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Author Topic: Get the speed bias right!  (Read 2902 times)
BeauNarro
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« on: February 25, 2006, 12:36:40 AM »

It was a good day of races opening day at Hawthorne, but I noticed that 6 of the 9 winners were in the lead or no worse than 3rd out of the gate. I know this is common for the first few days, but hopefully Greg Cardenas and Al Jozwiack will get it to the condition they had it in from late last November till the end of the meet. I haven't seen the track as un-biased in a few years as it was then. I winning times also seemed to pick-up towards the last races with a 1:09 and change for the last race.

There weren't that many patrons on the first floor either. Gotta pick it up boys and girls!
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vcackerman
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2006, 06:13:25 AM »


There weren't that many patrons on the first floor either. Gotta pick it up boys and girls!

I was commenting to my wife that I didn't see very much advertising in the papers or on the radio for the opening.   That has to explain some of it.

If the equibase charts are right(they look out of whack) [ On Track Handle: 226,070   Off track wagering: 2.45M   ], it's going to be tough to justify pushing for Feb openings next year.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2006, 07:40:04 AM »

It was a good day of races opening day at Hawthorne, but I noticed that 6 of the 9 winners were in the lead or no worse than 3rd out of the gate. I know this is common for the first few days, but hopefully Greg Cardenas and Al Jozwiack will get it to the condition they had it in from late last November till the end of the meet. I haven't seen the track as un-biased in a few years as it was then. I winning times also seemed to pick-up towards the last races with a 1:09 and change for the last race.

Does that necessarily mean speed bias, a raw count like that? There were a number of races yesterday that weren't blessed with a lot of speed horses, then when you did get races loaded up like the 6th, they got an honest pace and the winner came flying from behind. If there's a real speed bias, you'd think maybe one of those horses in the 6th runs the :21 :45 and still hangs on to win, but as it happened two of the horses in the duel died like you'd expect, and the best finisher faded back to 3rd. Same with the 7th race it was loaded, reasonable pace, and a deep closer to win. Then OTOH a race like the 8th that looks loaded but ends up being a boat race on a fast pace.

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There weren't that many patrons on the first floor either. Gotta pick it up boys and girls!

It was pretty full for a Friday, I thought, grandstand side. Busier on clubhouse side. Not jammed though.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2006, 07:09:16 PM »

I thought today was very fair, too. When there was pressure on the speed, it folded up and closers got up, but if there was little or no pressure, the horses on or near the lead hung on. That's what you would expect from a fair track.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2006, 09:11:06 PM »

Today Saturday was the same thing...6 out of 9 races the winner was no worse than 3rd by 1 length coming into the 1/4 pole. I still see that as speed biased especially when out of the 12 winning front runners( of which many are not usually in front or not able to hold the lead) there were several very good closers that couldn't get close at all.
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jrstark
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2006, 11:12:43 PM »

Yesterday they bladed the rail after the races.  Today there were three rakes going around.  See if it changes tomorrow.
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Stat Man Steve
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2006, 11:19:46 PM »

FWIW, when I left around 6:30 tonight, it looked like they might have had the 'clod breaker' out there - couldn't see through the fence in the dark, but there was lots of loose sand flying up in the air.  So maybe they're trying to break up any hardness and sift the sand some more.  Not sure if this is just standard procedure, standard winter procedure, or an attempt to correct anythiing they feel might need correcting.   
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2006, 11:51:44 PM »

From what Janine and Steve informed us of I'll bet tomorrow will be much better.. grading and harrowing  out from the rail. Even though Greg Cardenas is a good track man, I heard on opening day that management as upped Al Jozwiak(considered one of the best track men in the country) to be on equal terms now on the crew with Greg. Al J. came over from NJC at the merger and until recently he has had no say on how to prepare the track. He was just another tractor driver.
No matter how anyone felt about the old NJC, the track was always in great condition thanks to Al J.

Gawd--It seems like I'm knocking Greg, but I'm not. He's dam good in his own right, but Al J. has so much more experiance.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2006, 06:42:52 AM »

Today Saturday was the same thing...6 out of 9 races the winner was no worse than 3rd by 1 length coming into the 1/4 pole. I still see that as speed biased especially when out of the 12 winning front runners( of which many are not usually in front or not able to hold the lead) there were several very good closers that couldn't get close at all.

Tell you what, we've been around and around on this before, and I'm not going to make any special effort from the charts argue your contention, as entirely too much effort has been wasted on this discussion in the past. The people who want to handicap based on a belief in a speed bias, go right ahead. I'll just leave a couple parting thoughts.

1) I still don't think you can do a raw count like that and declare a speed bias. A speed bias only exists when races are not playing out like they should based on the horses in them. When bad speed horses hang on in races loaded with speed AND more importantly the expected pace duel scenario actually plays out, or when closer horses can't close at all to get into their normal finish positions of 2nd and 3rd. If there is no dedicated speed horses in a race it does not mean a good closer is necessarily going to win, more likely a normally mediocre presser is all of a sudden going to have a speed advantage. If there's good speed horses in a race and one hangs on that's no surprise - that's why they are good horses. If there's several speed horses in a race and they actually get into it early, which IMHO it is relatively uncommon for the jocks in Chicago to do, then a closer should win, just like happened in a race like the Brush Up race.

2) Closers do not have an equal numerical chance of winning on the Hawthorne track or any other track. They always need some pace pressure up front to soften up the speed horses, generally good pace pressure. There's a reason a horse like Stratematic has way more places than wins, because that's what closer horses do, clunk up for 2nd and 3rd. Conversely, front running horses always have an advantage, at Hawthorne or any track, by virtue of the simple fact they are in front and the other horses have to catch them. You can't look at the charts and say, "There weren't equal numbers of both, so there must be a bias."  Most winners at any dirt track are going to come from horses that were near the front at the 1/2 mile pole. I think we even posted a universal impact value for this phenomenon last go 'round on this subject.

3) If deep closers are winning in equal numbers to near-front runners you have a bias - a closer bias.
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edwarren
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« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2006, 03:24:48 PM »

man, I could not agree with you more. This has been played to DEATH. Can Janine put a tombstone icon on the board to kill this thing. Call the Priest! Put a stake in it! It's the thing that won't die!


If horses are racing times they usually don't meet, and especially those horses on or near the lead but not excluding closers, I think you might be able to say there is a speed bias, all things being equal. Strictly for number crunchers.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2006, 04:02:34 PM »

man, I could not agree with you more. This has been played to DEATH. Can Janine put a tombstone icon on the board to kill this thing. Call the Priest! Put a stake in it! It's the thing that won't die!


If horses are racing times they usually don't meet, and especially those horses on or near the lead but not excluding closers, I think you might be able to say there is a speed bias, all things being equal. Strictly for number crunchers.



OK it's dead.....
« Last Edit: February 26, 2006, 04:05:42 PM by BeauNarro » Report to moderator   Logged
edwarren
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« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2006, 04:30:55 PM »

Ha. ha.

My idea, I hope and pray, is for a shallow grave. Despite priest's best intentions, I'll need saving by the Ghost Whisperer before I cross over.



http://www.bartcop.com/jennifer-love-hewitt-***.jpg
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2006, 04:45:44 PM »

Sorry to dig up the grave, but this comes from DAK's Diary on Janine's link:

>>>For the second consecutive day, horses with natural speed had an advantage at Hawthorne, and the rail was once again the place to be. Six of the nine winners wired or pressed their way to victory.

Often times when jockeys recognize that their may be a bias, they will push a little harder to gain early position. When this happens, the early pace is accelerated, and horses have a better chance to wield their power down the stretch. Trainer Tom Tomillo, who popped with 20-1 shot Red River Aggie on Friday, also bagged two nice-priced winners on Saturday, winning the seventh race with Iron Rouge at 10-1 and the eighth event with Brush Up at 12-1. <<<

I guess it is what your definition of a bias is that determines if there is one.  On Saturday, I picked out a 9 to 1 horse at Hawthorne that I would never have bet on with a fair track.  This horse was a speed horse with a jockey who knew how to get him to the front and the rest was history.

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edwarren
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« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2006, 05:05:09 PM »

I don't know what this guy is reporting. Brush Up lacked early speed and closed off the rail. Peace and Joy at 6-1, broke on top, then showed speed and puked. The CHALK, even, broke well, raced between horses and puked.

Return to the JLH link above. Kill this thing. Die. Die. Almighty God destroy this spawn of Asmodeous, this Lord of Flies, this THING!!!!!!!!!! Glorious Mother, Call a priest!!!!


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=HAW&date=2006-02-25&enc=4E495934221219190F1E79654B44B2B9F4E68BDAC657254C7551B197F4D6#R8
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2006, 05:34:16 PM »

There's no speed bias....only 7 out of 9 won on the front end today. Three day total 19 front runners/pressers..8 closer/pressers. It's only an anomaly-tommorrow the middle packers and deep closers will prevail!! YEAH RIGHT!
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2006, 06:28:57 PM »

There's no speed bias....only 7 out of 9 won on the front end today. Three day total 19 front runners/pressers..8 closer/pressers. It's only an anomaly-tommorrow the middle packers and deep closers will prevail!! YEAH RIGHT!

If you "know" this is happening and truly believe it, why don't you just take it to the bank? I never heard so much kvetching about a phenomenon that should theoretically allow handicappers to throw out 3/4 of every field with impunity.

Oh ... wait. What's that? It's the difficulty of figuring out the RIGHT speed horse? Geez louise what do they want next.

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BeauNarro
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« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2006, 06:58:53 PM »

If you "know" this is happening and truly believe it, why don't you just take it to the bank? I never heard so much kvetching about a phenomenon that should theoretically allow handicappers to throw out 3/4 of every field with impunity.

Oh ... wait. What's that? It's the difficulty of figuring out the RIGHT speed horse? Geez louise what do they want next.



Hehehe...Terry, I haven't bet a penny yet. I have watched every race at home though. I'm waiting to bet when our own horses run-hopefully by next weekend.
I agree with you though on picking the right speed horse, but usually a few jockeys who knows the track quirks also know to gets the closers out fast and screw that theory all to hell. LOL
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« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2006, 07:04:45 PM »

Beau, why don't you go to the track and bet - instead of complaining that not enough people are there and not betting enough and worry about your purses being cut. You've already proclaimed you beat the game what 14 out of 16 years you say - take the rubber band off the roll and start firing, just bet the speed horse - assume it will be a 1 furlong race and bet accordingly - sounds like you got it all figured out.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2006, 07:12:47 PM »

Hehehe...Terry, I haven't bet a penny yet. I have watched every race at home though. I'm waiting to bet when our own horses run-hopefully by next weekend.
I agree with you though on picking the right speed horse, but usually a few jockeys who knows the track quirks also know to gets the closers out fast and screw that theory all to hell. LOL

Okay, understand your position a little better. Not saying this is you, but if I had a horse that wasn't blessed with natural early speed, and I saw what I thought was a speed bias at a track, I might kvetch a little, too. With that said, I'm sticking to my opinion the track was fair on Friday and Saturday and the results could easily be explained by plain old pace handicapping, but today maybe was a little speedy. Today the closers you'd expect to clunk up for 2nd and 3rd weren't having an easy time of it.


« Last Edit: February 26, 2006, 07:21:22 PM by CLOCKERTERRY » Report to moderator   Logged
BeauNarro
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2006, 07:19:55 PM »

Beau, why don't you go to the track and bet - instead of complaining that not enough people are there and not betting enough and worry about your purses being cut. You've already proclaimed you beat the game what 14 out of 16 years you say - take the rubber band off the roll and start firing, just bet the speed horse - assume it will be a 1 furlong race and bet accordingly - sounds like you got it all figured out.

David,
What are you my resident stalker? Once I start going I'll bet alot more than you probably do. Go chase after someone elses posts.
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2006, 07:33:56 PM »

Beau, you can talk the talk, but it doesn't seem like you walk the walk, you can come on here claiming you know all the answers - lecture the trackmen on how to grade the track,, proclaim how you beat everyone at the windows, imagine track biases when you just magically discovered that the horses near the front have a better chance of winning a race than those who are behind. Yet, you don't bet a "single penny" on the opening weekend card - then wonder why the handle is down - I just find it peculiar. If you don't want you b.s. questioned, don't post it on a public forum.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2006, 07:47:04 PM »

Why would I have to bet to prove anything?
You sound like a jealous female. Are you a girl in disguise using a mans' name?
We (our stable) have injected more this year already into the Illinois horse racing industry than you will bet in years.
Two others entered statements regarding the track crew. I only commented that it sounds like they're trying to make improvements, but you my resident stalker wants to twist it around.
I also stated that for the last 1-1/2 years I don't bet like I did in the past. I only bet on the days when my horses run. Let's see-last year we started 61 times. I bet about $500 on each race(and usually the next race before leaving) so that computes to-hmmmm-30k plus? Not to mention claiming 145k worth of race horses and privately buying another 90k that helps to increase the fields in our own small way. And you're gonna DIS me? Go screw yerself.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2006, 07:52:33 PM by BeauNarro » Report to moderator   Logged
edwarren
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« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2006, 10:26:03 PM »

There's no speed bias....only 7 out of 9 won on the front end today. Three day total 19 front runners/pressers..8 closer/pressers. It's only an anomaly-tommorrow the middle packers and deep closers will prevail!! YEAH RIGHT!

Man, I don't know. 19-8 (70%) seems about right to me. Horses in front win more often because they are on or near the lead...

I promise and I could prove that 7/9 (78%) is not SO unusual. It can happen from time to time, anywhere. Now if you said 14/14 or 17/17, I'd say that's unusual.

One handicapper i respect is the guy who caps for the Bloodstock Journel. i don't know his name but I have NEVER read him mentioning a speed bias at any track he's handicapped much less base his handicapping on biases.

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Irwin Fletcher
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2006, 10:55:53 PM »

These "speed bias" guys have read too many Andrew Beyer books.
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