Here's the field for the KY Derby

[Moon]

Grade 1, $2 million Kentucky Derby Post   Horse   Trainer   Jockey   Odds
1    West Side Bernie    Kelly Breen    Stewart Elliott   30-1
2    Musket Man    Derek Ryan    Eibar Coa   20-1
3    Mr. Hot Stuff    Eoin Harty    John Velazquez   30-1
4    Advice    Todd Pletcher    Rene Douglas   30-1
5    Hold Me Back    Bill Mott    Kent Desormeaux   15-1
6    Friesan Fire    Larry Jones    Gabriel Saez   5-1
7    Papa Clem    Gary Stute    Rafael Bejarano   20-1
8    Mine That Bird    Bennie Woolley    Calvin Borel   50-1
9    Join in the Dance    Todd Pletcher    Chris DeCarlo   50-1
10    Regal Ransom    Saeed bin Suroor    Alan Garcia   30-1
11    Chocolate Candy    Jerry Hollendorfer    Mike Smith   20-1
12    General Quarters    Tom McCarthy    Julien Leparoux   20-1
13    I Want Revenge    Jeff Mullins    Joe Talamo   3-1
14    Atomic Rain    Kelly Breen    Joe Bravo   50-1
15    Dunkirk    Todd Pletcher    Edgar Prado   4-1
16    Pioneerof the Nile    Bob Baffert    Garrett Gomez   4-1
17    Summer Bird    Tim Ice    Chris Rosier   50-1
18    Nowhere to Hide    Nick Zito    Shaun Bridgmohan   50-1
19    Desert Party    Saeed bin Suroor    Ramon Dominguez   15-1
20    Flying Private    D. Wayne Lukas    Robby Albarado   50-1

[Moon]

It looks like Friesan Fire got a nice post, unless that's the post that doesn't have many winners.

Sea Hero won from the 6 post, but that's it since 1970, if I read it right.

[The_Knight_Sky]

If they got rid of the six hopeless 50/1 shots and ran it with a select field of 14.

Wouldn't there be a drastic reduction in the chance of injuries
and lessen chance of "the best horses" incurring trip troubles?

[APCD Dan]

If they got rid of the six hopeless 50/1 shots and ran it with a select field of 14.

Wouldn't there be a drastic reduction in the chance of injuries
and lessen chance of "the best horses" incurring trip troubles?

Never happen, that would make too much sense!

[The_Knight_Sky]

Never happen, that would make too much sense!

   The timebomb is ticking until something does happen on the racetrack.

The sport will not ever recover from it.   

The media just will never let it rest, year after year into the future. 

[CLOCKERTERRY]

I think we should cut it down to a select 6 to really reduce the chances of injury, and really get that traffic out of the way.

How the Europeans and Australians and Asians run all those 20-something and 30-something horse races is beyond me.

[Edwarren]

If they got rid of the six hopeless 50/1 shots and ran it with a select field of 14.

Wouldn't there be a drastic reduction in the chance of injuries
and lessen chance of "the best horses" incurring trip troubles?

IMO I don't think so.

[Edwarren]

I think we should cut it down to a select 6 to really reduce the chances of injury, and really get that traffic out of the way.

How the Europeans and Australians and Asians run all those 20-something and 30-something horse races is beyond me.

haha  sarcasm of course?  I hope so.
Ed

[CLOCKERTERRY]

haha  sarcasm of course?  I hope so.
Ed

Well, as long as we're telling some owners they can't run their horses in the Kentucky Derby when they've finally got a good enough horse to go, let's tell a few more what "we" really need to do. All in the name of safety and clean trips for their own good, of course.

[The_Knight_Sky]

....when they've finally got a good enough horse to go...

Which of the 50/1 shots do you feel is "good enough to go" to the Kentucky Derby?

[Edwarren]

Which of the 50/1 shots do you feel is "good enough to go" to the Kentucky Derby?

the #8 Mine Bird

[Moon]

What if Join In The Dance steals it on the front end??

[Edwarren]

Hows he going to do that?

[Moon]

Hows he going to do that?

He's got a better shot than your 80 Beyer "Mine" horse!!!!! So THERE!!! Take THAT!!!!! FIVE EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!!!





Come on, Ed. Bring it on!!! We've never had a good argument!!



Let's get to the name calling, you Liberal pansy ass wealthy guy, YOU!!!

[Moon]

Wow! I just realized 16 horses are 15/1 or worse.

The Morning Line guy (it's that insane Battaglia, isn't it??) thinks this is a 4 horse race.

[JoeMama]

This is as a serious Derby for handicappers. It looks to be one of the better Derbies to analyze.

In most Derbies, there are a ton of horses that don't belong, they generally have early speed, they gun, set insane fractions, and set it up. There is very little blazing speed this year. I can see many scenarios...Join in the Dance could be the leader and if all of the other jocks go to sleep, I guess he could last a while. On the other hand, a single jock could sense the pace and press him, go by, and win it. On the other other hand, a number of riders might sense the pace, and make moves earlier than they would like, and this would set it up for a late runner.

It appears there a number of middle move types and there are some later runners. Very little front running speed.  If I had to predict, the winner will be the rider who decides to press Join in the Dance... or too many horses will make early/middle moves and it will set up for the typical late runner.

Pioneer of the Mile looks like a horrible play. He might be a great horse and win,but he has not proven himself on the dirt and does not desrve to be a short price. Dunkirk doesnt appear to have the experience and will be too short of a price. I Want Revenge looks the best of the shorties but he will be too heavily bet, Mullins is not a proven Derby trainer,and the horse look to have the same style of running as many other which puts him at a disadvantage.

It looks like a riders race with lots of luck involved.

I wonder if one of the Godolphin runners could do it. This year seems to be lacking a big horse from America, maybe a Dubai based horse can do it.

I don't know.

[Edwarren]

I'll fall down dead if he wins. he'll be 80-1. 

[NIATROSS]

I'll fall down dead if he wins. he'll be 80-1. 

If you are talking Desert Party make sure someone has your address so I can send some flowers.

I have not checked the weather but that can always mess things up..If IWR runs back to his best on a fast track it might be all she wrote.

Street Cry to Street Sense to Desert Party is worth a couple of dollars at 80-1.I know the 2 Dubai horses will still be running when they see that long stretch at CD.Are they or will they be good enough ? I know one of them has the bloodlines that shows an affinity for CD.

[Horse Voice]

Wow! I just realized 16 horses are 15/1 or worse.

The Morning Line guy (it's that insane Battaglia, isn't it??) thinks this is a 4 horse race.

And how funny is it that two of them (POTN and Dunkirk) have only a tiny chance to win?

Part of the problem is the field size. He wrote a 138% line, which is huge -- if he had a few more short priced horses in there, the total line would have been an outright fraud.

[CLOCKERTERRY]

Part of the problem is the field size. He wrote a 138% line, which is huge

I think that was done to irritate edwarren.

[Horse Voice]

I think that was done to irritate edwarren.

Well, Battaglia *thought* he only had to cover the takeout and possible scratches -- he was alarmed to find out that he also had to account for the "booking percentage".

(Whatever the F that is.)

[Coldfooter]

Forecast for Louisville for the next 2 days:  Oaks day, Scattered thundershowers 60% chance of rain.

Derby Day, thundershowers, 60% chance of rain.

[Coldfooter]

If you are talking Desert Party make sure someone has your address so I can send some flowers.

Desert Party is my bomber; he put in an great workout the other day.

These old derby rules; you have to race at two, you don't win coming from UAE, I look at these as statistics that will pad the payouts of the horses that eventually buck the trend.

[Edwarren]

What if Join In The Dance steals it on the front end??

I'll fall down dead if he wins. he'll be 80-1. 

If you are talking Desert Party make sure someone has your address so I can send some flowers.

No, Join In The Dance.

[Horse Voice]

These old derby rules; you have to race at two, you don't win coming from UAE, I look at these as statistics that will pad the payouts of the horses that eventually buck the trend.

Don't know about that. If you are always getting a giant price on your "Trend Buster", and you can withstand a long losing streak while you wait, yes.

But if you are taking a short price, like betting Fusaichi Pegasus at a ridiculous 2.30-1 after the favorite hadn't won in 20 straight years, or betting Curlin at 5-1 when no horse that was unraced at 2 had won the Derby since Apollo did it in 1882...well, then you are getting the absolute WORST of it.

The same folks that seeded the win pools with dead money on Curlin will be back this year to do the same with Dunkirk. If Dunkirk does happen to break the trend, what are these trend busting daredevils going to get for knocking down a 127 year old wall?

About $11 for every $2 they bet. Large charge.