matrix for the computer to weave its way through, and thats just what it does. it analyzes the pieces position on the board, and then plays the game out to the end within the program, and then makes the move which will end the game to quickest in a victory. it thinks at least 20 moves ahead, and sometimes more. it is a challenge to defeat the computer, an at expert level a near impossibility , unless you make an illogical move that confuses the program by trading a piece of value for a pawn.

horse racing programs are at best a predictor used to eliminate those without a chance. aniamls are not logical programs, they are alive, and have good days and bad days. all you can do is run the numbers and then see if there is a possibilty that there may be an upsetter in the heap. like a 23 to 1 shot zito horse at belmont running in a field with 5 horses at belmont. its zito, its belmont, its a big time owner...at 23 to 1 , its worth a show bet. as typed before a handicapper has to be familiar fuzzy logic, with the trainers, the venues, the jockeys, and the owners. for instance , a year back, darley was unstopable in stakes races at the end of the year at saratoga. any time a darley horse went out, it was 2nd back off the layoff, impossible to program for, but its darley at toga , and they were winning every stakes in sight, how can you program that.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2010, 01:25:16 PM by My Friend » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #28 on: December 14, 2010, 01:16:42 PM »

my latest program invloved using ragozin sheets and creating regression lines from the rag numbers. it drew linear equations for each horse in the race as a predictor for what the next number in the regression line would be, the race in question.

it was somewhat effective, the picture trend line was something to consider, but it is not a 100% predictor. in the BCC, the rag program had quality road as throwing up a negative 1, the next number regressed in the function. needless to say,both he and haynesfield crept up for the last place finishes.
the bounce, the tired horse, the unliked surface...difficult to account for with digital methods.

the best cappin angles i have found after having devoted many thousands of hours of research into numerical anlysis is the horse for course. especially on track like calder. if a horse likes a surface at a given meet, and has been ITM in 2 races prior to the race in question at the same meet, odds are very high, he will be ITM on the same surface, as long as he doesn't jump up in class an extreme amount of money. there are many other facters you can use and try to score to predict a winner. graded stakes wins over a career, horses like perfect drift and sun king were always ITM, and that is a direct correlation to them bering ITM in graded stakes. they may not have won, but the always filled out the exotics.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2010, 01:26:43 PM by My Friend » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #29 on: December 14, 2010, 01:21:18 PM »

Well, you can't take these things into account in any type of other handicapping, either, because you don't know them. Even the connections know only their own horse, and a lot of the time, the horse will prove them a fool, too. You also don't know who is going to stumble out of the gate, or who has new instructions today, or who is going to get hung up on the turn.

The idea, as in all handicapping whether it's programs or "The Sheets" is probability over a large number of races. That's the idea behind these programs, and why they do (or did) work. They help you identify those situations where you're likely to make you money over the long run, if you get the right odds to go with their selections. They're not meant to accurately predict the outcome of each and every race, or give you 12-1 winners every other race. That's also why they're of just marginal help to the occasional player. While they might be dynamite over a meet, they might bite the big one on the day you're there. Long term probability, and a large number of races, not short term.

This nails it.
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« Reply #30 on: December 14, 2010, 02:05:58 PM »

This nails it.

Indeed. Probabilities long term, AND the odds you are being offered on the tote. The programs makes its graded odds line, and you compare it to what's on the tote. If it's a value as determined by you, you bet it, and if it's not, you don't. What HV calls a "good bet". Same as every approach to wagering. The programs I've used simply give you their odds line to work with, or maybe a graded group of contenders, but they don't "predict winners". Some programs make good lines, and some programs not as good.

One thing I forgot to mention is that it really isn't necessary to build up a huge and expensive database of your own for some of these programs to work fairly well. With a decent track profile you downloaded based on someone else's work, the programs can be big help just with weekend spot play. Problem is, of course, you also have to be in that for the long run too, have the patience for the long-term probability to kick in, and not dump it after two or three losing weekends, which I know seems like an eternity to the casual player.

I'd also mention they work much better with more predictable horses than $4k claimers.  doh
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« Reply #31 on: December 14, 2010, 02:15:47 PM »

I stopped being concerned about if I won on a particular day or a given week.
 My concern now has become a positive ROI at the end of the month and at the end of the year .
It's all about the long-term now.

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« Reply #32 on: December 14, 2010, 02:23:00 PM »


I'd also mention they work much better with more predictable horses than $4k claimers.  doh

Right now I have 4 spot plays in my arsenal and 1 of them is specifically for the TB races at Los Alamitos.
 It's nothing but 2k and 5k claimers but that spot play is the most profitable of the 4 in terms of ROI %.
 I keep waiting for the wheels to fall of it but it just keeps chugging along
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #33 on: December 14, 2010, 03:04:57 PM »

Right now I have 4 spot plays in my arsenal and 1 of them is specifically for the TB races at Los Alamitos.
 It's nothing but 2k and 5k claimers but that spot play is the most profitable of the 4 in terms of ROI %.
 I keep waiting for the wheels to fall of it but it just keeps chugging along

I believe that the kind of handicapping program I was talking about is different than the spots plays or flat bet profit plays you might be identifying from your DB. Yours is a more unique and personal approach, while the programs have to make some generalizations, in varying degrees of sophistication, about the handicapping process as a whole, so that it will work, more or less, with any race and any track, colored by the profiles you choose to apply. Those suffer when the horses are not too predictable.

But, speaking again of profiles, I also found that those worked best when you chose to emphasize or look for just one or two things, maybe sort of like you're doing with your spot plays. Put weight on or consider too many factors, and all they did was come up with a ranking that looked suspiciously like the BRIS "prime power" number. The good prices came when you pared them down to the essentials of what you think is important about a specific type of race and distance and surface.
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #34 on: December 14, 2010, 03:35:08 PM »

What would be a benefit, Mick, would be if Kenneth could loosen up and shake out some of the handicapping secrets he mentioned.  Kenneth has handicapping secrets he's not sharing.

Ed, I am working today.

I have to pay for my bad habits.

Women, horses, tennis, exercising, drinking, eating.

I will attempt to respond later on today when the Boss Man is not looking over my shoulder.


Kenneth 
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« Reply #35 on: December 14, 2010, 03:43:34 PM »

I believe that the kind of handicapping program I was talking about is different than the spots plays or flat bet profit plays you might be identifying from your DB. Yours is a more unique and personal approach, while the programs have to make some generalizations, in varying degrees of sophistication, about the handicapping process as a whole, so that it will work, more or less, with any race and any track, colored by the profiles you choose to apply. Those suffer when the horses are not too predictable.

But, speaking again of profiles, I also found that those worked best when you chose to emphasize or look for just one or two things, maybe sort of like you're doing with your spot plays. Put weight on or consider too many factors, and all they did was come up with a ranking that looked suspiciously like the BRIS "prime power" number. The good prices came when you pared them down to the essentials of what you think is important about a specific type of race and distance and surface.


OK I'm not too familiar with what's out there in terms of software or programs.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2010, 05:23:02 PM »

I've never even considered buying one of those programs.   A racing buddy of ours has, I think, the formulator.  And he get those sheets.   He's always and forever wanting me to "go in" with him on big bets.  He hardly ever wins a dang thing.

Now last week he wanted me to give him a horse per race.  Long.  So I give him a horse.  I can't remember the darn track.  All I remember is that it was the 1 horse and it looked like it lost by a nose.  When they put it up, I was shocked.  (and happy!)   But he looked in the form and at his sheets, etc., and said NO CHANCE.   This is before the race and he didn't use it.  e says let's keep it up.  Start looking in the next race.  I told him no.  He's always asking me for a horse but he never uses it!  I'm done with giving him a horse.  Why does he need me when he has all his sheets?  He pays a lot of money for that stuff.  I don't know, maybe he just doesn't know how to read them.
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2010, 06:51:12 PM »

Here's what I do.
Harness Racing
I use a computer software program.
I play mile tracks.
Therefore I play the Meadowlands.
I don't play Balmoral because of the quality of the horses.

I wait for the horses to have 2/3 races on the track.

Therefore when the meet starts I have to wait for approximately 4/8 weeks before some form develops.

This is my secret here. This took years for me to get this.  Maybe I am a slow learned.
Remember it took me 10 years to graduate from grammar school and in kindergarden every went to first grade.

I create my line.

I look at the numerical ranking of the horses.  If they are within 5 points, I pick the horse with the longest odds within this class of horses.

My odds are from 3:1 to 25 to 30:1.
Now it takes a set of gonads to bet $40/$50 a race when when everthing screams at you saying have you lost your mind?

My plays are categorize in a bundle of races.
40 to 50 races a week with 2/5 plays at the most with 1/2 success.

You have to be patient  for this to work.

I need a decent mutual pool, because I don't want to be effecting odds.

If the Meadowlands don't race, I need a new venue.

That's why the T-Breds.



Kenneth













     
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #38 on: December 14, 2010, 07:08:37 PM »

Very interesting information.  If we ever stay and bet some harness races, it's if we get Meadowlands.
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