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Author Topic: Arlington  (Read 838 times)
pamwaggy
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« on: June 14, 2009, 08:59:55 PM »

What goes on there?  The odds flip around too much.  And also in the middle of the race.  Something looks goofy.
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General Powell
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2009, 07:43:26 AM »

Pam

Arlington, ( as does Hawthorne) accepts wagers up till the time the gates open. Therefore, there is a period of time (between 15 to 35 seconds) after the gate opens, that the OTB's and tracks and ADW's around the country and some overseas areas are transmitting final wagers to the host pool (AP). Once received the odds are recalculated and posted on the boards and TV Monitors.  There are other tracks that keep their pools open as late as the Illinois tracks do, and their odds also change early in the race.  The IRB requires both tracks to publish this information in their track programs.

Hopefully this will satisfy your concerns.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2009, 08:36:40 AM »

I watched the pools at AP last weekend when I went to the OTB. More than half the money in the WPS pools showed up after 0 mtp. Additionally, the win odds on various horses would change dramatically when that last big push of money came in.

That's not necessarily unique to AP, though. It happens too much at every track these days. Dramatically shifting odds (after all us chumps actually AT the track, with a walk and a window to deal with, made our bets) is one of the things that makes racing less enjoyable than it used to be. It's become a stay-at-home play-on-your-computer get-bets-in-at-the-last-second game to try and get odds, and a forget-everything-you-learned-about-overlays-just-bet-and-hope game on track. And tracks moan about the decline in on track handle. Hey, if you make it more advantageous to stay away, what do you expect? doh (And of course, to that disincentive, we can add admissions, surcharges, lack of rebates, etc. "Please, don't come to our track and dirty things up! Stay at home!")   

If you watch the exacta will-pays (or doubles, or triples), you can generally get a better idea of what the actual win odds will end up being. For some reason exacta money seems to flow in a more even rate, and it's only the win odds getting severely dumped at the last second. I think some of the big computer players do it on purpose to try and manipulate the board and other players looking for "value". 
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nmslim
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2009, 09:37:44 AM »

Maybe wagers will have to be shut off before the gate opens.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2009, 10:38:50 AM »

For some reason exacta money seems to flow in a more even rate, and it's only the win odds getting severely dumped at the last second. I think some of the big computer players do it on purpose to try and manipulate the board and other players looking for "value". 

I don't think it's sinister in nature -- I just think someone (or multiple players) have come up with some mathematical correlation between the exacta pool and the straight pool (and perhaps, the so-called "fair value" of each horse), and when they (or their arbitrage programs) come up with an inefficiency in one of the straight pools, they suck the juice (overlay) right out of it.

Happened to me yesterday in the show pool in the Indian Blessing race -- the late money came in in *way* different proportions than it had been the during the earlier portion of the betting period, and screwed up my percentages. I should have made a healthy profit with my show hedge when IB ran off the board -- when they loaded the gate, the rest of the field was averaging about 60-1 each in the show pool ($120 for a $2 show bet), so I made my play based on those numbers. When I saw the final flash (and also that IB wasn't going to make it), I just about shit myself -- everybody else was 25-1 or less in the show pool! So I got hosed, and good. 

A rule I use for contests -- for the kind where I don't have to put my plays in ahead of time -- is to not bother with anything less than 6-1: too many of these leave the gate at 5-1, make the top at 4-1, and cross the wire at 3-1. If find that if I stay with horses that are 6-1 or more, I'm much less likely to get nailed by the dreaded "late money hit". I have *absolutely* no explanation for this, but it works for me, so I don't care why.
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jrstark
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2009, 10:50:41 AM »

Show money has way more swing than win money.  I haven't been watching the pools as closely recently, but it used to be that half the win money came in the last minute.  At that time, the show pool would triple.  Changing the size of the pool that much plays havoc with the odds.
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Fiddler
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2009, 02:01:50 PM »

Don't forget that ADW's, Bris/Twin Spires for example, offer conditional wagering.  Meaning you can enter a win bet; 500 to win on the 3 at 7-2 or better; and if at a specified time before the race, lets say a minute, if the 3 is 4-1, your 500 bet becomes active and gets swept into the pool.

A few large wagers, placed conditionally, can greatly affect the late odds.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2009, 02:14:56 PM »

Show money has way more swing than win money.  I haven't been watching the pools as closely recently, but it used to be that half the win money came in the last minute.  At that time, the show pool would triple.  Changing the size of the pool that much plays havoc with the odds.


Well, believe me, I was watching this particular pool size very carefully, because my show hedge doesn't work unless the bridgejumper horse has a very high percentage of the overall pool.

When I put my bet in, there was ~$476K in the show pool, and it closed at ~$522K...but of the $46K that came in at the end, only 56% of it ($20K) was for Indian Blessing, creating a far different mix than when I made my bet and Indian Blessing had over 97% of the total pool.
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jrstark
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2009, 02:22:43 PM »

How much did the bridgejumper bet?

When I said it tripled in the last minute, those were regular pools, not one with a bridgejumper.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2009, 02:39:13 PM »

How much did the bridgejumper bet?

I don't know. I wasn't monitoring it from the very beginning. I'll just offer an educated guess and say that maybe $400K was bridgejumper money, and possibly as much as $450K.

Part of the problem is that I'm not the only "smart guy" on the block looking for free money, and if there are 5 or 6 other people out there doing the same things as me when we find these show pool bonanzas, we are likely killing off each other's overlay.

In one of his books, Barry Meadow mentions that he used to shop the place and show pools at his local harness track, and bang on the obvious overlays. After awhile, he noticed that no matter how close to the bell he bet, the overlays would "disappear", and he was getting less than fair value on his bets instead of more. After sniffing around a bit and tipping tellers for info, he finally found the other guy, and they came to a gentlemen's agreement: one would take the place pool, the other would take the show pool. Charming, eh?
« Last Edit: June 15, 2009, 02:44:33 PM by Horse Voice » Report to moderator   Logged
our favorite omen
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2009, 05:26:16 PM »

Nefarious collusion, what a surprise.  The mutual clerks have always been suspect in this regard.
OFO
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2009, 06:55:24 PM »

I thank you all for your answers.   All very good and interesting posts!

One friend I have at our OTB watches the money constantly.  He only bets a few races a day.  He thinks there is some manipulating going on at Arlington.  He won't bet that track anymore at all.  He knows I am a long shot bettor like he is, so he had me watching with him.  I didn't like what I saw.

I did a bet to show ALL on that Indian Blessing race.  And I'm not a show bettor. 

Speaking of all, ALL of your posts were so interesting, and so thoughtful, I am printing them out for a few friends.  Thank you all so much.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2009, 07:25:59 PM »

I don't think it's sinister in nature -- I just think someone (or multiple players) have come up with some mathematical correlation between the exacta pool and the straight pool (and perhaps, the so-called "fair value" of each horse), and when they (or their arbitrage programs) come up with an inefficiency in one of the straight pools, they suck the juice (overlay) right out of it.

It probably isn't, I was just seeing if I could get a rise out of one of the huggers.

However, the phenomenon of the various will-pays being a much better indicator of final win odds than the win odds on the board, at least until just about post time, is real.
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