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Author Topic: I MET A GUY WHO CLAIMS.........  (Read 6477 times)
Dan Nance
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« on: March 05, 2006, 09:08:40 PM »

He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.

    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.

     
« Last Edit: March 05, 2006, 09:12:06 PM by Dan Nance » Report to moderator   Logged
ageecee
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2006, 09:22:17 PM »

He makes a living betting $100 show bets. He told me he's not greedy and will take the $20,$30,$40,$50 and sometimes more profit he gets 8 to 10 times a night. He claims he hits show winners at that percent.

    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.

     




I think if you pick your spots it can be done but if you play every race theres no way you can come out ahead. I use to do the same thing this guy did but back then my money managemet was terrible so naturally i ended up losing money in the long run.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2006, 09:45:28 PM »



I think if you pick your spots it can be done but if you play every race theres no way you can come out ahead. I use to do the same thing this guy did but back then my money managemet was terrible so naturally i ended up losing money in the long run.

Right, but this guy tells me he bets every race and hits 8 to 10 a night. Seems kind of hard to do to me even if they are show bets.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2006, 10:07:21 PM »

It's not unlikely if it's over a period of time, but to bet every race and still win doesn't sound right. All he needs to do is lose 4 races in one night and he's down $400 bucks. If he wins 6 races at an average of $60 bucks profit per race he would still lose $40 for the night. anything is possible though. My late father-in-law never took home a paycheck in his life other than when he was in the Army during WW2. He only bet to win..only selected few races a day. He put 3 kids through Catholic school, bought new car every 3 years, owned 3 different homes(one at a time), and never claimed bankrupcy. So, it can be done if yer smart and lucky.
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2006, 10:19:34 PM »

   It seems to me that you could only do it at a mile track, with 10 horse races, that has high handles. Most pools I see for show are really low. A $100 would bring a show payout down dramatically I would say.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2006, 10:20:09 PM »

It's not unlikely if it's over a period of time, but to bet every race and still win doesn't sound right. All he needs to do is lose 4 races in one night and he's down $400 bucks. If he wins 6 races at an average of $60 bucks profit per race he would still lose $40 for the night. anything is possible though. My late father-in-law never took home a paycheck in his life other than when he was in the Army during WW2. He only bet to win..only selected few races a day. He put 3 kids through Catholic school, bought new car every 3 years, owned 3 different homes(one at a time), and never claimed bankrupcy. So, it can be done if yer smart and lucky.

But tell me this. How did your father-in-law keep all those winnings secret from the IRS? I'm surprised the IRS didn't crawl up his ass with a microscope since he owned 3 homes and bought new cars every 3 years.  
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nomar
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2006, 10:27:04 PM »

no way he can win betting that way
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2006, 10:30:17 PM »

But tell me this. How did your father-in-law keep all those winnings secret from the IRS? I'm surprised the IRS didn't crawl up his ass with a microscope since he owned 3 homes and bought new cars every 3 years.  

#1 He only bet to win. Large bets. It doesn't get reported by the track.
#2 He died over 26 years ago, not the same as things are these days.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2006, 10:35:18 PM »

#1 He only bet to win. Large bets. It doesn't get reported by the track.
#2 He died over 26 years ago, not the same as things are these days.


I understand but when you own 3 homes and buy new cars and never work the IRS would want to know where the money came from. Unless he was great at hiding it from them and he had no enemies to turn him in.

    The IRS operated the same 25 years ago as they do today with unreported income. More power to your late father-in-law if he f**ked the IRS. 
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2006, 10:38:20 PM »

I understand but when you own 3 homes and buy new cars and never work the IRS would want to know where the money came from. Unless he was great at hiding it from them and he had no enemies to turn him in.

    The IRS operated the same 25 years ago as they do today with unreported income. More power to your late father-in-law if he f**ked the IRS. 


P.S.
        I hope nobody in the family still owns any of those homes because if the IRS reads this forum they may come knocking. In the future don't post anything like you did about someone in the family never working but owning 3 homes and buying new cars.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2006, 10:43:35 PM »

He never paid taxes. Talk about living precariously!
He only dealt with fellow Lithuanian businesses(banks, car dealers, etc.)from his old neighborhood around Union Street where they all knew and dealt with each other. To this day I don't know how he avoided the IRS. I don't know how he bought cars and homes without a job referance, but he did. God Bless Him.
He was known as Lucky Tom at all the thoroughbred tracks. He was a fantastic artist too. He used to draw on the table cloths in the old Gold Cup room at Hawthorne(before it burned down), and people would fight over it when he went home..LOL
No..I read your next post. They are all passed away now.
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Dan Nance
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2006, 10:50:05 PM »

no way he can win betting that way

I think you're right. I was always told nobody wins betting horses in the longrun.
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David
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« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2006, 10:55:32 PM »

You can get by doing show grinding, it isn't an easy road and you will never get rich. You can't bet into too small pools - most of the harness pools I see are too small - but maybe not some of the bigger tracks would work. What you are looking to do is bet 100 races a week at the 100 each you mention, win 75 percent of them at an average mutual of 2.80, this would yield you $ 500 profit a week or 25,000 cash a year. The 2.80 average mutual is the easier target - you just stay away from what you know will be 2.20 horses and you will hit that - the 75 percent is tougher than it sounds - but with practice it can be done - best races are betting 2nd choice when you don't like the chalk.

With most t-bred tracks, daytime anyways, you can comfortably double your amounts and not kill your return. The nice thing about this way of betting is that you aren't going to go too long with losing streaks and those who are familar with gambling theroy - specifically the kelly formula - due to the higher expecation of a winning outcome - the optimum bet  percentage of your bankroll will be much higher than it would normally be. For simplicity, if you are betting win pool you should probably have 25-50 times your base bet in your roll, if you are betting to show maybe 10-15 times your base wager, so you can comfortably bet larger units.

Where this strategy gets interesting is if you are betting into a rebate operation, either on line or to lesser extent on track with Hawthorne type cash back rewards, or in you guys case the comps at casinos - where they track your play for points or whatever. That is all gravy on top of your potatoes.
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njhorseman
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« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2006, 11:35:58 PM »

You can get by doing show grinding, it isn't an easy road and you will never get rich. You can't bet into too small pools - most of the harness pools I see are too small - but maybe not some of the bigger tracks would work. What you are looking to do is bet 100 races a week at the 100 each you mention, win 75 percent of them at an average mutual of 2.80, this would yield you $ 500 profit a week or 25,000 cash a year. The 2.80 average mutual is the easier target - you just stay away from what you know will be 2.20 horses and you will hit that - the 75 percent is tougher than it sounds - but with practice it can be done - best races are betting 2nd choice when you don't like the chalk.



No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.

Betting the 2nd choice in a race where you don't like the favorite doesn't do you much good either, because the favorite doesn't have to win to affect the show pool, it just has to hit the board, and the percentage of favorites that hit the board is very high.
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« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2006, 11:55:04 PM »

njhorseman, couldnt have said it better.... nobody wins over an extended period of time betting to show... its complete nonsense.
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ageecee
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2006, 11:55:29 PM »

No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.

Betting the 2nd choice in a race where you don't like the favorite doesn't do you much good either, because the favorite doesn't have to win to affect the show pool, it just has to hit the board, and the percentage of favorites that hit the board is very high.



There you again telling everyone you know it all. Do you try and be a smartass or does it come natural? I bet its natural anyone agree with me?
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David
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2006, 01:02:56 AM »

NJ, I'm well aware of how show payoffs are calculated, I said you need to average 2.80 payoff, I didn't say you needed to ensure a 2.80 payoff on each race. The favorite will run in the money about 70 percent of the time at most tracks. As I have stated the 2.80 is the easier number to hit, all you have to do is avoid playing 3-5 horses or playing into races where there is a 1-5 which you think will hit the board (which is most of them)- tonight in harness for example at BAL there were 23 payoffs 2.80 or above to 7 below, and at Meadowlands there were 26 payoffs at 2.80 or above compared to 7 below - so I'll restate the 2.80 is a reasonable and easy level to hit.

Why don't you just mess around - sounds like most of you play alot - make 2.00 or even fake show bets - see how you do, I think you will find that most of you who play alot are pretty close to hitting the 2.80 and 75 percent numbers. I'm willing to bet most of you can get closer there than you can in the win or exacta pools.

As far as doing a show grind for a living, it is alot of work for not alot of reward without a rebate incentive that is. I think most could make more money at a straight job than grinding it out 80 hours a week picking show horses.
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2006, 01:03:54 AM »

No disrespect, but this sounds like a crock to me. The show prices are dependent on the amount bet on all three horses that hit the board, not just the horse you bet. As a result, there are a whole range of possible show prices for any one horse, and since no track that i know of since Roosevelt Raceway closed displays the show probable range, how are you going to ensure that you will average a $2.80 mutuel...particularly these days when much of the betting comes from off track and often doesn't get into the pool until right before the bell, or even after the race is off.



     All he was saying was that $2.80 was a target price. You can tell by watching the pool amounts if a horse will pay $2.20 or if it will pay $300+.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2006, 01:25:13 AM »

I think you're right. I was always told nobody wins betting horses in the longrun.

False.

Also, I never want to say it's impossible...but it would be VERY difficult to make a living betting show.  IMO, you would need to scout several to many tracks a day in order to find enough correctly valued bets to make it worthwhile.  Just my opinion.

Best,
EW
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Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
RK
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2006, 07:35:46 AM »


    I'm wondering what you people think about what he claims he does for a decent living. Is it possible or do you think this guy is full of it? If he's making 3 to 4 hundred a card he's making some pretty decent money.
     


That would be as much as some of the drivers make a night !!

RK
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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2006, 05:39:16 PM »

maroon  Don't see how it can be done for any extended period.  Betting every race makes it even harder to do.  The track take out, which can be overcome in the win and exotic pools.is a much harder barrier to jump in the show pool. Now, as some have said, by picking your spots you might be able to grind out a small profit. I'll stick to playing the stock market for dough and the horses for fun.
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David
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2006, 06:33:44 PM »

Why would the show pool be harder to overcome the takeout than the win pool? they both have the same takeout and you have more square money in the show pool.

The takeout on the exacta pool is much higher than the wps pools so that is a bigger number to overcome.

Try for fun, I think you will find that just about everyone who is serious enough to read and post on horse boards is capable of coming close to the 75 and 2.80 numbers - with practice and patience it can be done - it is just too boring for most to go after - not to mention how frustrating it is to pick a bunch of horses who win thier races easily but you only bet them to show and are getting 2.80 or 3.20 or whatever back.
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2006, 11:40:14 PM »

Any takeout can be overcome.  The show pool is harder for several reasons. You can, of course, caculate the payouts, which you have to do yourself since the show payout isn't given like win and exacta payouts.
Since the show pool is smaller plunking down a 50-100 dollar bet will affect the payout more than doing a win or exacta bet.  Due to the smaller payouts, the breakage factor also has a greater effect on the return.
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davenchop
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2006, 11:51:48 PM »

how are you going to calculate the show payoffs if you dont know who the top 3 finishers are, not too mention all the off track money that isnt posted until the race starts???
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Brian Collier
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2006, 05:26:30 AM »

      Does anyone know the formula for the show payout? It seems to me they would divide the pool (after takeout) by 3. Then divide by how many $2 bets were played on each horse. Of course by my figurings, this wouldn't always work because the favorite could have less than a $2 payout. So then you give the most played horse a $2.10 payout then the other 2 split the remaining and divide by how many times they were played. Therefore a heavly played horse for show needs to stay off the board for the others to pay well. Am I right? I'm just taking an educated guess.
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