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Author Topic: Contest: Claiming Crown  (Read 4431 times)
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #25 on: July 26, 2009, 11:53:15 AM »

Some valid points here regarding tougher circuits and jockeys, but both of those horse paid like the outsiders they were. Payoffs were no doubt diluted by the presence of Baze, don't you think?

Maybe that's because he figured to get more out of these horses, in relation to today's competition, than mere "numbers" might indicate? At any rate, Boy Blue was 6-1 m/l and Frisco Fox 10-1, so they went off at just about what the linemaker expected.
 
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Ah, yes -- the "I-own-horses-so-I-automatically-know-more-than-you-argument".

About what happens to horses in races, anyone who actually has the experience knows more than someone who doesn't, yes.

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Please, spare me. The owners of Thoro-Graph not only own horses blah blah

Please, spare me, everyone already knows this. The whole world cannot help but know, for their acolytes' constant spew about it.

Their expertise still does not translate to you and your personal read of the Sheets for a given race, nor does it validate some of the shaky assumptions that go into creating speed numbers.

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"Space Alien Society?" You have no idea how way off you are. You might as well be talking out of your ass.

Anyone who believes speed numbers are anything more than a general signpost to how a race MIGHT go, or that the numbers "prove" anything after the fact other than one horse finished in front of another, is no more than a believer in space aliens. There are too many unknowns that can affect a race.

You didn't answer me as to whether or not the Sheets accurately predicted that six horse stumble. What did they say would be the outcome if that was to happen? Which horses would then "figure"?

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the TG guys are the ones I am getting the info from on (among other things) drug testing, differences in same by circuit,

Uh huh. Did they say if these Mason horses had been subject to the full battery of tests in California, and whether or not Minnesota used their enhanced suite of testing for the Claiming Crown races? Or are you simply postulating from the general to the specific on your own to support your own unfounded assertions about an outcome you do not understand? I'm curious especially how you came up with the quite specific "race day clenbuterol".

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Thanks, but I think I'll stick with the "Space Aliens", who are transacting in millions of dollars of horseflesh all over the world

I'm sure they appreciate your blind and unswerving confidence in them, as your continued business with them depends on it. However, no matter how extensive their experience or expertise, it still does not translate to your own ability to read the tea leaves or entrails or chicken bones or whatever, before, or after the races.

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over the knowledge of a guy who has owned part of a few VOP platers.

Your "expertise" is quite uninformed about the extent of my ownership of horses over the years, but that's to be expected. However, if I had owned only one race horse ever, it's more than you, giving me a world of understanding you simply do not have. The start of that is "numbers are not the be all and end all'.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #26 on: July 26, 2009, 12:08:28 PM »

True enough, but Frisco Fox was running 10's coming in to yesterday's race, with absolutely no hints of improvement, or reason to believe one was coming...yet was somehow able to run what I believe will come back in the 4 - 5 range. That's a jump up -- I don't care who stumbled at the start.

Frisco Fox had the easiest of races, simply laying back behind the one E horse left in contention, that Compton was apparently unable to slow down, ended up running a raw finish time very comparable to her raw finish times out west, and was pretty much the slowest 6f time all day. If it comes back 4 - 5 there's something wrong with the process of projecting numbers.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #27 on: July 26, 2009, 12:38:22 PM »

the TG guys are the ones I am getting the info from on (among other things) drug testing, differences in same by circuit, and how to spot possibly chemically-enhanced performances.

Interestingly enough, when ones reads the Thorograph board, it turns out the various posters over there can't even agree in general on the effects of clenbuterol and the efficacy of various testing procedures, that there are some serious opinions from actual official equine testing personnel that contradict those of Brahmin Jerry, and there's no specific discussion of the Claiming Crown races or Minnesota at all. But you, on your own, have determined that the wins by these Mason horses are no doubt due to a chemical enhancement made possible by a loophole in the tests from California to Minnesota, and that enhancement was most likely race day clenbuterol?
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #28 on: July 26, 2009, 01:03:33 PM »

The Frisco Fox race is an interesting race to watch on replay. The stumbling at the start doesn't look all that bad, but it's obvious Margie Marie definitely got the jump on the other E! horses like Miranda Diane and Met a Miner (predictable from their early pace figs, I guess), leaving those two out of their accustomed positions, with Miranda Diane was nowhere even near the front. (Both horses show as "need the lead" types from their pp's.) Frisco Fox wasn't in the top 3 in the early going. Slight favorite Gatorize was nowhere even in the race. Margie Marie ran what the announcer said was 21.1 and pooped out, leaving horses behind to swoop by, including Frisco Fox and 2nd place finisher Thunder and Belle who looks no better on my pp's than Frisco Fox.

In my expert opinion, Miranda Diane was done in by a bad start, need-the-leader Met a Miner done in by the superior early speed of Margie Marie, Margie Marie done in by her own early factions, and Gatorize done in by being too far back. That takes care of your three favorites and the longshot early leader. Pace and trouble made the race, not "speed numbers".   
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Edwarren
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« Reply #29 on: July 26, 2009, 01:08:06 PM »

Interestingly enough, when ones reads the Thorograph board, it turns out the various posters over there can't even agree in general on the effects of clenbuterol and the efficacy of various testing procedures, that there are some serious opinions from actual official equine testing personnel that contradict those of Brahmin Jerry, and there's no specific discussion of the Claiming Crown races or Minnesota at all. But you, on your own, have determined that the wins by these Mason horses are no doubt due to a chemical enhancement made possible by a loophole in the tests from California to Minnesota, and that enhancement was most likely race day clenbuterol?

I notice when you argue you will try to back someone into a corner by requiring him to provide a consensus of opinion the you feel  establishes their claim to some correctness or truth or validity.  In otherwords, you beg for a consensus.  Usually all it does is waste folks' time, which I suppose is what you're here to do.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #30 on: July 26, 2009, 01:13:13 PM »

I'm sure they appreciate your blind and unswerving confidence in them, as your continued business with them depends on it.

So wrong. They make the bulk of their money in bloodstock / sales consulting. They don't "depend" on the trivial amount of money I spend, or any other horseplayer spends, on their products.

About what happens to horses in races, anyone who actually has the experience knows more than someone who doesn't, yes.

However, if I had owned only one race horse ever, it's more than you, giving me a world of understanding you simply do not have.

LOL! I seem to have struck a nerve: "Why, these scumbag bettors! How could they think they might know as much or more as us owners!"

I love it when a guy claims to have a "world of understanding" I supposedly don't have about horses...but can never make himself available for the many contests we have had here...while I -- in spite of my shaky read of the TG "chicken bones and tea leaves" -- have made several very good showings.

You can talk about your knowledge and understanding all you want. Readers here are intelligent enough to see who talks the talk, and who walks the walk.
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Edwarren
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« Reply #31 on: July 26, 2009, 01:15:36 PM »

The Frisco Fox race is an interesting race to watch on replay. The stumbling at the start doesn't look all that bad, but it's obvious Margie Marie definitely got the jump on the other E! horses like Miranda Diane and Met a Miner (predictable from their early pace figs, I guess), leaving those two out of their accustomed positions, with Miranda Diane was nowhere even near the front. (Both horses show as "need the lead" types from their pp's.) Frisco Fox wasn't in the top 3 in the early going. Slight favorite Gatorize was nowhere even in the race. Margie Marie ran what the announcer said was 21.1 and pooped out, leaving horses behind to swoop by, including Frisco Fox and 2nd place finisher Thunder and Belle who looks no better on my pp's than Frisco Fox.

In my expert opinion, Miranda Diane was done in by a bad start, need-the-leader Met a Miner done in by the superior early speed of Margie Marie, Margie Marie done in by her own early factions, and Gatorize done in by being too far back. That takes care of your three favorites and the longshot early leader. Pace and trouble made the race, not "speed numbers".   

Yep. I saw the chart for that race. Seems like a fair appraisal. I'd like to see PPs for Miranda Diane but don't have em.  Gatorize was bumped but far back. Could be her style. Most seemed far back. Frisco Fox ran a good race.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2009, 01:34:07 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #32 on: July 26, 2009, 02:04:46 PM »

So wrong. They make the bulk of their money in bloodstock / sales consulting. They don't "depend" on the trivial amount of money I spend, or any other horseplayer spends, on their products.

I said they depend on your blind belief for your continued business. I made no claim as to the monetary importance of it. Religions and cults need their believers. "The Sheets", of both varieties, while decent enough handicapping tools, are primarily cults, IMHO.

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LOL! I seem to have struck a nerve: "Why, these scumbag bettors! How could they think they might know as much or more as us owners!"

You are the only one who seems to have had a nerve touched and is getting all excited. What I stated was a simple fact.
 
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I love it when a guy claims to have a "world of understanding" I supposedly don't have about horses...but can never make himself available for the many contests we have had here...

Logical fallacy. A has nothing to do with B. A trainer who never bets a thing or was anywhere near a contest would also have a world of understanding you do not.

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while I -- in spite of my shaky read of the TG "chicken bones and tea leaves" -- have made several very good showings.

Congratulations. Little or nothing to do with clenbuterol or what happens to horses in races that leads to that day's performance, however.

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You can talk about your knowledge and understanding all you want. Readers here are intelligent enough to see who talks the talk, and who walks the walk.

Indeed. Readers can also recognize the hypocrisy in constantly belittling others' talk of the effect of drugs in horse racing, and who might be doing it, for lack of concrete evidence, while unhesitatingly styling trainer Mason a cheat and ascribing these particular performances you do not understand to drugs, not to mention going as far as to name a specific drug the trainer must have used. That IS the subject here, not my horse ownership or contest participation or anything else you are scrambling your best to make an alternate subject.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #33 on: July 26, 2009, 02:50:47 PM »

Yep. I saw the chart for that race. Seems like a fair appraisal. I'd like to see PPs for Miranda Diane but don't have em.  Gatorize was bumped but far back. Could be her style. Most seemed far back. Frisco Fox ran a good race.

Gatorize normally runs from behind, but not dead last by so many lengths. The only race she won all year is a 7500 starter allowance, and that's the only outstanding recent speed number (BRIS) she has, too. This type normally needs a pretty strong speed duel with a number of horses tiring to win their race.

Miranda Diane has been pretty much an all out need the lead speed horse, with the exception of back races with a different trainer. I'm rather surprised HV hasn't mentioned the remarkable improvement this one made after its claim on the 9th of March. Of course, those big numbers came at the prestigious Will Rogers Downs. Looks to me (in retrospect, of course) like she was just about due for a serious number regression, especially against horses with any class from a tougher circuit.  So chalk that one up as a possibility, too. 

Met a Miner's last few races weren't all that much faster than Frisco Fox's according to these pp's here, and of course those came in Delaware (where they don't test at all) and Maryland (where testing is spotty and incomplete) so - by the standards that seem to apply to this discussion - maybe she suffered from the lack of her accustomed juice by going to a venue where testing was going to be tougher.  Roll Eyes 

 
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #34 on: July 26, 2009, 03:39:01 PM »


Also, you are likely familiar with the phenomena of suck-along types in harness races routinely run eye-popping final times that are meaningless, because they can't replicate that time in a winning performance -- that probably best describes the Eikleberry horse. In any case, a 3rd place finish isn't really part of the issue here.

Eikleberry's horse was very slow coming in and she beat many who were faster than her going into the race, so whats to say she wasn't "juiced" to run her big race, afterall,  we know Mason gave his horse the magic oats  Wink
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #35 on: July 26, 2009, 03:51:37 PM »

I took another look at the race, and My Boy Blue clearly had the slowest figs coming in. He had the highest lifetime top (6) when everyone else was a 3 or 4, with the second place finished logging a zero once. His "effective" number range (what he has been running lately), was ~8, about 4-5 points slower than every other horse but one.


With My Boy Blue I see a horse who has a TG Sire index that clearly favors dirt over artificial surface.
He ran a top as a 3yo on the dirt that was a 6. He came out this year and ran a pair of 8's and then a 6 on the artificial surface.So he just paired his top while running on a surface that isn't his best and now moves to his preferred surface.For me this is a horse in peak form coming from a good barn that is winning at 22% over the last 90 days.

The chalks looks bad to me.The horse ran a 0 in the slop followed by a 3.75.They gave the horse a short breather and it responded with an even worse race a 7. Not something I want to bet.

Other horses include a horse coming off a 7 at PEN, a horse who has run 3 consecutive 4's at CBY, a horse coming off a pair of 3's at LS but for an ice cold barn, and 2 horses from PID one of which looked dangerous.

So I have a horse running one of his best races, on not his preferred surface and now moving to his preferred surface and numerically only being about 2 lengths slower than others. It had to be the juice  Grin
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #36 on: July 26, 2009, 03:51:57 PM »

Eikleberry's horse was very slow coming in and she beat many who were faster than her going into the race, so whats to say she wasn't "juiced" to run her big race, afterall,  we know Mason gave his horse the magic oats  Wink

Now now, not magic oats, "special sauce".

IMHO, it's a race that just fell apart, didn't run the way it looked like it might on paper, and produced an unexpected result. Hey - if it hadn't been for Mason's horse, the equally puzzling Thunder and Belle would have beat all those other superior number horses.

I'm curious - What kind of a reputation does Mason have in California? I've never heard his name mentioned in the same company as the usual cast of suspected "juicers". What's his record with the CHRB on violations? (Admitting I don't follow Cal racing at all esp. not No Cal.)
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #37 on: July 26, 2009, 04:16:57 PM »

He may have some positives but I don't remember any.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #38 on: July 26, 2009, 04:57:56 PM »

With My Boy Blue I see a horse

What's really interesting - in retrospect - about this horse is the fact that he was claimed in March for the $16,000 tag that this race conditions required, after a 20 race career as a higher level claimer/allowance/minor stakes horse, and then was obviously intentionally trained up to this very race, with 11 evenly spaced workouts in the meantime but no actual race. Well meant horse, I would say.

As our good friend Boxcar would say, you can't measure "trainer intentions" with the Blessed Sheets.
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BeauNarro
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Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.....


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« Reply #39 on: July 26, 2009, 05:28:04 PM »

Order of finish in the contest:

#1 BeauNarro $25.40
#2 LustyTarHeal 24.40
#3 ChiTownSteve 19.60
#4 Mel 17.80
#5 HorseVoice 14.80

we ALL stunk!! But I won...NANA NA NA NAAAAAAA!!!
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #40 on: July 26, 2009, 05:48:35 PM »

What's really interesting - in retrospect - about this horse is the fact that he was claimed in March for the $16,000 tag that this race conditions required, after a 20 race career as a higher level claimer/allowance/minor stakes horse, and then was obviously intentionally trained up to this very race, with 11 evenly spaced workouts in the meantime but no actual race. Well meant horse, I would say.

As our good friend Boxcar would say, you can't measure "trainer intentions" with the Blessed Sheets.

I didn't look at the PPs until just now after you mentioned it but you're right, this definitely fits the bill of a well-meant/intentioned horse.  Fresh and fit plus  moving to his preferred surface.....KUDOS to the Mason clan.
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mel4600
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« Reply #41 on: July 26, 2009, 07:47:52 PM »

Order of finish in the contest:

#1 BeauNarro $25.40
#2 LustyTarHeal 24.40
#3 ChiTownSteve 19.60
#4 Mel 17.80
#5 HorseVoice 14.80

we ALL stunk!! But I won...NANA NA NA NAAAAAAA!!!


 bowing bowing bowing bowing bowing bowing
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BeauNarro
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Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.....


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« Reply #42 on: July 26, 2009, 08:02:24 PM »

TY..TYVM
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #43 on: July 26, 2009, 11:06:48 PM »

Order of finish in the contest:

#1 BeauNarro $25.40
#2 LustyTarHeal 24.40
#3 ChiTownSteve 19.60
#4 Mel 17.80
#5 HorseVoice 14.80

we ALL stunk!! But I won...NANA NA NA NAAAAAAA!!!


Congratulations!

Sorry to help take the topic so far off what should be your triumphant moment.
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Lusty Tar Heel
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« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2009, 12:11:39 PM »


   Doesnt look like any of us will be winning a trip to Vegas anytime soon  Bomb
  Congrats Beau
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #45 on: July 28, 2009, 11:49:41 AM »

Well, we have one answer:

Frisco Fox received an 82 Beyer, somewhat less than her lifetime best of 86.

Still waiting on the other.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #46 on: July 28, 2009, 01:51:43 PM »

Well, we have one answer:

Frisco Fox received an 82 Beyer, somewhat less than her lifetime best of 86.

Still waiting on the other.

Pretty sure on an 85 for You're My Boy Blue. Make of that what you will.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #47 on: July 28, 2009, 01:57:13 PM »

Pretty sure on an 85 for You're My Boy Blue. Make of that what you will.

I don't have the lifetime DRF pp's on that one. Does 85 constitute a "lifetime best", and if so, by how many points?
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2009, 02:16:24 PM »

I don't have the lifetime DRF pp's on that one. Does 85 constitute a "lifetime best", and if so, by how many points?

His 10-2-3-4 career fast dirt record includes his highest ever Beyer figure, a 95, earned last August at the Bay Meadows Fair.

His "comfort" zone for Beyer numbers on all surfaces seems to be somewhere around 80. Based on his dirt form and past runs, an 85 isn't totally out of line with what he's capable of.
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brianwspencer
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« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2009, 02:32:56 PM »

Well, we have one answer:

Frisco Fox received an 82 Beyer, somewhat less than her lifetime best of 86.

Still waiting on the other.

Also considerably higher than her recent tries.

But with that said, the three dirt races on her page were 74, 78, and 78 - three of the four highest numbers in her last 12 starts.

Not the biggest Beyer believer either -- but the numbers don't seem out of line, and there were obviously additional compounding circumstances in the Frisco Fox race that effectively void any speed figure-based argument about what should or should not have happened.
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