Chicago Barn to Wire Breeders' Cup Handicapping Tournaments
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


October 24, 2014, 11:28:32 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: How to handicap Hawthorne  (Read 2909 times)
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3817




Ignore
« on: February 27, 2006, 11:08:50 PM »

Figure out which horse will get the lead.  Go to the window.  The rest of the race looks like a train going around the track.  I think most handicappers have this figured out as the prices were low today.  It was a 7 out of 9 day today, AGAIN!  Small fields, but that is what happens when you race on Monday and Tuesday.  Hawthorne needs to be owned and run by ONE group both spring and fall if they are to have a future.

Keep the faith, 66 days until AP opens.  Yeah, same kind of racing, but it will be fun and sun at the palace.  HV, come up to Trackside!  I have a placed saved for you between John Frank and Nick.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2006, 11:12:31 PM »

Figure out which horse will get the lead.  Go to the window.

So, how much money did you make today or over the weekend, APCD Dan? It sounds so simple. You must be raking it in.
Report to moderator   Logged
g3tPWNed_24
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1291




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2006, 11:14:06 PM »

if you follow the local game on a daily basis and couldnt rake it in this weekend after friday then somethings wrong with ya
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3817




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2006, 11:21:21 PM »

So, how much money did you make today or over the weekend, APCD Dan? It sounds so simple. You must be raking it in.

Only bet on Saturdays and then at a more interesting track:  Tampa!  All that green grass and sun reminds me of . . .

Jim Miller, hire Terry for PR.  Don't you need one more person on the Hawthorne side to equal out to Sportman's number.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2006, 11:22:32 PM »

if you follow the local game on a daily basis and couldnt rake it in this weekend after friday then somethings wrong with ya

That's what I couldn't figure out. All the geniuses out at the Big Time Horseplaying capital of the U.S.A., Trackside, know all you have to do is bet the front runner at Hawthorne, then you will cash. You would think every price would be $2.40 with those sharpies in the pool. But on Saturday, after a slow $3.20 start, we get $9.20, $36.40, $13.60, $27.20, $21.00, $22.00, $26.40, and $11.80. What's the deal - those geniuses can't even figure out what horse is likely to be on the lead? They got more problems than worrying about track biases if that's the case.
Report to moderator   Logged
g3tPWNed_24
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1291




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2006, 11:25:38 PM »

terry when sportsmans converted to the dual facility people never realized the bias going on there. im not sure maybe they think that like they did when the new sportsmans ran...... that the long stretch automatically meant horses would catch up down the laneLOL. im still amazed the price iron rogue went off@ saturday, jodie fortner didnt make the trip to ride the horse@ the thorne again folks, the leading rider was up
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2006, 11:26:25 PM »

Only bet on Saturdays and then at a more interesting track:  Tampa!

Then why are you whining about a track bias at Hawthorne, a bias of which you'd have no real knowledge since you aren't playing the track? Just being a general purpose goofball?

Quote
All that green grass and sun reminds me of . . .

I'm reminded of what they put on grass to keep it green.
Report to moderator   Logged
BeauNarro
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2800

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.....


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2006, 11:46:31 PM »

And the barns are full of it.
Report to moderator   Logged
John Frank
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2006, 12:21:27 AM »

Terry: I played 3 horses opening day and hit all 3. You expect that on day 1. I hit the 4th. Partly thanks to Dak. I was looking for Zook on Maidens with Stiriz. He said Shenosky. I hit the 6th. That was simple. Hazilton had 2 non-coupled. Silva rode the dropper and Mrs. Silva was at trackside. I hit the 7th. Cheap $5,000 claimer. All you had to do was look at the owner. Rbert Bone from Californa. He gave the pig to Stidman. In california he and Mullins as his trainer win all the time as the world's bggest crooks.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2006, 12:28:22 AM »

Terry: I played 3 horses opening day and hit all 3. You expect that on day 1. I hit the 4th. Partly thanks to Dak. I was looking for Zook on Maidens with Stiriz. He said Shenosky. I hit the 6th. That was simple. Hazilton had 2 non-coupled. Silva rode the dropper and Mrs. Silva was at trackside. I hit the 7th. Cheap $5,000 claimer. All you had to do was look at the owner. Rbert Bone from Californa. He gave the pig to Stidman. In california he and Mullins as his trainer win all the time as the world's bggest crooks.

I know some people did okay, John Frank. On track and at Trackside. I didn't assume speed bias all weekend and ended up doing okay, doing it my usual way based on what I think the race shape will be, and pace. I don't always do well, maybe I just lucked out. Other successful people used their own approaches, like you.

I was just wondering why, IF as APCD Dan says it is so darn simple, all the prices were not $2.40. My contention is APCD Dan is mistaken.
Report to moderator   Logged
John Frank
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1436




Ignore
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2006, 12:58:12 AM »

Terry: APCD is both right and Non-mistaken. The rail is golden. I have hit on others in last 3 days leaving out opening day. I will know tell you how. Look at workouts and also at races last year that horses ran on same day but different races. Also look at races where horses ran VS. a common opponent on diferent days. These being at Hawthorne or Arlington. And look for older droppers. They always come out on the drop. They will run a first good race and then bounce. And I did catch the 5 year old starter maiden. Only because he was running against 3 year olds. and trust me at 5 you are the elite in strength and size. The others are just starting to grow. As a point of fact. Never bet a 3 year old in a maiden race this time of year. Always play the older. Most likely 4. Altough today a 3 year old did win against older. But that was not maiden. I was surprized it wn even though it was the heavy chalk. It was it's frst time running against older and 90% of the time they do not get it done.
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3817




Ignore
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2006, 02:25:13 PM »

Then why are you whining about a track bias at Hawthorne, a bias of which you'd have no real knowledge since you aren't playing the track? Just being a general purpose goofball?

I'm reminded of what they put on grass to keep it green.


Ouch!  I have been spanked here.  Terry, being a class type handicapper, I like to look at the history and connections of horses to see who is best in the race and I do like CLOSERS!  Although I have done very little betting on Hawthorne this year, I DO watch the races and watch what develops.  I see a lot of horses that do not have a chance once the better jockey gets their horse out of the gate first.  That may be fine racing to you, but it is not interesting to me.  Remember, racing is more than just betting to me.

What they put on grass to keep it green is what you have been spreading on this board in defending the track condition of Hawthrone.
Report to moderator   Logged
First Samurai
Full Member
***
Posts: 163




Ignore
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2006, 03:46:47 PM »

HOw to handicapp Hawthorne? Gut it out of the form the night before and throw that section out.
To me it's like betting pop warner football when NFL games are being played.
Follow the same directions for Arlington especially on weekdays.

How about cow racing?
Report to moderator   Logged

Turn the page.......
edwarren
Guest

« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2006, 04:02:51 PM »

nt
« Last Edit: February 28, 2006, 04:36:45 PM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
TC
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4183




Ignore
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2006, 11:52:30 PM »

Two words : OUIJA BOARD !   trotter  TC
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3817




Ignore
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2006, 11:54:20 PM »

From DAK track notes called:  Catch Them If You Can

>>>Even Monday's 10 m.p.h. easterly wind (tail wind in stretch) could not help curtail the speed domination at Hawthorne. Seven of the nine winners took the action virtually gate to wire, and only two closers, Catmeifyoucan (5th) and Rouses Point (7th), both of whom skimmed the rail most of the trip, got their picture taken.

That now means that 27 of the 36 winners this meet have either wired the field, or pressed and pounced their way to victory (75 percent).

Even more astounding is the fact that of the 36 horses that have had the lead past the opening half mile of their respective races, only four of them have failed to hit the board (11 percent), and only eight have been unable to cross the line either first or second (22 percent). The best example of rail domination came in the day's sixth event when a seemingly beaten Dormy Lake came back along the wood to score a narrow decision. <<<<<

Other data:  Tuesday Win prices, 1- 4.80, 2 - 5, 3- 6, 4- 12.20 (go to the bank), 5- 6.20, 6- 5.40, 7- 3.60, 8- 11.60 (a signer?), 9- 3.60

Things better change or Hawthorne will not have a national handle to go with no local handle.  You can call me a goofball but, at least, I am not blind to what is happening!  

Report to moderator   Logged
BeauNarro
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2800

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.....


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2006, 12:41:37 AM »

For Fridays' card:

1)cutting out each race page
2)taping race #1 to my dart board
3)sharpening the dart tips
4)closing my eyes
5)throwing 3 darts
6)follow above steps #1 to #5 for all 9 races
7)make bets and probably win thousands..LOL
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2006, 12:42:02 AM »

Things better change or Hawthorne will not have a national handle to go with no local handle.  You can call me a goofball but, at least, I am not blind to what is happening!

Tell us what IS happening, Dan. How is it, when there's this abnormal "speed bias" everyone is talking about, that keeps closers from having the slightest chance, that any closers win at all? Does the track crew sprinkle magic dust on the track before some races, then POOF! speed bias all gone so a closer can win? Then they sprinkle more magic dust on the track before the next race, to make the bias come back? I've never seen anyone adequately answer the question, maybe you could be the first.

Based on the prices today, seems like the off-track crowd is figuring it out pretty nicely, as they were the only ones betting. Don't you think that's maybe what low prices mean, few surprises? (Six horse fields don't do much for prices either, come to think of it.) Hawthorne is playing about like it always has as long as I have played Hawthorne. Favors early position somewhat more than Arlington, but not a whole lot. Or else all these closer horses currently running at Hawthorne would show all sorts of wins at Arlington, but they don't, do they? Same clunking up for second and third like always, no matter which track. Right?

By the way Dan, on using your class and connections handicapping system, coupled with your preference for closers, to determine whether there's a speed bias at a track, without any reference to what horses are in the race and their running styles - I have a lot of handicapping books with some modern pace handicapping discussions and theories in them. I'll be glad to loan you a few.
Report to moderator   Logged
TC
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 4183




Ignore
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2006, 10:22:31 AM »

The League of Female Handicappers have determined the best way to handicap Hawthorne is :

                                   



 trotter  TC
Report to moderator   Logged
alydar66
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 429




Ignore
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2006, 10:46:47 AM »

Those people out there who think there hasnt been a inside speed bias a Hawthorne this week should not be betting horses.  If you havent made money this week you have to be a COMPLETE IDIOT!  Winning at Hawthorne this week has been like taking candy from a baby. I hope this condtion continues and I get to continue taking all the $ from you blind TEXTBOOK HANDICAPPERS.
Report to moderator   Logged
Stat Man Steve
Elevator Commedian
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 979




Ignore
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2006, 11:02:06 AM »

I have seen a couple I thought should rally flatten out or not get there.  But I've seen more I thought would be closer to the lead never get there, or fade sooner than I thought.  I do believe you have to be close.  But I think the ones that are in better shape right now are more likely to be up close, and many of the expected middle and late runners (not the total no-talents) aren't close enough to their peak condition to make their rallies anyway.  So part of it might be the track, but part of it might be equine conditioning this early in the season, with so many horses coming back off layoffs.
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3817




Ignore
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2006, 12:45:34 PM »

Terry says:

>>Tell us what IS happening, Dan. How is it, when there's this abnormal "speed bias" everyone is talking about, that keeps closers from having the slightest chance, that any closers win at all? Does the track crew sprinkle magic dust on the track before some races, then POOF! speed bias all gone so a closer can win? Then they sprinkle more magic dust on the track before the next race, to make the bias come back? I've never seen anyone adequately answer the question, maybe you could be the first.<<

From my farm background, I would disk and harrow the hell out of that cushion to loosen it up.  With the temperatures getting warmer, a little less sand in the mix may be helpful.  I would especially work over that rail area.

In reality, Hawthorne is definite candidate for Polytrack, in spite of Terry's unproven worries about horses inhaling Polytrack particles.

Finally, if you guys are happy the way things are going at Hawthorne, more power to you, but how long is Hawthorne Nat going to be able to take this financial hit with the racing market being what it is.

You betting guys bet your short-priced speed horses and three gate jockeys that go with them.  Clean up while you can, you may not have a track to be able to do that in the future.  As I have said before, betting is only part of the horse racing scene for me.

Actually, I am for Hawthorne having a good meet.  It is a good springboard to the Arlington meet as hopefully Arlington can be a good springboard to the Hawthorne fall meet.  The two tracks need each other for Illinois racing to survive.  Of course, you can continue to to say nothing is wrong and stick your head in the sand by the rail, although it may be too hard for that.
Report to moderator   Logged
TommyCh
Guest

« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2006, 03:05:50 PM »

Slight aside on Polytrack. In watching a Turfway race Sunday, there was a HUGE cloud of dust and debris kicked up, way over the horses' and jockeys' heads by half again as much. It was like something you would see on only the very driest Southern California days. Now, knowing what's in Polytrack, there is no way it can be good for horses or jockeys. And if there were any conclusive evidence against its safety, do you think the industry would divulge it? It really suprises me the jockey's don't wear masks.




Report to moderator   Logged
David
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 863




Ignore
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2006, 03:47:31 PM »

The dust cloud of the  mixture of rubber, silicia and god knows what else can't possibly be good for anything, but forgetting that from what I understand it is either impossible or financially unfeasible to have polytrack at a dual purpose track like Hawthorne
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2006, 08:43:19 PM »

Finally, if you guys are happy the way things are going at Hawthorne, more power to you, but how long is Hawthorne Nat going to be able to take this financial hit with the racing market being what it is.

So Dr. Dan, is it your diagnosis that the current handle at Hawthorne is due to the alleged speed bias under discussion? On what empirical evidence do you base that conclusion, Dr. Dan?
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.091 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Arlington Million
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy