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Author Topic: When Zenyatta loses tomorrow...  (Read 1440 times)
Darin Z.
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2010, 03:02:41 AM »

I don't understand why people that love Rachel have to be anti-Zenyatta and vice versa.  Zenyatta's had the better career, Rachel had the better 2009.  God forbid if you say anything other than praising either filly, someone will thrash you.  Rachel put on weight this winter, didnt shed it, and wasnt the same filly.  Zenyatta is clearly more durable, while Rachel at her best was more brilliant.  By brilliant I mean the way she trounced some fields, including the three year old champ in the Haskell.  The only way I will ever put a horse near Secretariat, it would have to be a triple crown winner, who probably goes undefeated and races at 4, because as I said, if you think Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Invasor or any other horse of the last 10 years at their best is better than Secretariat at his best...I'm sorry, but you will never convince me.  I think I am very fair when it comes to comparing Rachel and Zenyatta.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2010, 03:11:32 AM »

Do you know how many fillies have won the Arc in 88 years - 17...Thats almost 20 percent

How many fillies have won the Woodward stakes in 60 years - 1.

How many three year old fillies have won a Grade 1 Dirt Route race against older horses in america in the last century - 1.

Both 1's are Rachel Alexandra.

Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks, and the Preakness (A Classic) - 1st ever to do that.

Zarkava never won an English Oaks, Irish Oaks, 2000 Guineas or Epsom Darby. And she only beat boys once, a race that fillies have won 17 times.

To me...Rachel's campaign was better.
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3 wide and wingin
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2010, 03:17:47 AM »

I hope you don't mean me bashing. I am not.
Don't know enough to really bash.
Rachel won horse of the year in 2009 so people alot more knowledgeable and smarter than me knew something.

Darin its simple. Zenyatta on the best day of her career vs Rachel on the best day of her career. Both of them the peak 100% best
who do you think wins?

I wont even say who I think because I am not knowledgeable enough.

I am guessing you say Zenyatta though.
Shes a rock star. RA is not. But that's public perception not reality. I am talking how a marginal fan like myself sees things.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2010, 03:31:59 AM »

I wasn't referring to you at all 3-Wide...just a general perception.  For example, when Rachel got beat in her first start of 2010, they showed all the people at Santa Anita cheering, and I was distraught. Why? It had nothing to do with oh no Rachel lost.  I knew the second Zardana hit the wire in front of Rachel, there was zero chance of the much talked about Apple Blossom showdown happening, and that Rachel clearly didnt come back the same, and we would probably never see the matchup.  And I am watching this fans at Santa Anita cheering, which to me was so absurd, and quite stupid honestly, because first, whether Rachel won or not that day had nothing to do with Zenyatta, and second they didn't realize or didn't care that the great matchup between them now was done. All they cared about was, this shows Zenyatta is better.  I'm sorry but I would have rooted for both mares to have great campaigns, make it to the BC Classic for an unbelievable showdown, and then may the best mare win.

As far as a race with Rachel vs. Zenyatta in a race, with both at their best it is so hard to say. I break it down like this...

1) Any race on synthetic Zenyatta wins.
2) A conventional dirt race, at 1 1/16th miles or less and Rachel Wins.
3) A conventional dirt race, at 1 1/8th miles, Zenyatta probably Wins, at 1 1/4 miles, she definitely wins.
4) I think Rachel ran two races that Zenyatta couldn't have beaten her, the Kentucky Oaks and the Haskell.
5) Zenyatta ran two races that Rachel couldn't have beaten her, 2008 Distaff, 2009 Classic.

I love both mares, I rooted for both mares to win every race, and I am rooting for Zenyatta tomorrow.
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3 wide and wingin
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« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2010, 03:39:03 AM »

I agree. Its bad for the sport that they will never race. Imagine if Rachel had won all her races and was in the BC classic. We might be on ABC instead of ESPN tomorrow. Would have been such a huge race.
Don't let the fans get you down. They don't know what they are talking about and cheering for most times.
Don't hold it against Zenyatta that the masses are ignorant Smiley
Enjoy the race and I look forward to your Thoth's after the race.
And Ill give you mine from the perspective of a casual fan.
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SandyLoam
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2010, 08:36:45 AM »

Darin Z.
Thanks for saving this thread. I agree with you vis a vis Secretariat.
Didn't Man o' War win one of his racers by 100 lengths?
Except for a Triple Crown Belmont, this is one of the most important single races in many years.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2010, 09:58:47 AM »

She doesn't have to win.  The base that we will have just to watch this race is a plus.
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mel4600
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2010, 10:35:43 AM »

How many fillies have won the Woodward stakes in 60 years - 1.

How many three year old fillies have won a Grade 1 Dirt Route race against older horses in america in the last century - 1.

How many have tried these 2 feats?
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mel4600
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2010, 10:44:33 AM »

 The only way I will ever put a horse near Secretariat, it would have to be a triple crown winner, who probably goes undefeated and races at 4, because as I said, if you think Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Invasor or any other horse of the last 10 years at their best is better than Secretariat at his best...I'm sorry, but you will never convince me.  I think I am very fair when it comes to comparing Rachel and Zenyatta.

Secretariat is 1-2 against older horses on the dirt. You put to much stock on one race. In one breath you talk about "campaign" and excuse Secretariat from it when it comes to greatness. A horse that loses to Onion with "no excuses" is not worthy of the term "greatest". You are entitled to your opinion, however, you sure won't convince me. You have a need to make excuses for Rachel when in reality you were just plain wrong about her. You will never be "great" with just Bullsbay and Macho Again on your resume, no matter what the race. The BC classic is another story. Wink
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2010, 11:05:26 AM »

Nice posts!   Nice way to have a discussion!   I applaud how some of you took this thread and made it one of the best ever about this race/horse.  Not to mention interesting as all get out.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2010, 11:10:14 AM »

How many have tried these 2 feats?

Six more than have tried to win a BC Classic on two different surfaces, a fact you like to hang your hat on. Cheesy

So seven (horses, that is, some have tried more than once), if my numbers are correct, is the answer to the first one.

Edited again to add: There is some pretty intense reading here about fillies/mares trying to win these Grade I races, and how some have, but at age 4 mostly. Interesting stuff here: http://filliesfirst.blogspot.com/2009/08/rachel-alexandra-date-with-history.html
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 11:12:44 AM by brianwspencer » Report to moderator   Logged
brianwspencer
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2010, 11:19:47 AM »

More importantly, to the title of the thread -- if she wins, my tickets will lose for the most part, I'm going to play against her on principle in the toughest test of her career at what is certainly going to be an underlay price based on her real chances.

That said, I'm not going to be particularly upset if she wins (unless I'm sitting on a big pick-4 lol), and it would tell me quite a bit about what she's made of. If she does it, she does it, and it will be good for her fans everywhere and for fans of the game, and I won't be upset about it at all, just strictly from a gambling perspective, I won't be playing her -- but good luck to those rooting for her.

And if yesterday's wagers were any indication, I'm doing her fans a HUGE favor by playing against her...it practically guarantees she will win Smiley
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2010, 11:23:50 AM »

If she does win, I'll admit she's a good mare.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2010, 11:29:55 AM »

Mel - if you think anything about Secretariat is based on one race, then there's no point in my continuing this discussion.  His body of work through his career speaks for itself.  He beat horses like Sham, Riva Ridge, Forego, Our Native, My Gallant, Kennedy Road.  Oh, and Im pretty sure he got beat by Onion when he was running a 102 fever as well. And who is making any excuses for Rachel Alexandra.  Her three year old year was sensational, this year she was an average stakes mare, bottom line.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2010, 11:30:46 AM »

I would normally bet against her because of the price.  But this time, I might not even bet the race.  In my heart, I cannot bet against her, as Chrissy said.  

But I will be watching and pulling for her.  I want her to win more than any horse I ever watched in any race.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2010, 11:42:47 AM »

Here's my final comments - Secretariat at his best, beats anything on four hooves.  Rachel Alexandra's three year old season was the greatest ever by an American three year old filly (Ruffian excluded due to obvious reasons). Zenyatta has had the better career than Rachel due to her longevity and durability.  I think that is more than fair on all counts, and doesn't favor either filly.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2010, 11:45:29 AM »

Here's my final comments - Secretariat at his best, beats anything on four hooves.  Rachel Alexandra's three year old season was the greatest ever by an American three year old filly (Ruffian excluded due to obvious reasons). Zenyatta has had the better career than Rachel due to her longevity and durability.  I think that is more than fair on all counts, and doesn't favor either filly.

Agree on all counts, 100%.
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mel4600
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2010, 11:55:19 AM »

Mel - if you think anything about Secretariat is based on one race, then there's no point in my continuing this discussion.  His body of work through his career speaks for itself.  He beat horses like Sham, Riva Ridge, Forego, Our Native, My Gallant, Kennedy Road.  Oh, and Im pretty sure he got beat by Onion when he was running a 102 fever as well. And who is making any excuses for Rachel Alexandra.  Her three year old year was sensational, this year she was an average stakes mare, bottom line.

Well then, you took 3 races and call it a "body of work". Lets talk about the 4 he lost (I'm not counting the DQ), did he have a fever for all of them? How come he failed to impress against older on the dirt? Forgo was nowhere near the horse he became after his 3 year old career. If you can't beat quality older horses you can't be the greatest. If you can't understand that then its a mute point.   
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mel4600
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2010, 11:57:42 AM »

Here's my final comments - Secretariat at his best, beats anything on four hooves.  Rachel Alexandra's three year old season was the greatest ever by an American three year old filly (Ruffian excluded due to obvious reasons). Zenyatta has had the better career than Rachel due to her longevity and durability.  I think that is more than fair on all counts, and doesn't favor either filly.

I respect you opinion and disagree with it on all counts. One race means nothing, especially 1 1/2 miles on the dirt. As far as Zenyatta goes, watch her today.  Wink
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2010, 12:02:28 PM »

Here's why you don't know what you are talking about Mel. He beat older horses three times. In the Marlboro Cup, he beat Riva Ridge and Cougar II, and in the Man O' War and Canadian International he beat the best older turf horses as well.  So how did not beat older horses? I mean can someone please chime in and explain to me how I have to defend Secretariat???  Just because he ONLY won 16 of 21 races?? His debut he was mugged at the start and made up 8 lengths in the stretch everyone saw it. In the Wood Memorial, he had an abscess in his mouth, and in the Whitney, he had a fever.  Not too mention he ran the fastest Derby, Preakness (the DRF time is correct) and Belmont ever run, and three weeks after winning the Belmont, and concluding the triple crown, he ran again at Arlington and won by 9!  Come on Mel.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2010, 12:05:32 PM »

You are letting yourself get sucked into Mel's meaningless and never ending argument, Darin.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2010, 12:05:58 PM »

One race at 1 1/2 miles??? he won from 5 Furlongs up to 1 1/2 mile! On turf and on dirt! Any of those horses from the 70's...Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed and Alydar, Ruffian, let alone Secretariat, they all go before Zenyatta.  The breed now is completely different. They are less durable, they are bred for speed not stamina.  Nothing from the last 20 years stacks up against the horses I mentioned.
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Darin Z.
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« Reply #47 on: November 06, 2010, 12:09:24 PM »

You're right clocker...enough of this, its Breeders Cup time!
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mel4600
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« Reply #48 on: November 06, 2010, 12:23:40 PM »

One race at 1 1/2 miles??? he won from 5 Furlongs up to 1 1/2 mile! On turf and on dirt! Any of those horses from the 70's...Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed and Alydar, Ruffian, let alone Secretariat, they all go before Zenyatta.  The breed now is completely different. They are less durable, they are bred for speed not stamina.  Nothing from the last 20 years stacks up against the horses I mentioned.

That's your opinion and you are entitled to it. All the horses you mentioned I had placed higher than Secretariat also. We just differ on who should be rated higher. In any event, we will see what the real experts have to say after the race.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 12:35:10 PM by mel4600 » Report to moderator   Logged
MVT
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« Reply #49 on: November 06, 2010, 02:03:52 PM »

Im betting 5,500 to win on Z. crossedfingers
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