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Author Topic: Derby picks  (Read 4176 times)
zooropa34
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« on: May 02, 2007, 10:52:42 PM »

I figure this thread would get started sooner or later so i figure I'll start one.  As someone who has only been following the sport for just under two years(Although a lot of people who meet me think otherwise do to the amount ive researched some of the history of the sport) and certainly no expert handicapper, i figure the best way to tackle the derby is to just make my selections right away.  If they come in, great, if not, no harm done.  I don't bet enough to do any harm.  This is just such a great race to take a chance on as you never know whos gonna like the distance, get a good trip, etc.

So heres what I plan to play on Saturday, I'm sure you'll all think im nuts, but whatever.

WPS 6 Cowtown Cat
EX BOX 6,7 Street Sense, 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz, 15 Tiago
TRI 6/7,15/7,12,15

Not sure why I like Cowtown Cat so much, but Jara seems to show up in the big ones, and it wouldn't shock me if one of the Pletcher underdogs scores at a price.  However, I'm certain this will be wrong.  Good Luck to all.
Keith

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The Commander
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2007, 12:15:03 AM »

Cowtown Cat does have a 106 Beyer.....
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cashman
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2007, 01:33:12 AM »

great hunter  with strret sense and nobiz like shobiz
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nwaryas
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2007, 05:53:56 AM »

Tiago will win.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2007, 06:26:11 AM »


The Commander,
Coaltown Cat does NOT have a 106 BEYER only STREET SENSE has a 106 or higher,the second highest is 103.

Keith,
If your certain your certain your choices are wrong pick something and stick with it.

The best part of picking the winner in this race is the bragging rights the 2nd thing is cashing the ticket.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2007, 07:12:43 AM »

My first 6 in order:

1. Any Given Saturday--Breeding and fast
2. Street Sense--Logical choice
3. Hard Spun--the bullet was perfect
4. Tiago--big run in callie.
5. Curlin--is fast; buts lacks experince.
6. Sedgefield--English Channel baby bro might pick up a share.

 clocker biggestal
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Moon
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2007, 07:33:40 AM »

If you throw out the 108 that Street Sense earned at the BC (those are always over-rated, IMHO), no horse has a Beyer higher than 103 and there are VERY few over 100 - 10, if my count is correct.

Part of that may be due to Polytrack, but this is still a pretty slow group. Probably no BC Classic winners will come out of the Derby this year.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2007, 08:04:16 AM »

If you throw out the 108 that Street Sense earned at the BC (those are always over-rated, IMHO), no horse has a Beyer higher than 103 and there are VERY few over 100 - 10, if my count is correct.

Part of that may be due to Polytrack, but this is still a pretty slow group. Probably no BC Classic winners will come out of the Derby this year.

STREETSENSE could very well be a super horse, we won't know till its time to put on the tavern shoes on saturday night. if he wins the derby, and it is his to loose; he lives at CD, trains like a fright train on the stretch, and sleeps in his home hay the night before, listening to the same birds he has listened to for the past months  chicken and seeing the same squirrels he has seen since the spring started.  rat Curlin, likewise could be something special, noone knows his top.
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The Commander
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2007, 08:05:08 AM »

The Commander,
Coaltown Cat does NOT have a 106 BEYER only STREET SENSE has a 106 or higher,the second highest is 103.


My bad, I Was looking at the Speed Figs on Brisnet. They gave him a 106 for the Illinois Derby.
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glahn
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2007, 08:25:37 AM »

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2007, 08:37:46 AM »

Barring massive amounts of bad racing luck, injuries, or the like, there are only two horses that can win this Derby: Street Sense and Curlin.

If I can get even money by betting them both to win (what are the chances both will encounter severe misfortunte? Less than 50%, methinks)--that is, if they're both 3-1, or one is 2-1 and the other 4-1 and I bet 5 units on the former and 3 units on the latter, or other such ratios that project to a net return of 100%--the farm is going up for mortgage and I'm enrolling in school to get some more student loans and maybe forgoing buying a motorcycle and using that money and...

Also, I think the horse that the Guid is on has a shot to pick up the pieces and land a bomber super or tri.

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.
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Sir Blockheadd
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2007, 08:39:12 AM »

Tiago will win.

put your money wher your type is..


so i can collect it later in the day, lol... beer
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glahn
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2007, 08:45:39 AM »

i would have to agree, we all keep looking past these two like there on welfare or something. look into the possibilty of getting better value from these two by betting a daily double, oaks/derby. i am takin goff work tommorrow to go to the OTb to specifically make DD bets on SS, just to get the value. RTR is all that, i am told. i am told she is the best horse pletcher has, colt or filly. he was going to run rags in the derby, but the owneers have 2 in the derby already as i read pletcher say. th e owners are old fashioned, keep the boys and girls seperate.

There are two horses from CA (one from Baffert and the other from O'Neill) with stalker/presser speed. Anna should be clear by over a length setting leisurely fractions unless one of these two decides to run with her. Other than that, everyone is a stalker/closer, including Rags to Riches.

2 units Anna-Cotton Blossom
6 units Anna-Octave
7 units Rags to Riches-Anna
20 units Anna-Rags to Riches
35 units to win on Anna
15 units Anna-Street Sense double
15 units Anna-Curlin double

Total of 100 units wagered.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2007, 08:56:18 AM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2007, 11:23:14 AM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.

I have a feeling you are correct.

anna?

 clocker biggestal
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glahn
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2007, 11:38:17 AM »

The result of these wagers will be a minus 100 units.

She's the lone speed, with a victory over the track in the same fashion and against many of the same horses, and is in peak form. I very well may be wrong, but I think it's the only bet that presents itself in that race. And here's the kicker: if I win, I'm parlaying the _entire_ thing into this: Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / Imawildandcrazyguy trifecta, a Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / all / Iamawildandcrazyguy superfecta, and the rest to win on both Street Sense and Curlin.
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Moon
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2007, 12:19:56 PM »

If I get fired because I don't come in to work tomorrow, I'm coming after you guys!

Talking about the Oaks in a Derby thread is confusing me as to what day it is!

maroon

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NIATROSS
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2007, 01:07:58 PM »

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.
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edwarren
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2007, 01:19:06 PM »

Why did Street Sense race in KY instead of New York? I don't know, I'm just asking.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2007, 01:26:38 PM »

Nafzger and Tafel had never won The Bluegrass and Churchill has been home for this horse from the start.
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glahn
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2007, 01:27:44 PM »

I am not sure what you consider PEAK form but I need to see peak form on the track.She now has to face a 2 time G1 winner who very well maybe a superstar.I also don't see Curlin hitting the board.The horse is going to wilt under the pressure.

After you've seen it on the track, the horse will no longer be in peak form and therefore perhaps be in declining form and not worth a bet in the following race. Additionally, if you've already seen the horse having great races, the odds are so low that you will lose money in the long run and shouldn't bet him/her anyway.

I look for horses for whom I can project improved performance; that is, for clues hidden to most people's eyes that indicate the horse is worth far greater than the past performances and consequently the odds say he/she is worth.
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edwarren
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2007, 01:43:35 PM »

Can you consistently do that better than most people?
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glahn
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2007, 02:19:31 PM »

Can you consistently do that better than most people?

I don't think "most people" are doing this.
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edwarren
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2007, 02:29:27 PM »

That implies you're an expert, then?
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glahn
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2007, 02:31:41 PM »

That implies you're an expert, then?

No. It implies that my approach to wagering on horses is different than most.
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glahn
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« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2007, 02:32:54 PM »

edwarren:

It sounds like you're trying to pick a fight with me. I don't know the reason why, because I don't think I've done anything intentionally or unintentionally to hurt you.

-glahn
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2007, 02:34:31 PM »

glahn,

So you have never seen a horse put up a new peak performance and top that performance the next time out?Personal Ensign was undefeated which one would you call her peak perfomrance ? Your en tiled to your opinion and I won't waste my time trying that's why they call it gambling.  The only thing that matters at the end of day is whether you show a profit or not no matter what  logic you use.

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edwarren
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« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2007, 02:48:14 PM »

No, I'm not trying to pick a fight. I butt in when I should usually keep quiet.    Why would I pick a fight?
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glahn
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2007, 02:49:40 PM »

glahn,

So you have never seen a horse put up a new peak performance and top that performance the next time out?Personal Ensign was undefeated which one would you call her peak perfomrance ? Your en tiled to your opinion and I won't waste my time trying that's why they call it gambling.  The only thing that matters at the end of day is whether you show a profit or not no matter what  logic you use.



Oh, of course I've seen it. I've seen it often enough. But I said "probably declining form," the key being "probably." And I use this mostly with regard to claimers and layoff horses, and in conjunction with numerous other handicapping factors. But it's a fact that any athlete has ups and downs, and being able to predict such swings with a reasonable degree of accuracy provides a major edge. I mean, anyone can--and in fact, everyone DOES--look at the Form and see Horse A got a 92 last time while B, C and D got mid to upper 80s. Well, horse A will invariably be overbet. Of course, this is oversimplified, but that's the logic--will A run a 92 today? If not, why not? Do B, C or D have a chance to run a 92? This is more or less the crux of the game.
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2007, 03:15:01 PM »

glahn,

The words you used in your first post were the horse would "NO" longer be in peak form and "PERHAPS" be in declining form.Now you say "PROBABLY"  you have covered almost all the bases the only thing left is "YES" he / she is still in form.Which one will it be ?

I don't propose to know what "EVERYONE" is looking at in the form because not "EVERYONE"sees the same thing and understands it the same way.
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glahn
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« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2007, 09:34:15 PM »

glahn,

The words you used in your first post were the horse would "NO" longer be in peak form and "PERHAPS" be in declining form.Now you say "PROBABLY"  you have covered almost all the bases the only thing left is "YES" he / she is still in form.Which one will it be ?

I don't propose to know what "EVERYONE" is looking at in the form because not "EVERYONE"sees the same thing and understands it the same way.

Hah. I think I typed so quickly I didn't bother to check what I had written, which was this: "the horse will no longer be in peak form and therefore perhaps be in declining form." Obviously if the horse is no longer in peak form he/she is not merely perhaps but necessarily in declining form. Add a "perhaps" to the first part, that of the horse no longer being in peak form and it makes sense, and is what I meant. Re: "everyone," of course I know not _everyone_ without exception operates the same way--what I meant was the public at large, the mass of people that more or less determine the odds. I thought that would be understood.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #31 on: May 04, 2007, 09:24:54 AM »

She's the lone speed, with a victory over the track in the same fashion and against many of the same horses.

That victory was the result of a golden rail trip.
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« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2007, 10:12:37 AM »

My first 6 in order:

1. Any Given Saturday--Breeding and fast
2. Street Sense--Logical choice
3. Hard Spun--the bullet was perfect
4. Tiago--big run in callie.
5. Curlin--is fast; buts lacks experince.
6. Sedgefield--English Channel baby bro might pick up a share.

 clocker biggestal

Jeez. Watchmaker copied my first 3 hoss for hoss. a sure loser now.

 clocker biggestal
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« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2007, 10:25:34 AM »

Put your money on Tiago, I guess. Watchmaker is the kiss of death.
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glahn
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« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2007, 12:36:34 PM »

That victory was the result of a golden rail trip.

There was no extraordinary rail bias that day, contrary to what most everyone says. And she'll get the same trip today.
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abrunks2
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2007, 02:42:55 PM »

I agree with Glahn.  There was no rail bias that day.  Look at ALL the races and winners, not just the post positions that won.  I have Anna for the Oaks and I'm quite confident.  Sounds like I'll be getting okay odds based on the amount of people who aren't playing her on here.
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Moon
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« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2007, 03:54:58 PM »

Here's what it looks like to me:

Stormello, Teuflesberg and NoBiz are going to come crashing over from the outside to vie for the lead, with Liquidity and Hard Spun joining in on the fun. Any Given Saturday could possibly be in that group, although I think he will be with:

Curlin who will have to pick it up or be caught in the second group with Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy, which is what I think will happen. I don't think Curlin will get the lead or be in that group.

Street Sense, Great Hunter and Tiago will be near the back.

It won't be a particularly fast 1/2 or 3/4 mile. I think it will go around like this, with Teuflesberg dropping out at the top of the stretch, Liquidity dropping out shortly after, then Stormello.

Now coming down the stretch, it's NoBiz on the lead, Curlin, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat and Any Given Saturday close and Street Sense, Great Hunter and Tiago making their move.

And down the stretch they come! The pace wasn't fast enough! Great Hunter, Tiago keep trying but aren't making up any ground. Street Sense is gaining, but not enough. Curlin drops out with 1/16 to go (YES! Curlin will DROP OUT!). NoBiz finally drops out. Cowtown Cat can't go with them! Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, and Any Given Saturday are dueling it out! The post position finally gets to Any Given Saturday and he drops out. It's SCAT DADDY and HARD SPUN to the wire! HARD SPUN wins it all!

Scat Daddy second. Street Sense up for the show dough.

/If it happens like that, I expect a call from the President of the United States!

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glahn
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« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2007, 04:14:29 PM »

I need to see the weather and track condition tomorrow. It's starting to dry out, but was still pretty gooey and there's more rain in the forecast.
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2007, 05:35:48 PM »

Yup you're right there glahn. Wait until tomorrow because the weather can change everything in the Derby. Many a good horse has pooped out at CHD on an off track, and many a bomber has succeeded
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Moon
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« Reply #39 on: May 05, 2007, 10:19:01 AM »

The forecast has a 50% chance of rain, but all the rain seems to have passed.

Looks like nice, but cloudy day.

If the track is good or muddy, I may have to upgrade Street Sense (winner) and Tiago (a close show, maybe place), but for right now, I'm sticking with the above.

 maroon maroon maroon
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #40 on: May 05, 2007, 11:42:23 AM »

Here are my Derby picks:

$2.00 trifecta
2/7 with 2/7 with 4-5-8-12-14-15
2/7 with 4-5-8-12-14-15 with 2/7
4-5-8-12-14-15 with 2/7 with 2/7

$2.00 superfecta
2/7 with 2/7 with 8/15 with 4-5-8-12-14-15

$2.00 exacta
2/7 with 2-4-5-7-8-12-14-15
2-4-5-7-8-12-14-15 with 2/7

$16.00 box exacta
2-7

That's $200.00 bucks in bets. Win or lose - it's gonna be fun and exciting to watch!!!!!
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RunSuckerRun
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« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2007, 02:56:54 PM »

$100 WP 7
$20 EXB 7 8 14
$2 TRI 7 8 14 / 7 8 14 /  2 3 7 8 12 14 15 16 18

-rsr
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BeauNarro
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« Reply #42 on: May 05, 2007, 04:36:25 PM »

Well on this board I hit my trifecta and exacta, and because of my greed - I just missed the superfecta.

In my real bets I won $864.00 and I have a pending future bet win payout from the Oaks/Derby Double in which I bet it for $5.00
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2007, 05:01:22 PM »

Nice job Beau.
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CLOCKERTERRY
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« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2007, 05:02:38 PM »

$100 WP 7
$20 EXB 7 8 14
$2 TRI 7 8 14 / 7 8 14 /  2 3 7 8 12 14 15 16 18

-rsr

Wow that's even more impressive than Beau! Nice job RSR.
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glahn
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« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2007, 05:13:21 PM »

From an earlier post:

"And here's the kicker: if I win, I'm parlaying the _entire_ thing into this: Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / Imawildandcrazyguy trifecta, a Street Sense, Curlin / Street Sense, Curlin / all / Iamawildandcrazyguy superfecta, and the rest to win on both Street Sense and Curlin."

Close. Very f'n close. Although I think I posted that half of my entire wager was going on Street Sense to win (which it did), so it wasn't a total bust.
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Moon
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« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2007, 05:16:23 PM »

Yeah, well, I had Hard Spun as my latest winner and Street Sense singled (when everybody else was picking 5 horses!)

Haha! I think Pino on Hard Spun just got excited and went too fast - pretty game in the stretch.

Street Sense paid well, I would have though $9 tops.
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« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2007, 05:30:57 PM »

Terry writes:
Quote
Wow that's even more impressive than Beau! Nice job RSR.

I must admit that I pulled the WP bet back because I wasn't getting the price I wanted.  The exacta and tri were nice considering the favs ran 1-2-3.

Cal
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« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2007, 05:40:42 PM »

I know, it's really quite disappointing. I blame it on the Keeneland Polytrack.

I'll go with one:

Street Sense.

I see no reason to have so many.

/Note: I have only TWO winners in 40 years of KY Derby Betting: Genuine Risk and War Emblem.

Ha!HA!
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« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2007, 05:58:31 PM »

Great hit RSR!!
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« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2007, 08:06:30 AM »

I had the exacta!  MM
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