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Author Topic: Hawthorne needs to fix  (Read 7393 times)
EasyScore
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« on: November 07, 2005, 08:49:54 AM »

Hawthorne has a big speed bias, if you bet a closer, you have no chance to cash.  Management should do something, else people will start betting elsewhere......   How difficult is it to make the track a fair place to race, bet............    Yesterday, was an exception.....  And don't talke to me about pace, horses go to the half in 45  on the lead and come home in 1:13 and change and still win.  Most races are over at the half mile pole.............  Please fix the track
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2005, 09:49:17 AM »

And don't talk to me about pace.............  Please fix the track

One wire job yesterday -- GIANT speed bias at work there.

Yeah, they should just "fix" the track, to your liking -- especially for such an erudite student of the game, who just outright dismisses pace...and likely, race conditions, wind, temperature, etc., and all of the other factors that have exactly ZERO bearing on a race: Track Bias Is King.

Sheesh.  Roll Eyes
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EasyScore
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2005, 10:04:31 AM »

I stated yesterday was a rare exception, perhaps you need a to take a class in critical reading.  Check the charts daily my friend.  If you are saying that there is no speed bias at Hawthorne, then your opinion is misguided at best.   Learn the game laddie. 
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2005, 10:11:34 AM »

I stated yesterday was a rare exception, perhaps you need a to take a class in critical reading.  Check the charts daily my friend.  If you are saying that there is no speed bias at Hawthorne, then your opinion is misguided at best.   Learn the game laddie. 

Yeah, I saw your flimsy "exception".

Tell me something, Genius -- what exactly is it that the Track Superintendant does to make a speed bias magically DISAPPEAR for one whole day -- and then magically REAPPEAR another day?

"Learn the game laddie": I do just fine at Hawthorne -- you're the one complaining. Maybe you should read a book or two. Start with Tom Brohamer's excellent book Modern Pace Handicapping. Report back when you've learned something.
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alydar66
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2005, 10:18:38 AM »

I would rather have this than Arlingtons dead rail.
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EasyScore
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2005, 10:29:55 AM »

You didn't answer the question.........  Are you saying that Hawthorne does not have a speed bias??  Please read this post slowly.... perhaps you can comprehend its essence. 
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2005, 11:13:20 AM »

You didn't answer the question.........  Are you saying that Hawthorne does not have a speed bias??  Please read this post slowly.... perhaps you can comprehend its essence. 

No. If you knew anything about pace, you'd see that most of the recent wire-to-wire winners are doing so by setting soft fractions (consider the whole race, thank you, not just the occasional sub :22 1st quarter) against mostly inferior competition in the weaker races.

Sunday was an "exception" you say (and speaking of unanswered questions...), so let's look at the 4 wire jobs in the t-bred races on Saturday:

Race 1: Catchthegroom goes 22.31, 46.13, 58.85 and crawls home in 1:12.34 at 2/5on vs. 6 in N3L company. He was the lone in-form legit speed at ML 9/5. In his previous race at Hawthorne, which he won, he went 21 3/5, 44 4/5, 57 2/5, and 1:11 1/5...so in raw terms, he ran about 5 - 6 lengths slower than last time...and still won. 

Speed bias? Or inferior competition?

Race 2: Class N Charm goes 22.75, 47.16, 59.66, and finishes in 1:13 flat at even money vs. state-bred MSW -- a notoriously weak condition this late in the year. Even "Flat Earth Society"-types who disavow the effects of pace on a race would grudgingly agree that if you let anyone stumble home in almost 26 seconds after letting them get away with a 47+ half, they're gonna win.

No speed bias here.

Race 3: Score one for race-riding here, as E.T. suckers the field into letting R. Little Redhead set ridiculously slow fractions early (25.08, 49.49, 114.61!!) en route to an easy win. The only other "early speed" type in the race was Gravano, who failed to fire at 8/5.

See a pattern here yet, Genius?

Race 10: Golden Alphabet gets an incredibly easy lead and is 5 lengths clear after 6 furlongs, setting soft fractions 23.80, 47.21, 112.71, then does get a late challenge from Daytime Pleasure (who made up 5 lengths from the turn to the stretch on a track that "you can't close on")...but Golden Alphabet has just enough left for the extremely unimpressive win.

Saintly Scout was the only real early speed in this race but was clearly a suspect favorite, having hung in her last three races when challenged, so this race was ripe for someone to "step up" and take charge of the pace. Eddie Perez did, and he stole it.

Another field of suspect maidens, and taken off the turf so that muddles things further.

Hmm...maybe the Track Super just made the "Giant Speed Bias" go away for just the weekend?
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alydar66
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2005, 11:15:43 AM »

Yes!  Hawthorne does have a speed/rail bias.  So what!  Dont bet any closers. Where do you bet? Do they not allow you to bet speed horses? Is someone holding a gun to your head and making you bet a closer?  Its part of the game.  
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EasyScore
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2005, 11:38:52 AM »

Thank you Alydar..... HV your lengthy diatribe says it all, you know little about pace or horse racing in general.   But thank you for responding to my post, always good to see experts like yourself make an azz out of themselves.   Have a wonderful day.  No need to reply to this post, but if you cannot control your self, please be my guest.   I am through with this topic.   Hawthorne bas a speed bias and to infer or claim that it does not is assinine.  Learn the game laddie. 
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2005, 11:55:01 AM »

Hawthorne has "favored" speed horses for as long as I have been paying attention to races.

I think some of it is our jockeys. One guy bounces out onto the lead and no one goes out there to challenge even if there's 3 other horses in the race you expected to challenge. There's no move until the top of the stretch. So there's no killing pace and the horses near the front end up in the exacta. It isn't like California where it seems like every lead is contested. Or if there's a race where you expect some horse to have a lone lead, all of a sudden a 45-1 no-hope horse is out there pressing the leader all the way, I guess on the theory that if the jock gets the horse to the front today just might be the day. Or even if there are two or three horses vying for the lead it's not like anyone is really trying to put the other guy away, and the fractions are still soft. I swear there is a rule at Hawthorne that every route dirt race has to go in :24 :48 no matter if it is a hotly contested pace or a lone leader.

Closer horses have a chance it just has to be in a race where, a) It looks like there's going to be some contention for pace, and b) the jockeys actually do what you mapped out on paper. b) is the hardest for me to figure out.
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EasyScore
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2005, 11:59:24 AM »

Terry,  I have a question about Hawthorne, today over 75 horses worked out.  Yet none worked from the gate.  Any explanation??  Or is this just an abberation??  Did the gate crew show up??
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2005, 12:03:20 PM »

Terry,  I have a question about Hawthorne, today over 75 horses worked out.  Yet none worked from the gate.  Any explanation??  Or is this just an abberation??  Did the gate crew show up??

I don't know I wasn't there.

Not all tracks do gate works every day of the week. Have you looked back at old workouts to see if Hawthorne normally does gate works on Mondays?

If it is still a mystery by the end of the week remind me and I'll try to find out next weekend.
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EasyScore
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2005, 12:08:27 PM »

Thank you Terry, good deductive reasoning, I checked last Monday and they did not work from the gate that day either.   Therefore your supposition must be correct.  Thanks again
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2005, 12:10:01 PM »

I'll try to find out anyhow. Now you have ME curious.
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2005, 03:23:27 PM »

Hawthorne has "favored" speed horses for as long as I have been paying attention to races.

I think some of it is our jockeys. One guy bounces out onto the lead and no one goes out there to challenge even if there's 3 other horses in the race you expected to challenge. There's no move until the top of the stretch. So there's no killing pace and the horses near the front end up in the exacta. It isn't like California where it seems like every lead is contested. Or if there's a race where you expect some horse to have a lone lead, all of a sudden a 45-1 no-hope horse is out there pressing the leader all the way, I guess on the theory that if the jock gets the horse to the front today just might be the day. Or even if there are two or three horses vying for the lead it's not like anyone is really trying to put the other guy away, and the fractions are still soft. I swear there is a rule at Hawthorne that every route dirt race has to go in :24 :48 no matter if it is a hotly contested pace or a lone leader.

Closer horses have a chance it just has to be in a race where, a) It looks like there's going to be some contention for pace, and b) the jockeys actually do what you mapped out on paper. b) is the hardest for me to figure out.

Good explanation, Terry.  Easy Score, you have to realize Hawthorne Voice is a little biased as far as bias at Hawthorne is concerned.  He should be more open-minded like me!
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mark_maegdlin
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2005, 04:44:17 PM »

Hi guys, can the general public watch monday's at Hawthorn?  Mark Maegdlin
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2005, 05:16:15 PM »

Hi guys, can the general public watch monday's at Hawthorn?  Mark Maegdlin

I'm pretty sure anyone can watch workouts any day from the area by the horsemens' parking lot. (East side of building.) I don't know about going inside the plant.
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alydar66
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2005, 05:28:14 PM »

I think there is more of a rail bias than a speed bias. More speed horses are going to win because they are usually leading on the rail.  As far as Sundays races. There was a very strong wind out of the west. The wind was in there faces in the stretch. Thats why they were crawling home.  Also Hawthorne hasnt always been a speed biased race track. It used to be in the winter, horses would come from last and be 7,8,9 wide on the turn and win going away. You could always count on that.
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EasyScore
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2005, 05:56:45 PM »

Alydar, that makes sense concerning the rail bias, I have noticed that also.  The management of Hawthorne should fix this problem.   Its unfair to the owners with horses that come off the pace. 
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2005, 06:04:17 PM »

Alydar, that makes sense concerning the rail bias, I have noticed that also.  The management of Hawthorne should fix this problem.   Its unfair to the owners with horses that come off the pace. 

Yesterday it seemed like they were all trying to stay a few paths OFF the rail.

Alydar doesn't agree with me but my opinion is that, at least for the last 10 years or more, Hawthorne and its jockeys have always played this way. It's nothing that just happened this year. Those races with the outside horses swooping from last, those are what we call the "outside box" races, generally real cheapies where the front runners die and everyone behind them gets bottled up, so what's still running on the outside gets up. IMHO.

Every track plays to fronrunners somewhat. They don't get in trouble, they don't get blocked, and they don't have sand in their eyes. Sandier tracks like Haw are even harder on horses than tracks with less sand, like AP.

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big wally
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2005, 06:57:47 PM »

During the  80's and i do not know when this changed was a dead back(deAD RAIL) track in November and December. When the whether was cold the more they closed. I have not noticed this trend over the last decade. Anybody know why? Is it because the winters are milder, track surface, chemicals on track?  If you indentify a bias at track why would  you complain it is huge advantage.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2005, 08:38:31 PM »

If you indentify a bias at track why would  you complain it is huge advantage.

I love it when I find a speed biased track, too -- usually pretty easy money after you throw out the usual 3/4 of a field that has no chance over such a surface.

That just hasn't been Hawthorne lately -- winners are coming from everywhere. Don't believe me, fine -- don't watch any race replays, don't look at any charts, keep complaining, and keep LOSING.

A closer that can't win vs. the weak-assed level of competition Chicago racing has this time of year probably won't ever win, anywhere, because they are conditioned by guys who can't train a gopher to run down a hole. It's always easier to blame the track...and keep the owners paying and paying and paying: "someday...someday...when they fix the track, we'll get 'em...um, this month's bill is $3200".
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EasyScore
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« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2005, 09:25:33 PM »

Now I realize what they meant by the Missing Link................
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2005, 07:07:37 PM »

Easyscore and/or Liimogirl with 2 ii's:

Today I asked the head starter about gate works and he said they didn't do them on Mondays and Tuesdays which are non-racing days thus days off for the gate crew. Another deep racing mystery solved. Smiley
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Parker
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2005, 09:43:52 AM »

The track is hard, and it does seem to favor speed horses.  Stinks in the mornngs, a few holes, very hard, and rough on the horses. 
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