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Author Topic: Super Bowl XLIII  (Read 4522 times)
Coldfooter
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« on: January 29, 2009, 12:20:25 PM »

Everybody and their momma loves the Steelers. 

If you bet Pittsburgh giving 7 points all year, you would have won 8 of your 18 bets.
Keep in mind they played the Browns and the Bengals 2 times each.  Sure I make them favorites to win, but not by 7.   

I hope this will be a good game.  I am torn on who I want to win.  But no way would I bet the Steelers and give the points.  If the Cards can pop a few big plays early, as they have recently, look out.   The Steelers are not a high powered offense, not built to get into a shootout.  Big Ben played the worst game ever by a Super Bowl winning quarterback last trip here, if he does that again the Cardinals hoist the trophy.  Give me Warner, Fitz, Boldin, Jesus and the points.




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Horse Voice
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2009, 12:43:37 PM »

I've got a bet for ya that is either borderline stupid, or pure genius.
 
If you think Arizona has any shot of winning, and you want to bet on them, do you take the points and play them at 10/11...or do you have some guts, and play them straight up to win on the moneyline? (Still ~ +200 if you look around.)

I don't know a single horseplayer who would take 10/11 over 2/1. So you play the moneyline, right?
 
Well, wait a minute...the over is 46.5.

And if the Cardinals are going to win, the game is going over.

So if you are willing to bet the Cards on the moneyline...why not go two legs, moneyline to the over, and get slightly more than 9/2?
 
That's what I did: $200 on Cards @+200, to the over at -110, for a tidy little score of $1145.50 if it hits.

Call me crazy.
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Coldfooter
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2009, 01:40:23 PM »

I don't think you are crazy at all, like you said, if you like a horse at all  with good odds you bet him.   I think the money line is a good bet.  I am not sold it has to go over for the Steelers to lose.  That Steelers loss to the  Titans  last month 31-14  is still fresh in my memory.  In fact none of the Steelers losses have crossed over that big of a number.   

These teams played each other in '07.  Final score, Cardinals 21 Steelers 14.
 
I like Whisenhunt and I like the fact that the Cards are built to throw the ball.  Steelers losses have all come against teams that are pass oriented, with the exception of those Titans. Eagles, Giants (pre-Plaxico shooting) and the Colts.  The Steelers are often a brick wall against the run.  I wonder about Hines Wards knee,  he is a big part of both the Steelers running and passing games; best blocking wideout in the league. 

I am not trying to sell the Steelers short.  They have the best defense in football.   They have been here before and won.   Troy Palamalu is worth the price of admission.   Heck, they might blow them out.   I just think the crowd has pushed the line too far for betting Pittsburgh.  In my eyes this is a league of fairly evenly  matched horses.



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Horse Voice
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2009, 03:17:28 PM »

I am not sold it has to go over for the Steelers to lose.  That Steelers loss to the  Titans  last month 31-14  is still fresh in my memory.  In fact none of the Steelers losses have crossed over that big of a number.   

Not to try to sway you, but my thinking is that since Arizona gave up almost as many points as they scored this year, they are not going to stop a good offense like Pittsburgh's. Therefore, you can almost pencil Pittsburgh in for 28 points or more.
 
Which means in order for Arizona to win, the game needs to not just go over, but WAY over.

In my mind, there is no way Arizona can win a low-scoring game -- they just don't have the defense to make a low score stand up. Which leaves two outcomes that look something like this:

'Zona wins, 38-36 (or something like that)

-or-

Pittsburgh wins, 36 - 10 (or some other smallish number)

In either case, Pittsburgh will score plenty of points, but their defense will dictate the outcome.


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Coldfooter
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2009, 06:07:57 PM »

I heard Hines Ward did practice today, if he is healthy it certainly helps your cause.

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arizonadave
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2009, 07:03:14 PM »

might rain in Tampa on sunday, but who knows
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2009, 12:04:36 AM »

Dave do you have any good side bets going with anyone?

I'm rooting for Arizona, too, but think you should get some sort of prize from the forum if your team wins, just because we're (mostly) more east than you. Maybe we could package you up some food or beverage item you don't normally get.
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Coldfooter
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2009, 12:33:06 AM »

I still can't decide who my heart  heart wants to win this one.

Reasons to like Pittsburgh:

Hines Ward
Troy Palamalu
Vincent's Pizza
Great sports town
Money for the Rooneys to buy the franchise was won at Saratoga
Big Ben doesn't preach to me

Reasons to Like Arizona:
Lifetime of losing is relatable to a Cubs fan
They used to be from Chicago
I've mouthed off about them all year on Barntowire
Ken Whisenhunt
Entertaining passing game
Good for the league

Reasons to NOT like Pittsburgh
Some of their fans are WAY too cocky
I'm sick of those stupid yellow towels

Reasons to NOT like Arizona
Their will be a bunch of people in AZ running around in Cardinal gear that never have been fans until now
(repeat of the Atlanta Braves phenomenom of the 90's; there were no Braves fans until they won)
The Bidwells ruined sportsmans Park and people I trust tell me Bill is a weenie
I don't want to hear about Warners savior


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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2009, 01:01:15 AM »

Reasons to NOT like Arizona
Their will be a bunch of people in AZ running around in Cardinal gear that never have been fans until now
(repeat of the Atlanta Braves phenomenom of the 90's; there were no Braves fans until they won)

This would be much like Chicago when the Sox won, and there were more people along the parade route than their entire season attendance, or indeed, Chicago any year any team is winning.

Those playoffs games in '05 at Sox Park, there were SOOOOOO many "lifelong fans" in their brand new Sox garb who had been masquerading as empty seats all those years me and the faithful 14,000 had been actually showing up to those Tuesday night games against KC. It was enough to make you toss cookies.
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2009, 01:19:01 AM »

I think there's a good chance the Steeler offense abuses the cards defense
I have Pitt team total over 20.5 and Pitt team total over 27
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Coldfooter
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2009, 02:04:19 AM »

You're right about the instant Sox instant fans Terry, my ex-boss was one of them.  Halfway through the World Series I finally said "Just because your are from a crappy neighborhood doesn't mean you get to celebrate with the real baseball fans."  No wonder I am now self employed.

Nothing compares to those Atlanta "fans" though.  Ted Turner would have dreamed of a Fulton county stadium with 14,000 a day in it before Glavin, Maddox and Smoltz.  They were drawing 5,000 a game and you could hear the hot dog wrappers hitting the seats as they blew down the aisles.

Whenever I met one of these new baseball converts in their crispy new Braves hats I always liked to make a reference to Chief Noc-A-Homa and watch the puzzled looks on their faces as they tried to figure out what the heck I was talking about.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2009, 02:08:03 AM by Coldfooter » Report to moderator   Logged
Horse Voice
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2009, 02:12:23 AM »

I think there's a good chance the Steeler offense abuses the cards defense
I have Pitt team total over 20.5 and Pitt team total over 27

A "good chance", eh?

This Arizona team gave up an average of 26.6 points per game during the regular season, and 22.7 during the playoffs -- you're really reaching here, arent you? 
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NYRA 792
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2009, 02:17:10 AM »

A "good chance", eh?

This Arizona team gave up an average of 26.6 points per game during the regular season, and 22.7 during the playoffs -- you're really reaching here, arent you? 

didn't say I was reaching
since I'm laying -110 on the over 27 there must be someone thinking they won't score over  27 and the game total has come down from the opener
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arizonadave
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2009, 08:14:34 AM »

i think the weather will have something to do with the total. No side bets that i have Terri, so bring it on. I do have the Cards at 58-1 when i bet them to win the super bowl before preseason. Go Cards
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ABBY
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2009, 05:28:32 PM »

i think the weather will have something to do with the total. No side bets that i have Terri, so bring it on. I do have the Cards at 58-1 when i bet them to win the super bowl before preseason. Go Cards
  Go  Bidwill's, win this one & have everyone go crazy here in Cicero.
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arizonadave
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2009, 06:27:36 PM »

Go Cards, let the game begin
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Moon
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2009, 07:04:51 PM »

What was that Mobil One commercial? YIKES!
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2009, 08:29:58 PM »

Now, does anyone STILL DOUBT NFL football is 100% fixed? Literally two seconds after Madden says, "Look out for the pick down here", boom!, an interception. Scripted all the way. Even the announcers were in on it.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2009, 08:58:12 PM »

Now, does anyone STILL DOUBT NFL football is 100% fixed? Literally two seconds after Madden says, "Look out for the pick down here", boom!, an interception. Scripted all the way. Even the announcers were in on it.

Oh, it's fixed alright. I believe it now.

Has to be -- how else does a 300 lb fat ass lineman who runs slower than I do run it back 99 yards to chump me out of $10k as time expires.
 
Or maybe I was right a month ago, and Arizona is every bit as bad a team as I imagined.  Angry
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glahn
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« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2009, 09:11:21 PM »

Has to be -- how else does a 300 lb fat ass lineman who runs slower than I do run it back 99 yards to chump me out of $10k as time expires.

What on earth type of bet did you make that you could've won $10K on the numbers at the end of a quarter?
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arizonadave
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« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2009, 09:21:34 PM »

Penalties are killing the Cards. doesnt look good.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2009, 09:30:36 PM »

What on earth type of bet did you make that you could've won $10K on the numbers at the end of a quarter?

Squares pool.
 
$1000 a square. Numbers change every quarter.

$10K for 1st, 2nd, 3rd quarter.

$5K reverse on half and final

Your numbers +1 pays $1000 at end of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, final. Same for your numbers -1.

Every score change pays $500. If you had 0 - 0, you got $500 for the initial score. (I earned $500 when the score went to 10-7 in the second quarter.) Touchdowns count for two score changes if the conversion is successful.

The guy running the pool took out 10K for the party he threw for all of the pool participants last week, but a bunch of guys called "bullshit" as it was no $10,000 party, so I don't know where that stands.

Final score gets whatever is left over after all the other payouts (and the "10%" for the party) are deducted.

Some lucky *** is going to pick up at least $35K for the final (and probably a little more, depending on how many more score changes there are).

Won't be me -- I've got Pit 3 Zona 2 for the final. I need something crazy to happen -- something even crazier than the slowest guy on the field running a ball all the way back in the closing seconds.  
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2009, 09:31:45 PM »

Penalties are killing the Cards. doesnt look good.

They'd be winning if the could fvcking tackle!
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Moon
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« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2009, 09:49:41 PM »

Holy carp!!! What a comeback!!
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Moon
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« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2009, 09:50:57 PM »

You might have a gambling problem if you are betting $1000 on a "squares" game, Horse Voice.
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