I had it! I had it!

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Here's what I posted on a totally unrelated discussion list on April 25, but I think some other people read it, so that makes it okay for me to brag about it here:

Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2007 10:32:21 -0500
From: Terry B <xxxx@xxxxx>
Subject: re: Derby Time

Dean Barr wrote:

 >OK people......it is TEN days til the Derby.  Let 's cut the crap
 >about poly, talking heads touting that longshot at podunk downs, you
 >bet, who bet, tvg, hrtv, baseball on a horseracing forum, and the
 >inevitable p*ssing contests between listers( you know who you are)
 >and get down to the reason this list was created in the first place......
 >The Derby.  For such an opinionated lot we sure have become adept at
 >avoiding that one burning question, WHO WILL WIN?

Well, it IS still more than a week, and these clowns ARE threatening
to make it difficult for many people to even bet the thing ... but
good point.

I say Street Sense will bounce back from that somewhat dull effort
over polytrack. He was the best horse of the bunch all winter and
early Spring, but all of a sudden loses favor because of a bad Blue
Grass? Remember Thunder Gulch, is all I can say. Gets the roses.

Circular Quay, you can't ignore the owner connections that have been
to the Derby WC before, even if he's got the Pletcher gorilla on his
back. Layoff concerns.

Curlin I have to include in my tri, just because I was at that
Ark. Derby and that was an impressive victory. Everyone can say now it
was a weak field, but it looked a lot more competitive before the race.
Asmussen as a derby winning trainer, I don't know.

Tiago, always have to include a west coast horse, and he has a good
momma.

Other bounceback candidates include Any Given Saturday, and Great Hunter.
Then Hard Spun, who knows. Poor horse is probably as confused as
connections. Scat Daddy, I think he's shot his wad, but can't ignore
for the super as a closer.

Those are the horses I might use lightly, defensively in exotics, if
Tracknet manages to straighten up its act and I don't boycott and stay
home to watch baseball on TV.

[BeauNarro]

but that's 8 horses Terry...you never said how you would have bet them, so a $1.00 8 horse box trifecta costs $336.00 - the $1.00 tri paid $220.00

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All I really care about is I named the winner and all the tri horses, last week. I didn't make any real bets at all. I don't know what I would have done with those 8 in real life.

Note: Street Sense not an O'Dage qualifier.

[Moon]

Street Sense was a "qualified" qualifier, IIRC. The Odage didn't know what to do with Polytrack.

[CLOCKERTERRY]

Street Sense was a "qualified" qualifier, IIRC. The Odage didn't know what to do with Polytrack.

O'Dage says nothing about polytrack (or pace on polytrack  ). It says three things:

1) Must have finished 1st or 2nd in last race
2) Must have run Beyer of 100 or better in last race
3) Must have run that last race Beyer no worse than -2 from 2nd last

It is only about Beyers and finishes. Street Sense failed tests 2 and 3.

Now, it's possible the Beyer company failed on polytrack, but excuses have no place in an elegantly simple system like O'Dage. Do they?

[Moon]

I'm talking about what he said in the paper. He listed 3 horses as qualified qualifiers.

Odage is ridiculous, though, I agree. If you count all the horses he "qualified", I think you have 8. If you can't get a winner from almost half the field...

There are four qualifiers this year, and the top four finishers from the Blue Grass will be lumped into a safety category. But first, the 12 exclusions:
...
The caveat cavalry: Dominican, Street Sense, Zanjero, Teuflesberg.

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I'm talking about what he said in the paper. He listed 3 horses as qualified qualifiers.

He listed the top 4 finishers of the Blue Grass as "you don't know what they are" because the pace of the Blue Grass was slow. But how can you include all four horses in a system that requires a 1st or 2nd finish? And besides, Beyer numbers have no pace component. A Beyer is a Beyer, caveat emptor, or caveat neat-and-tidy system makers. You don't get to start questioning them if they disqualified some horses you happen to want to mention for some other reason, or the next thing you know, you'll be saying 98 and 99 horses should be considered too, because they had a little trouble in the race and that cost them. If the rule is 100, the rule is 100.

Odage is ridiculous, though, I agree. If you count all the horses he "qualified", I think you have 8. If you can't get a winner from almost half the field...

Then he didn't even use any Blue Grass horses!

Jim O'Donnell's predicted order of finish
Fourth: Cowtown Cat. ... Looked absolutely brilliant in winning Illinois Derby; will not get same sort of dream trip here.

Third: Circular Quay. ... Jockey John Velazquez had a choice of five Todd Pletcher starters and stayed with this Louisiana Derby champion.

Second: Curlin. ... Would-be superhorse should be compromised late by incomplete foundation, keenly unfavorable Post 2.

First: Tiago. ... Pace, race, position throughout should set up well for John Shirreffs and Mike Smith to reprise their 2005 Derby score with half-brother to Giacomo.

Therein lies a critical part of the problem for Kentucky Derby selectors. By the three immutable tenets of the Sun-Times' exclusive ODage system -- a system that has helped project nine of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners -- all four top finishers in the recent Blue Grass cannot win KD 133.

Or can they? Is there some statistical aberration that Polytrack races are contributing to that will be exposed Saturday?

The statistical aberration that was exposed is O'Dage itself, like its namesake dosage was exposed before it. I'm sure O'dage is Jim's little joke on the world and he's just having some fun, but as long as certain posters keep bringing it up on the forum, we'll keep kicking it around and having fun with it, too.

[Moon]

I think it's funny and fun!

I take it as a joke, as well.

[pamwaggy]

I don't know anything about O'dage.  But Dr. Roman who is the dosage king, predicted Street Sense.   His others were not.

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I don't know anything about O'dage.  But Dr. Roman who is the dosage king, predicted Street Sense.   His others were not.

Actually, everyone had Street Sense. That's why he went off as the race favorite.

Everyone but O'dage, that is.

[CLOCKERbiggestal]

Actually, everyone had Street Sense. That's why he went off as the race favorite.

Everyone but O'dage, that is.

any sensible hoss handicapper could not leave off Street Sense.

I could see leaving off Curlin (many did) but street sense. notin one hundred years.

  biggestal

[CLOCKERbiggestal]

O'Dage says nothing about polytrack (or pace on polytrack  ). It says three things:

1) Must have finished 1st or 2nd in last race
2) Must have run Beyer of 100 or better in last race
3) Must have run that last race Beyer no worse than -2 from 2nd last

It is only about Beyers and finishes. Street Sense failed tests 2 and 3.

Now, it's possible the Beyer company failed on polytrack, but excuses have no place in an elegantly simple system like O'Dage. Do they?

He's a helpful hint to all ; add between 7 and 10 Beyer points to a poly BEYER when comparing it to a DIRT beyer.

  biggestal