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Author Topic: Derby picks  (Read 4246 times)
glahn
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« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2007, 02:32:54 PM »

edwarren:

It sounds like you're trying to pick a fight with me. I don't know the reason why, because I don't think I've done anything intentionally or unintentionally to hurt you.

-glahn
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2007, 02:34:31 PM »

glahn,

So you have never seen a horse put up a new peak performance and top that performance the next time out?Personal Ensign was undefeated which one would you call her peak perfomrance ? Your en tiled to your opinion and I won't waste my time trying that's why they call it gambling.  The only thing that matters at the end of day is whether you show a profit or not no matter what  logic you use.

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edwarren
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« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2007, 02:48:14 PM »

No, I'm not trying to pick a fight. I butt in when I should usually keep quiet.    Why would I pick a fight?
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glahn
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2007, 02:49:40 PM »

glahn,

So you have never seen a horse put up a new peak performance and top that performance the next time out?Personal Ensign was undefeated which one would you call her peak perfomrance ? Your en tiled to your opinion and I won't waste my time trying that's why they call it gambling.  The only thing that matters at the end of day is whether you show a profit or not no matter what  logic you use.



Oh, of course I've seen it. I've seen it often enough. But I said "probably declining form," the key being "probably." And I use this mostly with regard to claimers and layoff horses, and in conjunction with numerous other handicapping factors. But it's a fact that any athlete has ups and downs, and being able to predict such swings with a reasonable degree of accuracy provides a major edge. I mean, anyone can--and in fact, everyone DOES--look at the Form and see Horse A got a 92 last time while B, C and D got mid to upper 80s. Well, horse A will invariably be overbet. Of course, this is oversimplified, but that's the logic--will A run a 92 today? If not, why not? Do B, C or D have a chance to run a 92? This is more or less the crux of the game.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2007, 03:15:01 PM »

glahn,

The words you used in your first post were the horse would "NO" longer be in peak form and "PERHAPS" be in declining form.Now you say "PROBABLY"  you have covered almost all the bases the only thing left is "YES" he / she is still in form.Which one will it be ?

I don't propose to know what "EVERYONE" is looking at in the form because not "EVERYONE"sees the same thing and understands it the same way.
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glahn
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« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2007, 09:34:15 PM »

glahn,

The words you used in your first post were the horse would "NO" longer be in peak form and "PERHAPS" be in declining form.Now you say "PROBABLY"  you have covered almost all the bases the only thing left is "YES" he / she is still in form.Which one will it be ?

I don't propose to know what "EVERYONE" is looking at in the form because not "EVERYONE"sees the same thing and understands it the same way.

Hah. I think I typed so quickly I didn't bother to check what I had written, which was this: "the horse will no longer be in peak form and therefore perhaps be in declining form." Obviously if the horse is no longer in peak form he/she is not merely perhaps but necessarily in declining form. Add a "perhaps" to the first part, that of the horse no longer being in peak form and it makes sense, and is what I meant. Re: "everyone," of course I know not _everyone_ without exception operates the same way--what I meant was the public at large, the mass of people that more or less determine the odds. I thought that would be understood.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #31 on: May 04, 2007, 09:24:54 AM »

She's the lone speed, with a victory over the track in the same fashion and against many of the same horses.

That victory was the result of a golden rail trip.
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Kickers beat one-pacers almost every time.
CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2007, 10:12:37 AM »

My first 6 in order:

1. Any Given Saturday--Breeding and fast
2. Street Sense--Logical choice
3. Hard Spun--the bullet was perfect
4. Tiago--big run in callie.
5. Curlin--is fast; buts lacks experince.
6. Sedgefield--English Channel baby bro might pick up a share.

 clocker biggestal

Jeez. Watchmaker copied my first 3 hoss for hoss. a sure loser now.

 clocker biggestal
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Moon
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« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2007, 10:25:34 AM »

Put your money on Tiago, I guess. Watchmaker is the kiss of death.
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glahn
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« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2007, 12:36:34 PM »

That victory was the result of a golden rail trip.

There was no extraordinary rail bias that day, contrary to what most everyone says. And she'll get the same trip today.
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abrunks2
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2007, 02:42:55 PM »

I agree with Glahn.  There was no rail bias that day.  Look at ALL the races and winners, not just the post positions that won.  I have Anna for the Oaks and I'm quite confident.  Sounds like I'll be getting okay odds based on the amount of people who aren't playing her on here.
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Moon
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« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2007, 03:54:58 PM »

Here's what it looks like to me:

Stormello, Teuflesberg and NoBiz are going to come crashing over from the outside to vie for the lead, with Liquidity and Hard Spun joining in on the fun. Any Given Saturday could possibly be in that group, although I think he will be with:

Curlin who will have to pick it up or be caught in the second group with Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy, which is what I think will happen. I don't think Curlin will get the lead or be in that group.

Street Sense, Great Hunter and Tiago will be near the back.

It won't be a particularly fast 1/2 or 3/4 mile. I think it will go around like this, with Teuflesberg dropping out at the top of the stretch, Liquidity dropping out shortly after, then Stormello.

Now coming down the stretch, it's NoBiz on the lead, Curlin, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat and Any Given Saturday close and Street Sense, Great Hunter and Tiago making their move.

And down the stretch they come! The pace wasn't fast enough! Great Hunter, Tiago keep trying but aren't making up any ground. Street Sense is gaining, but not enough. Curlin drops out with 1/16 to go (YES! Curlin will DROP OUT!). NoBiz finally drops out. Cowtown Cat can't go with them! Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, and Any Given Saturday are dueling it out! The post position finally gets to Any Given Saturday and he drops out. It's SCAT DADDY and HARD SPUN to the wire! HARD SPUN wins it all!

Scat Daddy second. Street Sense up for the show dough.

/If it happens like that, I expect a call from the President of the United States!

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glahn
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« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2007, 04:14:29 PM »

I need to see the weather and track condition tomorrow. It's starting to dry out, but was still pretty gooey and there's more rain in the forecast.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2007, 05:35:48 PM »

Yup you're right there glahn. Wait until tomorrow because the weather can change everything in the Derby. Many a good horse has pooped out at CHD on an off track, and many a bomber has succeeded
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Moon
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« Reply #39 on: May 05, 2007, 10:19:01 AM »

The forecast has a 50% chance of rain, but all the rain seems to have passed.

Looks like nice, but cloudy day.

If the track is good or muddy, I may have to upgrade Street Sense (winner) and Tiago (a close show, maybe place), but for right now, I'm sticking with the above.

 maroon maroon maroon
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #40 on: May 05, 2007, 11:42:23 AM »

Here are my Derby picks:

$2.00 trifecta
2/7 with 2/7 with 4-5-8-12-14-15
2/7 with 4-5-8-12-14-15 with 2/7
4-5-8-12-14-15 with 2/7 with 2/7

$2.00 superfecta
2/7 with 2/7 with 8/15 with 4-5-8-12-14-15

$2.00 exacta
2/7 with 2-4-5-7-8-12-14-15
2-4-5-7-8-12-14-15 with 2/7

$16.00 box exacta
2-7

That's $200.00 bucks in bets. Win or lose - it's gonna be fun and exciting to watch!!!!!
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RunSuckerRun
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« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2007, 02:56:54 PM »

$100 WP 7
$20 EXB 7 8 14
$2 TRI 7 8 14 / 7 8 14 /  2 3 7 8 12 14 15 16 18

-rsr
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #42 on: May 05, 2007, 04:36:25 PM »

Well on this board I hit my trifecta and exacta, and because of my greed - I just missed the superfecta.

In my real bets I won $864.00 and I have a pending future bet win payout from the Oaks/Derby Double in which I bet it for $5.00
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2007, 05:01:22 PM »

Nice job Beau.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2007, 05:02:38 PM »

$100 WP 7
$20 EXB 7 8 14
$2 TRI 7 8 14 / 7 8 14 /  2 3 7 8 12 14 15 16 18

-rsr

Wow that's even more impressive than Beau! Nice job RSR.
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glahn
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« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2007, 05:13:21 PM »

From an earlier post:

"And here's the kicker: if I win, I'm parlaying the _entire_ thing into this: Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / Imawildandcrazyguy trifecta, a Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / all / Iamawildandcrazyguy superfecta, and the rest to win on both Street Sense and Curlin."

Close. Very f'n close. Although I think I posted that half of my entire wager was going on Street Sense to win (which it did), so it wasn't a total bust.
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Moon
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« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2007, 05:16:23 PM »

Yeah, well, I had Hard Spun as my latest winner and Street Sense singled (when everybody else was picking 5 horses!)

Haha! I think Pino on Hard Spun just got excited and went too fast - pretty game in the stretch.

Street Sense paid well, I would have though $9 tops.
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RunSuckerRun
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« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2007, 05:30:57 PM »

Terry writes:
Quote
Wow that's even more impressive than Beau! Nice job RSR.

I must admit that I pulled the WP bet back because I wasn't getting the price I wanted.  The exacta and tri were nice considering the favs ran 1-2-3.

Cal
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Moon
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« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2007, 05:40:42 PM »

I know, it's really quite disappointing. I blame it on the Keeneland Polytrack.

I'll go with one:

Street Sense.

I see no reason to have so many.

/Note: I have only TWO winners in 40 years of KY Derby Betting: Genuine Risk and War Emblem.

Ha!HA!
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2007, 05:58:31 PM »

Great hit RSR!!
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