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Author Topic: Risen Star  (Read 1948 times)
abe1947
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« on: February 03, 2009, 11:38:37 AM »

Boy, what a race! Ten of the 13 are, or were, on my Derby watch list! I'd say that the person who hits this exacta or tri will be smiling all the way to the bank! What would be your picks? beer
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The Commander
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2009, 11:59:09 AM »

After the first of what will be many looks at Saturday FG pp's, in the Risen Star I like;

INDYGO MOUNTAIN

IT HAPPENED AGAIN

GIANT OAK

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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2009, 10:13:44 PM »

I really like the post for Giant Oak, but he'll probably be the favorite. Sure is great to see a IL bred on the Derby trail, he'll it's great to see two with Summer's Empire also in the mix. I'm also intrigued by Dumar and Indygo Mountain.

Not sure how I'm going to play this yet. I'll revist Friday.
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abe1947
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2009, 06:13:34 PM »

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/risenstarpps.pdf
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Moon
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2009, 06:52:12 PM »

Here's the racing forms pps.

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/09FGRisenstar.pdf
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Moon
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2009, 07:02:19 PM »

I'm going to go with Au Moon.

No reason.

maroon
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glahn
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2009, 07:31:27 PM »

This race looks like an incredibly tough betting proposition.
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 10:32:52 AM »

This race looks like an incredibly tough betting proposition.

I know, as I look at the PPs I'm rethinking everything, well except Giant Oak. Betting on the IL bred for the sentimental reason will likely be my downfall, but he has shown some good form and came on late in his last outing. His only blemish is a toss out IMO because of the traffic. With his favorable post here hopefully he'll be able to avoid traffic issues this time out.
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Coldfooter
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 01:03:09 PM »

I can't bet a race when the horse I want to win is the likely favorite.  Go GIANT OAK!!

By the way, what was the last IL bred to run in the derby?
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The Commander
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 01:15:30 PM »

AS OF RIGHT NOW IM USING GIANT OAK AND INDYGO MOUNTAIN IN MY PICK 4, 5 AND 6. GIANT OAK MAY END UP BEING A SINGLE  FOR ME  AS INDYGO MOUNTAIN'S CONNECTIONS SAY HIS CONDITIONING IS STILL A BIT OFF.

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ChrissyTina
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 03:16:11 PM »

I have NO IDEA who I'm going with in this race. I keep changing my mind. I'm not even going to play this race for the derby list contest, I'm sticking with the Whirlaway and Robert B Lewis stakes only.

To many good horses in the Risen Star. These are my top four: Friesan Fire, Soul Warrior, It Happened Again, Giant Oak.

Can't wait to see the results of this race!
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"Never let a win get to your head, or a loss to your heart."
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 03:35:42 PM »

Horse by horse analysis:

#1 Map of the World: previous efforts at age 2 on the slow side, 3yo debut not encouraging...pass

#2 Indygo Mountain: fast at 2, excuse last, well-bred and in good hands...from what I am seeing elsewhere on the 'net this afternoon, forget 10-1, "wiseguy choice" and possibly a big underlay. Use in P3, P4, etc.

#3 Nowhere to Hide: ran pretty much the same race every time last year, no reason to expect much improvement. Catch him on a sloppy track some day, he'll love it.
 
#4 It Happened Again: has run giant in both wins, both technically sprints, but the last at Delta Downs was a two-turn race. Don't overlook!

#5 Uno Mas: made necessary improvement to win alw race in Dec., then bounced in LeComte...would normally indicate that the wheels might be coming off, but this is Asmussen so you'd better use him.

#6 Friesan Fire: beat nobody that was good or ready to fire in the LeComte, so won by default. This horse hasn't developed an inch since his debut win at Delaware. I'm inclined to toss him out completely, but then he'll just run 2nd and bust up all my exotics. Small chance to win at a terrible price = huge underlay.

#7 Giant Oak: won first two races vs. slugs, bounced (predictably) next out, then orgasmed in the Kentucky JC. I'm guessing that this colt needed every bit of that month off before he got back on the work tab. Good recent works, but I'm gonna guess that he's still a little short. Block's much better 2nd off the layoff anyway. Use in-the-money only.

#8 Dumar: just too slow...I don't care if it is Asmussen.

#9 Code of Honour: 1st three lifetime races would have had me putting this horse in N2L claimers, but had a huge wakeup in win at Delta, then validated that win with an even better performance in the cheap stakes race, the same two-turn 7F event that #4 It Happened Again came out of. This horse seems to be in a development spurt, and if he's not done yet, look out! Live longshot and my best bet of the weekend.

#10 Soul Warrior: ran 2 very good races, but has more of a sprinter's pedigree; is Asmussen though, and will be a price. Hard to use, hard to toss. Flyer on the side for $10?

#11 Summer's Empire: too slow, and get your ass back up here where you belong, you Ill-bred plowhorse.

#12 Flying Pegasus: the 'X' factor, ran good races at 2, then disappeared due to an injury that required surgery. Bad post, low-ish morning line (6-1), and Robbie "Brain Fart" Albarado in the saddle...not today.
 
#13 Au Moon: boy oh boy did the money show in this horse's 2nd start, when he tried long for the first time. Doesn't seem fast enough and gets a bad post, but if the money shows in this 13-horse field, you know what to do.
 
 
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glahn
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 04:16:15 PM »

#9 Code of Honour: 1st three lifetime races would have had me putting this horse in N2L claimers, but had a huge wakeup in win at Delta, then validated that win with an even better performance in the cheap stakes race, the same two-turn 7F event that #4 It Happened Again came out of. This horse seems to be in a development spurt, and if he's not done yet, look out! Live longshot and my best bet of the weekend.

Best bet at what odds? If he's 10-1 is he still your best bet?
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 04:44:13 PM »

Best bet at what odds? If he's 10-1 is he still your best bet?

I didn't bother, because this horse just isn't on anybody's radar. I doubt he ever drops below his ML 20-1 in this field, with several other overhyped horses in the race.   
 
If he's less than 12-1, I'll just pass on the win bet and use him in exotics and serials only.

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edwarren
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2009, 05:02:19 PM »

Heres who I come up with since I have these contending:
#4 It happened again *
#6 friesan fire *
#7 giant oak *
#8 dumar
#9 code of honor
#10 soul warrior *
#11 summers empire
#12 flying pegasus (might probably bounce; not too thrilled about him)


« Last Edit: February 06, 2009, 06:00:26 PM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
glahn
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2009, 05:26:48 PM »

Heres who I come up with since I have these contending:
#4 It happened again *
#6 friesan fire *
#7 giant oak *
#8 dumar
#9 code of honor
#10 soul warrior *
#11 summers empire
#12 flying pegasus




If the m/l were accurate at post time, I think Soul Warrior would be the best bet.

I wonder why Bridgmohan is on Dumar. He does have the best distance breeding of the three Asmussens, but...
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runninfool
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2009, 05:38:27 PM »

Coldfooter,

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Western Playboy was the last IL bred to be in the Ky Derby...
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edwarren
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2009, 06:32:23 PM »

If the m/l were accurate at post time, I think Soul Warrior would be the best bet.

I wonder why Bridgmohan is on Dumar. He does have the best distance breeding of the three Asmussens, but...

It looks to me like you HAVE to bet the two faves somehow so right now you're behind the 8 ball, know what I mean? The morning line looks pretty good, one or two or a different few will work higher. I'd be surprised if any one horse gets absolutely pounded but be careful because If the chalk work lower you'll be in trouble. I'm gonna lay against flying p. I think that's the bet here. Then you could even bet Indygo Mountain, if you like him. I'd be a little surprised but Au Moon could screw things up.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2009, 06:51:15 PM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
vcackerman
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2009, 08:54:33 PM »

Giant Oak ran huge in the Kentucky JC which was his first effort on dirt after running on poly and grass.   He added blinks in that race and improved.   He might bounce here, but seems to be deserving of being one of the favorites.

The thing with Summer's Empire is that he might be in too tough here but talk about a turn around with lasix.  3 starts pre lasix, 1 3rd and with lasix he's 3-3.  If he could run like daddy, he'll keep improving.



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bjchapin1
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2009, 11:51:57 PM »

Coldfooter,

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Western Playboy was the last IL bred to be in the Ky Derby...

You're right.

Wasn't Polar Expedition in the mid-90s supposed to be the next great ILbred hope and then didn't make the Derby.
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glahn
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2009, 11:21:57 AM »

Does anyone have any ideas or estimations how much will be bet into the pick 6 at FG today? Does anyone know what handle has been for this bet in the past at FG with days like this? What about with a 13.5k carry?

Deciding whether to bet this, but I'd need at least 52K bet into today's pool to make it worth a bet.
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runninfool
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2009, 07:47:26 AM »

Polar Expedition bypassed the Kentucky Derby in favor of the IL Derby, but didn't like the mud that day.  He still was a 3 time IL bred horse of the year.
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edwarren
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2009, 08:40:07 AM »

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« Last Edit: February 08, 2009, 08:44:09 AM by edwarren » Report to moderator   Logged
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