Chicago Barn to Wire BRIS
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


October 21, 2014, 11:48:10 AM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Graded Stakes Committee to use Thoro-Graph numbers  (Read 3736 times)
Horse Voice
Guest

« on: October 23, 2009, 11:10:37 PM »

Graded Stakes Committee will use Thoro-Graph performance figures as part of the upcoming grading process.

Story at:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/October/22/Graded-stakes-committee-to-use-speed-figures.aspx
Report to moderator   Logged
Earl Sande
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2142




Ignore
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2009, 06:14:25 PM »

I'm sure they'll still find a way to be biased towards races in New York.
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2009, 07:37:12 PM »

Perhaps -- but if so, it won't be due to any coastal bias inherent to the TG numbers...unlike the Beyer numbers, which I used to have to adjust downward by about 10% when an East Coast horse shipped into the midwest or further west.

The TG numbers are the most fair and consistent of any figure service out there -- that's why I use them.

Report to moderator   Logged
Thomas Graham
Guest

« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2009, 07:38:22 PM »

Should numbers - be it Sheets, TG, Beyer or anyone - be used as a basis for stakes grades?
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2009, 12:46:56 AM »

Should numbers - be it Sheets, TG, Beyer or anyone - be used as a basis for stakes grades?

At the minimum, it's supported by precedent; they used to use BRIS speed figures. Don't know why they got away from those.

Besides, isn't some of the grading of these stakes determined by who actually shows up for the race? You know the old argument: if a bunch of $10K claimers show up for a Grade 3 race, does that make them Grade 3 horses? And is the race really a Grade 3 race?
 
Solid, consistent, and trustworthy performance figures can help answer these kinds of questions objectively, I think -- if applied in a consistent and objective manner. (There's the rub, for the skeptics.)
Report to moderator   Logged
Thomas Graham
Guest

« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2009, 10:14:15 AM »

I didn't realize they used BRIS figs As many readers of this forum know, I am an older person - handicapping from long before the days of Beyer speed figs, or sheets or anything like that and have held my own.  I just don't believe in ANY numbers but to those who swear by them and do well - more power to them as I do believe there is more than one correct way to handicap/bet and only the end result matters.  If you make money picking names, colors, whatever - great.  If you use BSF, BRIS, TG, Sheets or voodoo and it works - great.  Me, I use the DRF, basic trip notes (which I now have to write down as my memory isn't what it once was) and common sense and do just fine.  Of course, I bet so little anyway, that perhaps its just the idea of shelling out anything over and above the price of the DRF is what gets me.

Anyway, the graded stakes system is so flawed IMHO amyway, I doubt this idea can make it any worse.

Happy Sunday all.

TJG
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2009, 03:53:45 PM »

Anyway, the graded stakes system is so flawed IMHO amyway, I doubt this idea can make it any worse.

It could make the system better, but it's going to take guts to tell "Swanky Track X" that their Big Big Grade I race, "The Snobbiblob", is being downgraded due to recent substandard participation and resulting poor performance figures of same.

It would be pretty cut and dried if the TG guys themselves were making the call ("nobody in here can less than a 2?...sorry, not a Grade I race"), but put those same numbers in the hands of people who influenced by things other than hard numbers, and all bets are off.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2009, 07:15:39 PM »

It could make the system better, but it's going to take guts to tell "Swanky Track X" that their Big Big Grade I race, "The Snobbiblob", is being downgraded due to recent substandard participation and resulting poor performance figures of same.

It would be pretty cut and dried if the TG guys themselves were making the call ("nobody in here can less than a 2?...sorry, not a Grade I race"), but put those same numbers in the hands of people who influenced by things other than hard numbers, and all bets are off.

Well, of course we know those numbers are flawed and highly subjective anyhow, so why anyone should grade races based on them is questionable to begin with. It's just one factor to consider, assuming you think they mean anything.

Let Thorograph or The Sheets make their own grading system for races. See who cares.
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2009, 09:01:43 PM »

Well, of course we know those numbers are flawed and highly subjective anyhow

"We"? We who?

...so why anyone should grade races based on them is questionable to begin with.

Oh, really? This is you, questioning the wisdom of the American Graded Stakes Committee? Exactly what is your experience in assessing and grading stakes races in this country? Is it your premise that you are smarter than all of those guys, too?

It's just one factor to consider, assuming you think they mean anything.

Doesn't matter what you or I think -- this is the Graded Stakes Committee's decision to use TG numbers to assist them in their decision-making process. Maybe you should call them, and set them straight. I'm sure they've heard of you and are waiting for you to weigh in with your opinion.

Let Thorograph or The Sheets make their own grading system for races. See who cares.

Well, indirectly, TG will be doing just that. And track owners, horse breeders, and horse owners DO care about things like that -- your eminent wisdom and all-encompassing knowledge notwithstanding.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2009, 10:59:41 PM »

"We"? We who?

"Everyone".

The same "everyone" who knows that if sheets numbers were all that accurate and predictive, every horse would pay $2.10 ... but they don't.

Quote
oh, really? This is you, questioning the wisdom of the American Graded Stakes Committee? Exactly what is your experience in assessing and grading stakes races in this country? Is it your premise that you are smarter than all of those guys, too?

They're getting some numbers for free as a promo. Big deal.

Quote
Doesn't matter what you or I think -- this is the Graded Stakes Committee's decision to use TG numbers to assist them in their decision-making process.

They got some numbers as a promo. Just like they used to get BRIS numbers as a promo.

Quote
Maybe you should call them, and set them straight. I'm sure they've heard of you and are waiting for you to weigh in with your opinion.

Not at all. They have more sense than to blow a gasket over minor tweaking, like you are doing. People have been 2nd guessing them for years, and their skin is pretty thick.

Quote
Well, indirectly, TG will be doing just that. And track owners, horse breeders, and horse owners DO care about things like that -- your eminent wisdom and all-encompassing knowledge notwithstanding.

Yes, yes. So popular, and so widely accepted it remains a small, small cult, even to this day. Go figure - the Holy Grail, and people are too dumb to find it.
Report to moderator   Logged
Exbourne
Drunk fat and good
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1587




Ignore
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2009, 11:33:52 PM »

Im gonna get beat up for this...
The numbers dont lie...At Least for stakes horses.
Claimers is a different story.
But True stake runners hold there numbers to a certain extent
Report to moderator   Logged

I drink,I smoke,I gamble.
What a Life!!!
7/29/05.
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2009, 11:37:32 PM »

Im gonna get beat up for this...
The numbers dont lie...At Least for stakes horses.
Claimers is a different story.
But True stake runners hold there numbers to a certain extent

No doubt that's why there's never any dispute between TG and Ragozin sheets numbers for horses.
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2009, 02:13:37 AM »

"Everyone".

The same "everyone" who knows that if sheets numbers were all that accurate and predictive, every horse would pay $2.10 ... but they don't.

That the same line of bullshit you have been spouting for years.

The numbers are an accurate representation of the performances recorded, per their methodology. You can't refute this, because you simply don't have any proof to the contrary. (Unless you DO have their formulas, methodology, etc., and can prove that they have been applying these incorrectly to the raw data.)

But predictive? Who said the numbers themselves were predictive? That's your baggage, your spin, the crud you've been spewing to discredit TG and other numbers services. It's not clever at all.

The predictive part is up to the person reading and applying the numbers. Thoro-Graph DOES NOT make that claim.

Therefore, your premise that the numbers are "flawed and highly subjective" has no foundation whatsoever.

Yes, yes. So popular, and so widely accepted it remains a small, small cult, even to this day. Go figure - the Holy Grail, and people are too dumb to find it.

You said it, I didn't.

Fact is, plenty of people have "found" TG...but many are too lazy to learn how to use the information. I suspect that you are one of these people.

(On a larger scale, we see this every day in the real world, away from horse racing: many people either know or can figure out what it takes to be successful, but they don't do it, because it takes WORK and THINKING and EFFORT. The most thought the average schmuck puts into anything is counting down the hours until he can get off of work and open his next can of beer.)

Don't know about this "small, small cult" thing -- as if hordes of people using a particular product is the only empirical proof of it's value -- but OK, let's run with it for a few minutes:

* a small, small number of trainers uses TG on a regular basis to manage their stables and evaluate potential claims and purchases. No one has ever heard of these cultista trainers, either: Steve Asmussen, Scott Lake, Vladmir Cerin, King Leatherbury, Doug O'Neill...to name a few. All zero percent guys, complete failures, all of them.

* only 82 stakes winners have been recommended for, and subsequently purchased by, clients of Thoro-Graph. But these were obscure horses that no one outside the cult has every heard of: Student Council, Victory Gallop, Distorted Humor, Da Hoss,  Rachel Alexandra...to name a few.

* Owner Ro Parra said in an interview with BloodHorse.com that his racing stable "did not begin competing and winning Graded stakes races on a regular basis until we hired Thoro-Graph and Jerry Brown back in 2003". But no one has ever heard of Ro Parra or Millenium Farms. Must be one of those small-timers from Ruidoso Downs, or Kamloops. 

* only complete "nobody" horseplayers that no one has ever heard of use TG regularly, and have openly credited TG for their assistance in taking down major contests, such as Roger Neubauer, Paul Shurman, Cheryl Kaufman, Ron Geary, Howard Hong...to name a few.

(Hmm...not very many at all, I must admit. Just some of the most successful in their respective categories. Just a fluke, I'm sure.)

Yeah...pathetic, flaming idiot lemmings, these TG cultists. And you are smarter than every one of them, too. I don't know how you ever leave the house, what with that giant, swelled up head of yours. 
Report to moderator   Logged
Earl Sande
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2142




Ignore
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2009, 07:30:36 AM »

"We"? We who?

Oh, really? This is you, questioning the wisdom of the American Graded Stakes Committee? Exactly what is your experience in assessing and grading stakes races in this country? Is it your premise that you are smarter than all of those guys, too?


The American Graded Stakes Committee is like the U.S. Senate --- all you have to do is look at the results. We've got to be smarter than they are!
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2009, 09:53:47 AM »

The American Graded Stakes Committee is like the U.S. Senate --- all you have to do is look at the results.

Well, then maybe this is where data Thoro-Graph can help most -- to make more sense of how stakes races are graded.

We've got to be smarter than they are!

I get the joke, Earl, but this is no laughing matter to breeders and owners. The coveted "Black Type" sells horses. It's important that U.S. Graded Stakes ratings recapture some of their former credibility.

The next rating session starts December 2, I believe. We'll see if these guys shake things up a little, or if they just go with the status quo; if it's the former, New York racing could be in for a bit of a shock.
Report to moderator   Logged
NIATROSS
Guest

« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2009, 10:11:47 AM »

Doesn't the US have a greater % of their races listed as graded stakes vs all of Europe combined ?


The one thing I would like to see is having a minimum amount of starters in a G3 or above stake.I do believe there are more graded races then 25-30 yrs ago thus diluting the fields and the quality of the race IMO.
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2009, 11:23:07 AM »

I do believe there are more graded races then 25-30 yrs ago thus diluting the fields and the quality of the race IMO.

I'm with ya on this 'Tross. Too many of them...and not a sharp enough pencil being applied to some existing ones. As an example, (local racing fans will have a fit about this, but) IMO the Arlington Million hasn't been a Grade I contest for years.

To be clear, it is only a HOPE of mine that the Committee can use Thoro-Graph information effectively to at least achieve some parity across the land, so that the Grades actually mean something. I can't offer any guarantees. I suspect that Thoro-Graph will be watching the Committee's moves closely, though, and that they won't tolerate an ongoing association of bullshit stakes race rankings to their flagship product.

The bottom line is: if Committee members won't grow a pair and do the right thing with some of these overrated stakes, it won't matter if the data was handed down from the Mt. Sinai on stone tablets.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2009, 11:47:26 AM »

The numbers are an accurate representation of the performances recorded, per their methodology.

Yes, per their flawed and subjective methodology.

Quote
You can't refute this, because you simply don't have any proof to the contrary. (Unless you DO have their formulas, methodology, etc., and can prove that they have been applying these incorrectly to the raw data.)

I do know that the TG's and The Sheets treat some very subjective adjustments like ground loss and wind different than the other guy, so one of them is wrong/flawed every race. Which one? Who knows?

Quote
But predictive? Who said the numbers themselves were predictive?

You are correct, it was not in this thread, it's merely holdover baggage from previous claims on the part of various Sheets users. The issue here is the use of subjective numbers like TG (or any speed fig) in grading stakes races, especially numbers that supposedly prove horses are getting faster every day, and - as you rightly point out - no one really knows what went into making that sausage.   

Quote
(On a larger scale, we see this every day in the real world, away from horse racing: many people either know or can figure out what it takes to be successful, but they don't do it, because it takes WORK and THINKING and EFFORT. The most thought the average schmuck puts into anything is counting down the hours until he can get off of work and open his next can of beer.)

Or, maybe he discovers for himself, or observes in others, that numbers in a $6 newspaper produce just as well when it comes to the only real item of importance, predicting what is going to happen in today's race - because as we all know, numbers themselves are not predictive, it's what you do with them.

Quote
Don't know about this "small, small cult" thing -- as if hordes of people using a particular product is the only empirical proof of it's value -- but OK, let's run with it for a few minutes:

Blah blah blah on the relatively small list of names of TG people and horses, dwarfed by the numbers and names of winners NOT on it. Yeah, whatever.
Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
Guest

« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2009, 12:51:14 PM »

Yes, per their flawed and subjective methodology.

Got any hard evidence to back up this assertion?

Or, maybe he discovers for himself, or observes in others, that numbers in a $6 newspaper produce just as well when it comes to the only real item of importance, predicting what is going to happen in today's race - because as we all know, numbers themselves are not predictive, it's what you do with them.

That's a fairly breezy assessment. Tell us whether YOU have actually put in the time and effort to use TG or the Rags -- this "observes in others" stuff is a much too convenient way out for (as mentioned before) someone who doesn't want to do the work.

Blah blah blah on the relatively small list of names of TG people and horses, dwarfed by the numbers and names of winners NOT on it. Yeah, whatever.

Quality over quantity, bud.

Top trainers in the land...Rachel Alexandra recommended for purchase WAY before anyone in the mainstream heard of her...top handicappers / bettors...all stacked against you're trite dismissal of TG as an insignificant "cult".

Your credentials? You've owned the ass end of some insignificant platers, never trained a horse, never won a contest of any sort, and your posts run all over the Internet like diarrhea -- EXCEPT when it comes to selections and online contests... then, your fingers mysteriously lock up.

Gee, who should we believe?  Roll Eyes
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3809




Ignore
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2009, 02:41:45 PM »

>>>Your credentials? You've owned the ass end of some insignificant platers, never trained a horse, never won a contest of any sort, and your posts run all over the Internet like diarrhea -- EXCEPT when it comes to selections and online contests... then, your fingers mysteriously lock up.

Gee, who should we believe?  <<<

This a great summation of Terry, HV.  In all fairness, though, he is busy doing some kind of personal-type report on which ADW is the best.
Report to moderator   Logged
APCD Dan
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3809




Ignore
« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2009, 02:46:14 PM »

I know that NY, KY, and CA horses are the best around so there should be more graded races in these states.  I just can't believe that almost every stakes race in these states is graded.  They can't find enough days to host their graded races.  This seems like a bit much.
Report to moderator   Logged
NIATROSS
Guest

« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2009, 02:59:03 PM »

I do believe the number of races being run has increased over the last 25 yrs.The foal crops have remained about the same in the 35-37500 range ove the same time period.IMO what they have done with the graded stakes is the same as pro sports have done with expansion.Unless you have a specific team to root for does anyone real watch a whole baseball game before the playoffs ? Does the thought of watching below .500 teams compete in the early rounds of Basketball or Hockey playoffs interest you ?

Increasing the amount of graded stakes with basically the same size crops from yrs ago makes no sense to me.

HV ,

I agree about the Million.The same can be said for the stake in NY that is run about the same time on the turf,the name escapes me at the moment.Same old problem,racing has no master plan just states fending for themselves.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2009, 03:46:08 PM »

Got any hard evidence to back up this assertion?

I already told you two.

Quote
That's a fairly breezy assessment. Tell us whether YOU have actually put in the time and effort to use TG or the Rags

I put in quite a bit of time and effort some years back, and found they were good enough speed numbers, but that the cult-like "sheets reading" was little more than nonsense. When people got it right, it was entirely due to the awesome and magical predictive power of the sheets, but when they got it wrong, it was always due to someone not being a good enough sheet reader, as opposed to the real truth of the matter, which was that whatever they thought they saw in those chicken bones they cast was just plain hooey. It's a self fulfilling prophecy at its worst. A person can make the same sort of "pattern" assumptions off any reasonable set of pp's and spend a lot less money in doing so. It's all about "value", you know.

Quote
-- this "observes in others" stuff is a much too convenient way out for (as mentioned before) someone who doesn't want to do the work.

So say you. You're all about appeals to authority ... when you see sheets authorities falling on their face with their sheets reads, it tells you something you don't need to work very hard at all to learn.

Quote
Top trainers in the land...Rachel Alexandra recommended for purchase WAY before anyone in the mainstream heard of her...top handicappers / bettors...all stacked against you're trite dismissal of TG as an insignificant "cult".

Yes, the vast bulk of the industry that's stacked up on the other side, the non-TG users, make your examples a small cult. I don't know about insignificant, because they've sure managed to talk themselves into racing's consciousness. Your examples were some successful people and horses, to be sure, but they are a small number and do not make up the entire universe of success or anything close to it, and of course, you conveniently failed to mention all the trainers, owners, bloodstock agents, etc. who have based decisions on TG and come up totally empty.

Quote
Your credentials?

Irrelevant to the facts under discussion, as always, as are yours.

The bottom line as far as the Graded Stakes committee is that it is about inclusion of more and more horses in black type, not finding reasons for exclusion. Inclusion sells more expensive horses to more people, because they might get some of their money back at the end if that horse can get some black type. Same reason the Breeders' Cup was expanded. If the TG's get used in any meaningful way at all (besides advertising like a QH S.I.), IMHO it's going to be to justify MORE black type, not find reasons to downgrade races.
Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
Guest

« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2009, 03:48:51 PM »

This a great summation of Terry, HV.  In all fairness, though, he is busy doing some kind of personal-type report on which ADW is the best.

And if we wanted, we could sum you up as "far less actual racing experience/accomplishment than even Terry" - but of course, that never gives you any pause.
Report to moderator   Logged
Marcus Hersh
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1103




Ignore
« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2009, 04:20:46 PM »

Perhaps -- but if so, it won't be due to any coastal bias inherent to the TG numbers...unlike the Beyer numbers, which I used to have to adjust downward by about 10% when an East Coast horse shipped into the midwest or further west.


The most extreme i can recall seeing is Great Lakes to about any other dirt track. GLD seemed consistently low by 20-30 points for several years.
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.09 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Arlington Million
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy