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Author Topic: Thoroughbreds vs. Harness  (Read 2314 times)
vcackerman
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« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2008, 08:38:01 PM »

i won at a rate of 94% last year do the math

Well, I know you bet different amounts, but let's use for the sake of argument that you were a 2 dollar bettor.   You'd win 94 out of 100 bets.   At your average price of approximately 2.15 (I'll say you get some 2.20 to show and some 2.10), you'd recover 202.10 out of your initial 200 dollars wagered.   You've won, but it's not that much to go crazy about.
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Dolfan
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« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2008, 10:37:04 PM »

As a gimmick player, I'm gonna get heat both ways. But, when their win bet finishes second, I never say, "Why didn't you bet'm to place?" ...no matter how good the place price.

When they finish 2nd it's painful, especially when they're 20-1+.  Still not as aggravating when they win & you don't cash!
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Tsunami
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« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2008, 07:42:15 PM »

If they say that when you cash, what do they say when you don't cash & your $30 horse wins? Huh

Rule of thumb living off the tri-key (as I do) is to always bet the front end of your key so if the horse does win and you don't catch the tri ........ you live to fight another race. That has always been my philosophy

 

The rest of the "winners" turned out to be  BSmeter losers.  I kept track for 3 years in-a-row.  The results were Jerry Seinfeld-like break evens - up or down $100-$200 at year's end.  Like kissing your sister. 

At least you had fun doing it  Grin

 trotter
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Tsunami
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« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2008, 07:46:35 PM »

Why is it that the Thoroughbreds have more attendance at the track, the handle is bigger, and the fans support it more. Is it because of the Kentucky Derby and the other Triple Crown races getting tons of publicity or what? Just wondering.

Good question ?

Most of what I have heard through the years is that Harness is "fixed" and this coming from people who have never been to a Harness race  Huh

How can you compete with that? 

 trotter
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trotter1
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« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2008, 08:34:46 PM »

Rule of thumb living off the tri-key (as I do) is to always bet the front end of your key so if the horse does win and you don't catch the tri ........ you live to fight another race. That has always been my philosophy

 
At least you had fun doing it  Grin

 trotter

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I agree but I will only bet the front end of my tri-key if it's 5-1 or higher at post time.  Often times the horse will drop to
4-1 during the race.    I mostly bet t-breds and usually staight pick-3's.   (Yes, 1 horse in each race).   The nice thing about doing this (usually $20 straight pick-3's--mostly southern california T-breds with 100K plus in pools) is that I only
have to win 3% of my bets to make a profit.   That's right--I can LOSE 97% OF THE TIME and still come out ahead.

Here's why:

Let's say average pick-3 payoff at Hollywood park (for say a 2-1, 4-1, 3-1) is $45 for a $1 bet.   When I hit, its typically a  $900 payoff.     If I play 100 of these bets over a 2 week period ($2000) I only need to hit 3 winners to win $2700!!   I don't worry about losing.  I KNOW i'm going to hit at least 5% of my plays.    I also bet them well ahead of time and LEAVE.   I don't sit there for 4 hours and take see my tough beats at the wire, (by a nose, etc)    I check the results the next day (or later that evening) and don't worry about it.   After all, I only need to win 3% of the time!!
« Last Edit: April 24, 2008, 08:44:23 PM by trotter1 » Report to moderator   Logged
Lockjaw
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« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2008, 09:48:30 PM »

Quote
I mostly bet t-breds and usually staight pick-3's.   (Yes, 1 horse in each race).

If any of your pick-3 horses goes off at odds greater than 5-1, do you bet them to win?
Or, does the "live to fight another race" strategy used with tri-keys not apply here?
Assume the bettor is sticking around to watch each leg of the pick-3.

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trotter1
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« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2008, 03:45:04 PM »

Sure, I'll do that occassionally.   Also, to clarify, I may only bet 6 consecutive races (out of 10 total, for example)
but may make 25-30  different $10-$20 straight pick 3 races on those 6 total races.   I typically would only need to hit
1 wiinning ticket out of 25-30 bets (maybe $600 wagered) in order to have a winning day.   What I'll also do
is play $10 doubles within the same Pick-3 races so that I can hedge myself a bit if i bring 2 legs of the pick-3 in but
miss the 3rd leg.   I will typcially budget $650  for wagering.   When that's hit--if I lose it, I'm done for the
day--I NEVER hit the cash station machine to try to "make it back".  Tomorrow is always another day and when you
only have to win 3% of the time you can recover quite easily. 

Now don't get me wrong...If you are a bettor who must be cashing a ticket--no matter how small the winnings,
this strategy is NOT for you.   However, the reason it works is that you are betting $10-$20 pick -3's/ Doubles.  So when
they hit, you are not just picking up a $45 payment for a $1 pick-3 but often $900 or more at a pop.   Also, the amount
being bet is relatively small  ($10-$20) so you are getting a big bang for your buck.  You have to have a strong stomach for this as you wil LOSE A LOT OF THE TIME.   You have to be able to see 25 tickets in a row be tossed on the floor as losers and be ok with that.

I am because the strategy works.  Now there is still handicapping involved so you can't just be picking random horses.
I like to find one race in the pick-3 sequence I can single and then work combinations around that horse on the other parts of the pick-3.   I will occassionally hedge a pick-3 and take a $2 pick 3 with an "all" in one of the legs and
2 singles in the other legs just in case a 50-1 shot sneaks in there.

Think about this:   If a person is just trying to cash tickets and doesn't want to "lose" on a pick-3 bet, he may
bet, say, $40 for a $1 pick 3 ticket which may have 4 horses in leg 1, 2 horses in leg 2 and 5 horses in leg 3.
Let's assume that when he does this, on average his $1 winning pick-3 tickets pays $55 (reasonable)

Now, things happen in pic-3's as we all know.   Let's say this person makes 100 of these same bets ($1 pick-3 ticket
with 40 combinations for a total cost of $40 per ticket or $4000 for the 100 pick-3 bets made over (let's say) a
14 day period.    Here's the problem with this strategy:

Because this person hates to LOSE a bet, he's spending $40 to only hit a $1 pick-3 and spending $4000 with this
strategy (100 bets) over a 2 week period.    With an average winning payoff of $55 he needs to WIN 73% of the time
in order to recoup his $4000 investment (before otb takeout, etc).  Guess what, he is NOT going to hit 73 out of 100
pick 3's (even with 40 combinations per ticket)   This is why most gamblers lose in the long run--they want to have the feeling of cashing a winning ticket and dont realize they're wagering too much per ticket in order to hit a winning
gimmick.

Now, using my strategy, with the same $4000 spent, I can make 200 bets of $20 straight pick-3s  and with an
average payoff of $900 per winning ticket, I can show a profit on my $4000 investment with 5 winning tickets
(2.5% of bets made) and 195 LOSING TICKETS (97.5% of bets made).

Hitting 2.50% of the time is a hell of a lot easier than having to hit 73% of the time, believe me.  When I'm throwing tickets away it's more reassuring to tell myself I only need to hit 5 out of 100 tickets to make a very nice profit.

I think this is what this forum is about--to share strategies and maybe get a different take on wagering that they could
use to help them make a profit.  This works for me but I do feel I have the discipline that helps make it work and do my
work in handicapping as well.  I feel having a strict budget of say $650 per day and NEVER exceeding it helps because it
allows each day to be looked at as a seperate profit/loss and it also makes you more careful in how you choose to spend
the $650 (or whatever limit you set for yourself), knowing that there is no more wagering for the day if it's lost.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2008, 07:05:32 AM by trotter1 » Report to moderator   Logged
trotter1
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« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2008, 07:07:31 AM »

I'll be out of town for a few days but I'll post my $650 in wagers for the Hollywood card on Wednesday of this week
to show my bets for a 1 day period using this strategy.
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supernaut
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« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2008, 11:23:59 PM »

More people bet the thoroughbreds because they ARE more honest. Or at least perceived to be that way. Out of about 30 people I used to interact with at the track, only two are left betting the harness races. Some quit altogether, but most have started betting the thoroughbreds. And all of them are happier.They don't have to worry about the driver who has ducked the last 10 races and now decides to cut the mile. They don't have to worry about breakers. They don't have to worry about drivers having front runners and now deciding to duck. They don't have to worry about the ridiculous hub rail rule.Rarely do they have the "wonder mile" some garbage can horse comes up with at least once a week.Then goes back to being the garbage can he was.They don't have to worry about some garbage can horse being assigned the rail by the race secretary, either getting in the way, or wiring the field at horribly low odds.They don't have to worry about drivers keeping their horse in the same class every week. They don't have to worry about the same horse winning 5 or 6 in a row in the SAME conditioned class against the SAME horses.They don't have to worry about the drivers giving each other a hole.Do some of the thoroughbred people cheat? Of course they do. But it's not as obvious nor is it as often.There are certain handicapping principles that they follow and they win consistently. The lone speed angle is a great one.But it is just one of many.In the end, it's up to the individual which they want to gamble on, but it's sure apparent that more people feel better betting on the thoroughbreds than the harness.
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trotter1
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« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2008, 12:41:27 PM »

More people bet the thoroughbreds because they ARE more honest. Or at least perceived to be that way. Out of about 30 people I used to interact with at the track, only two are left betting the harness races. Some quit altogether, but most have started betting the thoroughbreds. And all of them are happier.They don't have to worry about the driver who has ducked the last 10 races and now decides to cut the mile. They don't have to worry about breakers. They don't have to worry about drivers having front runners and now deciding to duck. They don't have to worry about the ridiculous hub rail rule.Rarely do they have the "wonder mile" some garbage can horse comes up with at least once a week.Then goes back to being the garbage can he was.They don't have to worry about some garbage can horse being assigned the rail by the race secretary, either getting in the way, or wiring the field at horribly low odds.They don't have to worry about drivers keeping their horse in the same class every week. They don't have to worry about the same horse winning 5 or 6 in a row in the SAME conditioned class against the SAME horses.They don't have to worry about the drivers giving each other a hole.Do some of the thoroughbred people cheat? Of course they do. But it's not as obvious nor is it as often.There are certain handicapping principles that they follow and they win consistently. The lone speed angle is a great one.But it is just one of many.In the end, it's up to the individual which they want to gamble on, but it's sure apparent that more people feel better betting on the thoroughbreds than the harness.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Much truth to what you say.  I'm sure the cheating in T-Breds (drugs, etc) is there but, especially with Southern Cal-
T-breds, you have very large pools.   Typically tri/exacta pools are 200K each.   Superfecta pools >100K regular pick-4
pools (late pick-4) of 600K (on Weekends).   With larger fields are many other variables to handicap (distance, weight,
layoffs, etc) it's easier to find true overlays in T-breds.   Also, in T-breds you will usually not find a horse that looks
like an absolute throwout on paper (i.e. horrible racelines last 6 starts) that will win like a monster (like harness).
(I'm not talking about cheap 5K claimers--anything goes in those races), I'm talking about, say, 15K claimers and higher.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's face it, when you're gambling on horses, you're taking a large risk.   I would just rather get a larger potential
reward for the risks I take--that's why I bet mostly southern california T-Breds--the pools cannot be beat there!!
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Lockjaw
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« Reply #35 on: April 27, 2008, 03:25:04 PM »

With the advent of simulcasting, live side-by-side comparisons of the t-breds and standardbreds, twelve hours a day, seven days a week, drive up harness racing's real and perceived negatives.  Why is that "racing in a straight line" criticism not a problem for NASCAR?
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Grinder
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« Reply #36 on: April 27, 2008, 11:22:11 PM »

More people bet the thoroughbreds because they ARE more honest. Or at least perceived to be that way. Out of about 30 people I used to interact with at the track, only two are left betting the harness races. Some quit altogether, but most have started betting the thoroughbreds. And all of them are happier.They don't have to worry about the driver who has ducked the last 10 races and now decides to cut the mile. They don't have to worry about breakers. They don't have to worry about drivers having front runners and now deciding to duck. They don't have to worry about the ridiculous hub rail rule.Rarely do they have the "wonder mile" some garbage can horse comes up with at least once a week.Then goes back to being the garbage can he was.They don't have to worry about some garbage can horse being assigned the rail by the race secretary, either getting in the way, or wiring the field at horribly low odds.They don't have to worry about drivers keeping their horse in the same class every week. They don't have to worry about the same horse winning 5 or 6 in a row in the SAME conditioned class against the SAME horses.They don't have to worry about the drivers giving each other a hole.Do some of the thoroughbred people cheat? Of course they do. But it's not as obvious nor is it as often.There are certain handicapping principles that they follow and they win consistently. The lone speed angle is a great one.But it is just one of many.In the end, it's up to the individual which they want to gamble on, but it's sure apparent that more people feel better betting on the thoroughbreds than the harness.

A darn good post, for # 800 Supernaut....and the only thing I can add, is that in racing......speed is good.....and the Tbreds go FASTER   clocker
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« Reply #37 on: April 28, 2008, 10:36:57 AM »

More people bet the thoroughbreds because they ARE more honest. Or at least perceived to be that way. Out of about 30 people I used to interact with at the track, only two are left betting the harness races. Some quit altogether, but most have started betting the thoroughbreds. And all of them are happier.They don't have to worry about the driver who has ducked the last 10 races and now decides to cut the mile. They don't have to worry about breakers. They don't have to worry about drivers having front runners and now deciding to duck. They don't have to worry about the ridiculous hub rail rule.Rarely do they have the "wonder mile" some garbage can horse comes up with at least once a week.Then goes back to being the garbage can he was.They don't have to worry about some garbage can horse being assigned the rail by the race secretary, either getting in the way, or wiring the field at horribly low odds.They don't have to worry about drivers keeping their horse in the same class every week. They don't have to worry about the same horse winning 5 or 6 in a row in the SAME conditioned class against the SAME horses.They don't have to worry about the drivers giving each other a hole.Do some of the thoroughbred people cheat? Of course they do. But it's not as obvious nor is it as often.There are certain handicapping principles that they follow and they win consistently. The lone speed angle is a great one.But it is just one of many.In the end, it's up to the individual which they want to gamble on, but it's sure apparent that more people feel better betting on the thoroughbreds than the harness.


I disagree with the logic people use for not betting harness racing compared to t-breds and will lay out my reasons for and against both breeds.

1.I have been betting both for over 30 yrs and have been beat/screwed out of money equally as well by both jockeys and drivers.How is it that a horse can have traffic trouble in A 1 1/2 mile turf race with only 6 horses in it ?.
2.People complain they can't handicap the harness because it is too difficult.It is IMO even easier,99% of the races run in harness are 1 mile long.IMO the people who say that can't cap t-breds either.
3.People bad mouth anything when they lose their money,they cannot accept that they just capped and then bet wrong.Top trainers in each sport have been suspended recently.
4.It is easier to bet the t-breds as they run mostly during the day and harness at night.People working the 2nd shift on their regular jobs don't have much of a regular life either.It's easier to sneak out and bet the t-breds and stay married. nyah nyah
5.The t-breds tend to have bigger fields than harness racing and it leads to bigger pools and bigger payouts which lures the bettors of any breed.
6.There is a reason THE MEADOWLANDS HARNESS has been successful IMO.They run top horses for big money which in turn lures the bettors that creates big pools.Their P-4 pools are bigger than the majority of t-bred tracks for a reason.

I give trotter1 credit for coming up with something that works for him and sticking to it.Once simulcasting opened up everything for everyone I stopped playing the smaller tracks and focused on a few.When they installed polytrack that cut my play down to just to turf racing at some tracks.If they ever install poly at CD I will quit t-breds altogether.

IMO,The Meadowlands Harness should be the easiest track to cap.They run the longest meet of any breed which means you should be able to follow the form cycles and any other patterns that develop.They run for the most money and have the best horses which run truer to form than the cheap ones.

No matter what you enjoy Good Luck !

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Dolfan
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« Reply #38 on: April 28, 2008, 11:03:15 AM »


I disagree with the logic people use for not betting harness racing compared to t-breds and will lay out my reasons for and against both breeds.

1.I have been betting both for over 30 yrs and have been beat/screwed out of money equally as well by both jockeys and drivers.How is it that a horse can have traffic trouble in A 1 1/2 mile turf race with only 6 horses in it ?.
2.People complain they can't handicap the harness because it is too difficult.It is IMO even easier,99% of the races run in harness are 1 mile long.IMO the people who say that can't cap t-breds either.
3.People bad mouth anything when they lose their money,they cannot accept that they just capped and then bet wrong.Top trainers in each sport have been suspended recently.
4.It is easier to bet the t-breds as they run mostly during the day and harness at night.People working the 2nd shift on their regular jobs don't have much of a regular life either.It's easier to sneak out and bet the t-breds and stay married. nyah nyah
5.The t-breds tend to have bigger fields than harness racing and it leads to bigger pools and bigger payouts which lures the bettors of any breed.
6.There is a reason THE MEADOWLANDS HARNESS has been successful IMO.They run top horses for big money which in turn lures the bettors that creates big pools.Their P-4 pools are bigger than the majority of t-bred tracks for a reason.

I give trotter1 credit for coming up with something that works for him and sticking to it.Once simulcasting opened up everything for everyone I stopped playing the smaller tracks and focused on a few.When they installed polytrack that cut my play down to just to turf racing at some tracks.If they ever install poly at CD I will quit t-breds altogether.

IMO,The Meadowlands Harness should be the easiest track to cap.They run the longest meet of any breed which means you should be able to follow the form cycles and any other patterns that develop.They run for the most money and have the best horses which run truer to form than the cheap ones.

No matter what you enjoy Good Luck !

 thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up
 beer beer beer

A fine post until your Meadowlands theory.  They don't run the longest meet because there are so many trotter tracks that never stop - Northfield, Meadows, Yonkers,...

IMO The Big M is the toughest to handicap.  In any given race there are 6 or 7 legit contenders, all with top drivers & the one who gets the trip may come out ahead.  Taking that into consideration, the favorites' win % at The Big M is too high to be a good track to handicap.  It is however, an excellent track to follow betting patterns - you can often catch the 15 or 20-1 overlay that has exacta or DD money, especially if they DON'T figure on paper.
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« Reply #39 on: April 28, 2008, 11:24:01 AM »

A fine post until your Meadowlands theory.  They don't run the longest meet because there are so many trotter tracks that never stop - Northfield, Meadows, Yonkers,...

IMO The Big M is the toughest to handicap.  In any given race there are 6 or 7 legit contenders, all with top drivers & the one who gets the trip may come out ahead.  Taking that into consideration, the favorites' win % at The Big M is too high to be a good track to handicap.  It is however, an excellent track to follow betting patterns - you can often catch the 15 or 20-1 overlay that has exacta or DD money, especially if they DON'T figure on paper.

I think the trotter tracks you mentioned do not run the same schedule all season when they are running as the Meadowlands does for 7 months straight.I am not going to look it up to dispute but if you are right so be it.

I also don't think the favorites win rate is too high (34%)at the Big M compared to others.What I will say is the favorites overall win price is better than at lesser other tracks.

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Goodfella
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« Reply #40 on: April 28, 2008, 11:35:01 AM »

Wins By Post Positions
Post Positions    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13
Starts    815   815   815   815   815   812   804   783   725   496   23   9   1
Win    88   80   72   105   120   94   83   70   54   39   1   0   0
Place    92   100   83   81   109   99   83   58   60   36   1   0   0
Show    84   89   91   91   84   92   91   82   51   44   5   0   0
Percent in Money
Win    10.8%   9.8%   8.8%   12.9%   14.7%   11.6%   10.3%   8.9%   7.4%   7.9%   4.3%   0.0%   0.0%
Place    22.1%   22.1%   19.0%   22.8%   28.1%   23.8%   20.6%   16.3%   15.7%   15.1%   8.7%   0.0%   0.0%
Show    32.4%   33.0%   30.2%   34.0%   38.4%   35.1%   32.0%   26.8%   22.8%   24.0%   30.4%   0.0%   0.0%
Percentage of Winning Favorites: 34.2%
Winner's position at 1/4 mile    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13
#    142   124   86   106   114   114   66   40   11   3   0   0   0
%    18%   15%   11%   13%   14%   14%   8%   5%   1%   0%   0%   0%   0%
Winner's position at 1/2 mile    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13
#    211   108   109   100   100   88   53   29   6   2   0   0   0
%    26%   13%   14%   12%   12%   11%   7%   4%   1%   0%   0%   0%   0%
Winner's position at 3/4 mile    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13
#    283   130   107   115   77   45   26   17   6   0   0   0   0
%    35%   16%   13%   14%   10%   6%   3%   2%   1%   0%   0%   0%   0%
 
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« Reply #41 on: April 28, 2008, 12:01:15 PM »

My thoughts -
1) The tbreds hide their dirty laundry better. Downplay positives so you don't even hear about most of them
2) Tbreds are more "prestigious" - sport of kings, huge tv packages to promote the sport, best trainers are well known, etc. so they have a much bigger following and bettors than harness
3) No artificial insemination make the stallions much more valuable, which leads to higher yearling sale prices, and thus higher values of their offspring which perpetuate the cycle
4) Things that work against the tbreds, but they still overcome them:
    a) Most races are during the day (when most people work) 
    b) Horses race far less often, so it is harder to develop "favorite
        horses to watch". Usually if you go once a week to harness
        races, you can watch a lot of the horses that you are familiar 
        with. It is amazing that a lot of the best horses only race about
        four to seven times a year.
     c) Related to b) above, the horses travel to different tracks more
         often
     d) Jockeys do not wear the same colors ,so it is harder to follow
        or recognize your favorites
     e) Meets are shorter than harness meets

Although the two sports both consists of horses, riders, and betting, the two sports are actually vary different
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« Reply #42 on: April 28, 2008, 12:03:42 PM »

I think the trotter tracks you mentioned do not run the same schedule all season when they are running as the Meadowlands does for 7 months straight.I am not going to look it up to dispute but if you are right so be it.

I also don't think the favorites win rate is too high (34%)at the Big M compared to others.What I will say is the favorites overall win price is better than at lesser other tracks.



The tracks that I mentioned run year-round.  You throw in PPK which takes a 6-8 week vacation in August/September & you've got at least4.  I don't know about RCR & I think Flamboro in Toronto runs year-round.  Anyway, there are quite a few.

I think that 34% is seriously high for a big track with usually every driver a real threat & often 6 or 7 horses that fit with a chance.  Compare that with say, Yonkers, where you can usually toss 3 out just on the driver, 2 because of the pp (although not necessarily 7 & 8) & then figure who's getting out 1st or 2nd.  That's got to cover a high % of winners & while the fav's win % may be a little higher & the fav's winning price averages lower, if you just don't bet chalks (like me), you've got a better chance at YR than the Big M. 

I've been through this before though - I sit with a small group who bets Meadowlands & Woodbine & their win % sucks, compared to mine betting Nfld & YR.  And none of us are betting chalks.  Then, when I chart exacta's or DD at Meadowlands or Woodbine, my win % is huge compared to them, it's always on at least 9-1 (usually more like 20-1) but I may only have a couple of plays in a night.  And when I hit, they look at their program & can't figure out how the horse could have possibly won.

I guess what I'm saying ultimately is if you handicap, it's easier to handicap a live long shot at YR or Nfld than Meadowlands or Wdb because post 7 & 8 are often ignored & people plunge on the chalks at YR & Nfld.  On the bigger tracks, post & drivers are neutralized to a certain extent.
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« Reply #43 on: April 28, 2008, 12:14:05 PM »

My thoughts -
1) The tbreds hide their dirty laundry better. Downplay positives so you don't even hear about most of them
2) Tbreds are more "prestigious" - sport of kings, huge tv packages to promote the sport, best trainers are well known, etc. so they have a much bigger following and bettors than harness
3) No artificial insemination make the stallions much more valuable, which leads to higher yearling sale prices, and thus higher values of their offspring which perpetuate the cycle
4) Things that work against the tbreds, but they still overcome them:
    a) Most races are during the day (when most people work) 
    b) Horses race far less often, so it is harder to develop "favorite
        horses to watch". Usually if you go once a week to harness
        races, you can watch a lot of the horses that you are familiar 
        with. It is amazing that a lot of the best horses only race about
        four to seven times a year.
     c) Related to b) above, the horses travel to different tracks more
         often
     d) Jockeys do not wear the same colors ,so it is harder to follow
        or recognize your favorites
     e) Meets are shorter than harness meets

Although the two sports both consists of horses, riders, and betting, the two sports are actually vary different

 thumbs up thumbs up  Absolutely agree on all points, especially #1, although I never considered the artificial insemination thing.
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« Reply #44 on: April 28, 2008, 12:29:57 PM »

The tracks that I mentioned run year-round.  You throw in PPK which takes a 6-8 week vacation in August/September & you've got at least4.  I don't know about RCR & I think Flamboro in Toronto runs year-round.  Anyway, there are quite a few.

I think that 34% is seriously high for a big track with usually every driver a real threat & often 6 or 7 horses that fit with a chance.  Compare that with say, Yonkers, where you can usually toss 3 out just on the driver, 2 because of the pp (although not necessarily 7 & 8) & then figure who's getting out 1st or 2nd.  That's got to cover a high % of winners & while the fav's win % may be a little higher & the fav's winning price averages lower, if you just don't bet chalks (like me), you've got a better chance at YR than the Big M. 

I've been through this before though - I sit with a small group who bets Meadowlands & Woodbine & their win % sucks, compared to mine betting Nfld & YR.  And none of us are betting chalks.  Then, when I chart exacta's or DD at Meadowlands or Woodbine, my win % is huge compared to them, it's always on at least 9-1 (usually more like 20-1) but I may only have a couple of plays in a night.  And when I hit, they look at their program & can't figure out how the horse could have possibly won.

I guess what I'm saying ultimately is if you handicap, it's easier to handicap a live long shot at YR or Nfld than Meadowlands or Wdb because post 7 & 8 are often ignored & people plunge on the chalks at YR & Nfld.  On the bigger tracks, post & drivers are neutralized to a certain extent.

The bottom line here IMO is you have found something that works for you and that is all that matters.I have found my methods to work for me and usually have successful meets at Churchill,Belmont and Meadowlands harness.Where I hurt myself is venturing to other tracks and just playing.The one thing that has benefitted me in the long run is the memory of horses I have used at Meadowlands after they have ventured elsewhere over the years.I have posted that I expect TOOK  HANOVER to have a big year as a FFA.I have liked this horse since he won a heat of the Holmes as a 3yo a couple of yrs ago.

GOOD LUCK AND KEEP CASHING !

 thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up
 beer beer beer
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« Reply #45 on: April 28, 2008, 12:37:56 PM »

If someone believes Thoroughbreds don't have just as much cheating/drugging going on as Harness you only need to look at the fields at Delaware Park......Tomorrow they only have 4 races and 1 Arabian race and this is at a place where the average field size has been 5 for the 1st 2 weeks of the meet and a nw/2 life Allowance race goes for $42,000 (more than a top level allowance race at a lot of tracks) and yet they can't fill races at almost any level......Why?Huh? Because they instituted steroid testing in Delaware as of the beginning of the meet and the thieving trainers are petrified to ship there and get caught......They should raid all the barns of the people who usually ship there and haven't this year.......Who wouldnt want to race against 5 horse fields for huge money?Huh Unless they were hiding something
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« Reply #46 on: April 28, 2008, 01:03:05 PM »

balmoral buddy you really answered my question well as to why the Thouroughbreds draw better than the harness races. Thanks for the response to the question.
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« Reply #47 on: April 28, 2008, 01:09:10 PM »

If someone believes Thoroughbreds don't have just as much cheating/drugging going on as Harness you only need to look at the fields at Delaware Park......Tomorrow they only have 4 races and 1 Arabian race and this is at a place where the average field size has been 5 for the 1st 2 weeks of the meet and a nw/2 life Allowance race goes for $42,000 (more than a top level allowance race at a lot of tracks) and yet they can't fill races at almost any level......Why?Huh? Because they instituted steroid testing in Delaware as of the beginning of the meet and the thieving trainers are petrified to ship there and get caught......They should raid all the barns of the people who usually ship there and haven't this year.......Who wouldnt want to race against 5 horse fields for huge money?Huh Unless they were hiding something

-------------------------------------------------

I was wondering about the short fields and few races at Delaware.  Is that really the reason?  I would think that there would be other trainers from around the area that would be thrilled to ship in to fill the cards for that kind of money.
I think 5K claimers go for 12K purses there.
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