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Author Topic: Look out for Julien LeParoux!!!  (Read 5007 times)
Yimmy
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« Reply #50 on: July 01, 2012, 11:16:12 AM »

You laddies seem to be missing the broader picture.

Leparoux is basically a turf jock, and at the Belmont meet, one factor far more than any others has determined who wins at least the non-claiming turf races.  And that factor has not the slightest thing to do with jockeys.
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HorseVoice*
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« Reply #51 on: July 01, 2012, 11:41:33 AM »

I ask for proof and its a 'bullshit question'. He asks for proof (in the front bandages threads) and suddenly, magically, its NOT a BS question.

Ok.

No comparison. Non sequitur.
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #52 on: July 01, 2012, 11:50:54 AM »

No comparison. Non sequitur.

hungry's standard M.O. = Making some claim while providing zero evidence of its truth, and then asking YOU to provide the evidence that disproves it.

 doh

Besides, the original claim in this case, "UR would have won the Belmont with Julien, to think he wouldnt is foolishness" is something that can never, and will never, be proved one way or the other. I could claim "to think that he would have is foolishness" and be every bit as correct (or wrong) as hungry - but no one will ever know which.
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
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« Reply #53 on: July 01, 2012, 09:19:27 PM »

Turallure was full of run and Leparoux had him blocked!! What terrible ride!!! Thoughts?
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Yimmy
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« Reply #54 on: July 01, 2012, 09:24:43 PM »

Yes.  Read the thread before posting to it. HTH.
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journalstuff
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« Reply #55 on: July 01, 2012, 09:58:03 PM »

now am starting to see why people diss leparoux's riding style. i've never been so upset by a jockey ever!!! it's a disgrace to put him in the same sentence as jockeys john velazquez, javier castallano, ramon dominguez, garrett gomez and rafael bejarano. anyway, this habbit has been going on since union rags got beat in the florida derby.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #56 on: July 01, 2012, 10:07:24 PM »

There are horses involved in the game also.  Talk about missing the forest for the trees...
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #57 on: July 01, 2012, 10:34:23 PM »

There are horses involved in the game also.  Talk about missing the forest for the trees...

Nothing wrong with someone being interested in the human participants. Just look at NASCAR - who talks about the old #7 car?
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
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« Reply #58 on: July 01, 2012, 10:43:33 PM »

Last I looked, cars weren't sentient beings.  Wink
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honest & balanced terry
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« Reply #59 on: July 02, 2012, 01:10:49 AM »

Last I looked, cars weren't sentient beings.  Wink

And what difference does it make, exactly?

Some guys could care less, and see horses merely as big brown blobs running around the track for them to bet on. Some people care most about things like breeding and lineage and hardly ever place a bet. Some care about horses as magnificent athletes. Some just love horses in general and could care less about the people involved. I happen to care most about racetracks as entertainment venues, places in history, and places to watch the weirdest people in the world. j-stuff obviously cares most about the human participants. Who are you or anyone to tell someone else what they should find important or interesting about the sport/industry?
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"There are no $7500 maiden claimers, state-bred or otherwise, at Arlington."
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« Reply #60 on: July 02, 2012, 05:08:14 PM »

By the same token, Terry, I could ask, erm, who are you to tell me I shouldn't?  I think a focus on jocks to the almost total exclusion of everything else in the game misses the boat.  By the same token, there was an an enjoyable and spirited discussion about the Belmont going, and suddenly someone pops in without so much as a segue, with a comment about LepaRouX blowing a ride in the Phineas T. Flithers stakes at Beulah or some such.  Seriously, WTF?

 
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Yimmy
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« Reply #61 on: August 05, 2012, 08:05:05 AM »

The "shell of his former self" is now winning at a 15%+ rate at the Spa and apparently riding first call for Steve Asmussen.  He did not wake up magically transformed one day at the end of the Belmont meet; rather, he's the same jock, but more races are staying on the turf and Asmussen brought a bunch of his out-of-town horses in.
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hungry
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« Reply #62 on: August 05, 2012, 02:40:53 PM »

The "shell of his former self" is now winning at a 15%+ rate at the Spa and apparently riding first call for Steve Asmussen.  He did not wake up magically transformed one day at the end of the Belmont meet; rather, he's the same jock, but more races are staying on the turf and Asmussen brought a bunch of his out-of-town horses in.

He's engaged to a hot chick, maybe his love life has him distracted?
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Yimmy
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« Reply #63 on: August 05, 2012, 03:29:40 PM »

It's all trainers.  If you're riding for Doodnauth Shivmangal and Randi Persaud and Leo O'Brien in the warm months these days, you're gonna look like shit.  As soon as Asmussen shipped in a bunch of stuff from Kentucky and Iowa, Leparoux's stock went up.  Same rider, better mounts.
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hungry
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« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2012, 03:33:01 PM »

It's all trainers.  If you're riding for Doodnauth Shivmangal and Randi Persaud and Leo O'Brien in the warm months these days, you're gonna look like shit.  As soon as Asmussen shipped in a bunch of stuff from Kentucky and Iowa, Leparoux's stock went up.  Same rider, better mounts.

Personally, i like to rate jocks race per race, i like to watch them ride, see how they sit on horses, how they look coming down to the wire, etc. Some jocks are riding with injuries, but can't take time off to heal, so, its important to really gauge how 'well' a jock is riding on a daily basis. There was a thread here about Victor Espinosa being 'toast' and someone in the thread said "hes not toast, look at the stats". My deal is that i dont look at the stats, i just watch the jock on a case by case basis, what a guy did day ago or 1 hour ago means nothing to me....i want to see how he looked 20 minutes ago in his last ride.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #65 on: August 05, 2012, 03:36:02 PM »

Okay, let's examine that.  You've already said Leparoux is over the hill, or some such.  How 'bout Jose Lezcano?
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hungry
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« Reply #66 on: August 05, 2012, 04:25:13 PM »

Okay, let's examine that.  You've already said Leparoux is over the hill, or some such.  How 'bout Jose Lezcano?

Who said he was over the hill?
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journalstuff
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« Reply #67 on: August 05, 2012, 05:21:01 PM »

Who said he was over the hill?

DITTO TO THAT. WHO SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THAT?Huh
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Yimmy
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« Reply #68 on: August 05, 2012, 05:26:23 PM »

He seems to be a shell of his former self. He rode Tahoe Lake today at Belmont in the 4th race, the horse looked outstanding on paper, and besides the winner, this was a horrible field, Leparoux got the horse in all sorts of trouble and finished DFL. If someone can explain to me how Tahoe Lake finished dead last in THAT field, i'd love to hear it.

 head shake
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HarnessFanDE
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« Reply #69 on: August 06, 2012, 01:00:46 PM »

When I watch Leparoux....I think he's a chicken....He steadies way too much and always seems to err on the side of caution.....I do think, bar none, he has the best giddy up and go in the game today in those hands of his....He can really get a horse to sprint fast for an 1/8 mile burst......Nobody I would rather have on my horse if he gets a clean run and gets to pop out the last 1/8
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SHOWTIME!!!
journalstuff
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« Reply #70 on: August 06, 2012, 02:56:18 PM »

He's riding better than when he rode at Belmont. He's doing better than Joel Rosario who appeared to have had a better start than Leparoux and he's starting to get wins every day.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #71 on: August 06, 2012, 04:35:35 PM »

"Personally, i like to rate jocks race per race, i like to watch them ride, see how they sit on horses, how they look coming down to the wire, etc. Some jocks are riding with injuries, but can't take time off to heal, so, its important to really gauge how 'well' a jock is riding on a daily basis..."


I couldn't agree more with all of this...  basically, the first thing to do when handicapping races is to get the DRF or Brisnet, or whatever, and shred the damned thing(s).  Big waste of time to see what the horses did in their recent races, or even what their names are. Next, take the entries, and studiously ignore them... learning the names of the men who train the steeds is an exercise in futility and will only lead to confusion, dissonance, pestilence and famine.

Basically, I like to have a CBC on each jock before every race, a few MRIs and CT scans, and perhaps even an EKG.  The neutrophil count is EXTREMELY important.  Leparoux improved at Saratoga not because Steve Asmussen caught fire and shipped in live horses, but because his own eosinophil count improved (though oddly it dropped just before he rode Federation into a box... went up again right after the race).  Before each race, you should make a careful study of each jock's elbows, and also of the length of their sideburns (ponytails in the case of Rosie and Maylan).   This is demonstrably the way to go.
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« Reply #72 on: August 06, 2012, 11:02:22 PM »

I will be nutreal on this subject and just throw out his 2012 stats:  655 starts with a 18.1 win percentage.  Dirt 241 starts 18.7%, turf 339 17.4%, and aw 85 starts 19.8%.  Dirt sprints 129 starts win % 20.2, dirt routes 112 17%, turf sprints 84 13.1%, turf routes 225 18.8%, aw sprints 20%, aw routes 40 17.5, and wet tracks 62 17.7%.  Those are his win % so hope that helps everyone I believe Julien has earnings of over 8 million over the first 8 months of the year.  Have at it boys.
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Yimmy
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« Reply #73 on: August 07, 2012, 08:42:58 AM »

"Nutreal?"





As Ralph Wiggum famously exclaimed...
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 08:57:42 AM by Yimmy » Report to moderator   Logged
Illinois sucks
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« Reply #74 on: August 07, 2012, 09:00:03 AM »

All these years hiding behind a screen name you finally post a photo of yourself.  So it got past the spell check sue me.  After 70 posts of you guys going back and forth at least I post some numbers.  Not even a thank you but I come to expect that from Yimbo.  Again great picture.
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