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Dan Nance
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« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2006, 10:58:24 AM » |
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I watched this guy last night make his show bets at Balmoral and he hit 8 out of 10 races he bet. He didn't tell me what he was betting before the race but showed me the ticket after the race. All the bets were for $100 to show. I don't know how he decides who to bet on but he did hit 8 winners and made a decent buck.
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bowserkat
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« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2006, 11:03:39 AM » |
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OK- let some brave soul list 10 horses tonight that you would bet to show. If anyone can hit 8/10-I'll buy them a beer.
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LITTLETT
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« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2006, 11:10:22 AM » |
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He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.
I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.
SHOW BETTING IS NOT THE WAT TO MAKE MONEY YOUR BETTING TO LOSE |
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njhorseman
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« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2006, 02:57:21 PM » |
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Does anyone know the formula for the show payout? It seems to me they would divide the pool (after takeout) by 3. Then divide by how many $2 bets were played on each horse. Of course by my figurings, this wouldn't always work because the favorite could have less than a $2 payout. So then you give the most played horse a $2.10 payout then the other 2 split the remaining and divide by how many times they were played. Therefore a heavly played horse for show needs to stay off the board for the others to pay well. Am I right? I'm just taking an educated guess.
You're essentially correct, subject to some details on how a minus pool (the situation you allude to with a horse that would pay less than $2.10) and breakage...the odd amounts that are left when dividing the pool by the number of tickets, since payoffs are always in multiples of $.05 or $.10, are handled. |
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off stride
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« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2006, 03:19:06 PM » |
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You're essentially correct, subject to some details on how a minus pool (the situation you allude to with a horse that would pay less than $2.10) and breakage...the odd amounts that are left when dividing the pool by the number of tickets, since payoffs are always in multiples of $.05 or $.10, are handled.
however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop? |
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njhorseman
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« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2006, 03:23:31 PM » |
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however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop?
Sorry...I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "net pool pricing." Please explain it for old-timers like me. |
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off stride
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« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2006, 03:29:31 PM » |
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Sorry...I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "net pool pricing." Please explain it for old-timers like me.
its even to complicated for me..so here is a link for how ny does it ..other states do it also http://www.nyra.com/belmont/news.asp?id=1758&track=B |
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njhorseman
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« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2006, 03:38:32 PM » |
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OK...but they repeatedly refer to the mysterious algorithm but fail to give even a simplified expalanation of the formula, so it really doesn't answer my question. In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know? |
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swoodall
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« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2006, 03:47:10 PM » |
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Anyone who has been around a while knows sharp gamblers watch place and show pools to see if a solid contender is under bet in these pools just prior to post. If the track you are betting doesn't allowed these computer generated bets 30 seconds before post then you can catch a good bet in the place and show pools. The tracks that allow these computer services access at the last seconds before post will make up for any under bet horse in the pl&shw pool and screw your return.
The way I was shown(many years ago) to quickly figure if a horse was worth betting to show was as the horses headed towards the 3/4 pole to turn and go to the gate (round up on all numbers for speed), Subtract 20% from the total show pool (ex. 7455total -1500 for track take) =6000 (round number) subtract the total amount bet on the three shortest horses in the show pool from the 6000 (rounding up for speed) and then dived that amount by three. That left the amount your horse would receive in the show pool and if you could get 1to2($3 for the math impaired) return on that solid pick you liked then you make a show bet. It requires a little bit of faith that all the late money from off site sources follows the same percentages that had already been bet in the place and show pools. I don't how scientifically correct this is but unless a horse is severely under bet in these pools you usually don't get screwed on the late money too bad. Most late money is bet to win on horses that appear to be big overlays because we do have a pretty sharp group of big betters out there. My problem is when I jump on the bandwagon and bet a solid overlay(or so I thought) to win, my money is usually following the sucker money.
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off stride
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« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2006, 03:56:15 PM » |
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OK...but they repeatedly refer to the mysterious algorithm but fail to give even a simplified expalanation of the formula, so it really doesn't answer my question
In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know?
balmoral...red mile... dover..and several t-bred tracks.. do a google search on net pool pricing |
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Richard Breth
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« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2006, 03:56:31 PM » |
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In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know? Illinois tracks us it dont thay? May be even first in nation. Some in Ohio also? Any track co mingling with Canada. |
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swoodall
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« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2006, 04:00:28 PM » |
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Jim Curran told us back at Sportsmans in the late 70's that his wife(Farrington's daughter) would average a 5000 profit betting horses to show that her father told her to bet. She only bet to show and only bet when he told to. 5k profit for the Sportsmans Park meet tax free and considering the Farrington dominance, almost risk free.
I have my doubts that with today's smaller pools and form reversals a big gambler would take that risk with the large number of bets required to turn such a profit. I'm referring to Chicago racing with this comment, I know Meadowlands/Woodbine/T-breds have bigger show pools.
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jrstark
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« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2006, 04:49:56 PM » |
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I'm referring to Chicago racing with this comment, I know Meadowlands/Woodbine/T-breds have bigger show pools.
I tried show betting Thoroughbreds at Hawthorne one meet. Way too much money comes in the last click or two, too late to bet in person. Seemed like it always evened out the overlays I'd been watching. The win pools at both Hawthorne and Arlington generally double from what is showing from a minute to post. The show pools triple. |
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #38 on: March 07, 2006, 04:54:40 PM » |
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A buddy of mine went to the track with me one night a couple of years ago. We were playing Balmoral, he kept asking me for some horses that he should bet to show, so I kept giving him horses that looked good to me in the program, but were medium to longshots, he made a hell of a ROI % that night. Meanwhile I'm losing my ass trying to pick the winners.
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Justafan
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« Reply #39 on: March 07, 2006, 07:05:29 PM » |
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No one can ever win doing X. Why do so many axxfxxxs make statements like this. What may not work for you may work quite well for someone else.
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David
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« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2006, 09:38:33 PM » |
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The late money is extremely hard to figure, that is something you need to just forget about - if you avoid the races with the 1-5 or 1-9 which you know is going to get hammered to show - you need to just pass the race. If you can avoid betting on any horses that likely will pay 2.20 and try to limit those that will likely pay 2.40 you can hit the 2.80 figure I mentioned, what will happen you will end up playing the 2nd choice say and a couple long shots will run in and you will get 4.20 to show and that will drag up your average from the 2.40 or 2.60 bets that you collect. It isn't hard to hit that 2.80 number - like I said it is harder to hit that 75 percent number
If you are are playing into even a modest rebate like Pinnacle at 7 percent, which applies to show betting as well - other than 2.10 payoffs. Your breakeven percentage is 66.5 percent at 2.80, and I am willling to bet alot more of you can do that - if you fall short of the 75 percent.
Like I've stated thier are alot of drawbacks to show grinding - but to blanketly dismiss it isn't a prudent move - I will challenge people again - next time you are playing try playing horses to show for just 2 bucks and see how you do after 50 plays or something, if you are playing to win just keep track of what your picks are paying to show - I think many of you would be surprised.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2006, 09:48:36 PM » |
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Boy, I didn't think this topic would be this popular. Almost 1000 views and 3 pages of posts because I met this guy at the Suncoast who told me he makes a living betting 100 show tickets.
I'll tell you one thing, if I could do what the guy does I met the other day I would do it in a New York minute. Making 3 or 4 hundred a day isn't bad. Any show payout of $2.40 and up with $100 on the horse would be ok with me if I could pick 80% show winners like this guy does.
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2006, 09:58:28 PM » |
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If you could hit 70% and averaged a 2.85 payout you'd end up even. 80% at 2.50 payout would be even also.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2006, 10:12:56 PM » |
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If you could hit 70% and averaged a 2.85 payout you'd end up even. 80% at 2.50 payout would be even also.
How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts? |
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David
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« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2006, 10:16:55 PM » |
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There are some major drawbacks as I had mentioned previously, but there are a couple real cool things - you can pick your horses pretty quickly - you don't need to spend hours handicapping - you never bet long shots - you always end up with most likely the top 3 or 4 horses - there isn't any real need to even look at horses who are going off at longshot odds (with the exception of a quick pace profile), the actual race is much easier to watch - knowing you just need to get in the top 3 - alot less stress in that way.
Brian, it is a fine balance, the lower the average payoff the higher percentage you will hit - for obviousl reasons - you just need to find your comfort zone of what type of horses you can play at and hit one of the numbers you mention - to me the goal was always 2.80 and 75 percent - often I would fall short of the 75 percent but I always could get the 2.80 or even 2.90. I have long trails of play which I have operated on a profit with - my problem is I don't have the time - not many do - to spend 80 hours a week hanging out a racebook or on line to play the horses, I can make more money and have more fun in either straight work or different betting strategies.
Another plus - is you'll never really get your butt kicked at the windows - which I am sure we all have times when that happens. When you do go bad it is more of a slow leak - giving you time to adjust your game or take a break.
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David
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« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2006, 10:23:39 PM » |
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How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts?
You'd have to win 5 out of 6 of 2.40 horses to break even You'd have to win 10 out of 13 of 2.60 horses to break even You'd have to hit 5 out of 7 of 2.80 horses to break even You'd have to hit 2 out of 3 of 3.00 horses to break even You'd have to hit 1 out of 2 of 4.00 horses to break even That is usually what happens you get a mixture, some 2.40 some 2.80 some 4.20 or whatever - usually for me it averages out to 2.80 - 2.90 avg. payoff. |
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #46 on: March 07, 2006, 11:07:43 PM » |
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How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts?
That's why I said AVERAGED. Also note when wagering $100 on practically any harness race, you'd be very lucky to get a $4.00+ payout. |
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nomar
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« Reply #47 on: March 07, 2006, 11:40:45 PM » |
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its too tough a grind cant be done, i have seen guys try iy where i work eventually they go bust
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bigdaddy
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« Reply #48 on: March 08, 2006, 12:50:03 AM » |
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Who remembers a race I want to say 6 or so years ago? I'm thinking the horse was Champion on ice??? (maybe) was 1-9 and broke, the show payouts where nuts. Like 120......90.....and 85? Help me out.
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Harness fan
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« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2006, 04:57:17 AM » |
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The real point is that if you pick your spots, you can make money being a show better...not being a goof and betting every race!  |
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