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Author Topic: World's Largest Derby Party???  (Read 5946 times)
Horse Voice
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« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2008, 10:12:14 PM »

Arlington's capacity to handle a really big crowd is poor. Anything over 20,000 and it is quite uncomfortable and processes start breaking down. The 25,000 and up ones, thankfully few, you really don't want to be there.

My AP boycott is going on...9 years? It was no different before RLD closed the place -- big days sucked back then, too.

No place to sit if you came in gen'l admission. Couldn't get a bet in. Out of beer after the 5th or 6th race. Long-ass lines to use the toilet. God help you if a SAM jammed up on you -- you were SCREWED.

Sound familiar, AP huggers?
 
That is the basis of my "jab" at this idiotic "World's Largest Derby Party" business -- if you REALLY knew AP, you wouldn't want to be part of their "largest" anything.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2008, 10:13:35 PM »

Keeneland will be tough to beat:
Last year Hollywood 14,265, Belmont 14,858, Lone Star 15,961
 

I was right about Keeneland.

 thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up thumbs up
 beer beer beer
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big wally
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« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2008, 10:21:27 PM »

To say AP's weekday crowds are are around 1500 defies logic when many days they handled over 300K no way is per captia betting over $200 a day on AP Races.. in May the crowds may be that Small not in the summer...

Not sure what the argument is but Hawthorne on-track numbers continue to disappoint.. Field size has been pathetic and have not really improved much since March (this also spells doom for AP) they have two weeks to improve on this

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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2008, 07:17:38 AM »

...and yours are manufactured.

"On-track handle and attendance are correlated with one another to some extent"? Got any "facts" to back up that ridiculous statement, chief? Or did you hear it from a teller in Hodgkins who read a mystical report that none of us can see?

You call out others for not supplying hard facts, and then just make up numbers to fit your arguments. Give it a rest -- you're not impressing anybody here.

You really are showing your ignorance now. Of course handle and attendance are some what tied. More people coming into a building will result in greater likelyhood of more handle. That is why there are per capita handles figures, and that is why your 1,000 - 1,500 number for midweek is inaccurate further supported by Big Wally. I guess I'm going to have to connect the dots for you again...

Using the 2006 CDI release I posted earlier.... On-track handle was $46,215,951 and attendance 655,788. Divide handle, by number of people and you get an average of about $70 per head. Take an on-track handle of $250,000, divide by $70 and you get a projected attendance of 3,571.

Not 100 percent accurate, but certainly more accurate than "Not from what I was seeing on the TV monitors".

There is some truth to what Clockerterry says, I'm sure there are some bad week days at AP, but the average midweek crowd is better than Hawthorne's best days and that was the point.

I've been to AP for Mother's Day and Million. I was at Mother's Day last year and it was packed, don't no official numbers, but it seemed like a Million Day crowd to me. Were lines longer, yes, but the lines were no different to what I've experienced at other sports venues. They moved, I didn't get shut out, and I ate, and I definitely drank. No shortages any time I've been. Hey if the expectation is for the lines to be short for everything then this sport really doesn't have a hope in hell now does it. Have you ever waited in line at the UC or Soldier field for food? Those are long lines (and lines I've never seen or experienced at AP), but you don't hear Bears, Bulls or Blackhawks fans boycotting because of it.
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Moon
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« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2008, 08:39:31 AM »

Haha! Don't forget that many people who come to Arlington (ESPECIALLY on Wednesday!) aren't betting at all! Those darn knitters and babysitters and PICKNICKERS!

So, attendance wise, if they get even a semi-decent handle, there's a lot of people there!

Horse Voice is right, though - I'll never go to a "big" day (Father's Day, Mother's Day, Derby Day, Million Day, etc) at Arlington again - it's not worth the hassle. Surprisingly, the Arlington Breeders Cup was well done and no problems. But they did ban strollers and baby buggies and pretty much everyone was there to bet on the horses, because it cost a lot of money to get in.
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2008, 12:22:37 PM »

2007 Arlington average daily attendance figures:

Sundays = 11,500
Holidays (2 Mondays and 1 Wednesday) = 13,477
Wednesdays (not including 7/4) = 3930
Thursdays = 4241
Fridays = 8040
Saturdays = 10,420 (includes 21,117 on Derby Day)
Overall = 8163
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2008, 12:37:24 PM »

2007 Arlington average daily attendance figures:

Ahh, so the numbers *do* exist.
 
Care to tell us where and how you got these numbers, Earl?
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Moon
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« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2008, 12:40:12 PM »

It's just as I thought, too. Sunday is the busiest day in terms of attendance, but I'll bet it's WAY below in terms of handle on-track.

Baby buggies!! PICKNICKERS!!
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Earl Sande
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« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2008, 02:13:46 PM »


Ahh, so the numbers *do* exist.
 
Care to tell us where and how you got these numbers, Earl?

I have friends in low places!
 beer
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2008, 02:17:03 PM »

I have friends in low places!

Oh...you know fnlfurlong's teller in Hodgkins, too?
 
I gotta meet this teller -- he's got some GREAT inside dope!

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Earl Sande
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« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2008, 02:55:24 PM »

No, not the Hodgkins teller; a guy in the cleanup crew at Quad City Downs!
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2008, 06:37:49 PM »

2007 Arlington average daily attendance figures:

Sundays = 11,500
Holidays (2 Mondays and 1 Wednesday) = 13,477
Wednesdays (not including 7/4) = 3930
Thursdays = 4241
Fridays = 8040
Saturdays = 10,420 (includes 21,117 on Derby Day)
Overall = 8163


So my calculations weren't far off. And I bet that Hodgkins teller has more credibility than you do Horse Voice, because the numbers sure suggest so.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2008, 06:43:33 PM »

So my calculations weren't far off. And I bet that Hodgkins teller has more credibility than you do Horse Voice, because the numbers sure suggest so.

Um...Earl said he got those numbers from a cleanup crew guy at Quad City Downs.

Read the entire thread next time, then make a fool out of yourself.
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2008, 06:59:24 PM »

Um...Earl said he got those numbers from a cleanup crew guy at Quad City Downs.

Read the entire thread next time, then make a fool out of yourself.

I did read it. But those numbers are hardly that unimaginable. Still clean up guy at QC Downs trumps what you see on TV.

Earl... care to defend your source? If he's reliable, may be he could shed some light on the handle numbers at Oakbrook Terrace and prove that they are down 26-34 percent as I suggested previously.
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General Powell
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« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2008, 07:01:19 PM »

Not from what I was seeing on the TV monitors then. It probably breaks down more like this:
 
Sat & Sunday: ~ 12 - 13,000 each day
Friday: ~7,000 - 8,000 (2,000 bettors and 6,000 there for after work drinks)
Wed & Thurs: 1,000 to 1,500 either day...and that's generous
The tough thing about AP attendence is accounting for group sales. On some days that goes as high as 2600 or more. Those people are normally invisible, either in the suites on 5 or one of the other rooms, or out in the tent. Thus while the walk in attendence may be what HV says, the total attendence , at least weds-fri, is somewhat higher.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2008, 07:07:34 PM »

The tough thing about AP attendence is accounting for group sales. On some days that goes as high as 2600 or more. Those people are normally invisible, either in the suites on 5 or one of the other rooms, or out in the tent. Thus while the walk in attendence may be what HV says, the total attendence , at least weds-fri, is somewhat higher.

I believe the official attendance #'s as reported by Earl have to include those people, because the tracks must pay an admission fee to the State for each person at the track, whether they actually paid or got in free, or whatever. However, tracks nationwide intentionally under report their attendance to avoid paying so much State admission tax.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2008, 07:11:17 PM by CLOCKERTERRY » Report to moderator   Logged
CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2008, 07:09:57 PM »

We've sure gotten a long way off the track of talking about the World's Largest Derby Party, haven't we? Thanks to fnlfurlong for always making a match out of things.
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Moon
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« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2008, 07:10:47 PM »

Good point, General Powell.

You can't see them on the tote board because they don't bet much, either.

I saw one guy come in with charts and handouts like he was going to WORK at the track. I gave him the raspberry!

WORK at the TRACK. That's wrong on so many levels.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #43 on: April 14, 2008, 07:11:40 PM »

Still clean up guy at QC Downs trumps what you see on TV.

Oh really? Take another look -- my estimates from what I saw on TV are just about the same as Earl's "source" for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday numbers. How's that for estimating? Why, thank you.
 
Also -- Earl's numbers are for 2007. We were originally discussing 2006, when attendance numbers were lower...so there's still a chance that the Wed. and Thurs. numbers could be closer to the estimates I made based on what I saw at the time.

Finally -- my numbers are *estimates*. I don't claim to know the cleanup guy at QCD, RLD's bathroom attendant, or some teller recounting a "foaf" (friend of a friend) story that he claims is based on some double-secret probation report...nor am I claiming anything as fact based on aggregates, averages, and other concocted numbers that are derived and contrived. Just for the record.
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Horse Voice
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« Reply #44 on: April 14, 2008, 07:20:28 PM »

Thanks to fnlfurlong for always making a match out of things.

No big deal -- he's strictly a minor nuisance. But until he posts something that contains actual facts (instead of third-party stories, averages, correlations, "suggested numbers" and the like), he's going to keep getting ripped, in response to his calling out other posters for alleged lack of facts in their posts.
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #45 on: April 14, 2008, 08:17:33 PM »

We've sure gotten a long way off the track of talking about the World's Largest Derby Party, haven't we? Thanks to fnlfurlong for always making a match out of things.

I was just defending my statements with numbers. And by all accounts, appear to be pretty accurate with those numbers. I didn't start the match. You guys were the guys who started spouting off, I was just providing the opposite opinion, and presented evidence to support it. Based on the facts, they may have a shot to claim the "Worlds Largest Derby Party". The Keeneland number of about 24,000 seems to be the target.
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #46 on: April 14, 2008, 08:25:22 PM »

Oh really? Take another look -- my estimates from what I saw on TV are just about the same as Earl's "source" for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday numbers. How's that for estimating? Why, thank you.

We weren't talking about weekends were we. We were talking midweek. And the difference between a 8,000 and a 12,000 crowd at AP on TV is visually neglible. Plus, it is no secret that AP gets around 10,000 on weekends.

Also -- Earl's numbers are for 2007. We were originally discussing 2006, when attendance numbers were lower...so there's still a chance that the Wed. and Thurs. numbers could be closer to the estimates I made based on what I saw at the time.

I presented a fairly decent case, using 2006 numbers to suggest that the Wednesday attendance numbers would have been around 3,600.

Finally -- my numbers are *estimates*. I don't claim to know the cleanup guy at QCD, RLD's bathroom attendant, or some teller recounting a "foaf" (friend of a friend) story that he claims is based on some double-secret probation report...nor am I claiming anything as fact based on aggregates, averages, and other concocted numbers that are derived and contrived. Just for the record.

Oh, so now, if I say that any number I post is an estimate now that gets me off of the hook. I've supported my claims by other means, and again, those means seem to suggest that I'm pretty close to being right.

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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #47 on: April 14, 2008, 08:31:59 PM »


No big deal -- he's strictly a minor nuisance. But until he posts something that contains actual facts (instead of third-party stories, averages, correlations, "suggested numbers" and the like), he's going to keep getting ripped, in response to his calling out other posters for alleged lack of facts in their posts.

Maybe you should consider posting actual facts yourself... You are the one posting estimates based on what you see on TV, and will continue to get ripped for calling out other posters. My numbers at least derived from some published source. Averages and correlations are certainly more generally accepted methods for projecting outcomes, that estimates based on what I saw on TV. How can you really defend that?
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #48 on: April 14, 2008, 08:37:58 PM »

I was just defending my statements with numbers. And by all accounts, appear to be pretty accurate with those numbers.

No, you were the first to start comparing Arlington numbers with Hawthorne in your "at least they know what a decent crowd is" statement. The conversation before that had nothing to do with Hawthorne, and still really doesn't. You are the one always making a stink about the "match out of things" arguments, but here you can't wait to do it yourself. Hypocrite.
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fnlfurlong
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« Reply #49 on: April 14, 2008, 09:06:55 PM »

No, you were the first to start comparing Arlington numbers with Hawthorne in your "at least they know what a decent crowd is" statement. The conversation before that had nothing to do with Hawthorne, and still really doesn't. You are the one always making a stink about the "match out of things" arguments, but here you can't wait to do it yourself. Hypocrite.


The initial statements of that post were later supported by numbers as too was that Hawthorne statement. The point of that statement was that you can't really rip AP for not being able to handle a big crowd, when the track that AP bashers defend so loyally, doesn't have big crowds to give a fair point of comparison.

It may have resulted in another match, but the AP bashing started well before I began posting on this thread, and alot of the earlier posts were made to get a rise out of the "AP huggers." And it worked. APCD Dan actually got the ball rolling.

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