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Author Topic: Lane's End Stakes  (Read 3555 times)
NYRA 792
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« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2009, 11:46:44 PM »

Believe what you will.
You can look in the Thorograph archive of past Derby winners. ( it's free)
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2009, 03:09:11 AM »

I have no interest in this race wagering wise, but Bittlel Rd showed significant development  from his first artificial surface race to his second one.

I hope the wagering public agrees with you, because at first glance it might appear that Bittel Road's second artificial surface race is "better" -- he finished the last part of that race a little faster and came up with a slightly faster final time.

But if you watch Bittel's two races on artificial surfaces carefully, you will notice two things:

1. He suffered significant ground loss in his first artificial surface race -- he was 3 and 4 wide pretty much the whole way around the track, but in his 2nd artificial surface race at Santa Anita, he had darn near a perfect trip rail most of the way & sitting chilly behind the front-runners until about halfway through the final turn, then he tips out into the 2-path for his run to the wire.

2. In both races, he doesn't show sufficient late kick to get the job done. He might have turned into a hanger.

Sorry, no "significant development" here that I can see. IMO, his Hollywood race is the more impressive race simply because of the ground loss -- anywhere from 4 - 6 lengths with that wide trip -- but he only finished 2/5 of a second slower (raw time) than his second start on artificial. At best, I could say that perhaps he needed one off of the 7 week layoff, and ran roughly the same race both times -- but he didn't move forward an inch, from what I can see.

The bigger problem, though, is Bittel's unwillingness or inability to engage late in both races -- and tells me that he is feeling the effects of his sire's decidedly sprint (AWD: 6.5 furlongs) influence as the competition gets tougher at these route distances. He needs way too many things to go wrong with everybody else in order to win a G2 race at 9 furlongs right now -- and he's already quit twice at eight and a half.

Like I said earlier, I'd toss him completely if anybody but Garrett Gomez was riding. Easily the worst looking favorite I've seen in any of this Saturday's big races. If he wins, I'm going to lose ALOT of money.
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glahn
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« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2009, 07:16:17 AM »

Like I said earlier, I'd toss him completely if anybody but Garrett Gomez was riding. Easily the worst looking favorite I've seen in any of this Saturday's big races. If he wins, I'm going to lose ALOT of money.

I think Bernie will end up favorite. And you're going to lose a lot of of money anyway if you bet on A.P. Cardinal, regardless of what Bittel Road does. Wink
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ChitownSteve75
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« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2009, 08:43:22 AM »

Is this suppose to be a prep for the KY Derby? Because I can't see any horse here who will go into the Derby, barring a huge jump up.

It's a Graded race for 3YO's and Graded earnings is what counts. One of these horses will most likley run in the Derby. Don't be surprised if a few of these run in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in mid-April either.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2009, 08:51:22 AM by ChitownSteve75 » Report to moderator   Logged

ZENYATTA THE GREAT! NOT RA!
glahn
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« Reply #29 on: March 21, 2009, 09:06:24 AM »

One of these horses will most likley run in the Derby.

And most likely run 15th-20th.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2009, 09:11:30 AM »

And you're going to lose a lot of of money anyway if you bet on A.P. Cardinal, regardless of what Bittel Road does. Wink

It doesn't quite follow.

I'll lose everything I bet on this race if Bittel Road wins, because I won't have a penny of him on top.

A.P. Cardinal is a mild "use" for me -- not a key -- so I can still crush the race even if A.P. doesn't run a step. I would then lose the small portion of my overall bets that involve this horse, but trust me -- if my other horses come in, I will be more than compensated for the "loss".

Frankly, glahn, you were the last person on this forum I thought I'd have to explain this to -- thought you understood betting strategies. Don't remember you letting handicapping dogma get in the way of you using multiple horses in P4, P6 bets, either.  Huh 

Maybe my memory is toast, and it wasn't you -- I'll have to go back and look.

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« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2009, 12:32:06 PM »

Proceed Bee...West Side Berney and Orthodox in a three horse ex and tri box. Bomb
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glahn
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« Reply #32 on: March 21, 2009, 12:52:41 PM »

It doesn't quite follow.

I'll lose everything I bet on this race if Bittel Road wins, because I won't have a penny of him on top.

A.P. Cardinal is a mild "use" for me -- not a key -- so I can still crush the race even if A.P. doesn't run a step. I would then lose the small portion of my overall bets that involve this horse, but trust me -- if my other horses come in, I will be more than compensated for the "loss".

Frankly, glahn, you were the last person on this forum I thought I'd have to explain this to -- thought you understood betting strategies. Don't remember you letting handicapping dogma get in the way of you using multiple horses in P4, P6 bets, either.  Huh 

Maybe my memory is toast, and it wasn't you -- I'll have to go back and look.



I thought I read you saying you really liked this horse. I must be mistaken if in fact you're going to spread in a variety of wagers (rather than, say, use 3 or 4 horses in a trifecta box, in which case the 3-horse box would be a loser provided Pitino's horse is in there, and the 4-horse box would probably be very low probability).

Me, I'm most likely not going to bet at all at TP, although I did download the form. Can't find shit to bet on.

Also, didn't you say you wouldn't bet "polycrap?"
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2009, 01:20:06 PM »

I thought I read you saying you really liked this horse.

I looked, to make sure I didn't give that strong of a recommendation: I wrote that he has a chance to improve and is a borderline contender. I think you are confusing my comments with ChrissyTina's.

Also, didn't you say you wouldn't bet "polycrap?"

Yes I did. That has changed. I've been getting some help on handicapping the fake crap from a ThoroGraph expert, and I'm starting to get a read on Turfway and Santa Anita...no claims to expertise or even "comfort" with the stuff, yet. Some nice surface switch angles have popped up, though.  Wink

I gave Golden Gate a small trial, but talk about not being able to find [stuff] to bet! Northern California racing is about as useless as a 13-inch dick on a priest.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2009, 01:21:46 PM by Horse Voice » Report to moderator   Logged
glahn
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« Reply #34 on: March 21, 2009, 01:34:00 PM »

I gave Golden Gate a small trial, but talk about not being able to find [stuff] to bet! Northern California racing is about as useless as a 13-inch dick on a priest.

So does this mean you'll be getting into AP this summer? The first summer I hated it, but last year I really liked it and did really well betting pick 4s. It just takes me more combinations on average than pick 4s on dirt, but they were paying out real well last year (I had a ton of signers).

GG is good if you can sit on your hands for weeks at a time. I come up with a real strong win bet there once every few weeks. Problem is, if I encounter a "losing streak" it ends up lasting months because I might only make one or two bets per month.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #35 on: March 21, 2009, 02:08:49 PM »

So does this mean you'll be getting into AP this summer?

I'll give them a try, sure. Theoretical bets on paper, first, before any money gets wagered. Never really made it out of this stage at Golden Gate.

That's the beauty of simulcasting, IMO -- we're free to ignore certain tracks, circuits, entire parts of the country if we want. We can agree to disagree on this, but I find Golden Gate to be every bit as ignorable as Calder, and Maryland racing -- plenty o' other places to find live horses.
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glahn
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« Reply #36 on: March 21, 2009, 03:40:25 PM »

I found a bet at TP, the Bourbonette Stakes:

$20 win 3
$7 win 7
$1 ex bx 3-7
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glahn
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« Reply #37 on: March 21, 2009, 03:44:41 PM »

No good. I was on the verge of betting that 10 horse as well, but didn't want to bet 3 horses.
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Edwarren
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« Reply #38 on: March 21, 2009, 04:38:07 PM »

Takeout for the 9th race win pool, TUP, 0 mtp, is a whopping 33.8%

1  15-1
2  5-2
3  2-1
4  7-1
5  2-1
6  6-1
7  60-1
8  25-1  = 33.8% but who's counting?

We'll see the actual chart later to find if it's actually closer to normal. The counting room could have had a problem posting closing odds.

Ok, on to the tenth, the Lanes End.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2009, 04:58:09 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
glahn
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« Reply #39 on: March 21, 2009, 04:41:00 PM »

This 8 horse has very good breeding for this distance, and since kickback is reduced on polytrack compared to dirt, a stalking trip shouldn't hurt him. I'll be betting this race and keying on this one, using him with the 1,2,4,5,6,12 in exactas, triactors and 10-cent supers.
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Edwarren
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« Reply #40 on: March 21, 2009, 04:52:21 PM »

Takeout for the 9th race win pool, TUP, 0 mtp, is a whopping 33.8%

1  15-1
2  5-2
3  2-1
4  7-1
5  2-1
6  6-1
7  60-1
8  25-1  = 33.8% but who's counting?

We'll see the actual chart later to find if it's actually closer to normal. The counting room could have had a problem posting closing odds.

Ok, on to the tenth, the Lanes End.

Ok ,it looks like the board for the Lanes End closed at 29.2%.  5 co-favored horses are under 10-1. I defy anyone to beat this on a regular basis.
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glahn
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« Reply #41 on: March 21, 2009, 04:55:40 PM »

Nothing. I told my mom to make a 10-cent super box of 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,12, which would've cost $302.40 and returned $4094.45. She didn't. I should've done it myself instead of keying on the 8.
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glahn
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« Reply #42 on: March 21, 2009, 05:00:57 PM »

Did you crush it, Horse Voice?
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Edwarren
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« Reply #43 on: March 21, 2009, 05:03:26 PM »

.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #44 on: March 21, 2009, 05:09:36 PM »

Takeout for the 9th race win pool, TUP, 0 mtp, is a whopping 33.8%

1  15-1
2  5-2
3  2-1
4  7-1
5  2-1
6  6-1
7  60-1
8  25-1  = 33.8% but who's counting?

We'll see the actual chart later to find if it's actually closer to normal. The counting room could have had a problem posting closing odds.

Ok, on to the tenth, the Lanes End.

You are aware, are you not, that the odds on the board are only rounded down approximations of the actual odds?  doh

1 15.0-1
2 2.9-1
3 2.4-1
4 7.2-1
5 2.2-1
6 6.6-1
7 67.1-1
8 26.3-1

Now, do tell us what the exact finishing win pool was, too, for that 9th at TP Turfway Park.
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glahn
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« Reply #45 on: March 21, 2009, 05:14:18 PM »

Should be 18.5% by my calculations. Their stated takeout is 17.5% on win bets, so it looks close enough. Not sure where that extra per cent went, though.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #46 on: March 21, 2009, 05:24:55 PM »

Should be 18.5% by my calculations. Their stated takeout is 17.5% on win bets, so it looks close enough. Not sure where that extra per cent went, though.

Breakage, most likely.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #47 on: March 21, 2009, 05:28:39 PM »

I have the 9th race win pool listed at 215,258
10th race win pool 456,693
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2009, 05:31:19 PM »

Did you crush it, Horse Voice?

Very disappointing mistake in dismissing the Mott horse. Every time I think I know more about a horse than his trainer, I get kicked in the nutsack -- and deservedly so, I guess.

I was sure his horse was going to get bet -- I predicted he'd be an underlay -- but when he didn't get bet, I was even more certain that I had the right read on his horse.  doh

Played some small saver exactas with Flying Private and Proceed Bee top and bottom and managed to cover the cost of my bets, but a giant missed opportunity like this makes me sick.

I was going to play some more races today, but forget it now. I had this damn thing nailed almost perfect, top to bottom -- I know, A.P. didn't pick up his feet, but the important parts were being right about Bittel Road not having any chance, and being willing to take a swing against Bernie.

One mistake -- and not a completely unreasonable one, downgrading a horse coming in off of the longest layoff in the field at 4 months off -- and that's the f*cker that wins the race!  Angry  
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glahn
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« Reply #49 on: March 21, 2009, 05:34:33 PM »

I put $36 into the high five at Haw and hit it. Not sure what it'll pay with 8-5, 8-5, 4-1, 21-1 and 5-1. $11k carryover, though.
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