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Author Topic: KENTUCKY DERBY  (Read 1429 times)
race track phil
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« on: April 23, 2007, 12:39:58 PM »

             
               This is for all you double gaited bettors !

               Who do you like and why ?

               Do you bet the Derby ?

                                         RTP
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Dan Villeky
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2007, 01:08:21 PM »

I guess I'd have to say "Dominican"
Not the best credentials in the race but I was fortunate to have bet him at Keeneland when he won the Bluegrass. He should have (or could have) packed it in and gotten a decent second or third place check but he wouldn't quit and you gotta like that in a horse.
I'll give back a little of the money won earlier I guess  Grin   Grin
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trotter1
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2007, 01:53:41 PM »

I always spend $720 on the Derby for a $1 tri box.

I pick 8 horses and my son picks 2 (no matter what the odds
are).  I'll take a couple favorites and throw in some price shots,
along with my Son's 2 picks (usually 50-1 shots).

We box 'em all and watch the race.   I've done this the last
12 years and can honestly say I've won overall.   Now if
I just hadn't made the 1000's of bets in between each Derby
the past 12 years I would be ahead of the game!
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NIATROSS
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2007, 03:13:56 PM »


 Street Sense has done nothing wrong in his last 3 races and he going back to his home track.The win in BC Juvenile was no fluke

Last year was the first I missed in over 20 yrs.
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Gb
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2007, 03:23:51 PM »

yes I play and love it. I like No Biz Like Show Biz. Best part about the Derby is it is the last leg of a Million dollar Guranteed pick 4. No I Will use 5 or 6 in the pick 4, But I am Betting No Biz To win.
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Lockjaw
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2007, 04:11:08 PM »

I go to the track Friday and Saturday nights.
The Friday before the Derby, I make bets for my friends and family.
On Derby Day, we have a party and watch the race together.
Thirty minutes after the race, I'm on my way to bet the trotters.
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race track phil
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2007, 04:35:10 PM »

           
              I personally have'nt made a decision on the derby , I was looking forward to betting Ravel but it seems like every year my early pick and I mean early ends up not making it too the run for the roses . I think that someone should pay me to not predict there horse for the Derby !  I must jinxed them every year .  I thought Great hunter might be a play , but his last race even though he got in some trouble makes me wonder !  Trotter 1 its seems like the race has the potential of something freaky happening and that might be pretty good for your ticket . If I'm not mistaken is'nt Churchill still a dirt track ? I think that could play into the results , some horses that have been running mainly on the poly track might run good and some might run bad ! A tough one thats for sure .   I hope one of us strikes lightning ! 

                                              geezer    RTP
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cashman
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2007, 10:29:17 PM »

i like great hunter to take the run for the roses
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2007, 11:13:05 PM »

Street Sense.  He kept to the task while bumped in the stretch, and did it on a track that has done nothing but favor closers.

Best,
EW
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Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
Gb
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2007, 11:20:54 PM »

Hey Ed I agree it was probably imo, his best race this year, but he is a closer .
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2007, 11:24:17 PM »

Hey Ed I agree it was probably imo, his best race this year, but he is a closer .

He's trended towards closing, but, in that race, he was on point at the top of the lane.

Simply from a visual perspective -- and that's all I have since I don't really follow flats all that closely -- it was a great race.

Best,
EW
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Stick to Fantasyland pal, because you'll NEVER make it in the real world - TC
Gb
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« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2007, 11:25:26 PM »

Yeah normally he is a stone closer but with no pace in that race, he was alot closer than normal. I think this years derby is going to be a great one
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2007, 05:03:59 AM »

Although he hasn't beaten much --- yet --- Curlin is the most visually impressive 3YO colt I've seen this year. I was particularly impressed with the professionalism he exhibited in winning the Arkansas Derby. He rated more than kindly while stalking the early pace for jockey Robby Alborado, who sat chilly on him, never moving a muscle. When Robby clucked to Curlin nearing the quarter pole, he accelerated powerfully on command and finished strongly, running the last furlong in a snappy 11.91 seconds.

Curlin looked like a seasoned pro rather than a colt making only his career third start, winning all three with ridiculous ease. Having studied thoroughbreds for over 40 years, I am probably more impressed with the manner in which a developing young horse runs than with his actual running time, speed figures, etc.

Curlin has done everything asked of him thus far. Before last year's Kentucky Derby, a lot of people said Barbaro couldn't win because he was coming off a 5-week layoff. Obviously, they were wrong. And Curlin's detractors will say no colt that was unraced as a 2YO has won the Kentucky Derby since 1882. But as Barbaro proved, superior talent can overcome nearly any obstacle.

From what I've seen, Curlin just may have that kind of talent.

My concern with Street Sense --- also an impressive colt --- is that he's had back-to-back, gut-wrenching performances, winning and losing by a nose. That can knock the life out of a horse, and Street Sense is, in my opinion, even money to regress sharply in the Derby because of those last two highly-taxing efforts.

Also, I don't like the fact that Street Sense didn't change leads in his last race, a negative sign. And while it's true that some horses such as Alydar, a hard-luck but nonetheless outstanding 3YO, can win while routinely racing on the wrong lead, you have to wonder if he wouldn't have fared just a bit better in his epic 1978 battles with Triple Crown winner Affirmed if he had traveled on the proper lead.
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Dan Villeky
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2007, 06:17:49 AM »

Also, I don't like the fact that Street Sense didn't change leads in his last race, a negative sign. And while it's true that some horses such as Alydar, a hard-luck but nonetheless outstanding 3YO, can win while routinely racing on the wrong lead, you have to wonder if he wouldn't have fared just a bit better in his epic 1978 battles with Triple Crown winner Affirmed if he had traveled on the proper lead.
You have been paying very close attention my friend . beer  Grin. Grin
I missed it while at the track but my next door neighbor pointed it out as we watched a replay that same evening ( I still didn't see it ) doh  doh
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macdaddi
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2007, 06:42:53 AM »

isn't there a thoroughbred section here. take it over there
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macdaddi wins again what else is new!!!
NIATROSS
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2007, 10:43:38 AM »

vegasjay,

I will take that even money bet that Street Sense regresses on Derby Day.The horse has done nothing  wrong except change leads and I think he improves off the Blue Grass just like he did last year.He is more of a stalker and can be placed anywhere.He worked impressively this morning over the Churchill track which he makes home.

I am not taking anything away from Curlin but he has not been battle tested like Barbaro was last year and Street Sense has last year and this year.Too many runaway runners had folded up  after being pressured the whole way and faced the long stretch at Churchill.
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edwardwilliam
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2007, 11:04:41 PM »

Street Sense.  He kept to the task while bumped in the stretch, and did it on a track that has done nothing but favor closers.

Best,
EW

 thumbs up

Anybody else have a good day?

Best,
EW
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cashman
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2007, 11:46:28 PM »

had the 7 and 2  and 5 horses for second but not 8

should have bet him straight  wait till next year

like the cubs
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Jeepers
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2007, 03:11:14 AM »

thumbs up

Anybody else have a good day?

Best,
EW

You bet. Where else but in the Derby can you get a $102.80 exacta on two horses that TOTALLY figure?

Sometimes it's a chaotic clusterfuck, and sometimes it runs more to form. Either way, it pays, and tracking all the preps is like watching the NCAA tournament. Great fun and intrigue. Calvin Bo-RAIL must visit church often.

God bless Yankee Vinny and Marsh for squaring up my evening at the buggies.

Looking foward to what Saratoga John, Fox Valley Gambler and others might accomplish this summer and fall.

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momo
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2007, 06:39:18 AM »

i "keyed" the 16 horse. bet a 1 tri wheel for all 3 posotions as well as $350 win. suffice to say i wish i used some common "sense".
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machoo
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2007, 08:54:15 AM »

I had the exacta pegged pretty well.  Street Sense is monsterous on that track, and I liked the 57.3 work that Hard Spun had on April 30 even though the experts all said it was too fast.  $101.80 was a great surprise to me!  Glad I did not play the tri's because I would not have put Curlin in there as I threw him out.   Smiley
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