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Author Topic: Cal-Expo Pick Six!!  (Read 6513 times)
edwardwilliam
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« on: November 03, 2005, 04:55:08 PM »

They are pegging it at $50k tonight, but I'm thinking the final tally will be closer to $58-60k, maybe even $65k.

Want an opinion from those out there that play these wagers more than I.  I like two horses in the first two legs (strong numbers, short fields), so I'm considering starting off with two singles up front, and stacking up in the back races where I don't have as strong of an opinion...

Any Pick Six theories out there?  Strategy?

Right now, I'm looking at:

3/3/2-3-6/1-4-5/1-3-4-9/1-5-6-8-9

It's pretty chalky, but I'm going for the connection in the last two.  Right now it's a $360 ticket, and I'm really not looking to invest much more than that...

Best,
EW
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2005, 04:56:51 PM »

my other option would be:

3-2/3/3/1-4-5/1-3-4-9/1-4-5-6-8-9

which is only a $288 ticket.

Opinions either on the races or on theories?

Best,
EW
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2005, 04:59:33 PM »

EW, you can take all your charts and pools and analyze them to death.  If you keep showing an interest in Calpo and Ben Dover, it'll be "GAME OVER LADDIE"...or as my dad would say "if you bet sh*t, you get sh*t"- LOL.  TC
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2005, 05:00:56 PM »

EW, you can take all your charts and pools and analyze them to death.  If you keep showing an interest in Calpo and Ben Dover, it'll be "GAME OVER LADDIE"...or as my dad would say "if you bet sh*t, you get sh*t"- LOL.  TC

It's going to be a $65,000 pool!  It's worth a shot.

Best,
EW
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Joe B
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2005, 05:03:56 PM »

gotta agree with tc......hard to believe one or two of those crooked drivers wont be trying to get a piece of that pool tonight....but it still might be worth a shot....not for $288 though....
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2005, 05:14:05 PM »

Well, you guys are probably right, but a fool I am (sometimes Wink)

My final ticket:
3/2-3/3/1-4-5-7/1-3-4-9/1-4-5-7-9-10 ($384)

Best,
EW
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PickfourNYC
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2005, 05:25:26 PM »

EW

What did you say the carryover was going into tonight; $16k?

Do you think that "speculators" are really going to pump another $40-$50k into this pool tonight?  I generally doubt it.  From a practical matter, the Pick Six pool has no real buzz to it as it pertains to harness racing whatsoever as a gimmick bet (I'm not certain even how successful it was with the Big M), and evern more doubtful that on a Thursday night, one day before prime weekend betting begins, that there's going to be this kind of cash influx into Cal Explode.

Frankly, I'm even wondering how successful the guaranteed $20k P-4 pools have been doing for them, and what I mean by that, whether or not the track has had to dip into it's own pocket to cover their guarantee.  Bottom line, even if they haven't had to cover their own pool, I hardly think they're getting $40k bet into it, and frankly I've always perferred the Pick 4 bet to any Pick 6 being offered (for harness).

While typically a tremendous value play for T-Bred players, the Pick 6 is generally a disastrous harness racing prop bet.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2005, 05:31:47 PM »

EW

What did you say the carryover was going into tonight; $16k?

Do you think that "speculators" are really going to pump another $40-$50k into this pool tonight?  I generally doubt it.  From a practical matter, the Pick Six pool has no real buzz to it as it pertains to harness racing whatsoever as a gimmick bet (I'm not certain even how successful it was with the Big M), and evern more doubtful that on a Thursday night, one day before prime weekend betting begins, that there's going to be this kind of cash influx into Cal Explode.

Frankly, I'm even wondering how successful the guaranteed $20k P-4 pools have been doing for them, and what I mean by that, whether or not the track has had to dip into it's own pocket to cover their guarantee.  Bottom line, even if they haven't had to cover their own pool, I hardly think they're getting $40k bet into it, and frankly I've always perferred the Pick 4 bet to any Pick 6 being offered (for harness).

While typically a tremendous value play for T-Bred players, the Pick 6 is generally a disastrous harness racing prop bet.

Carryover: $29.6K.  Last night, $23k was wagered in.  If the same happens tonight, it'll be $48k pool.  Generally, amounts wagered into these go up about 140-170% each night when they get to this level.  $50k is VERY conservative.

I'm fairly certain they aren't covering the $20k P4, and they are paying pretty well, because you're getting an artifical overlay because they are adding in.  The SWEET bet was when they were guaranteeing it on Wednesday (only did it 2 weeks), because the actual pool was only about $8-9k...the payoffs were incredibly inflated.  Four top three choices paid something like $1,600.

Best,
Ew
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2005, 08:36:17 PM »

Darn it -- my first leg single is scratched.  Time to regroup.

Best,
EW
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baron
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2005, 08:44:10 PM »

You bet Chicago racing.. You have first hand shit knowledge..



EW, you can take all your charts and pools and analyze them to death.  If you keep showing an interest in Calpo and Ben Dover, it'll be "GAME OVER LADDIE"...or as my dad would say "if you bet sh*t, you get sh*t"- LOL.  TC
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2005, 08:46:33 PM »

New ticket.  Definitely betting more than I want to -- stupidity is taking over.

2-4/2-3/3/1-4-5/1-3-4-9/1-4-5-9-10

$480.  Sheesh.

Best,
EW
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2005, 12:27:50 AM »

I got killed tonight (1 of 6 -- whoopie), BUT, I live to see another day!!

Nearly $50,000 carries into tomorrow, with the estimated pool at $100,000!!

If anyone wants to go in, e-mail me.  Trying to put together a group to make a go...

Best,
EW
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sn
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2005, 03:08:00 AM »

EW, forget about trying to rack your brain to hit it tomm. Remember this, the horsemen run the meet out there!!!! if you think they are going to let that $100g's leave that track your crazy!!! they will do what ever they can to keep that $$$ in their own backyard.
Here's a little advice for ya cause i know your still going to play, Put your ticket together with all horses who look like they got no shot, throw out all logical chalks that dont have to win anyway. And dont!! I repeat Dont use RP in any race!!! the only Plano that will be live tomm. will be Luke!!! in the trot race you can single Youngblood Hanover, they will get him home!!
good luck!!!
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2005, 10:10:51 PM »

A gross pool of $108,218.10 greets the bettors tonight.

Here's my ticket:

4-6-8/2-6-7/4-7-8/1-5-6-7/1-2-4-5-7-8-11/7

Best of luck to anyone who also played!!

Best,
EW
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Justafan
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2005, 11:49:54 PM »

That 8 just helped the payoff BIG TIME!  Did you play the $1512, or was it speculation?  If you played it, then come on #7!
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2005, 11:53:41 PM »

That 8 just helped the payoff BIG TIME!  Did you play the $1512, or was it speculation?  If you played it, then come on #7!

Definitely played it!!  Quite a bit riding on the ten-year-old shoulders of Jay Bee's Trump!!

Best,
EW
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sn
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2005, 11:58:31 PM »

Watch this race closely!!! they are checking right now to see who is live and where the tickets are at??
Ew, tape the race and throw it up so we can all analize the video!!!
I wont tell you those two "Jinx" words but you know what I mean!!! I'm pulling for ya!!!
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Justafan
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2005, 12:02:48 AM »

Is Scott E part of the ticket?  You mentioned getting a "group" together and since he is out there and maybe you know him....just wondering how excited he'll be during the stretch call.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2005, 12:05:39 AM »

Is Scott E part of the ticket?  You mentioned getting a "group" together and since he is out there and maybe you know him....just wondering how excited he'll be during the stretch call.

Was not a part of the initial buy-in.  It's always possible that ticket parts could've been sold, but not to my knowledge.

Best,
EW
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2005, 12:07:25 AM »

Watch this race closely!!! they are checking right now to see who is live and where the tickets are at??
Ew, tape the race and throw it up so we can all analize the video!!!
I wont tell you those two "Jinx" words but you know what I mean!!! I'm pulling for ya!!!

According to the feed, Pistochini (owner on my single) is in Hawaii.  The third choice did open as the prohibitive favorite.  Definitely hoping that the early money isn't the smart money!

Best,
EW
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Justafan
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2005, 12:08:04 AM »

Did they announce the pool earlier?  I've been out all night, except for the past 45 mins or so, and was curious what the final tally was.

I figure there would be at most 4 tickets with the 7, and that is at MOST.   Yours could very well be the only 1.  In any event, the race should be interesting.  
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Justafan
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2005, 12:08:43 AM »

We all know how smart the "smart money" can be.  So I rarely sweat that.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2005, 12:15:16 AM »

Did they announce the pool earlier?  I've been out all night, except for the past 45 mins or so, and was curious what the final tally was.

I figure there would be at most 4 tickets with the 7, and that is at MOST.   Yours could very well be the only 1.  In any event, the race should be interesting. 

Final gross pool: $108,218.10.

Come on Jay Bee!

Best,
EW
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Justafan
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2005, 12:18:45 AM »

He didn't have any action, but he knew! 

Congrats!
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2005, 12:19:29 AM »

He didn't have any action, but he knew! 

Congrats!

Well, that's one thing I can take off my lifetime goals list!!!

For the first time in my wagering career, I'm shaking.

Thanks for all the best wishes.

Best,
EW
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