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Author Topic: I MET A GUY WHO CLAIMS.........  (Read 6582 times)
Dan Nance
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« on: March 05, 2006, 08:08:40 PM »

He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.

    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.

     
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ageecee
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2006, 08:22:17 PM »

He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.

    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.

     




I think if you pick your spots it can be done but if you play every race theres no way you can come out ahead. I use to do the same thing this guy did but back then my money managemet was terrible so naturally i ended up losing money in the long run.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2006, 08:45:28 PM »



I think if you pick your spots it can be done but if you play every race theres no way you can come out ahead. I use to do the same thing this guy did but back then my money managemet was terrible so naturally i ended up losing money in the long run.

Right, but this guy tells me he bets every race and hits 8 to 10 a night. Seems kind of hard to do to me even if they are show bets.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2006, 09:07:21 PM »

It's not unlikely if it's over a period of time, but to bet every race and still win doesn't sound right. All he needs to do is lose 4 races in one night and he's down $400 bucks. If he wins 6 races at an average of $60 bucks profit per race he would still lose $40 for the night. anything is possible though. My late father-in-law never took home a paycheck in his life other than when he was in the Army during WW2. He only bet to win..only selected few races a day. He put 3 kids through Catholic school, bought new car every 3 years, owned 3 different homes(one at a time), and never claimed bankrupcy. So, it can be done if yer smart and lucky.
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2006, 09:19:34 PM »

   It seems to me that you could only do it at a mile track, with 10 horse races, that has high handles. Most pools I see for show are really low. A $100 would bring a show payout down dramatically I would say.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2006, 09:20:09 PM »

It's not unlikely if it's over a period of time, but to bet every race and still win doesn't sound right. All he needs to do is lose 4 races in one night and he's down $400 bucks. If he wins 6 races at an average of $60 bucks profit per race he would still lose $40 for the night. anything is possible though. My late father-in-law never took home a paycheck in his life other than when he was in the Army during WW2. He only bet to win..only selected few races a day. He put 3 kids through Catholic school, bought new car every 3 years, owned 3 different homes(one at a time), and never claimed bankrupcy. So, it can be done if yer smart and lucky.

But tell me this. How did your father-in-law keep all those winnings secret from the IRS? I'm surprised the IRS didn't crawl up his ass with a microscope since he owned 3 homes and bought new cars every 3 years.  
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nomar
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2006, 09:27:04 PM »

no way he can win betting that way
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2006, 09:30:17 PM »

But tell me this. How did your father-in-law keep all those winnings secret from the IRS? I'm surprised the IRS didn't crawl up his ass with a microscope since he owned 3 homes and bought new cars every 3 years.  

#1 He only bet to win. Large bets. It doesn't get reported by the track.
#2 He died over 26 years ago, not the same as things are these days.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2006, 09:35:18 PM »

#1 He only bet to win. Large bets. It doesn't get reported by the track.
#2 He died over 26 years ago, not the same as things are these days.


I understand but when you own 3 homes and buy new cars and never work the IRS would want to know where the money came from. Unless he was great at hiding it from them and he had no enemies to turn him in.

    The IRS operated the same 25 years ago as they do today with unreported income. More power to your late father-in-law if he f**ked the IRS. 
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2006, 09:38:20 PM »

I understand but when you own 3 homes and buy new cars and never work the IRS would want to know where the money came from. Unless he was great at hiding it from them and he had no enemies to turn him in.

    The IRS operated the same 25 years ago as they do today with unreported income. More power to your late father-in-law if he f**ked the IRS. 


P.S.
        I hope nobody in the family still owns any of those homes because if the IRS reads this forum they may come knocking. In the future don't post anything like you did about someone in the family never working but owning 3 homes and buying new cars.
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2006, 09:43:35 PM »

He never paid taxes. Talk about living precariously!
He only dealt with fellow Lithuanian businesses(banks, car dealers, etc.)from his old neighborhood around Union Street where they all knew and dealt with each other. To this day I don't know how he avoided the IRS. I don't know how he bought cars and homes without a job referance, but he did. God Bless Him.
He was known as Lucky Tom at all the thoroughbred tracks. He was a fantastic artist too. He used to draw on the table cloths in the old Gold Cup room at Hawthorne(before it burned down), and people would fight over it when he went home..LOL
No..I read your next post. They are all passed away now.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2006, 09:50:05 PM »

no way he can win betting that way

I think you're right. I was always told nobody wins betting horses in the longrun.
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« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2006, 09:55:32 PM »

You can get by doing show grinding, it isn't an easy road and you will never get rich. You can't bet into too small pools - most of the harness pools I see are too small - but maybe not some of the bigger tracks would work. What you are looking to do is bet 100 races a week at the 100 each you mention, win 75 percent of them at an average mutual of 2.80, this would yield you $ 500 profit a week or 25,000 cash a year. The 2.80 average mutual is the easier target - you just stay away from what you know will be 2.20 horses and you will hit that - the 75 percent is tougher than it sounds - but with practice it can be done - best races are betting 2nd choice when you don't like the chalk.

With most t-bred tracks, daytime anyways, you can comfortably double your amounts and not kill your return. The nice thing about this way of betting is that you aren't going to go too long with losing streaks and those who are familar with gambling theroy - specifically the kelly formula - due to the higher expecation of a winning outcome - the optimum bet  percentage of your bankroll will be much higher than it would normally be. For simplicity, if you are betting win pool you should probably have 25-50 times your base bet in your roll, if you are betting to show maybe 10-15 times your base wager, so you can comfortably bet larger units.

Where this strategy gets interesting is if you are betting into a rebate operation, either on line or to lesser extent on track with Hawthorne type cash back rewards, or in you guys case the comps at casinos - where they track your play for points or whatever. That is all gravy on top of your potatoes.
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njhorseman
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« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2006, 10:35:58 PM »

You can get by doing show grinding, it isn't an easy road and you will never get rich. You can't bet into too small pools - most of the harness pools I see are too small - but maybe not some of the bigger tracks would work. What you are looking to do is bet 100 races a week at the 100 each you mention, win 75 percent of them at an average mutual of 2.80, this would yield you $ 500 profit a week or 25,000 cash a year. The 2.80 average mutual is the easier target - you just stay away from what you know will be 2.20 horses and you will hit that - the 75 percent is tougher than it sounds - but with practice it can be done - best races are betting 2nd choice when you don't like the chalk.



No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.

Betting the 2nd choice in a race where you don't like the favorite doesn't do you much good either, because the favorite doesn't have to win to affect the show pool, it just has to hit the board, and the percentage of favorites that hit the board is very high.
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« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2006, 10:55:04 PM »

njhorseman, couldnt have said it better.... nobody wins over an extended period of time betting to show... its complete nonsense.
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ageecee
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2006, 10:55:29 PM »

No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.

Betting the 2nd choice in a race where you don't like the favorite doesn't do you much good either, because the favorite doesn't have to win to affect the show pool, it just has to hit the board, and the percentage of favorites that hit the board is very high.



There you again telling everyone you know it all. Do you try and be a smartass or does it come natural? I bet its natural anyone agree with me?
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2006, 12:02:56 AM »

NJ, I'm well aware of how show payoffs are calculated, I said you need to average 2.80 payoff, I didn't say you needed to ensure a 2.80 payoff on each race. The favorite will run in the money about 70 percent of the time at most tracks. As I have stated the 2.80 is the easier number to hit, all you have to do is avoid playing 3-5 horses or playing into races where there is a 1-5 which you think will hit the board (which is most of them)- tonight in harness for example at BAL there were 23 payoffs 2.80 or above to 7 below, and at Meadowlands there were 26 payoffs at 2.80 or above compared to 7 below - so I'll restate the 2.80 is a reasonable and easy level to hit.

Why don't you just mess around - sounds like most of you play alot - make 2.00 or even fake show bets - see how you do, I think you will find that most of you who play alot are pretty close to hitting the 2.80 and 75 percent numbers. I'm willing to bet most of you can get closer there than you can in the win or exacta pools.

As far as doing a show grind for a living, it is alot of work for not alot of reward without a rebate incentive that is. I think most could make more money at a straight job than grinding it out 80 hours a week picking show horses.
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2006, 12:03:54 AM »

No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.



     All he was saying was that $2.80 was a target price. You can tell by watching the pool amounts if a horse will pay $2.20 or if it will pay $300+.
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« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2006, 12:25:13 AM »

I think you're right. I was always told nobody wins betting horses in the longrun.

False.

Also, I never want to say it's impossible...but it would be VERY difficult to make a living betting show.  IMO, you would need to scout several to many tracks a day in order to find enough correctly valued bets to make it worthwhile.  Just my opinion.

Best,
EW
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RK
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2006, 06:35:46 AM »


    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.
     


That would be as much as some of the drivers make a night !!

RK
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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2006, 04:39:16 PM »

maroon  Don't see how it can be done for any extended period.  Betting every race makes it even harder to do.  The track take out, which can be overcome in the win and exotic pools.is a much harder barrier to jump in the show pool. Now, as some have said, by picking your spots you might be able to grind out a small profit. I'll stick to playing the stock market for dough and the horses for fun.
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David
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2006, 05:33:44 PM »

Why would the show pool be harder to overcome the takeout than the win pool? they both have the same takeout and you have more square money in the show pool.

The takeout on the exacta pool is much higher than the wps pools so that is a bigger number to overcome.

Try for fun, I think you will find that just about everyone who is serious enough to read and post on horse boards is capable of coming close to the 75 and 2.80 numbers - with practice and patience it can be done - it is just too boring for most to go after - not to mention how frustrating it is to pick a bunch of horses who win thier races easily but you only bet them to show and are getting 2.80 or 3.20 or whatever back.
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2006, 10:40:14 PM »

Any takeout can be overcome.  The show pool is harder for several reasons. You can, of course, caculate the payouts, which you have to do yourself since the show payout isn't given like win and exacta payouts.
Since the show pool is smaller plunking down a 50-100 dollar bet will affect the payout more than doing a win or exacta bet.  Due to the smaller payouts, the breakage factor also has a greater effect on the return.
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davenchop
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2006, 10:51:48 PM »

how are you going to calculate the show payoffs if you dont know who the top 3 finishers are, not too mention all the off track money that isnt posted until the race starts???
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2006, 04:26:30 AM »

      Does anyone know the formula for the show payout? It seems to me they would divide the pool (after takeout) by 3. Then divide by how many $2 bets were played on each horse. Of course by my figurings, this wouldn't always work because the favorite could have less than a $2 payout. So then you give the most played horse a $2.10 payout then the other 2 split the remaining and divide by how many times they were played. Therefore a heavly played horse for show needs to stay off the board for the others to pay well. Am I right? I'm just taking an educated guess.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2006, 09:58:24 AM »

I watched this guy last night make his show bets at Balmoral and he hit 8 out of 10 races he bet. He didn't tell me what he was betting before the race but showed me the ticket after the race. All the bets were for $100 to show. I don't know how he decides who to bet on but he did hit 8 winners and made a decent buck. 
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« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2006, 10:03:39 AM »

OK- let some brave soul list 10 horses tonight that you would bet to show.  If anyone can hit 8/10-I'll buy them a beer.
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« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2006, 10:10:22 AM »

He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.

    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.

     

SHOW BETTING IS NOT THE WAT TO MAKE MONEY YOUR BETTING TO LOSE
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njhorseman
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« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2006, 01:57:21 PM »

      Does anyone know the formula for the show payout? It seems to me they would divide the pool (after takeout) by 3. Then divide by how many $2 bets were played on each horse. Of course by my figurings, this wouldn't always work because the favorite could have less than a $2 payout. So then you give the most played horse a $2.10 payout then the other 2 split the remaining and divide by how many times they were played. Therefore a heavly played horse for show needs to stay off the board for the others to pay well. Am I right? I'm just taking an educated guess.

You're essentially correct, subject to some details on how a minus pool (the situation you allude to with a horse that would pay less than $2.10) and breakage...the odd amounts that are left when dividing the pool by the number of tickets, since payoffs are always in multiples of $.05 or $.10, are handled.
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off stride
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« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2006, 02:19:06 PM »

You're essentially correct, subject to some details on how a minus pool (the situation you allude to with a horse that would pay less than $2.10) and breakage...the odd amounts that are left when dividing the pool by the number of tickets, since payoffs are always in multiples of $.05 or $.10, are handled.
however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop?
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njhorseman
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« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2006, 02:23:31 PM »

however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop?

Sorry...I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "net pool pricing." Please explain it for old-timers like me.
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off stride
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« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2006, 02:29:31 PM »

Sorry...I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "net pool pricing." Please explain it for old-timers like me.

its even to complicated for me..so here is a link for how ny does it ..other states do it also

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/news.asp?id=1758&track=B
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njhorseman
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« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2006, 02:38:32 PM »

its even to complicated for me..so here is a link for how ny does it ..other states do it also

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/news.asp?id=1758&track=B

OK...but they repeatedly refer to the mysterious algorithm but fail to give even a simplified expalanation of the formula, so it really doesn't answer my question.



In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know?
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swoodall
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« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2006, 02:47:10 PM »

Anyone who has been around a while knows sharp gamblers watch place and show pools to see if a solid contender is under bet in these pools just prior to post.  If the track you are betting doesn't allowed these computer generated bets 30 seconds before post then you can catch a good bet in the place and show pools.  The tracks that allow these computer services access at the last seconds before post will make up for any under bet horse in the pl&shw pool and screw your return.

The way I was shown(many years ago) to quickly figure if a horse was worth betting to show was as the horses headed towards the 3/4 pole to turn and go to the gate  (round up on all numbers for speed),  Subtract 20% from the total show pool (ex.  7455total -1500 for track take)  =6000 (round number)  subtract the total amount bet on the three shortest horses in the show pool from the 6000 (rounding up for speed) and then dived that amount by three.  That left the amount your horse would receive in the show pool and if you could get 1to2($3 for the math impaired)  return on that solid pick you liked then you make a show bet.  It requires a little bit of faith that all the late money from off site sources follows the same percentages that had already been bet in the place and show pools.  I don't how scientifically correct this is but unless a horse is severely under bet in these pools you usually don't get screwed on the late money too bad.  Most late money is bet to win on horses that appear to be big overlays because we do have a pretty sharp group of big betters out there.  My problem is when I jump on the bandwagon and bet a solid overlay(or so I thought) to win,   my money is usually following the sucker money.
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off stride
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« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2006, 02:56:15 PM »

OK...but they repeatedly refer to the mysterious algorithm but fail to give even a simplified expalanation of the formula, so it really doesn't answer my question

In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know?

balmoral...red mile... dover..and several t-bred tracks.. do a google search on net pool pricing
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Richard Breth
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« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2006, 02:56:31 PM »

In any event, what US tracks other than NYRA are using it? Anyone know?

Illinois tracks us it dont thay? May be even first in nation. Some in Ohio also? Any track co mingling with Canada.
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swoodall
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« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2006, 03:00:28 PM »

Jim Curran told us back at Sportsmans in the late 70's that his wife(Farrington's daughter) would average a 5000 profit betting horses to show that her father told her to bet.  She only bet to show and only bet when he told to.  5k profit for the Sportsmans Park meet tax free and considering the Farrington dominance,  almost risk free.  

I have my doubts that with today's smaller pools and form reversals a big gambler would take that risk with the large number of bets required to turn such a profit.  I'm referring to Chicago racing with this comment,  I know Meadowlands/Woodbine/T-breds have bigger show pools.
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« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2006, 03:49:56 PM »

I'm referring to Chicago racing with this comment,  I know Meadowlands/Woodbine/T-breds have bigger show pools.

I tried show betting Thoroughbreds at Hawthorne one meet.  Way too much money comes in the last click or two, too late to bet in person.  Seemed like it always evened out the overlays I'd been watching.

The win pools at both Hawthorne and Arlington generally double from what is showing from a minute to post.  The show pools triple.
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« Reply #38 on: March 07, 2006, 03:54:40 PM »

   A buddy of mine went to the track with me one night a couple of years ago. We were playing Balmoral, he kept asking me for some horses that he should bet to show, so I kept giving him horses that looked good to me in the program, but were medium to longshots, he made a hell of a ROI % that night. Meanwhile I'm losing my ass trying to pick the winners.
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Justafan
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« Reply #39 on: March 07, 2006, 06:05:29 PM »

No one can ever win doing X.  Why do so many axxfxxxs make statements like this.  What may not work for you may work quite well for someone else. 
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« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2006, 08:38:33 PM »

The late money is extremely hard to figure, that is something you need to just forget about - if you avoid the races with the 1-5 or 1-9 which you know is going to get hammered to show - you need to just pass the race. If you can avoid betting on any horses that likely will pay 2.20 and try to limit those that will likely pay 2.40 you can hit the 2.80 figure I mentioned, what will happen you will end up playing the 2nd choice say and a couple long shots will run in and you will get 4.20 to show and that will drag up your average from the 2.40 or 2.60 bets that you collect. It isn't hard to hit that 2.80 number - like I said it is harder to hit that 75 percent number

If you are are playing into even a modest rebate like Pinnacle at 7 percent, which applies to show betting as well - other than 2.10 payoffs. Your breakeven percentage is 66.5 percent at 2.80, and I am willling to bet alot more of you can do that - if you fall short of the 75 percent.

Like I've stated thier are alot of drawbacks to show grinding - but to blanketly dismiss it isn't a prudent move - I will challenge people again - next time you are playing try playing horses to show for just 2 bucks and see how you do after 50 plays or something, if you are playing to win just keep track of what your picks are paying to show - I think many of you would be surprised.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2006, 08:48:36 PM »

Boy, I didn't think this topic would be this popular. Almost 1000 views and 3 pages of posts because I met this guy at the Suncoast who told me he makes a living betting 100 show tickets.

    I'll tell you one thing, if I could do what the guy does I met the other day I would do it in a New York minute. Making 3 or 4 hundred a day isn't bad. Any show payout of $2.40 and up with $100 on the horse would be ok with me if I could pick 80% show winners like this guy does.   
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« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2006, 08:58:28 PM »

   If you could hit 70% and averaged a 2.85 payout you'd end up even. 80% at 2.50 payout would be even also.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2006, 09:12:56 PM »

   If you could hit 70% and averaged a 2.85 payout you'd end up even. 80% at 2.50 payout would be even also.

How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts?
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« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2006, 09:16:55 PM »

There are some major drawbacks as I had mentioned previously, but there are a couple real cool things - you can pick your horses pretty quickly - you don't need to spend hours handicapping - you never bet long shots - you always end up with most likely the top 3 or 4 horses - there isn't any real need to even look at horses who are going off at longshot odds (with the exception of a quick pace profile), the actual race is much easier to watch - knowing you just need to get in the top 3 - alot less stress in that way.

Brian, it is a fine balance, the lower the average payoff the higher percentage you will hit - for obviousl reasons - you just need to find your comfort zone of what type of horses you can play at and hit one of the numbers you mention - to me the goal was always 2.80 and 75 percent - often I would fall short of the 75 percent but I always could get the 2.80 or even 2.90. I have long trails of play which I have operated on a profit with - my problem is I don't have the time - not many do - to spend 80 hours a week hanging out a racebook or on line to play the horses, I can make more money and have more fun in either straight work or different betting strategies.

Another plus - is you'll never really get your butt kicked at the windows - which I am sure we all have times when that happens. When you do go bad it is more of a slow leak - giving you time to adjust your game or take a break.
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« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2006, 09:23:39 PM »

How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts?

You'd have to win 5 out of 6 of 2.40 horses to break even
You'd have to win 10 out of 13 of 2.60 horses to break even
You'd have to hit 5 out of 7 of 2.80 horses to break even
You'd have to hit 2 out of 3 of 3.00 horses to break even
You'd have to hit 1 out of 2 of 4.00 horses to break even

That is usually what happens you get a mixture, some 2.40 some 2.80 some 4.20 or whatever - usually for me it averages out to 2.80 - 2.90 avg. payoff.
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« Reply #46 on: March 07, 2006, 10:07:43 PM »

How about if you hit some 2.40....2.60....2.80.....3.00.....and some 4.00 and above payouts?

   That's why I said AVERAGED. Also note when wagering $100 on practically any harness race, you'd be very lucky to get a $4.00+ payout.
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« Reply #47 on: March 07, 2006, 10:40:45 PM »

its too tough a grind cant be done, i have seen guys try iy where i work eventually they go bust
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« Reply #48 on: March 07, 2006, 11:50:03 PM »

Who remembers a race I want to say 6 or so years ago? I'm thinking the horse was Champion on ice??? (maybe)  was 1-9 and broke, the show payouts where nuts. Like 120......90.....and 85? Help me out.
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« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2006, 03:57:17 AM »

The real point is that if you pick your spots, you can make money being a show better...not being a goof and betting every race! dude
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« Reply #50 on: March 08, 2006, 11:19:45 AM »

however doesnt this new..'net pool pricing' throw all this for a loop?

It's exactly the same formula, except the LOCAL takeout is used, and it's applied differently.

The key: if you are betting a non-favorite, the place or show price will nearly always be the same or higher -- so you can use the old formula, and you will either (99 times of a 100) get the conventional price or better.

Best,
EW
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« Reply #51 on: March 08, 2006, 07:59:33 PM »

Who remembers a race I want to say 6 or so years ago? I'm thinking the horse was Champion on ice??? (maybe)  was 1-9 and broke, the show payouts where nuts. Like 120......90.....and 85? Help me out.

I remember a horse by the name of "First Crush" @ Maywood about that time, someone threw 100K
to show on him he broke at the start and came back to win by a nose.
If I recall it was the first time on the half miler too! (crazy or stupid, your call)

RK
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« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2006, 09:27:01 PM »

I tracked my top pick for The BigM Fri, Sat, Sun, and Dover Monday.


Friday BigM- 9 for 12 show....Average show pay=2.75
Satay BigM- 11 for 13 show...Average show pay=4.10
Sun   BigM-  6 for 11 show....Average show pay=3.50
Mon Dover- 9 for 15  show....Average show pay=3.40

Total- 35 for 51= 68.6%   Average show pay=$3.47

$2 wagers= $102 wagered with a 121.50 return

Anyone else keep track of their picks?
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« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2006, 04:09:01 AM »

wow, B.C. I would have guessed that the money would have come out better...That is alot of work to get back like 16.25...Looks like back to the drawing board. But if you pick certain races rather than a majority of them Istill think you can grind it out but it does look more difficult than I even thought.
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« Reply #54 on: March 14, 2006, 04:54:08 AM »

wow, B.C. I would have guessed that the money would have come out better...That is alot of work to get back like 16.25...Looks like back to the drawing board. But if you pick certain races rather than a majority of them Istill think you can grind it out but it does look more difficult than I even thought.

There is alot more profit to be made that I haven't finished putting all the figures together yet Harness Fan. I'll put them together in a few minutes and give you the figures, I'll PM them to you. I did have a horrible day Sunday, primarily because I suck at picking NW2-4 and trotters. Also remember if them were $20 wagers, that's a profit of $194, if the extra $20 hit doesn't bump down the show payoff.

Friday was a low average payoff because there were some 2.10 and 2.20 payouts that you just couldn't avoid because of fox valley horses. Saturday Hop Sing was a 2.10 payout, but I had some huge hits up to 7.80. Dover is a track I don't primarily pay much attention to, so I didn't know much about the horses, but I did notice they had some longer shots coming in alot yesterday.
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« Reply #55 on: March 14, 2006, 01:08:39 PM »

There is alot more profit to be made that I haven't finished putting all the figures together yet Harness Fan. I'll put them together in a few minutes and give you the figures, I'll PM them to you. I did have a horrible day Sunday, primarily because I suck at picking NW2-4 and trotters. Also remember if them were $20 wagers, that's a profit of $194, if the extra $20 hit doesn't bump down the show payoff.

Friday was a low average payoff because there were some 2.10 and 2.20 payouts that you just couldn't avoid because of fox valley horses. Saturday Hop Sing was a 2.10 payout, but I had some huge hits up to 7.80. Dover is a track I don't primarily pay much attention to, so I didn't know much about the horses, but I did notice they had some longer shots coming in alot yesterday.

Your ROI would be much better if you followed a couple guidelines:

-don't bet the race unless your MINIMUM show payout is $4...unless you believe a favorite will be off the board, then accept a MIN of $3
-pay special attention to the "inside 3" on any half, and give strong consideration to playing ANY of these that are paying a minimum of above $5
-do not bet 6 horse (or less) fields

Just my opinion.  Eventually, your current method will turn out to be a futile one.  How do I know this?  Think about it -- ONE bad night (2 or 3 for the card) will wipe out about two or three WEEKS of above average nights.

Although, it may be a learning experience to track it, just so you can see this occur for yourself.

Best,
EW
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fineline
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« Reply #56 on: March 14, 2006, 01:34:37 PM »

I Will Like you to send that guy to me If he is intrested.I will give him 10% back on his losses and give you a piece. Fineline ps he must post I will Also post up to $10,000
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« Reply #57 on: March 14, 2006, 04:32:42 PM »

Your ROI would be much better if you followed a couple guidelines:

-don't bet the race unless your MINIMUM show payout is $4...unless you believe a favorite will be off the board, then accept a MIN of $3
-pay special attention to the "inside 3" on any half, and give strong consideration to playing ANY of these that are paying a minimum of above $5
-do not bet 6 horse (or less) fields

Just my opinion.  Eventually, your current method will turn out to be a futile one.  How do I know this?  Think about it -- ONE bad night (2 or 3 for the card) will wipe out about two or three WEEKS of above average nights.

Although, it may be a learning experience to track it, just so you can see this occur for yourself.

Best,
EW

Absolutely.

First off, do you know the best way to track the show pools before post? Some tracks show them right before post, but I noticed in the past, such as Balmoral, they would put them up for a few seconds, I used to have my ex-girlfriend tell me them while I wrote them all down, just in case there was an overlay.

As far as playing nothing less than 7 horse fields, I would rather ONLY play 9-10 horse fields, and sometimes 8. Playing the inside 3 on a half and them paying $5.00 is a good idea, I really don't play half-milers much anymore. 

If there's a non heavily bet favorite, then does it matter if they make the board? I thought a favorite would only kill the price if he's a $2.10 payout.

Yes, I will keep tracking this until I see that it doesn't work, EXCEPT, I'm going to keep track of also doing 2 race parlays on them, which is what I had also done this weekend. 3 race parlays was what I had thought of doing, but realized, if a few bigger ones come in, you'll just kill the price of the 3rd one.
The 2 race parlays would have netted me $309 profit minus payouts that might become lower, for $20 wagers.

Doing this method I found that on a bad day such as my BigM Sunday, I lost more than doing straight wagers, BUT I believe that on good days that my profit will be alot higher, that will be alot more profit than what I had lost.

Example:    BigM Sunday
                                    Straight $20= (-22.00)
                                    2 race Parlay= (-54.00)

                BigM Saturday 
                                    Straight $20= +193.00
                                    2 race parlay= +298.00

Given this doesn't matter till I do it at the track, I'm just keeping track right now in fantasy land.
 
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« Reply #58 on: March 14, 2006, 04:36:55 PM »

brian.. keeping track of the pools is a lot easier when you are using a site such as youbet  the total pools wps and exacta/dd/pic 3 are readily available to those who use that service...sign up with you bet is free for a 60 day trial including video feeds (but not chicago)
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« Reply #59 on: March 14, 2006, 04:40:09 PM »

Absolutely.

First off, do you know the best way to track the show pools before post? Some tracks show them right before post, but I noticed in the past, such as Balmoral, they would put them up for a few seconds, I used to have my ex-girlfriend tell me them while I wrote them all down, just in case there was an overlay.

As far as playing nothing less than 7 horse fields, I would rather ONLY play 9-10 horse fields, and sometimes 8. Playing the inside 3 on a half and them paying $5.00 is a good idea, I really don't play half-milers much anymore. 

If there's a non heavily bet favorite, then does it matter if they make the board? I thought a favorite would only kill the price if he's a $2.10 payout.

Yes, I will keep tracking this until I see that it doesn't work, EXCEPT, I'm going to keep track of also doing 2 race parlays on them, which is what I had also done this weekend. 3 race parlays was what I had thought of doing, but realized, if a few bigger ones come in, you'll just kill the price of the 3rd one.
The 2 race parlays would have netted me $309 profit minus payouts that might become lower, for $20 wagers.

Doing this method I found that on a bad day such as my BigM Sunday, I lost more than doing straight wagers, BUT I believe that on good days that my profit will be alot higher, that will be alot more profit than what I had lost.

Example:    BigM Sunday
                                    Straight $20= (-22.00)
                                    2 race Parlay= (-54.00)

                BigM Saturday 
                                    Straight $20= +193.00
                                    2 race parlay= +298.00

Given this doesn't matter till I do it at the track, I'm just keeping track right now in fantasy land.
 

I wager at home, now because I live in Nashville.  However, even when in Chicago, I stayed home many nights for not only quiet, but so I could track the pools on my computer.  Honestly, unless you are actually on-track and able to view the tote (and not even at Balmoral, with that ancient toteboard), I think you are SOL on the prices.

Show payouts depend on ALL THREE horses that make the board, and (essentially), all the losing bets are evenly divided amongst the winners...so basically, you want MORE losing bets (for example, a 1/9 favorite off the board is very nice Wink) so that there's more money to be divided up.  Therefore, if you feel that a favorite will miss the board, it's probably a fairly strong indication that you'll get a solid show price -- as long as you are right.

Personally, you're best served finding two-three races a night where the price is right, and working from there.  If you want to bet 10-12 show bets, than study 3-4 tracks per day, rather than forcing 10 bets into a 12 race card.

Just my opinion.

Best,
EW
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« Reply #60 on: March 14, 2006, 05:00:07 PM »

Show payouts depend on ALL THREE horses that make the board, and (essentially), all the losing bets are evenly divided amongst the winners...so basically, you want MORE losing bets (for example, a 1/9 favorite off the board is very nice Wink) so that there's more money to be divided up.  Therefore, if you feel that a favorite will miss the board, it's probably a fairly strong indication that you'll get a solid show price -- as long as you are right.



Best,
EW

Ok, I thought that the way the done show payout was total pool minus their takeout, then divide by 3, then split up between winners.

Let me get this straight, they take the total pool minus takeout, subtract how much was wagered on the 3 that made the top 3, then divide by 3 and pay accordingly. I believe a show bettor is getting screwed, how's come they can't get their own wagered money back, or all pools like this?

Thanks OffStride, I don't have that service and was curious if they showed them constantly. YouBet is a legal service that is in the US? I just don't want anything to go overseas where they can just keep any money and there's nothing I could do about it. 
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« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2006, 05:05:32 PM »

yes very legal .. another one with ohio ties is  winticket.com , they carry all the tracks with video,  and other information
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njhorseman
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« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2006, 05:12:53 PM »

Ok, I thought that the way the done show payout was total pool minus their takeout, then divide by 3, then split up between winners.

Let me get this straight, they take the total pool minus takeout, subtract how much was wagered on the 3 that made the top 3, then divide by 3 and pay accordingly. I believe a show bettor is getting screwed, how's come they can't get their own wagered money back, or all pools like this?

Thanks OffStride, I don't have that service and was curious if they showed them constantly. YouBet is a legal service that is in the US? I just don't want anything to go overseas where they can just keep any money and there's nothing I could do about it. 

You're correct. I think you just misunderstood what EW meant, or perhaps he wasn't crystal-clear. Yes...they do get the money they wagered back. We discussed this a couple of days ago...except it gets moderately screwed up by "net pool pricing" or whatever they call it.
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fineline
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« Reply #63 on: March 17, 2006, 11:06:16 PM »

If you do not bet horses for value you have no chance show betting is mental  Masturbation .There might be a small chance with rebates to break about even.,But i would like to book all show better they cant beat you for nothing to speak of. To bad races accident horses breaking down how do you over come that .
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