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Author Topic: Stock Market Crash  (Read 83950 times)
big wally
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« Reply #50 on: October 24, 2008, 04:20:57 AM »

Some of you should have listend to Cramer

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27356563

Britain's economy shrank, China said the outlook was grim and companies from Japan to France were punished on Friday as a downturn born of the worst financial crisis in 80 years took root.

Separate figures from the euro zone showed the 15-nation currency bloc was already in recession, analysts said. Markets nosedived.

 
 
 

European shares shed 7 percent after stocks in Japan had dropped almost 10 percent to their lowest point in 5-1/2 years.

"The global financial crisis has been constantly spreading and worsening, creating a severe shock to global economic growth," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told an Asia-Europe Meeting of 27 European Union member states and 16 Asian nations.

Britain's economy shrunk 0.5 percent in the third quarter, more sharply then forecast, after registering no growth in the second, official data showed.

Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said the risk of a severe UK recession had risen. "Hopefully we can avoid that sort of situation in the current circumstances, but the risks of that have increased," he told BBC Radio.

Compounding the gloom, a survey of companies showed the euro zone private sector economy was on track for its worst performance since the recession of the early 1990s.

The October Markit Eurozone Flash Purchasing Managers' Indexes show services business contracting at its fastest pace since collapsing after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

Factory output was contracting at its fastest pace in at least a decade. "This is it, we are clearly into recession," said Gilles Moec, economist at Bank of America.

A range of corporate giants reeled too, not just the banks who were hit first and hardest by a financial crisis that began with a U.S. housing market collapse and now threatens recession across much of the globe.


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 Sony's shares tumbled 13 percent to a 13-year low after it halved its profit forecast because the fallout of the financial crisis hit demand for its cameras and flat TVs.

French carmaker Peugeot Citroen cut its full-year operating margin target on Friday and said it planned to make "massive" production cuts in the fourth quarter after posting a 5.2 percent fall in third quarter sales.

And world number two truck maker Volvo posted a surprise fall in third-quarter pretax earnings.

Chinese Call to Arms

Authorities around the world have committed nearly $4 trillion in a variety of schemes including deposit and debt guarantees and taking stakes in struggling banks, to restore confidence to the financial system.

Seven French banks took advantage, requesting a total of 5 billion euros ($6.4 billion) in loans from a state refinancing vehicle, the refinancing body's chief said on Friday.

In Washington, the Treasury Department and bank regulators plan to announce as soon as this weekend the next batch of banks receiving capital injections as part of its bank bailout package, a source familiar with the Treasury's thinking said.

European leaders wants China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, to help shape global financial reforms.


   

"There was large agreement that such answers must be found internationally," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing. "I think China will make its contribution to the stabilisation of the world economy."

Hu had earlier said the outlook was "grim and complicated." Leaders of the world's major industrial nations and other big economies will discuss the crisis at a special summit on Nov. 15 in the United States.

Chinese spokesman Liu Jianchao said his government was "actively considering" attending the summit.

The ASEAN group of Southeast Asian states agreed with Japan, China and South Korea to upgrade an $80 billion web of currency swap lines among central banks, to allow a country plunging into a currency crisis to rapidly call up financial firepower.

IMF Poised

The International Monetary Fund is hurrying to approve by early November a package allowing certain emerging economies exchange their currencies for U.S. dollars to ease short-term credit strains, officials familiar with the plans said.

The so-called liquidity swap facility would be available to a group of pre-selected "top tier" emerging market countries -- those that are well-run but may be having difficulties obtaining credit, the officials told Reuters.

So far, Hungary, Iceland, Belarus, Ukraine and Serbia are in talks with the IMF on economic programmes backed by financing.

Interbank lending, which froze for much of the last year as banks hoarded cash fearing peers might collapse, has shown tentative signs of thawing following cash injections, bank bailouts and interest rate cuts worldwide.

In London, interbank rates for overnight dollar deposits were indicated in a range of 0.25-1.00 percent, having peaked around 10 percent after September's collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut U.S. interest rates aggressively next week to help head off a sharp recession.

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mottoman
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« Reply #51 on: October 24, 2008, 07:12:17 AM »

The great wealth destruction has started!!!  Big Time!
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #52 on: October 24, 2008, 08:03:22 AM »

I told everyone that this is going to be a terrible quarter.

I think the market is over reacting.

You can't fight the tape.

I was in and then I am out.

I am in and out.

This market is like a yo yo.

I have been out since the 14th of October.

Too much uncertainty.

Prices are getting real cheap.

I think you have to wait until after November/December.

My advise to everyone, watch Squawk Box in the morning.

Get a little education and then have some big b____


Best of luck to everyone.


Kenneth J. Chadwick
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pacinfool
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« Reply #53 on: October 24, 2008, 08:10:52 AM »



    do you remember the movie SOYLENT GREEN.

    maybe that's where we are headed....i hope not

    but, i doesn't look good
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mottoman
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« Reply #54 on: October 24, 2008, 09:25:21 AM »

The unemployment rate for the next 2 years is going to really shock people.  It's going to take alot of time to correct this damage, and alot more tax payer money.
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Dolfan
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« Reply #55 on: October 24, 2008, 10:45:56 AM »

Allot of big investors, like Warren Buffett have called for "buying America on-sale".  Cramer thought the bottom would be around 8300, where we are now.  He told everyone to sell "20%".  He has guessed right & wrong several times.  Investors always think "this time is different".  That is the big question - is this time different?  Will we have a sustainable recovery - not just one-day or one-week or one-month or one-year.  Or is our economy doomed in the U.S.?  Is this a long-term trend, like Japan, which started in the late 80's?

With the election looming, I think investors are very worried about the "change" that's likely going to happen.  Investors fear that this change will affect the entrepreneurial spirit, which has indisputably made our country the great economic & social leader of the world.  Are these fears justified?  The market's resiliency on the downside does indicate the justification.  The American voter has nearly gotten away with 2 HUGE mistakes in the last 2 presidential elections & is about to follow that with another huge mistake.  These poor decisions will be difficult to overcome.
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We can produce more wealth, but we cannot produce more time.  When we give someone our time, we actually give a portion of our life that we will never get back.
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #56 on: October 24, 2008, 10:52:56 AM »

I told everyone that this is going to be a terrible quarter.

I think the market is over reacting.

You can't fight the tape.

I was in and then I am out.

I am in and out.

It's astounding how astute and clever your market moves all are ... after the fact.

Wiley E. Chadwick, market red boarder.
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #57 on: October 24, 2008, 10:53:58 AM »

Personally, the place I work for is on the verge of acquiring its largest customer.

We passed the internal audit.

Everyone and I mean everyone, busted their balls to make this place work.

If we don't get the business, it becomes very depressing.

We will know for sure by December 15, 2008.

The economy as a whole, is in trouble.

Watch for unemployment get over 10%.

If we raise taxes, this recession will last 3 to 4 years.

Raising taxes is the big nail in the coffin.

Places that run lean and mean will be the survivors.


Make the products better, cheaper and on time delivery, if not, you are dead.

Kenneth J. Chadwick

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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #58 on: October 24, 2008, 10:55:46 AM »

It's astounding how astute and clever your market moves all are ... after the fact.
Wiley E. Chadwick, market red boarder.

ClockFerry;

Post up your prediction.

Let's see how smart you are, you grammar school flunk out.

Kenneth J. Chadwick
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looking in
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« Reply #59 on: October 24, 2008, 11:12:16 AM »

Kenneth my good man. You just made up my mind for me. I am not going to any sale Sunday to buy weanlings.
Thank You [I THINK]
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I am just an old "Hoss" trainer, that has been raced hard and put away wet. 
As my Friend from Maine(Ora Stratton) says "There are horse trainers, and then there are real "Hoss" trainers.
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #60 on: October 24, 2008, 11:32:13 AM »

ClockFerry;

Post up your prediction.

Let's see how smart you are, you grammar school flunk out.

Wile E. Chadwick

I don't have to. I'm not the one past posting how smart I am and how great my moves were. That's you, Head Start flunkee.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #61 on: October 24, 2008, 11:34:52 AM »

Personally, the place I work for is on the verge of acquiring its largest customer.

We passed the internal audit.

Everyone and I mean everyone, busted their balls to make this place work.

If we don't get the business, it becomes very depressing.

We will know for sure by December 15, 2008.

Why are we supposed to care what happens at your business? Everyone wins and loses customers every day.
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #62 on: October 24, 2008, 01:02:38 PM »

Why are we supposed to care what happens at your business? Everyone wins and loses customers every day.

Why are we supposed to care what happens at your business?

I don't care what you THINK about "the business."

I care and the people who work here care what happens, that's all that counts.

Everyone wins and loses customers every day.

We take losing customers very seriously.

If I read your posts, it tells me how stupid you are.


Kenneth J. Chadwick 

 
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #63 on: October 24, 2008, 01:37:06 PM »

I don't care what you THINK about "the business."

I care and the people who work here care what happens, that's all that counts.

Do the people who "work here" read this forum, to see your pep talks? If they do, you might want to encourage them to spend more time on work, and less messing around talking about work on an Internet horse racing forum.

Quote
We take losing customers very seriously.

Everyone does. That's what makes your comments about what is happening at your particular business so meaningless and insipid.

Quote
If I read your posts, it tells me how stupid you are.

If I read yours, it tells me what a self-important fathead you are.

Answer the question: Why do you think people on this forum care what is happening in your life and at your business, that you must post it here?
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #64 on: October 24, 2008, 01:54:19 PM »

Do the people who "work here" read this forum, to see your pep talks?
Everyone does. That's what makes your comments about what is happening at your particular business so meaningless and insipid.

If I read yours, it tells me what a self-important fathead you are.

Answer the question: Why do you think people on this forum care what is happening in your life and at your business, that you must post it here?

I practice on the forum to reinforce of what I want to say and do.
Even here, practice makes perfect.

Why do you think people on this forum care what is happening in your life and at your business, that you must post it here?

ClockerTerry: You have two choices:

1) Read it
      or  doh
2) Ignore it

Your choice.
Apparently my posts picks up your curiosity that you like to read it and more importantly to respond to it.

Therefore, what I say stimulates something inside you.  trophy


Kenneth J. Chadwick


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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #65 on: October 24, 2008, 02:33:39 PM »

I practice on the forum to reinforce of what I want to say and do.
Even here, practice makes perfect.

When that horsepoop forum first started, I used to read it, and wondered why they made fun of you. Now I know.

Quote
ClockerTerry: You have two choices:

1) Read it
      or  doh
2) Ignore it

Your choice.

You start a new thread titled "Ken's wit and wisdom about his business", and I'll ignore it. Meanwhile, I came here to this thread to read about the stock market crash. Your mundane bid on a new job/customer, and your sanctimonious business philosophy, has absolutely nothing to do with that.

Quote
Apparently my posts picks up your curiosity that you like to read it and more importantly to respond to it.

Actually, your posts about your personal business pollute unrelated threads, and fool people into reading them.

Quote
Therefore, what I say stimulates something inside you.  trophy

Revulsion, yes.
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looking in
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« Reply #66 on: October 24, 2008, 03:40:47 PM »

Clockerterry ignored by 12.
I now make that 13.
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I am just an old "Hoss" trainer, that has been raced hard and put away wet. 
As my Friend from Maine(Ora Stratton) says "There are horse trainers, and then there are real "Hoss" trainers.
Moon
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« Reply #67 on: October 24, 2008, 04:11:31 PM »

Clockerterry ignored by 12.
I now make that 13.

You should ignore Chadwick too, then.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #68 on: October 24, 2008, 04:15:14 PM »

You should ignore Chadwick too, then.

Actually, I should ignore Wile E. I think I will. His simple mindedness used to be entertaining; now it is just irritating.
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« Reply #69 on: October 24, 2008, 05:12:29 PM »

I find it interesting that people are calling this a terribly bad economy.  I suspect that the economy will turn around before unemployment hits 7.5%. In France where they consider 10% to be full employment they would kill to get to 7.5%.
Interest rates are very low.  New homes 6% for thirty years.

I have taken significant paper loses but I am expecting to recover most everything within 18 months.
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« Reply #70 on: October 24, 2008, 05:26:24 PM »

Man, samstar is a commie! Comparing the US to FRANCE!?!??

Where is your patriotism?

 flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag

FREEDOM FRIES!!!

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« Reply #71 on: October 24, 2008, 06:00:16 PM »

I had to cut my post short because I got called to dinner and I don't miss dinner.
I poured a lot of money into the market in the last few months figuring we might be hitting bottom soon. The last few weeks  I have disciplined myself to re balance my portfolio instead of adding to it.  If I want to buy something, I have to sell another holding.
To me, buying stocks is a no brain er and buying stocks now is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity. As I am 65 years old,  I am a little more conservative then I used to be.
When you buy a stock, you are buying a company, not gambling on some fictional woulda, coulda shoulda.
There are plenty of opportunities for the risk taker, but I look for the following criteria.
Is the company making money?
Does the company pay dividends?
Is the dividend safe?
Has the dividend been increased on a regular basis?
Is the price deflated because of something other then the companies performance?
Is the management of the company sound rather then blowhards? ( I don't like Oracle because it's Ellisons personal piggy bank)
Is management dedicated to delivering shareholder value?
I like Dow chemical, PPG industries, Bankamerica, Pfizer, Merck, Huntington Bank, ACAS(American capital strategies), Alcoa,
I don't like speculating on companies that are or could easily be in trouble.  Airlines and Automobiles are good examples of these.
I don't like foreign stocks. I have made good  money on a couple of Chinese stocks and I got out of them, but they are both worth 20% of what I sold them for. I would advise that you don't buy anything that will cause you to lose sleep at night.

My mother would kill me for starting that many sentences with "I", so please forgive me.
 
If you own stocks now, I beg you not to sell them. The person that buys them from you will be getting your upside and you will be getting the pain.
 
If you can enter the market at this point you should end up in pretty good shape.  if you are not a stock picker, pick a good mutual fund, and leave it alone.

God bless this land of opportunity and happy investing.
 
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Kenneth J. Chadwick
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« Reply #72 on: October 24, 2008, 08:24:43 PM »

Samstar:

Jim Cramer on Mad Money, recommended Nucor (NUE).

I have some knowledge about this company.

Extremely well run company.

It's his dividend play.

I own some.

Take a look at it.


Kenneth J. Chadwick

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Dolfan
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« Reply #73 on: October 24, 2008, 11:02:08 PM »

To me, buying stocks is a no brain er and buying stocks now is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity.

When you buy a stock, you are buying a company, not gambling on some fictional woulda, coulda shoulda.

I like Dow chemical, PPG industries, Bankamerica, Pfizer, Merck, Huntington Bank, ACAS(American capital strategies), Alcoa,

I don't like speculating on companies that are or could easily be in trouble.  Airlines and Automobiles are good examples of these.

God bless this land of opportunity and happy investing.
 

Samstar,

The BIG problem in this market is predicting the next "safe" industry or company that will no longer be safe.  Most of the companies that you have mentioned have also been hit hard & most of the world sees them as very much Blue Chips.  I too have taken a bath in some very safe chips such as GE, Citi, Disney...
I have been a long-term holder (8 years or more) of each of these & now a significant loser.  These would never have been considered "speculative" in any other market.  The buy & hold strategy that made the last generation so much money is now a poor strategy - wiping out years of gains in a matter of weeks & months. 

No matter who wins the election, everyone agrees that natural gas is our future.  Have you looked at charts of Chesapeake Energy & UPL?  And these stocks represent our future, as a nation, in the world of energy.  The CEO of Chesapeake bought millions of shares at more than 2 times today's price just a few months ago, on margin & was forced out as low as $12 a share.

The stock market of today is loaded with gamblers who can control the fate of virtually any company via short-selling.  The shorts found that out this year.  They can do it.  They can take down anyone who hiccups & there's no way for you or I to know who's going to be next.  This is something that the "investor" is going to have to get used to - and it's a tough sell.

I've been playing this game for over 20 years.  None of us have ever seen a market like this.  So I still ask the same question - is this time different?  With so many predicting a rebound, will the majority once again be wrong?  My guess is that it's gonna have to get worse.  The fear is going to have to overwhelm us.  I'm not placing any bets that aren't short-term.  For now, options is the only sure way of limiting the risk.

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« Reply #74 on: October 25, 2008, 06:55:40 AM »

Have to disagree with you samstar, I believe the economy is very weak and going to get much weaker over the next 12 months.  We will eventually recover, but it will be the closest thing to the great depression that most of us baby boomers will ever see.  Employment is going to get way worse over the next year.  Most of this is the fault of this terrible credit crisis, related to the housing bust.  Our problem's are effecting the global economy which creates a really bad cycle.  I think we are in the beginning stages.  I hope you are correct and I am wrong.
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