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Author Topic: Lane's End Stakes  (Read 3554 times)
ChrissyTina
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« on: March 20, 2009, 03:49:26 PM »

Ok so what do you all predict for the Lanes End Stakes at Turfway tomorrow?

A lot of folks on the Road to Roses contest have WEST SIDE BERNIE in their stables and he looks to be the favorite for the race. This is one of those horses that I think is overrated. The only thing I really like about him is his name..its catchy.

I'm hoping for an upset winner here with AP CARDINAL.
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2009, 04:00:11 PM »

It's on TV!!! ESPN2
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glahn
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2009, 05:31:33 PM »

I'm hoping for an upset winner here with AP CARDINAL.

He stinks. West Side Bernie should win for fun unless he doesn't, in which case Bittel Road is the only logical contender. If not one of these two, it'll probably be some huge bomber, not the 3rd or 4th choice.
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2009, 07:27:47 PM »

I just looked at ThoroGraph for this race. Here is what it looks like to me, horse by horse:

Hold Me Back (6-1): Doubt that Mott has this one fully cranked up off the layoff. Could improve enough off 2 year old form to get a piece; underlay for win.

Bittel Road (5-2): No signs of development yet, and on his best he's not faster than West Side Bernie. Suspect favorite...I'd toss completely if anybody other than Gomez was aboard. Decided underlay; I'll use defensively in the lesser spots only.

A. P. Cardinal (10-1): Is just as fast as Bittel Road, but with a chance to improve off of paired-up efforts, and a better price, too. Borderline contender.

West Side Bernie (3-1): Has the best series of numbers in here, but hasn't improved a whole lot in 5 lifetime starts and isn't exactly tons faster than the rest. Vulnerable, underlaid contender.
 
Jack Spratt (8-1): Another with paired-up efforts, a good indicator of possible improvement to come. Trainer Maker is capable of getting huge move-ups in Kentucky. Tote action usually tells the tale with Maker -- if he's dead on the board, toss him. If he gets bet, look out.

Parade Clown (10-1): Ran a figure 2 races back that was better than anything West Side Bernie or any of the other in here have done. Regressed a little last -- no surprise there -- and could be sitting on another huge forward move. Attracts Coa. Horse For Course has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 starts at Turfway on the polycrap, so we don't have to wonder if he likes it or not -- he does. Don't ignore.

Bruce N Autumn (20-1): Another trainer (Romans) capable of huge move-ups in Kentucky. Horse doesn't appear to be quite stakes quality yet, though, and would need to run about 2 seconds faster than ever before just to be in the mix. Tall order, looking elsewhere.

Orthodox (10-1): Just too slow.

Loch Dubh (20-1): And yet another with paired-up efforts and possible upside, but mixed signals here: pedigree and 3 failed route attempts say no, but Borel says yes -- he'll have to get to the rail right away and get a suck along trip, then hope the race falls apart late. That's asking alot.

Flying Private (12-1): If he has to beat the hell out of every 3 year old in his barn, Lukas is going to have a Derby horse this year, dammit, and that's what's going on with this horse: first 3 year old stakes campaigner I've seen this year to have already racked up 4 starts. His most recent line IS a forging line, though, and if he makes yet another move forward like he has in his last two, he wins this for fun at a giant mutuel. Lukas + Kentucky + Lukas' Ginormous Ego = Anything Can Happen. This one has a huge shot, and writing that just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. If he wins, cue sickening DRF story with inane "Knock Knock! Guess Who's Back for Derby?" headline.

Dynamite Bob: (50-1): Abject no-hoper should be 500-1.

Proceed Bee (12-1): Popped a significant new top last out. Would need another forward move; not likely, but not out of the question. Has won 4 of 6, and the lone race in which he missed the board wasn't that bad, considering he was coming off a layoff, got a slow start and was later steadied. Things to like here.

Summary: Wide open betting race. With the top 3 ML horses looking like somewhat shaky propositions at short prices, this race is begging for a bomb. I'm probably going with Parade Clown for a win bet, but an exacta box with this one and A.P. Cardinal, Jack Spratt, Flying Private, and Proceed Bee isn't out of the question -- simply because there will be so much value in most any of the exactas that leave out Mott's horse and the two favorites. I might even go stark-raving mad and box these 5 in the tri for a buck ($60).
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2009, 07:43:56 PM »

I'm liking Parade Clown.  And might do something with Loch Dubh.
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Edwarren
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2009, 07:53:18 PM »

If Pams here, I'm here.  LOL  Almost mistypoed your name Pam = spasm.
I'll give it a shot, been busy. Might look at the distaff at AQU tomorrow. Don't know why. 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2009, 07:58:34 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2009, 08:04:25 PM »

I have no interest in this race wagering wise, but Bittlel Rd showed significant development  from his first artificial surface race to his second one.
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ChitownSteve75
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2009, 08:06:06 PM »

He stinks. West Side Bernie should win for fun unless he doesn't, in which case Bittel Road is the only logical contender. If not one of these two, it'll probably be some huge bomber, not the 3rd or 4th choice.

West Side Bernie is vulnerable on this surface. Bittel road will do better. Keep an eye out for Jack Spratt . Leparoux & Maker are 31% winners together and are the leading trainer/Jock at the track. This horse had some good success as a 2YO. A stakes winner at 3 on the grass this year, draw a line thru that last race in the FOY. Gonna play a Bittel Road/Jack Spratt Exacta Box for $20.
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ZENYATTA THE GREAT! NOT RA!
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2009, 08:10:46 PM »

West Side Bernie is vulnerable on this surface. Bittel road will do better. Keep an eye out for Jack Spratt . Leparoux & Maker are 31% winners together and are the leading trainer/Jock at the track. This horse had some good success as a 2YO. A stakes winner at 3 on the grass this year, draw a line thru that last race in the FOY. Gonna play a Bittel Road/Jack Spratt Exacta Box for $20.

Horses by Candy Ride   have been big on the artificial surface
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Edwarren
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2009, 08:21:08 PM »

I have no interest in this race wagering wise, but Bittlel Rd showed significant development  from his first artificial surface race to his second one.

Say, I don't really either, actually.
The feature at HAW is a stakes sprint for IL 3 yos consigned to the IL 2yo training auction. FYI.
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pamwaggy
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2009, 08:23:42 PM »

If Pams here, I'm here.  LOL  Almost mistypoed your name Pam = spasm.
I'll give it a shot, been busy. Might look at the distaff at AQU tomorrow. Don't know why. 

Well Ed spasm might be right for me today.  I might have HAD some kind of spasm.

I walked out of the house all dressed for a fundraiser where  I had to speak only for five minutes.  Dressed to the nines, as they say.  I stopped at a store to return something first and they were looking at me funny.  Got into the car, caught a glance in the rear view mirror, and was horrified!   I had grabbed my funny pair of glasses accidentally inststead of my regular sunglasses.  The are joke glasses and are zebra strped, pointy and one eye is up and one down.  I was acting all normal and had those on!  They don't feel different on than my good ones.  I bet they all died laughing when I walked out of that store!
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glahn
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2009, 08:41:11 PM »

Summary: Wide open betting race. With the top 3 ML horses looking like somewhat shaky propositions at short prices, this race is begging for a bomb. I'm probably going with Parade Clown for a win bet, but an exacta box with this one and A.P. Cardinal, Jack Spratt, Flying Private, and Proceed Bee isn't out of the question -- simply because there will be so much value in most any of the exactas that leave out Mott's horse and the two favorites. I might even go stark-raving mad and box these 5 in the tri for a buck ($60).

I spent a whopping two minutes looking at the PPs for this, but that's enough for me to say A.P. Cardinal doesn't hit the board, and gets bet to 6-1 or 7-1 from his 10-1 m/l. Look at who he's faced. Nobody. Every single one of those horses in those over-hyped GP allowances has come back to do absolutely nothing. After the Sam Davis I started immediately throwing those horses out of all slots every time they run (Free Country got bet from 10-1 to 7-1 in the last minute of wagering at FG last time, lol). As a matter of fact, I think all the 3yos that have run at GP are toss-outs anywhere they go (although Bernie may win by default).
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Edwarren
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2009, 08:43:48 PM »

Well Ed spasm might be right for me today.  I might have HAD some kind of spasm.

I walked out of the house all dressed for a fundraiser where  I had to speak only for five minutes.  Dressed to the nines, as they say.  I stopped at a store to return something first and they were looking at me funny.  Got into the car, caught a glance in the rear view mirror, and was horrified!   I had grabbed my funny pair of glasses accidentally inststead of my regular sunglasses.  The are joke glasses and are zebra strped, pointy and one eye is up and one down.  I was acting all normal and had those on!  They don't feel different on than my good ones.  I bet they all died laughing when I walked out of that store!

Thanks for the laugh. I mean it. Laughing still.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2009, 08:45:20 PM by Edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
Moon
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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2009, 09:16:08 PM »

Is this suppose to be a prep for the KY Derby? Because I can't see any horse here who will go into the Derby, barring a huge jump up.
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2009, 09:45:46 PM »

Yes it's a prep. If your goal is May, you don't want to run too fast too soon.
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2009, 10:00:08 PM »

Yes it's a prep. If your goal is May, you don't want to run too fast too soon.

There's less than 2 months until the Derby. That means 2 more races (counting tomorrow), tops. I suppose the winner of this race will be on the Derby Trail, but I doubt he will make it.
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2009, 10:03:53 PM »

If your goal is May, the idea isn't to be fast last month or this month, it's to be peaking in May. This is prime developmental time for 3yos. That has to be managed properly.
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2009, 10:20:08 PM »

I'll pass on this race. None of these horses look good to me.
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Moon
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2009, 10:26:59 PM »

If your goal is May, the idea isn't to be fast last month or this month, it's to be peaking in May. This is prime developmental time for 3yos. That has to be managed properly.

They have ONE race left before the Derby after tomorrow. Development time is over. If you aren't fine-tuning at this point, you likely aren't a contender.
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2009, 10:29:59 PM »

In Parade Clowns Last I thought the Jock rushed him too soon moved him to the Inside when he got the lead and never saw Proceed Bee at the M/L he is my bet
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2009, 10:33:32 PM »

They have ONE race left before the Derby after tomorrow. Development time is over. If you aren't fine-tuning at this point, you likely aren't a contender.

Development time is over ?


Charismatic might beg to differ.
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2009, 10:36:16 PM »

They have ONE race left before the Derby after tomorrow. Development time is over. If you aren't fine-tuning at this point, you likely aren't a contender.

no development time isn't over
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Moon
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« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2009, 11:08:30 PM »

no development time isn't over

Sez you.
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« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2009, 11:21:30 PM »

says nature, says genetics,  but ok a horse is done developing in March of its 3yo year  Roll Eyes
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Moon
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2009, 11:39:12 PM »

says nature, says genetics,  but ok a horse is done developing in March of its 3yo year  Roll Eyes

Nobody said a horse is done developing in March of its 3yo year. I said development time in preparation for the DERBY is over and they aren't going to move forward that much more in 6 weeks and that this is a time for fine tuning. If a horse doesn't look a Derby horse right now, it's VERY unlikely that he will be a Derby horse in 6 weeks.
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