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Author Topic: Woodward  (Read 901 times)
glahn
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« on: August 30, 2008, 10:43:17 AM »

Both Andy Beyer and "Little" Andy Serling HATE Divine Park and will be playing trifectas without him finishing anywhere. You know what this means, doncha? Divine Park will get the jump on Curlin and win the 2008 Grade 1 Woodward going away.

In other news, "Little" Andy's "best bet of the day" is #5, August Rex in the seventh race. You can safely toss this horse from multi-race wagers, and from every position in intra-race exotics (except maybe use him in 4th for your supers, just so "Little" Andy doesn't look like a complete dummy).

"Big" Andy's best best comes in race #4, where he thinks #1 Jump It is a cinch. Key him in 3rd place in your trifectas.

Beyer also referred to the Phipps/McGaughey entrant in the 2nd, #10 Offshore, as a "bum." Mortgage the house on this one.

As for me, I'm debating whether playing a pick 6 is worthwhile. I would of course have to single Lucky Island and Curlin as part of a cost-cutting measure, and then use backups to those two in pick 4s, thinking that the pick 4 with one of them losing should pay handsomely, and while the pick 6 would probably be gigantic, it would just cost way too much, because a couple of the other races in the sequence look wide open to me. Still undecided.

The (pre-scratch) average of 7.11 horses per race at AP looks unappetizing today. Monday should be sweet, though, with 8 grass races.

Another carryover at Del Mar, and it looks like a pretty simple one today. Should've saved my money from the big double carryover and "waited till the Pick 6 came to me."
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The Commander
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2008, 11:22:26 AM »

I think the Saratoga Pick 6 looks especially chalky today.

I may go deeper in race 6, not sure.


race. 6- #4 WESTERN FABLE 5/2

race 7- #2 SAMMARCO 5/2
          #5 AUGUST REX 6/1

race 8- #6 SPEED LIMIT 4/1
          #9 HELLO BROADWAY 5/1

race 9- #7 LUCKY ISLAND 8/5
         
race 10- #5 CURLIN 3/5

race 11- #7 TRANSIT OF VENUS 5/2
            #8 GROUND HERO 4/1



$2 Play($16)
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2008, 11:31:47 AM »

Both Andy Beyer and "Little" Andy Serling HATE Divine Park and will be playing trifectas without him finishing anywhere. You know what this means, doncha? Divine Park will get the jump on Curlin and win the 2008 Grade 1 Woodward going away.

I sure don't like the looks of Curlin's recent Thorograph pattern -- a new top (neg. 4.25) in the Stephen Foster, followed by a slight bounce (neg. 1.75) in the Man O War, followed by a 7 week layoff...it's the classic 0-2-X pattern, where this is the "X" race. Anything can happen.

Two other horses that are fast enough to stay close to Curlin and have better patterns are Divine Park and Wanderin Boy; if Curlin isn't at his best today, the winner is likely to be one of these two.

And wouldn't it be just like Nick Zito to knock off another HOY candidate?
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edwarren
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2008, 12:05:39 PM »

A terrific race. I also have a problem with Curlin, one that I have privately communicated to a few others but these horses are on the order of statistical miracles and they can defy whats normal.

That El Cajon for example - Slews Tiznow defied the norm by winning after nearly a years layoff and I expect you might hear more from him because of it.
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glahn
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2008, 01:09:33 PM »

What's with the only 30-second delay between the late scratch and the start of the 3rd race? I had bet 2 to win and a 5-2 exacta large enough to cover my win bet. With the scratch of the 1 I was trying to figure out what the 5-2 exacta would now pay so I could bet it larger and wasn't able to before they were off, so I ended up a loser on the race.
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glahn
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2008, 02:28:45 PM »

Correction on that Del Mar pick 6 looking "simple." I mean, if I constructed a $4,000 ticket I think it would be simple and I'd have a very damn good shot to hit, but that's a little beyond what I usually bet, haha.

I do think Barry Abrams' filly in the stake is an excellent bet.
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glahn
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2008, 02:43:52 PM »

A crazy, but successful, ride by Prado got me through the first leg of the pick 6 with a single. 2,4,6 on main ticket, 1,5,7,8,9 on a very very slim backup ticket for this next leg. I think if Darnell W. Lukas' horse goes off at his morning line of 8-1 he's a pretty big overlay.
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glahn
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2008, 03:19:36 PM »

Slim pickins. 6,7 / 7 / 5 / 7,8 for the remainder of the pick 6.
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glahn
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2008, 04:07:28 PM »

I see some vulnerability to both Lucky Island and Curlin, so here goes nothing. My pick 4 goes: All / 4,5,8 / 7,8 for the remaining three legs. I also got a few extra ones using the two aforementioned so as to hope to break even if they both win.
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edwarren
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2008, 04:22:35 PM »

If C is 1/5 I'll bet the 4,7,8. or THE FIELD.

Otherwise ... nada.
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glahn
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2008, 04:41:09 PM »

Sounds like a reasonable bet, ed. How do you rank the 3 contenders? How would you structure the bets?
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edwarren
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2008, 04:46:19 PM »

I'd dutch em  something like this.

$13   win   1
$11   win   2
$11   win   3
$67   win   4
$27   win   7
$40   win   8
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edwarren
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2008, 04:48:07 PM »

or like this

$13   win   1
$67   win   4
$27   win   7
$40   win   8
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edwarren
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2008, 04:51:38 PM »

I bet the first one and I don't feel too good about it.  crossedfingers
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glahn
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2008, 06:29:53 PM »

I've had a tough time at Sar this meet. On to this Del Mar pick 6. I've got the 9 and 10 in here. In the 8th race I singled the 9; in the 9th race I singled the 10. I'm pretty well covered in the other 2 legs.
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