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Author Topic: Zenyatta to the Classic  (Read 4160 times)
mel4600
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2009, 06:30:17 PM »

Let's see where the mighty Zenyatta draws before figuring odds and/or chances. No matter, though, if she's anything less than 6-1 come post time, she's a huge underlay...Too much risk, considering her recent competition, and her first attempt against the boys.

LOL, the boys she will be running against have never seen the closing speed this mare has. If you get better than 3-1 you are getting great value.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2009, 06:37:36 PM »

She wins Wink, dammit.   And don't forget my rule.  If I don't spell if right, I'm not really swearing. 
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mel4600
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2009, 06:45:42 PM »

She wins Wink, dammit.   And don't forget my rule.  If I don't spell if right, I'm not really swearing. 

 thumbs up beer thumbs up
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DoctorLock
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2009, 06:51:40 PM »

I only hope the excuses don't come piling in if she gets beaten up...Same goes if she wins. Those who knocked her, need to step up to the plate. Personally, I think she'll be no better than 3rd, but still wouldn't be shocked if she fared better. Though, if she wins...I lose; a hell of a lot.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2009, 06:58:44 PM »

I don't see anyone in here resorting to making any excuses for her. 

Anyway, they won't have to.
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mel4600
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2009, 07:18:15 PM »

I only hope the excuses don't come piling in if she gets beaten up...Same goes if she wins. Those who knocked her, need to step up to the plate. Personally, I think she'll be no better than 3rd, but still wouldn't be shocked if she fared better. Though, if she wins...I lose; a hell of a lot.

An excuse is an admission of failure. I won't ask where Rachel is. If Zenyatta loses she will be beaten by a better horse. If she wins, she will make history. I am only making one bet on her, "the nose"!
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2009, 07:29:23 PM »

An excuse is an admission of failure. I won't ask where Rachel is. If Zenyatta loses she will be beaten by a better horse. If she wins, she will make history. I am only making one bet on her, "the nose"!

This is not about Rachel, only about Zenyatta's chances of winning the Classic. But I look forward to you're inevitable posts about how Zenyatta raced in the big event, while that slouch of a filly stayed home. Good luck whatever ensues. Should be a hell of a race.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2009, 07:35:49 PM »

Your credibility took a hit here.
Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, Perfect Drift, Birdstone, Dynever? That goes way deeper than this year's version - or most year's for that matter.

Ghostzapper was great for a while, won nine races in his career.
Roses in May won one Grade 1 race and the Dubai World Cup, eight lifetime wins.
Pleasantly Perfect won the Dubai Cup and eight races in California.
Perfect Drift 11 for 50 lifetime. Did win two Hawthorne Gold Cups, that great Breeder's Cup prep race.
Brirdstone barely won $500,000 and Dynever liked to run second.
The top three had moments of greatness, but I still think you are over-rating this field.
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mel4600
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2009, 07:39:00 PM »

This is not about Rachel, only about Zenyatta's chances of winning the Classic. But I look forward to you're inevitable posts about how Zenyatta raced in the big event, while that slouch of a filly stayed home. Good luck whatever ensues. Should be a hell of a race.

Thought you were talking about excuses by everyone? I know you think Rachel is better because she beat Macho, so she won't have to run on racings biggest day, right? Or maybe you were assuming Zenyatta would lose and I would be making excuses for her, right? Rachel definitely is no slouch! You said that, I didn't. Her connections just know she can't win the Classic, so no excuses needed, that was my point.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2009, 07:40:16 PM »

lol, I will teach you how to read a form one day!

Hey Mel, aren't you the guy that thought Quality Road was the second coming of Christ? You can't just read a Form, you have to be able to interpret it, too.
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mel4600
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2009, 07:47:04 PM »

Hey Mel, aren't you the guy that thought Quality Road was the second coming of Christ? You can't just read a Form, you have to be able to interpret it, too.

After saying the 04 Classic isn't very good, you have officially become the board "clown"! lol

By the way, I thought Quality road was the best 3 year old, as did the odds makers and the betting public when I thought that. That's why you run the races!
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DoctorLock
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2009, 07:47:19 PM »

Ghostzapper was great for a while, won nine races in his career.
Roses in May won one Grade 1 race and the Dubai World Cup, eight lifetime wins.
Pleasantly Perfect won the Dubai Cup and eight races in California.
Perfect Drift 11 for 50 lifetime. Did win two Hawthorne Gold Cups, that great Breeder's Cup prep race.
Brirdstone barely won $500,000 and Dynever liked to run second.
The top three had moments of greatness, but I still think you are over-rating this field.


I actually agree with you about the quality of the field. I didn't research every Classic to date, but I also don't remember ever asking myself--in any Classic--"These are the best runners in the world?" One correction, though: Ghostzapper became one of the great runners of all time. What does "great for a while mean?" He retired at the top of his game when no one could touch him.
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mel4600
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2009, 08:23:36 PM »

Earl,

Here are Ghostzappers PP's along with 2000 Classic winner Tiznow and with Azeri's PP's (she was 15-1 in the 2004 Classic). What do you think Tiznow's odds would be?

Azeri won more Grade 1's than the entire 2000 field combined!

http://thedailyracingform.org/eclipse/2004/pps/ghostzapper.pdf

http://www.bloodhorse.com/eclipsewinners/pdf/2001_Older_Male.pdf

http://www.drf.com/eclipse/2003/pps/azeri.pdf

At Four (2002)
1st. Breeders' Cup Distaff, G1
1st. Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap, G1
1st. Apple Blossom Handicap, G1
1st. Milady Breeders' Cup Handicap, G1
1st. Vanity Handicap, G1
1st. Clement L. Hirsch Handicap, G2
1st. Lady's Secret Breeders' Cup Handicap, G2
2nd. La Canada Stakes, G2
At Five (2003)
1st. Apple Blossom Handicap, G1
1st. Milady BCH, G1
1st. Vanity Handicap, G1
1st. Clement L. Hirsch Handicap, G2
2nd. Lady's Secret BCH, G2
At Six (2004)
1st. Apple Blossom Handicap, G1
1st. Go For Wand Handicap, G1
1st. Spinster Stakes, G1
2nd. Humana Distaff Handicap, G1
2nd. Personal Ensign Handicap, G1
[edit] Awards and honors


Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year (2002)
Eclipse Award for Outstanding Older Female Horse (2002, 2003, 2004)
Eleven-race win streak
Highest Female Money Earner in North America
« Last Edit: November 01, 2009, 08:34:33 PM by mel4600 » Report to moderator   Logged
ChitownSteve75
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2009, 08:04:02 AM »

Ghostzapper was great for a while, won nine races in his career.
Roses in May won one Grade 1 race and the Dubai World Cup, eight lifetime wins.
Pleasantly Perfect won the Dubai Cup and eight races in California.
Perfect Drift 11 for 50 lifetime. Did win two Hawthorne Gold Cups, that great Breeder's Cup prep race.
Brirdstone barely won $500,000 and Dynever liked to run second.
The top three had moments of greatness, but I still think you are over-rating this field.


ARE YOU NUTS!  doh Show me a race with 3 BC Classic winners and 2 World Cup winners! SHOW ME! In this post you forget to mention that Pleasantly Perfect won both the 2003 Classic and the Dubai World Cup! Only 2 other horses have accomplished that feat (Cigar & Curlin). The 2000 race isn't a pimple on this races ass! You also conveniently left out Azeri's name! lol. 
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ZENYATTA THE GREAT! NOT RA!
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2009, 09:30:07 AM »

ARE YOU NUTS!  doh Show me a race with 3 BC Classic winners and 2 World Cup winners! SHOW ME! In this post you forget to mention that Pleasantly Perfect won both the 2003 Classic and the Dubai World Cup! Only 2 other horses have accomplished that feat (Cigar & Curlin). The 2000 race isn't a pimple on this races ass! You also conveniently left out Azeri's name! lol. 

Who were these horses beating? Each other?
The Cigars, Curlins, Easy Goers, Forty Niners, John Henrys, Seattle Slews, Affirmeds, Spectacular Bids, and others would have crushed this field.
Yeah, Ghostzapper was good, but he sure didn't race much.
As for Azeri, she was one of the all-time greats. But by the time she got to this race she was finished. Got beat off a layoff at 1/5 her out before and had no chance in the race, a couple too many times around the pike for D. Wayne "The Butcher" Lukas.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2009, 10:00:31 AM »

Who were these horses beating? Each other?
The Cigars, Curlins, Easy Goers, Forty Niners, John Henrys, Seattle Slews, Affirmeds, Spectacular Bids, and others would have crushed this field.
Yeah, Ghostzapper was good, but he sure didn't race much.
As for Azeri, she was one of the all-time greats. But by the time she got to this race she was finished. Got beat off a layoff at 1/5 her out before and had no chance in the race, a couple too many times around the pike for D. Wayne "The Butcher" Lukas.

This was a brutally tough Classic field heading in -- one of the deepest in memory.

And it wound up being run as if it were one of the toughest ever with Ghostzapper turning in a freakish performance (yet another). While I'm not certain what the point is of trying to determine whether or not Seattle Slew or Affirmed would have won is, it seems quite clear in hindsight that Curlin would have had essentially no chance of finding his way to the winner's circle in that race. Even Cigar, who was one of the most awesome racehorses in recent times and whose nose for the wire is close to unmatched in recent memory, would have had plenty of trouble, as he was never flashy. Ghostzapper was brilliant, turned in a brilliant performance that day, and did so against a ridiculously deep field.

That's all the stuff on paper.

As far as personal opinions, I have little doubt in my mind that had Ghostzapper stayed healthy throughout his career, he would be hands-down the most brilliant horse of the decade. In fact, even with his brief career, despite having come up short compared to some from an accomplishments perspective due to his relatively few running lines, he probably still IS the most brilliant runner of this decade. A horse like that doesn't come along often, and it's a shame he wasn't able to show it more than he did. The way he waxed that field, full of runners with every right to win a BC Classic, was simply awesome.
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mel4600
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2009, 10:45:03 AM »

This was a brutally tough Classic field heading in -- one of the deepest in memory.

And it wound up being run as if it were one of the toughest ever with Ghostzapper turning in a freakish performance (yet another). While I'm not certain what the point is of trying to determine whether or not Seattle Slew or Affirmed would have won is, it seems quite clear in hindsight that Curlin would have had essentially no chance of finding his way to the winner's circle in that race. Even Cigar, who was one of the most awesome racehorses in recent times and whose nose for the wire is close to unmatched in recent memory, would have had plenty of trouble, as he was never flashy. Ghostzapper was brilliant, turned in a brilliant performance that day, and did so against a ridiculously deep field.

That's all the stuff on paper.

As far as personal opinions, I have little doubt in my mind that had Ghostzapper stayed healthy throughout his career, he would be hands-down the most brilliant horse of the decade. In fact, even with his brief career, despite having come up short compared to some from an accomplishments perspective due to his relatively few running lines, he probably still IS the most brilliant runner of this decade. A horse like that doesn't come along often, and it's a shame he wasn't able to show it more than he did. The way he waxed that field, full of runners with every right to win a BC Classic, was simply awesome.

Brian,

Right on the money, and a very well written accurate assessment!  thumbs up
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mel4600
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2009, 10:51:38 AM »

The Cigars, Curlins, Easy Goers, Forty Niners, John Henrys, Seattle Slews, Affirmeds, Spectacular Bids, and others would have crushed this field.
Yeah, Ghostzapper was good, but he sure didn't race much.

Maybe Seattle Slew (my favorite of all time) and maybe Cigar. On that day when Ghostzapper went 1:59 flat for the 1 1/4 mile distance, it would have been a real horse race. The others you mentioned wouldn't stand a chance (John Henry? grass horse).
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2009, 11:44:05 AM »

Who were these horses beating? Each other?

Didn't have time to dig into too much, but a very cursory glance shows that besides beating "each other," these pigs from the '04 Classic had also beaten up on some slouches like:

Mineshaft
St. Liam
Medaglia D'Oro
Congaree
Smarty Jones
Aldebaran
Good Reward
Tenpins

Basically, the types of horses who everyone can agree provided nothing but free passes to the winner's circle to those lining up against them in the gate.

 screwy
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2009, 12:10:40 PM »

Sorry for butting in to your little discussion, but aside from Ghostzapper, a genuine monster, the rest of the field comprised nice runners, multiple Grade 1-types, but aside from Azeri (far from at her best) none of them take your breath away.

Brian, in the same vain, while nobody catches Ghostzapper at Lone Star, I would take Curlin over every one of the others in that Classic field. It's possible you just weren't a fan of Curlin, but on guts alone, and if at the top of his game, he would be a worthy challenger to the best of the decade.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2009, 12:19:11 PM »

Sorry for butting in to your little discussion, but aside from Ghostzapper, a genuine monster, the rest of the field comprised nice runners, multiple Grade 1-types, but aside from Azeri (far from at her best) none of them take your breath away.

Brian, in the same vain, while nobody catches Ghostzapper at Lone Star, I would take Curlin over every one of the others in that Classic field. It's possible you just weren't a fan of Curlin, but on guts alone, and if at the top of his game, he would be a worthy challenger to the best of the decade.

Big fan of Curlin.
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DoctorLock
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2009, 12:32:22 PM »

Big fan of Curlin.

an objective fan?...Nah, no such thing.
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2009, 12:51:54 PM »

an objective fan?...Nah, no such thing.

Trust me, I'd take Curlin over most of them, too.

Was more speaking that in that race, no way could he have won it without producing a significant career-best effort...and it’s not even clear that Ghostzapper turned in an absolute career-best performance in that race either, which makes his effort that day extra scary (I believe figs will say the Iselin was his best, but it’s tough to watch the Classic and think it’s possible he could be better than THAT….very scary to think).

I’d probably take Roses in May over Curlin too, but with plenty more reservations, as I think he was a chronically underrated horse throughout his entire career and had the unfortunate luck of running into ‘Zapper that day.

The rest? Curlin could handle them – but on depth alone, that field was about as tough as they get.
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mel4600
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2009, 06:53:27 PM »

Trust me, I'd take Curlin over most of them, too.

Was more speaking that in that race, no way could he have won it without producing a significant career-best effort...and it’s not even clear that Ghostzapper turned in an absolute career-best performance in that race either, which makes his effort that day extra scary (I believe figs will say the Iselin was his best, but it’s tough to watch the Classic and think it’s possible he could be better than THAT….very scary to think).

I’d probably take Roses in May over Curlin too, but with plenty more reservations, as I think he was a chronically underrated horse throughout his entire career and had the unfortunate luck of running into ‘Zapper that day.

The rest? Curlin could handle them – but on depth alone, that field was about as tough as they get.


Brian,

You have been dead on the money this entire topic. I think the main question the others should answer is, did Curlin run against a more impressive field than Ghostzapper? After all, what we are talking about is the overall quality of the field.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2009, 06:58:12 PM »

(John Henry? grass horse).

Among John Henry's dirt races: 6/5/79 --- Allowance race at Mon, 1st by 14 lengths
                                        1/20/80 --- Sam Marcos Hcp. (G-3) SA  won "handily"
                                       10/4/80 --- Jockey Club Gold Cup (G-1) 2nd behind Temperance Hill                   3/8/81 --- Santa Anita Hcp. (G-1) winner
                                       10/10/81 --- Jockey Club Gold Cup (G-1) winner
                                        3/7/82 --- Santa Anita Hcp. (G-1) beaten by a nose by Perrault, placed first for being impreded
                                       6/24/84 --- Hollywood Gold Cup (G-1) second behind Desert Wine

Mel, you've really got to learn how to read The Daily Racing Form!
 beer
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