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Author Topic: 10th at Monmouth 7/5--the anti wise guy hoss  (Read 987 times)
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« on: July 05, 2010, 07:11:35 AM »

His name is #3 EH Indy. shipping into Belmont. Impressive turfer with a sterling pedigree

since HV and I have been agruing about a certain phenonom, this is the hoss.

10-1ML Very competive overnight stakes.

He'll run very good today....

last too far too soon against older.

Now drops into a 3 year old condition.

Very impressive final fraction on May 15th.

 clocker biggestal
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2010, 11:18:27 AM »

His name is #3 EH Indy. shipping into Belmont. Impressive turfer with a sterling pedigree
since HV and I have been agruing about a certain phenonom, this is the hoss.
10-1ML Very competive overnight stakes.
He'll run very good today....Very impressive final fraction on May 15th.

Sterling pedigree, yes (much better than The Cognac Kid the other day), but he's the slowest horse in the field.

His ML is 6-1, not 10-1, so he's more than likely to be an underlay, when the late-bidding suckers buy him back late, down closer to his ridiculously low ML.
 
How many times are you going to get fooled by fast fractions from one-turn "routes" at Belmont, Al? The reason your wonder "hosses" aren't able to duplicate these efforts elsewhere is because in two-turn routes, horses usually have to exchange energy earlier in the race to gain needed position --this just isn't the case at Belmont, where the race you cite went a sleepy :25 3/5 :51 2/5 and 1:16 3/5 before anybody actually ran a step. Bad comparison.

Thunder Brew is the horse to beat here, and the main opposition if Pletcher's horse in the one-hole, Fantastico Roberto. E.H. Indy could schlepp up for 3rd I suppose, but that describes the entire rest of the field too, so, large charge.

:::yawn:::
« Last Edit: July 05, 2010, 07:23:06 PM by Horse Voice » Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2010, 06:40:49 AM »

Sterling pedigree, yes (much better than The Cognac Kid the other day), but he's the slowest horse in the field.

His ML is 6-1, not 10-1, so he's more than likely to be an underlay, when the late-bidding suckers buy him back late, down closer to his ridiculously low ML.
 
How many times are you going to get fooled by fast fractions from one-turn "routes" at Belmont, Al? The reason your wonder "hosses" aren't able to duplicate these efforts elsewhere is because in two-turn routes, horses usually have to exchange energy earlier in the race to gain needed position --this just isn't the case at Belmont, where the race you cite went a sleepy :25 3/5 :51 2/5 and 1:16 3/5 before anybody actually ran a step. Bad comparison.

Thunder Brew is the horse to beat here, and the main opposition if Pletcher's horse in the one-hole, Fantastico Roberto. E.H. Indy could schlepp up for 3rd I suppose, but that describes the entire rest of the field too, so, large charge.

:::yawn:::


ah I wish EH Indy had a run but alas he was scratched. Just put him into your stable mail for his next run, he give a good account of himself.

 clocker biggestal
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2010, 06:49:27 AM »


 
How many times are you going to get fooled by fast fractions from one-turn "routes" at Belmont, Al? The reason your wonder "hosses" aren't able to duplicate these efforts elsewhere is because in two-turn routes, horses usually have to exchange energy earlier in the race to gain needed position --this just isn't the case at Belmont, where the race you cite went a sleepy :25 3/5 :51 2/5 and 1:16 3/5 before anybody actually ran a step. Bad comparison.


I disagree its the way that most turf races are run. slow early fast late. More energy is expended with turf winners late rather than early. Kickers beat one pacers in most turfers.

 clocker biggestal
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
Horse Voice
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2010, 10:27:54 AM »


ah I wish EH Indy had a run but alas he was scratched. Just put him into your stable mail for his next run, he give a good account of himself.

 clocker biggestal

Not in stakes company, he won't.

His connections looked at the field, knew the "hoss" was in over his head, and wisely scratched him.

Look for him in N1X next time -- where he belongs.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2010, 10:36:50 AM »

I disagree its the way that most turf races are run. slow early fast late. More energy is expended with turf winners late rather than early. Kickers beat one pacers in most turfers.

Except this one in question, that was wired.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2010, 10:39:23 AM »

I disagree its the way that most turf races are run. slow early fast late. More energy is expended with turf winners late rather than early. Kickers beat one pacers in most turfers.

 clocker biggestal

You've been saying this for years -- and it sounds catchy -- but do you ever check it against actual results?

ESPECIALLY at a place with a quirky turf course like Monmouth, where you sometimes find yourself outside the "crown" if you are only as wide as the 3-path!

Monmouth Turf Winning Styles
Monday, 7/5: front / press: 2; middle move: 1 (was over at the 1/8 pole, though, so no "late kick"); closers, 0

Sunday, 7/4: front / press: 2; middle move: 1; closers: 1

Saturday, 7/3: front/press: 0; middle move: 3; closers: 1  

Friday, 7/2: front/press: 3; middle move: 0; closers: 0

It's only 4 days of results, true, but it is quite the opposite of what you promulgate about turf racing.

(Hell, now that I think of it, you needed speed in most of the turf races at the most recent Royal Ascot meeting -- the front was *the place* to be, at all distances; for the most part, plodders with late kick didn't do shit this year!)

I don't know, bud -- either you need a new catch phrase, or you need to pay closer attention to what is happening right under your nose at your home track, because "kickers ain't beating much lately". "LOL" 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2010, 10:42:50 AM by Horse Voice » Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2010, 03:43:39 PM »



I don't know, bud -- either you need a new catch phrase, or you need to pay closer attention to what is happening right under your nose at your home track, because "kickers ain't beating much lately". "LOL"


Better tell that to the connections of chinchon in the United Nations :-) who closed from last place (wide). Had no problems closing wide. :-) dude

Thats the horse who I backed (bet you chumped on one of the speed horses acclimation I bet at and overlaid 6-1 LOL)

http://community.tvg.com/t5/Monmouth-Park/Race-10-Mon/m-p/207625#M534

Kickers do beat one pacers speed types in most of the big races around the world that are run on grass. did you see conduit mow down PP with ease in the turf last year  Or goldikova move on the BC field in 2008.

 clocker biggestal

PS--I do agree however that Monmouth has been kind to speed this year. My scoreboard 61% speed 39% closers. However the bettors have already made their adjustment for that. still many, many overlays in closers at monmouth.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2010, 03:50:25 PM by CLOCKERbiggestal » Report to moderator   Logged

Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
Horse Voice
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2010, 04:03:34 PM »

Better tell that to the connections of chinchon in the United Nations :-) who closed from last place (wide). Had no problems closing wide. :-) dude

Thats the horse who I backed (bet you chumped on one of the speed horses acclimation I bet at and overlaid 6-1 LOL)

Yeah, that was one of the closers. Maram was the other deep closer. That's TWO deep closers for the whole weekend, out of FOURTEEN turf races...and you have the balls to come out here and crow about betting one of them?

How about telling us how the "kickers" let you down in the other 12 turf races? The 6-1 you got on Chinchon wasn't enough to pay for all of those other losers.

Kickers do beat one pacers speed types in most of the big races around the world that are run on grass. did you see conduit mow down PP with ease in the turf last year  Or goldikova move on the BC field in 2008.

Or, how Goldikova went right to the front and held off a deep closing Paco Boy at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago...OOPS!

See, that's the problem with banal statements like "Kickers almost always beat one pacers": a) it isn't quantifiable, which makes it, b) meaningless.

PS--I do agree however that Monmouth has been kind to speed this year. My scoreboard 61% speed 39% closers. However the bettors have already made their adjustment for that. still many, many overlays in closers at monmouth.

Overlays are only of interest to me if they win AND pay enough for the losers. 2 out of 14 is a pathetic strike rate for what you seem locked in on as a "dominant" running style, and that's only if you are on the CORRECT couple of closers! At that rate, you'd need a good 15 or 20-1 on every closer you bet, and I know you can't possibly pull the trigger on a horse with odds that high; I've seen your selections over the years, here and on @derby, and you just don't have it in you.
 
If they don't get some water on that turf course at Monmouth for you pretty soon, the only thing the "kickers" there are going to be kicking are your ass and your bankroll.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2010, 08:14:28 PM »



Or, how Goldikova went right to the front and held off a deep closing Paco Boy at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago...OOPS!

See, that's the problem with banal statements like "Kickers almost always beat one pacers": a) it isn't quantifiable, which makes it, b) meaningless.


Goldikova very versitle making her one of the very best ever. and yes she has one nasty kick.  final fractions mean more in turf racing than in dirt , I am sure you'll agree to that.

 clocker biggestal

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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2010, 09:37:56 PM »

final fractions mean more in turf racing than in dirt , I am sure you'll agree to that.


Not under that limited banner, I won't. Too little information.

I've seen guys come and go over the years. Some have been overly fixated on first 1/4 times -- the "early speed" weenies. Others have been focused on the second call, sometimes called "turn time", or the less subtle "ability time" (Sartin? Mitchell? can't remember). You, Al, pay alot of attention to final fractions.

I've got news for all of you -- you're all wrong, or at least partly wrong, because you are too busy looking at only one part of the race, one component...when you need to be looking at the WHOLE race, in an effort to assess what "shape" the race will take.

The race shape is greatly influenced by the MIX of horses that show up for a given race, and also, the way the RACETRACK has been playing lately (yes, the dreaded "B" word -- the Bias). The local jock colony plays a part, to a smaller extent. 

Just as a quick example, Al, consider this: if every remaining turf race at Monmouth for the rest of the meet contains only one legit early speed type, and no one that can go take the sting out that front-runner...and the course stays as glib and front as it was this past weekend, just how many deep closers do you think will win on the turf? Damn few, if any.

The reason is that in this example, a horse with no early speed but fast final fractions is as useless as tits on a bull -- by the time he finally gets his ass in gear, he will have 8 or 9 other quitters puking right in his face, and the front-runner will be long gone.

Only if you have the right mix of horses in a race, and a fair to soft and maybe even boggy turf course do the horses with fast final fractions become a factor -- and even then, they tend to need a clean, uneventful trip in order to get up for the win. IMO, that tends to one taking on too much risk for too little reward, which is the best way to always get the worst of it.
 
Don't feel bad, Al -- I used to be fascinated with the deep closing types, too, until I could no longer ignore the fact that they were destroying my bankroll. Maybe I'll schedule an intervention for you, and we will get you back on the path to winning at the races.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2010, 05:49:37 PM »

You've been saying this for years -- and it sounds catchy -- but do you ever check it against actual results?



Ok I am game how many of them turf route races over the weekend were won by the horse with the best final fraction kickers vs one-pacers (speed up front)

Looks to me most of the winners had the best final fractions. maybe you could post those results of the races. for instance National Kid (one pacer) beat Roman Tiger (kicker). Thats one result in the one pace category.

But Three Emeralds had the best final fraction by far and won. thats a result in the kicker category.

you might not like the results of this little test HV.

 clocker biggestal




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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2010, 10:31:15 PM »

But Three Emeralds had the best final fraction by far and won. thats a result in the kicker category.

Huh? Best final fraction "by far"? He doesn't even have the best final fraction!

Three Emeralds came home in a rather ordinary :24.2 (after making a strong MIDDLE MOVE, btw); they won't be making any comparisons between him and Silky Sullivan anytime soon.

You only have to look at the second-place finisher in the race, Late For Class, to find a horse that put up a better final fraction (:24.1), so for this race your little saying is meaningless.

you might not like the results of this little test HV.

I think it's YOU that's going to wish we didn't explore this little ditty of yours more closely -- we are going to find out what I already suspect: sometimes "kickers" (those with the best final fraction) win, and sometimes "one pacers" (the front speed) wins, but most of the time, it's "something else" -- neither the front speed nor the best closer.

That's the problem with pithy little racetrack "truisms": they fall apart upon close examination, because they are simply not true!
 
Now, if you want a racetrack saying that REALLY works, listen close. I'm not going to say it very loud, because I don't want to give it away to everybody:

"Bet the GRAY -- they never lose!"
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2010, 10:34:29 PM »

Now, if you want a racetrack saying that REALLY works, listen close. I'm not going to say it very loud, because I don't want to give it away to everybody:

"Bet the GRAY -- they never lose!"

What? Grays lose all the time.

Doesn't it have to be a cloudy day, or a rainy day, or muddy, or the horse just took a dump, or something, for grays to be unbeatable?
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2010, 10:54:00 PM »

What? Grays lose all the time.

Doesn't it have to be a cloudy day, or a rainy day, or muddy, or the horse just took a dump, or something, for grays to be unbeatable?

Now, how are any of these little racetrack sayings going to hold up if you are going to come around with your questions and facts and statistics and stuff? Cretin.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2010, 11:18:02 PM »

Now, how are any of these little racetrack sayings going to hold up if you are going to come around with your questions and facts and statistics and stuff? Cretin.

Well, honestly, I thought the saying was, "Bet the gray on a cloudy day" or some such, not just "Bet the gray". Who ever heard of plain old "Bet the gray" as the road to riches? Not me. Now, "Bet the 4", that one has some confirmed basis in reality, but not just "Bet the gray" without any qualifier.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2010, 04:07:45 AM »

Huh? Best final fraction "by far"? He doesn't even have the best final fraction!

Three Emeralds came home in a rather ordinary :24.2 (after making a strong MIDDLE MOVE, btw); they won't be making any comparisons between him and Silky Sullivan anytime soon.

You only have to look at the second-place finisher in the race, Late For Class, to find a horse that put up a better final fraction (:24.1), so for this race your little saying is meaningless.


LOL. That is simply not true.

Three Emeralds at the 3/4 pole was 9th beaten 4.5 lengths in 111.4 Approx.
Finish 135.1 final fraction 23.2 Approx

Late for Class For Class final fraction was 23.4 Approx

Better learn how to figure out final fractions HV before poo-poohing them. LOL

 clocker biggestal
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2010, 07:12:03 AM »

Three Emeralds at the 3/4 pole was 9th beaten 4.5 lengths in 111.4 Approx.
Finish 135.1 final fraction 23.2 Approx

Late for Class For Class final fraction was 23.4 Approx

I confess to being tired when I looked at the chart. I mistakenly used the lengths beaten at the stretch call instead of the 3/4 call in my computations.

You are right this time, but it doesn't change anything: one result doesn't prove to so-called "rule". We could go through 1000 races and find that neither the front runner nor the horse with the fastest final quarter won the race; horse racing just isn't that simple.
 
Even if your little catch phrase WERE true, then there is the little matter of determining who will a) run the fastest final time TODAY, and then b) annnouncing / wagering on said horse BEFORE the race...instead of pulling the little redboarding job like you did with Chinchon. Telling us who won with the fastest final quarter (with the obligatory "I had 'em!") AFTER the race, is pretty weak sauce. 
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2010, 07:36:01 AM »

OK, time to road test Al's catch phrase: "Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time".

I did the last two days at Monmouth; all I have time for right now.

I will list date, race #, and any pertinent notes regarding the "fastest final fraction" horses

7/4, Race 2, 5.5 turf sprint with no fractions given, reasonable to think winner had fastest FF

7/4, Race 4, fastest FF was 5th place finisher Themnmythlegend

7/4, Race 6, fastest FF was 2nd place finisher All About Alex

7/4, Race 10 Maram (winner @ 1.20-1) and Mystic Miracle (4th @ 10.70-1) tied for fastest FF

7/5, Race 3, fastest FF was Roman Tiger, a non-threatening 3rd at 4/5on.

7/5, Race 5, fastest FF was the winner Three Emeralds.

7/5, Race 10 WIRE, fastest FF was They Call Me Giant, 2nd at 3-1.

Summary: 3 "Kickers" won in 7 turf races. A small sample, but I'd expect better from such a "dominant" rule.

Al, you can do the other days for which charts are still available if you want. I already see the trend I expected to see: kickers win some, wire jobs win some, and "other" win some -- no hard and fast "rule" here, just an old, worthless saying like "Bet The Gray" or "Bet Samyn On The Green". "LOL". The TV show Mythbusters should send me a check for doing their work. "LOL".


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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #19 on: July 08, 2010, 11:38:22 AM »

I think I can solve this:

Al, you just change your .sig to "Kickers beat one-pacers some of the time.", and everyone is happy.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2010, 12:31:51 PM »

I think I can solve this:

Al, you just change your .sig to "Kickers beat one-pacers some of the time.", and everyone is happy.

Don't hold your breath. Al's got the same couple of years of racing experience twenty or more times over, and you wouldn't want him to start tinkering with his 1960's era racing dogma now.
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