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Author Topic: Saturday: Belmont Stakes field  (Read 2467 times)
The_Knight_Sky
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« on: June 03, 2009, 07:20:15 PM »

Belmont Park 11th (6:27) Belmont S. (G1)

1 1/2 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000




1   Chocolate Candy   Gomez G K   126         L
2   Dunkirk   Velazquez J R   126         L
3   Mr. Hot Stuff   Prado E S   126         L
4   Summer Bird   Desormeaux K J   126      Blk-On   L
5   Luv Gov   Mena M   126         L
6   Charitable Man   Garcia Alan   126         L
7   Mine That Bird   Borel C H   126         L
8   Flying Private   Leparoux J R   126         L
9   Miner's Escape   Lezcano J   126         L
10   Brave Victory   Maragh R   126         L
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2009, 07:32:14 PM »

Anyone have a guess yet?
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The_Knight_Sky
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2009, 07:54:31 PM »

All I know is that Miner's Escape and Charitable Man are going to lead the procession
on the backstretch like a bride and groom at a wedding.   Very lackadaisically.

If any of the other guests want a slice of the cake they'll have to be dressed
sharp as a tack.  I think the winner will come from the second flight but it's
anyone's guess which horses will comprise that group.  But I will be keying
Charitable Man in my exactas as he's very tractable and gets the third race
of the form cycle.

Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk should both get a ground saving trip on the first turn
And they're the ones to bolster the exotics.  Mine That Bird may or may not
have the dubious benefits of his "high altitude training" left in his lungs. 

A very interesting race this is.  Hope Barn to Wire members will join our growing group
 for a free cyberdollar contest on the Belmont Stakes.  This means you Dan.  crossedfingers
« Last Edit: June 03, 2009, 07:58:51 PM by The_Knight_Sky » Report to moderator   Logged

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The_Knight_Sky
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2009, 07:55:53 PM »

. doh
« Last Edit: June 03, 2009, 07:57:53 PM by The_Knight_Sky » Report to moderator   Logged

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« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2009, 07:55:47 AM »

I don't know who I like yet, but I can tell you I will not have my money to win on the Bird near even money.  Could be a nice favorite to bet against for alot of reasons, problem is the rest of the field doesn't look so hot either!
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2009, 08:33:30 AM »

...problem is the rest of the field doesn't look so hot either!

Take a long look at Summer Bird.

He has the breeding, he's getting blinks and a positive jock switch, and he got some time off after a modest run in the Derby. On Thoro-Graph, he's only 1-2 lengths behind Charitable Man and Dunkirk, the two fastest horses coming in, and he has a nice, evenly spaced pattern, indicating a healthy but not yet overraced young colt. He might be sitting on a giant effort.

I expect him to be closer to the pace in the Belmont. Nice value play if he's anywhere near his ML 12-1.
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ChitownSteve75
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« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2009, 08:56:21 AM »

HV. I'm with you on Summer Bird. I have to go with value in this race. Dunkirk was my original play but at less than 4-1? I don't know. How many times have we seen a Bomber win this race.....horses just don't go 1 1/2 miles anymore. Summer Bird, Flying Private, Candy.....I'll have to do some more research. I'm throwing the Derby winner out. If he wins, he wins.
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ZENYATTA THE GREAT! NOT RA!
Earl Sande
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« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2009, 09:21:50 AM »

Summer Bird will be the classic run-up-the-track in the Derby skip the Preakness flop.
Better pick the other bird.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2009, 09:56:17 AM »

Summer Bird will be the classic run-up-the-track in the Derby skip the Preakness flop.

Oh yeah -- just like Birdstone: ran 8th, some 15 lengths behind winner Smarty Jones, skipped the Preakness, and "flopped"...uh oh...er, WON the Belmont. Classic.

Better stick to the $3200 claimers at Fairmount, Earl. We're discussing racehorses, not plow animals.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2009, 01:32:24 PM »

Oh yeah -- just like Birdstone: ran 8th, some 15 lengths behind winner Smarty Jones, skipped the Preakness, and "flopped"...uh oh...er, WON the Belmont. Classic.

Better stick to the $3200 claimers at Fairmount, Earl. We're discussing racehorses, not plow animals.

I can name some other horses who tried the same thing and it didn't work, but I won't take your time up jackoff. Go back to your program and study the polytrack races.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2009, 02:17:38 PM »

I can name some other horses who tried the same thing and it didn't work, but I won't take your time up jackoff.

LOL! Nothing like having your balls busted about Fairmount, eh?

*Of course* you can find other horses that tried the same thing and it didn't work, because you get about 10-12 chances every year of a horse a) running poorly in the Derby, b) skipping the Preakness, and then c) running up the track in the Belmont.

Meanwhile, only one horse per year can do a) and b), and also WIN the Belmont. Think about it.

 
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ChrissyTina
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2009, 03:27:17 PM »

Hey I was going to pick SUMMER BIRD because I didn't think anybody else was going too. I get on here and see a lot of you like him too. I thought this horse looked good back in the KY Derby. On Lady Luck last night on TVG he looked pretty good too. I think its about time for this bird to spread his wings and win a race!
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"Never let a win get to your head, or a loss to your heart."
Edwarren
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2009, 03:50:13 PM »

Little Birdstoen was a 2 yo champion.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2009, 03:54:06 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
Edwarren
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2009, 04:48:55 PM »

http://www.belmont-stakes.info/2006%20belmont.php

I guess it would KILL the web designer to drop the weight statistic and replace it with the horses odds.   doh   I suppose that's too much to ask for.  Joe Bettor might not be able to handle it and fry out his peanut-brain.  screwy
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The Commander
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« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2009, 06:39:35 PM »

I'm pretty confident that Dunkirk wins.
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mel4600
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2009, 06:42:09 PM »

If you want to cash a winning ticket, bet MINE THAT BIRD!! You will get 3-1!

Anything else is throwing your money away! Mine That Bird by 8 lenghts!!!
« Last Edit: June 04, 2009, 06:47:56 PM by mel4600 » Report to moderator   Logged
Edwarren
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2009, 08:06:58 PM »

If you want to cash a winning ticket, bet MINE THAT BIRD!! You will get 3-1!

Anything else is throwing your money away! Mine That Bird by 8 lenghts!!!

Love Mein Bird. Mein Buuurd.   Reminds me of the movie "Family Plot" very funny movie (with the Harris woman actor who hailed from Evanston IL.)The movie was taken form the book "The Rainbird Connection" by Victor Canning. Ms. Harris and Bruce Dern are in it. Too bad B Dern didn't care for members of the tribe though he is still one of my favorite actors. Anyway, Ms. HArris her actual first name is Barbara, Barbara Harris, works as a  psychic (its a scam) for rich guilt-ridden Mrs. Julia Rainbird  and she slips into the character of a person possessed by an all-knowing all-seeing man from the other side. (Mrs Rainbird is searching for a long lost heir, lost since a small boy.) Ms. Harris voice deepens like a mans and you hear her soothsaying "Julia, julia RAINBIRD" in a very low drawn out moan with a soft R, like rainbuuuurrd during their sessions.  Very funny Hitchcock movie. It was I think Hitch's last movie.

Right  Harris charcters name is Blanche Tyler. "Madame Blanche" as she is known to her clients. Very funny movie.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2009, 12:06:54 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
The_Knight_Sky
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2009, 11:55:25 AM »


I'm pretty confident that Dunkirk wins.



Well he's going to need Mr. Zito to 'send' Miner's Escape the way he did with Da Tara.

And Charitable Man is going to have to be placed too close to the pacesetter,
for Dunkirk to make that move on the final turn that we know he's capable of.

A very interesting race coming up on what will be a "drying out" track.
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2009, 07:14:00 AM »

Take a long look at Summer Bird.

He has the breeding, he's getting blinks and a positive jock switch, and he got some time off after a modest run in the Derby. On Thoro-Graph, he's only 1-2 lengths behind Charitable Man and Dunkirk, the two fastest horses coming in, and he has a nice, evenly spaced pattern, indicating a healthy but not yet overraced young colt. He might be sitting on a giant effort.

I expect him to be closer to the pace in the Belmont. Nice value play if he's anywhere near his ML 12-1.

He won't be near 12-1. I'm not sure adding the hood for a 12-furlong race is a good idea, when you want your horse calm and relaxed. And I'm not sure the jock switch is positive, given Kent's history of blowing the Belmont, not persevering on his mount when it becomes apparent that he won't win, and moving too early (happened in several triple crown preps this year, as well as in past Belmonts).

As far as fastest horses, Mine That Bird's Derby was as fast as anything Dunkirk or Charitable Man have done, and the Preakness was just behind (and still faster than anything Summer Bird has run).

That said, I do like the horse's pattern, the breeding, the fact that he's lightly raced with plenty of upside, and Kent can sometimes pilot an excellent race (only when I don't have his horse in my wagers). So I'm not sure what to do. I'm leaving Dunkirk out of all exotics (so we toss a 4-1, but I've still got a ways to go to garner some kind of edge). I'd hate to toss Summer bird and Charitable Man and have them come in, so I might attack it thusly: Mine That Bird on top of a couple longshots in exactors, and the hedge of Mine That Bird with Charitable Man and Summer Bird with my longshots in third for triactors.

The longshots that look interesting to me are Flying Private and Miner's Escape. Brave Victory would be usable if this race were 9-10F instead of 12, so he's a toss. Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy are still questions on fast dirt. Of course, what will happen is I'll make these bets with Flying Private and Miner's Escape, and the OTHER Lukas and Zito horses will run 2nd and 3rd! Haha.

Or, how about this name game: Mine That Bird / Summer Bird / Miner's Escape
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2009, 07:18:30 AM »

I'm pretty confident that Dunkirk wins.

If I had a betfair account I'd be laying this horse (just like I would've laid him in the Derby). In fact, I think he's the biggest underlay in the field given his likely 4-1 odds.
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2009, 07:28:57 PM »

Take a long look at Summer Bird.

He has the breeding, he's getting blinks and a positive jock switch, and he got some time off after a modest run in the Derby. On Thoro-Graph, he's only 1-2 lengths behind Charitable Man and Dunkirk, the two fastest horses coming in, and he has a nice, evenly spaced pattern, indicating a healthy but not yet overraced young colt. He might be sitting on a giant effort.

I expect him to be closer to the pace in the Belmont. Nice value play if he's anywhere near his ML 12-1.

Nice pick HV. I had him to win after this post led me to take a closer look. Way to go.
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2009, 01:33:39 PM »

Hey I was going to pick SUMMER BIRD because I didn't think anybody else was going too. I get on here and see a lot of you like him too. I thought this horse looked good back in the KY Derby. On Lady Luck last night on TVG he looked pretty good too. I think its about time for this bird to spread his wings and win a race!

Whoo Hooo! Summer Bird Wins!  trophy  I know at least three of you liked "the other bird" too. I hope you guys played him. I won big. Placed a $2 even WPS bet on Summer Bird and I gave the trifecta to a friend who called me about 10 minutes before the race while he was in line at the OTB. That dude owes me dinner now.
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