Chicago Barn to Wire
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


November 21, 2014, 11:56:28 AM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: 1 2 [3]  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: I MET A GUY WHO CLAIMS.........  (Read 6560 times)
edwardwilliam
Annnnnnnnnd they're off!
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6252

Rebate shops are not the devil.


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #50 on: March 08, 2006, 11:19:45 AM »

however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop?

It's exactly the same formula, except the LOCAL takeout is used, and it's applied differently.

The key: if you are betting a non-favorite, the place or show price will nearly always be the same or higher -- so you can use the old formula, and you will either (99 times of a 100) get the conventional price or better.

Best,
EW
Report to moderator   Logged

Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
RK
Guest

« Reply #51 on: March 08, 2006, 07:59:33 PM »

Who remembers a race I want to say 6 or so years ago? I'm thinking the horse was Champion on ice??? (maybe)  was 1-9 and broke, the show payouts where nuts. Like 120......90.....and 85? Help me out.

I remember a horse by the name of "First Crush" @ Maywood about that time, someone threw 100K
to show on him he broke at the start and came back to win by a nose.
If I recall it was the first time on the half miler too! (crazy or stupid, your call)

RK
Report to moderator   Logged
Brian Collier
Full Member
***
Posts: 237




Ignore
« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2006, 09:27:01 PM »

I tracked my top pick for The BigM Fri, Sat, Sun, and Dover Monday.


Friday BigM- 9 for 12 show....Average show pay=2.75
Satay BigM- 11 for 13 show...Average show pay=4.10
Sun   BigM-  6 for 11 show....Average show pay=3.50
Mon Dover- 9 for 15  show....Average show pay=3.40

Total- 35 for 51= 68.6%   Average show pay=$3.47

$2 wagers= $102 wagered with a 121.50 return

Anyone else keep track of their picks?
Report to moderator   Logged
Harness fan
Full Member
***
Posts: 218




Ignore
« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2006, 04:09:01 AM »

wow, B.C. I would have guessed that the money would have come out better...That is alot of work to get back like 16.25...Looks like back to the drawing board. But if you pick certain races rather than a majority of them Istill think you can grind it out but it does look more difficult than I even thought.
Report to moderator   Logged
Brian Collier
Full Member
***
Posts: 237




Ignore
« Reply #54 on: March 14, 2006, 04:54:08 AM »

wow, B.C. I would have guessed that the money would have come out better...That is alot of work to get back like 16.25...Looks like back to the drawing board. But if you pick certain races rather than a majority of them Istill think you can grind it out but it does look more difficult than I even thought.

There is alot more profit to be made that I haven't finished putting all the figures together yet Harness Fan. I'll put them together in a few minutes and give you the figures, I'll PM them to you. I did have a horrible day Sunday, primarily because I suck at picking NW2-4 and trotters. Also remember if them were $20 wagers, that's a profit of $194, if the extra $20 hit doesn't bump down the show payoff.

Friday was a low average payoff because there were some 2.10 and 2.20 payouts that you just couldn't avoid because of fox valley horses. Saturday Hop Sing was a 2.10 payout, but I had some huge hits up to 7.80. Dover is a track I don't primarily pay much attention to, so I didn't know much about the horses, but I did notice they had some longer shots coming in alot yesterday.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2006, 05:26:10 AM by Brian Collier » Report to moderator   Logged
edwardwilliam
Annnnnnnnnd they're off!
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6252

Rebate shops are not the devil.


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #55 on: March 14, 2006, 01:08:39 PM »

There is alot more profit to be made that I haven't finished putting all the figures together yet Harness Fan. I'll put them together in a few minutes and give you the figures, I'll PM them to you. I did have a horrible day Sunday, primarily because I suck at picking NW2-4 and trotters. Also remember if them were $20 wagers, that's a profit of $194, if the extra $20 hit doesn't bump down the show payoff.

Friday was a low average payoff because there were some 2.10 and 2.20 payouts that you just couldn't avoid because of fox valley horses. Saturday Hop Sing was a 2.10 payout, but I had some huge hits up to 7.80. Dover is a track I don't primarily pay much attention to, so I didn't know much about the horses, but I did notice they had some longer shots coming in alot yesterday.

Your ROI would be much better if you followed a couple guidelines:

-don't bet the race unless your MINIMUM show payout is $4...unless you believe a favorite will be off the board, then accept a MIN of $3
-pay special attention to the "inside 3" on any half, and give strong consideration to playing ANY of these that are paying a minimum of above $5
-do not bet 6 horse (or less) fields

Just my opinion.  Eventually, your current method will turn out to be a futile one.  How do I know this?  Think about it -- ONE bad night (2 or 3 for the card) will wipe out about two or three WEEKS of above average nights.

Although, it may be a learning experience to track it, just so you can see this occur for yourself.

Best,
EW
Report to moderator   Logged

Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
fineline
Guest

« Reply #56 on: March 14, 2006, 01:34:37 PM »

I Will Like you to send that guy to me If he is intrested.I will give him 10% back on his losses and give you a piece. Fineline ps he must post I will Also post up to $10,000
Report to moderator   Logged
Brian Collier
Full Member
***
Posts: 237




Ignore
« Reply #57 on: March 14, 2006, 04:32:42 PM »

Your ROI would be much better if you followed a couple guidelines:

-don't bet the race unless your MINIMUM show payout is $4...unless you believe a favorite will be off the board, then accept a MIN of $3
-pay special attention to the "inside 3" on any half, and give strong consideration to playing ANY of these that are paying a minimum of above $5
-do not bet 6 horse (or less) fields

Just my opinion.  Eventually, your current method will turn out to be a futile one.  How do I know this?  Think about it -- ONE bad night (2 or 3 for the card) will wipe out about two or three WEEKS of above average nights.

Although, it may be a learning experience to track it, just so you can see this occur for yourself.

Best,
EW

Absolutely.

First off, do you know the best way to track the show pools before post? Some tracks show them right before post, but I noticed in the past, such as Balmoral, they would put them up for a few seconds, I used to have my ex-girlfriend tell me them while I wrote them all down, just in case there was an overlay.

As far as playing nothing less than 7 horse fields, I would rather ONLY play 9-10 horse fields, and sometimes 8. Playing the inside 3 on a half and them paying $5.00 is a good idea, I really don't play half-milers much anymore. 

If there's a non heavily bet favorite, then does it matter if they make the board? I thought a favorite would only kill the price if he's a $2.10 payout.

Yes, I will keep tracking this until I see that it doesn't work, EXCEPT, I'm going to keep track of also doing 2 race parlays on them, which is what I had also done this weekend. 3 race parlays was what I had thought of doing, but realized, if a few bigger ones come in, you'll just kill the price of the 3rd one.
The 2 race parlays would have netted me $309 profit minus payouts that might become lower, for $20 wagers.

Doing this method I found that on a bad day such as my BigM Sunday, I lost more than doing straight wagers, BUT I believe that on good days that my profit will be alot higher, that will be alot more profit than what I had lost.

Example:    BigM Sunday
                                    Straight $20= (-22.00)
                                    2 race Parlay= (-54.00)

                BigM Saturday 
                                    Straight $20= +193.00
                                    2 race parlay= +298.00

Given this doesn't matter till I do it at the track, I'm just keeping track right now in fantasy land.
 
Report to moderator   Logged
off stride
Guest

« Reply #58 on: March 14, 2006, 04:36:55 PM »

brian.. keeping track of the pools is a lot easier when you are using a site such as youbet  the total pools wps and exacta/dd/pic 3 are readily available to those who use that service...sign up with you bet is free for a 60 day trial including video feeds (but not chicago)
Report to moderator   Logged
edwardwilliam
Annnnnnnnnd they're off!
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 6252

Rebate shops are not the devil.


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #59 on: March 14, 2006, 04:40:09 PM »

Absolutely.

First off, do you know the best way to track the show pools before post? Some tracks show them right before post, but I noticed in the past, such as Balmoral, they would put them up for a few seconds, I used to have my ex-girlfriend tell me them while I wrote them all down, just in case there was an overlay.

As far as playing nothing less than 7 horse fields, I would rather ONLY play 9-10 horse fields, and sometimes 8. Playing the inside 3 on a half and them paying $5.00 is a good idea, I really don't play half-milers much anymore. 

If there's a non heavily bet favorite, then does it matter if they make the board? I thought a favorite would only kill the price if he's a $2.10 payout.

Yes, I will keep tracking this until I see that it doesn't work, EXCEPT, I'm going to keep track of also doing 2 race parlays on them, which is what I had also done this weekend. 3 race parlays was what I had thought of doing, but realized, if a few bigger ones come in, you'll just kill the price of the 3rd one.
The 2 race parlays would have netted me $309 profit minus payouts that might become lower, for $20 wagers.

Doing this method I found that on a bad day such as my BigM Sunday, I lost more than doing straight wagers, BUT I believe that on good days that my profit will be alot higher, that will be alot more profit than what I had lost.

Example:    BigM Sunday
                                    Straight $20= (-22.00)
                                    2 race Parlay= (-54.00)

                BigM Saturday 
                                    Straight $20= +193.00
                                    2 race parlay= +298.00

Given this doesn't matter till I do it at the track, I'm just keeping track right now in fantasy land.
 

I wager at home, now because I live in Nashville.  However, even when in Chicago, I stayed home many nights for not only quiet, but so I could track the pools on my computer.  Honestly, unless you are actually on-track and able to view the tote (and not even at Balmoral, with that ancient toteboard), I think you are SOL on the prices.

Show payouts depend on ALL THREE horses that make the board, and (essentially), all the losing bets are evenly divided amongst the winners...so basically, you want MORE losing bets (for example, a 1/9 favorite off the board is very nice Wink) so that there's more money to be divided up.  Therefore, if you feel that a favorite will miss the board, it's probably a fairly strong indication that you'll get a solid show price -- as long as you are right.

Personally, you're best served finding two-three races a night where the price is right, and working from there.  If you want to bet 10-12 show bets, than study 3-4 tracks per day, rather than forcing 10 bets into a 12 race card.

Just my opinion.

Best,
EW
Report to moderator   Logged

Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
Brian Collier
Full Member
***
Posts: 237




Ignore
« Reply #60 on: March 14, 2006, 05:00:07 PM »

Show payouts depend on ALL THREE horses that make the board, and (essentially), all the losing bets are evenly divided amongst the winners...so basically, you want MORE losing bets (for example, a 1/9 favorite off the board is very nice Wink) so that there's more money to be divided up.  Therefore, if you feel that a favorite will miss the board, it's probably a fairly strong indication that you'll get a solid show price -- as long as you are right.



Best,
EW

Ok, I thought that the way the done show payout was total pool minus their takeout, then divide by 3, then split up between winners.

Let me get this straight, they take the total pool minus takeout, subtract how much was wagered on the 3 that made the top 3, then divide by 3 and pay accordingly. I believe a show bettor is getting screwed, how's come they can't get their own wagered money back, or all pools like this?

Thanks OffStride, I don't have that service and was curious if they showed them constantly. YouBet is a legal service that is in the US? I just don't want anything to go overseas where they can just keep any money and there's nothing I could do about it. 
Report to moderator   Logged
off stride
Guest

« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2006, 05:05:32 PM »

yes very legal .. another one with ohio ties is  winticket.com , they carry all the tracks with video,  and other information
« Last Edit: March 14, 2006, 06:14:35 PM by off stride » Report to moderator   Logged
njhorseman
Guest

« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2006, 05:12:53 PM »

Ok, I thought that the way the done show payout was total pool minus their takeout, then divide by 3, then split up between winners.

Let me get this straight, they take the total pool minus takeout, subtract how much was wagered on the 3 that made the top 3, then divide by 3 and pay accordingly. I believe a show bettor is getting screwed, how's come they can't get their own wagered money back, or all pools like this?

Thanks OffStride, I don't have that service and was curious if they showed them constantly. YouBet is a legal service that is in the US? I just don't want anything to go overseas where they can just keep any money and there's nothing I could do about it. 

You're correct. I think you just misunderstood what EW meant, or perhaps he wasn't crystal-clear. Yes...they do get the money they wagered back. We discussed this a couple of days ago...except it gets moderately screwed up by "net pool pricing" or whatever they call it.
Report to moderator   Logged
fineline
Guest

« Reply #63 on: March 17, 2006, 11:06:16 PM »

If you do not bet horses for value you have no chance show betting is mental  Masturbation .There might be a small chance with rebates to break about even.,But i would like to book all show better they cant beat you for nothing to speak of. To bad races accident horses breaking down how do you over come that .
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.164 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Breeders' Cup
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy