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Author Topic: Derby picks  (Read 3841 times)
zooropa34
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« on: May 02, 2007, 11:52:42 PM »

I figure this thread would get started sooner or later so i figure I'll start one.  As someone who has only been following the sport for just under two years(Although a lot of people who meet me think otherwise do to the amount ive researched some of the history of the sport) and certainly no expert handicapper, i figure the best way to tackle the derby is to just make my selections right away.  If they come in, great, if not, no harm done.  I don't bet enough to do any harm.  This is just such a great race to take a chance on as you never know whos gonna like the distance, get a good trip, etc.

So heres what I plan to play on Saturday, I'm sure you'll all think im nuts, but whatever.

WPS 6 Cowtown Cat
EX BOX 6,7 Street Sense, 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz, 15 Tiago
TRI 6/7,15/7,12,15

Not sure why I like Cowtown Cat so much, but Jara seems to show up in the big ones, and it wouldn't shock me if one of the Pletcher underdogs scores at a price.  However, I'm certain this will be wrong.  Good Luck to all.
Keith

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The Commander
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2007, 01:15:03 AM »

Cowtown Cat does have a 106 Beyer.....
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cashman
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2007, 02:33:12 AM »

great hunter  with strret sense and nobiz like shobiz
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nwaryas
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2007, 06:53:56 AM »

Tiago will win.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2007, 07:26:11 AM »


The Commander,
Coaltown Cat does NOT have a 106 BEYER only STREET SENSE has a 106 or higher,the second highest is 103.

Keith,
If your certain your certain your choices are wrong pick something and stick with it.

The best part of picking the winner in this race is the bragging rights the 2nd thing is cashing the ticket.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2007, 08:12:43 AM »

My first 6 in order:

1. Any Given Saturday--Breeding and fast
2. Street Sense--Logical choice
3. Hard Spun--the bullet was perfect
4. Tiago--big run in callie.
5. Curlin--is fast; buts lacks experince.
6. Sedgefield--English Channel baby bro might pick up a share.

 clocker biggestal
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Moon
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2007, 08:33:40 AM »

If you throw out the 108 that Street Sense earned at the BC (those are always over-rated, IMHO), no horse has a Beyer higher than 103 and there are VERY few over 100 - 10, if my count is correct.

Part of that may be due to Polytrack, but this is still a pretty slow group. Probably no BC Classic winners will come out of the Derby this year.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2007, 09:04:16 AM »

If you throw out the 108 that Street Sense earned at the BC (those are always over-rated, IMHO), no horse has a Beyer higher than 103 and there are VERY few over 100 - 10, if my count is correct.

Part of that may be due to Polytrack, but this is still a pretty slow group. Probably no BC Classic winners will come out of the Derby this year.

STREETSENSE could very well be a super horse, we won't know till its time to put on the tavern shoes on saturday night. if he wins the derby, and it is his to loose; he lives at CD, trains like a fright train on the stretch, and sleeps in his home hay the night before, listening to the same birds he has listened to for the past months  chicken and seeing the same squirrels he has seen since the spring started.  rat Curlin, likewise could be something special, noone knows his top.
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The Commander
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2007, 09:05:08 AM »

The Commander,
Coaltown Cat does NOT have a 106 BEYER only STREET SENSE has a 106 or higher,the second highest is 103.


My bad, I Was looking at the Speed Figs on Brisnet. They gave him a 106 for the Illinois Derby.
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glahn
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2007, 09:25:37 AM »

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2007, 09:37:46 AM »

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2007, 09:39:12 AM »

Tiago will win.

put your money wher your type is..


so i can collect it later in the day, lol... beer
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glahn
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2007, 09:45:39 AM »

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.

There are two horses from CA (one from Baffert and the other from O'Neill) with stalker/presser speed. Anna should be clear by over a length setting leisurely fractions unless one of these two decides to run with her. Other than that, everyone is a stalker/closer, including Rags to Riches.

2 units Anna-Cotton Blossom
6 units Anna-Octave
7 units Rags to Riches-Anna
20 units Anna-Rags to Riches
35 units to win on Anna
15 units Anna-Street Sense double
15 units Anna-Curlin double

Total of 100 units wagered.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2007, 09:56:18 AM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2007, 12:23:14 PM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.

I have a feeling you are correct.

anna?

 clocker biggestal
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glahn
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2007, 12:38:17 PM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.

She's the lone speed, with a victory over the track in the same fashion and against many of the same horses, and is in peak form. I very well may be wrong, but I think it's the only bet that presents itself in that race. And here's the kicker: if I win, I'm parlaying the _entire_ thing into this: Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / Imawildandcrazyguy trifecta, a Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / all / Iamawildandcrazyguy superfecta, and the rest to win on both Street Sense and Curlin.
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Moon
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2007, 01:19:56 PM »

If I get fired because I don't come in to work tomorrow, I'm coming after you guys!

Talking about the Oaks in a Derby thread is confusing me as to what day it is!

maroon

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NIATROSS
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2007, 02:07:58 PM »

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.
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edwarren
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2007, 02:19:06 PM »

Why did Street Sense race in KY instead of New York? I don't know, I'm just asking.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2007, 02:26:38 PM »

Nafzger and Tafel had never won The Bluegrass and Churchill has been home for this horse from the start.
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glahn
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2007, 02:27:44 PM »

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.

After you've seen it on the track, the horse will no longer be in peak form and therefore perhaps be in declining form and not worth a bet in the following race. Additionally, if you've already seen the horse having great races, the odds are so low that you will lose money in the long run and shouldn't bet him/her anyway.

I look for horses for whom I can project improved performance; that is, for clues hidden to most people's eyes that indicate the horse is worth far greater than the past performances and consequently the odds say he/she is worth.
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edwarren
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2007, 02:43:35 PM »

Can you consistently do that better than most people?
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glahn
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2007, 03:19:31 PM »

Can you consistently do that better than most people?

I don't think "most people" are doing this.
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edwarren
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2007, 03:29:27 PM »

That implies you're an expert, then?
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glahn
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2007, 03:31:41 PM »

That implies you're an expert, then?

No. It implies that my approach to wagering on horses is different than most.
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