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Author Topic: Betting Practices  (Read 1849 times)
APCD Dan
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« on: December 27, 2005, 02:41:07 PM »

642/312 or 312/642, plus another exacta or two, maybe with the Pick 4.  So that is how you guys bet!  Is that really handicapping when you cast such a big net?  Go against me on a $2 exacta box every race with just two horses only (no other type of bets) every race and see what you do at Hawthorne!  That is handicapping, trying to win the most with the least amount bet or lose the least!  No wonder you guys get "juicy" prices, especially when you are putting out "juicy" amounts of money in a bet.

It is a little bit harder when you do not cover all the possiblities, isn't it?  Just  thoughts from a poor pensioned school teacher, who would rather bet on the surest thing in racing:  CD stock!
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off stride
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2005, 03:32:29 PM »

to each his own...you pays yo' money...you takes yo' chances... you have it your way..aka the burger king style..and others will try it their way...aka pari mutual wagering...
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edwarren
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2005, 03:46:12 PM »

642/312 or 312/642, plus another exacta or two, maybe with the Pick 4.  So that is how you guys bet!  Is that really handicapping when you cast such a big net?  Go against me on a $2 exacta box every race with just two horses only (no other type of bets) every race and see what you do at Hawthorne!  That is handicapping, trying to win the most with the least amount bet or lose the least!  No wonder you guys get "juicy" prices, especially when you are putting out "juicy" amounts of money in a bet.

It is a little bit harder when you do not cover all the possiblities, isn't it?  Just  thoughts from a poor pensioned school teacher, who would rather bet on the surest thing in racing:  CD stock!

 Dan, what is CD stock?
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off stride
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2005, 03:48:57 PM »

ED...CHURCHILL DOWNS STOCK...
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David
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2005, 06:16:10 PM »

Hasn't Churchill stock been basicaly in the 30s for the better part of a decade?
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2005, 09:57:15 PM »

Hasn't Churchill stock been basicaly in the 30s for the better part of a decade?

Between 35 and 45 the last several years that I have had it.  Was up to 45 earlier this year, then the hurricane hit at FG and the tornado hit at Ellis and it went down to 35.  Currently around 37.  Bought it at 32 and 34 and it has remained mostly above those levels since I purchased it.  Plus it gives me free admission at AP/Trackside and a small yearly dividend.  That certainly beats blowing a lot of money at the windows, just my $2 exacta boxes.
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edwarren
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2005, 11:48:17 PM »

Between 35 and 45 the last several years that I have had it.  Was up to 45 earlier this year, then the hurricane hit at FG and the tornado hit at Ellis and it went down to 35.  Currently around 37.  Bought it at 32 and 34 and it has remained mostly above those levels since I purchased it.  Plus it gives me free admission at AP/Trackside and a small yearly dividend.  That certainly beats blowing a lot of money at the windows, just my $2 exacta boxes.



That does beat living in your car, Dan.

When will you all sell your shares?
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2005, 09:07:29 AM »

642/312 or 312/642, plus another exacta or two, maybe with the Pick 4.  So that is how you guys bet!  Is that really handicapping when you cast such a big net?  Go against me on a $2 exacta box every race with just two horses only (no other type of bets) every race and see what you do at Hawthorne!  That is handicapping, trying to win the most with the least amount bet or lose the least!  No wonder you guys get "juicy" prices, especially when you are putting out "juicy" amounts of money in a bet.

It is a little bit harder when you do not cover all the possiblities, isn't it?  Just  thoughts from a poor pensioned school teacher, who would rather bet on the surest thing in racing:  CD stock!

wow. YOu have to be flexible in betting this game (just mho).
sometime I bet only 1 hoss to win sometime I dutch a win bet, box a 3 hoss exacta, Key 1 hoss in the exotics,key 2 hosses in exotics.

The key to winning at the races is have flexibility in betting. Obvious with a 14 hoss field you bet differently than a 7 hoss field. Much better change at a big payoff.

Here is a truism.

as the fields increase so do the prices that the hosses will pay. Generally speaking.

I am proud to say my flexibiily granted me a 16% return on betting investments this year. Better than most stocks. lesser than some.
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2005, 10:17:10 AM »

Then there are those that think the $2, 2-horse exacta box is the worst bet in all of racing, because it always includes at least one losing bet, while giving very little chance of making a profit.
 
Similarly, Wall Street pro's advise against the small investor investing in individual stocks, in favor of funds and other tools that offer blended risk and managed growth.

These are just opinions, Dan, and you know the expression: everybody has one.

Good luck and Happy New Year.
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David
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2005, 11:18:52 AM »

Most of the heavy players I know or have seen tend to bet alot into the exacta pools and play alot of combinations, most of which combinations are just insurance. Someone might play 1000 into exactas in a race with maybe 1 combo for 300, 2 for 200, 2 for 50, 10 for 10 dollars, 10 for 5 dollars, 10 for 3 dollars ann 10 for 2 dollars, the numbers usually don't come up that neat - but you get the idea. They are really just looking to hit one of the 3 large bets the rest are just covering themselves and getting back thier grand or a little profit. This style of play is especially good at rebate shops as you get a hundred bucks back just for making the bet.

That being said - the heavy players aren't necessarily the sucessful players (goes back to the often mentioned trust fund bettors that JF likes to talk about) and alot can be said for the bet small win large mindset mentioned above.

I tend to use the exacta more as insurace against a win bet (if I love a horse and bet him to win I will sometimes take insurance underneath a horse that worries me). I also love trying to beat odds on horses in exactas - they tend to pay very well if you can get a second or third choice over a 3/5 horse - it basically is a win bet on your pick but you get a bonus, often substantial,  if the heavy chalk runs second.

Biggest Al, 2.32 roi on the year - job well done if your log is honest and correct.
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edwarren
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2005, 01:45:59 PM »

Most of the heavy players I know or have seen tend to bet alot into the exacta pools and play alot of combinations, most of which combinations are just insurance. Someone might play 1000 into exactas in a race with maybe 1 combo for 300, 2 for 200, 2 for 50, 10 for 10 dollars, 10 for 5 dollars, 10 for 3 dollars ann 10 for 2 dollars, the numbers usually don't come up that neat - but you get the idea. They are really just looking to hit one of the 3 large bets the rest are just covering themselves and getting back thier grand or a little profit. This style of play is especially good at rebate shops as you get a hundred bucks back just for making the bet.

That being said - the heavy players aren't necessarily the sucessful players (goes back to the often mentioned trust fund bettors that JF likes to talk about) and alot can be said for the bet small win large mindset mentioned above.

I tend to use the exacta more as insurace against a win bet (if I love a horse and bet him to win I will sometimes take insurance underneath a horse that worries me). I also love trying to beat odds on horses in exactas - they tend to pay very well if you can get a second or third choice over a 3/5 horse - it basically is a win bet on your pick but you get a bonus, often substantial,  if the heavy chalk runs second.

Biggest Al, 2.32 roi on the year - job well done if your log is honest and correct.

2.32 seems really high. How do you measure ROI?
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mottoman
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2005, 02:01:49 PM »

I have a return on investment, nobody beats horse racing in the long run I have been around the local game for 20 years and have seen many heavy players and I have never met one that truthfully says he is ahead of the game in the long run!!!  enjoy the sport, I love it but know that I will never be ahead in the long run!!!!!!!!!!!
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2005, 02:14:42 PM »



Biggest Al, 2.32 roi on the year - job well done if your log is honest and correct.

Thanks I have a log of all bets made on my NJ bets card. Only two losing months this year. (march and April). (BTW I was In england in April and I lost 100 pounds there in a weeks woth of racing)
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APCD Dan
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« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2005, 02:27:05 PM »

Then there are those that think the $2, 2-horse exacta box is the worst bet in all of racing, because it always includes at least one losing bet, while giving very little chance of making a profit.
 
Similarly, Wall Street pro's advise against the small investor investing in individual stocks, in favor of funds and other tools that offer blended risk and managed growth.

These are just opinions, Dan, and you know the expression: everybody has one.

Good luck and Happy New Year.

The $2 exacta box probably is a bad one but for me, I just need a couple of them to hit to break even on the day.  Too bad I fall short of that goal a lot.

The only individual stock that I own is CD (small amount), the bulk of my investment is in mutual funds which have not exactly made me very wealthy the last few years.

>>When will you all sell your shares?<<

When I can't make it to Arlington or Trackside anymore, probably?  Although it gives me a small connection to racing, since I don't bet much or own a horse.  As I like to say, Mr. D and I own most of Churchill.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2005, 02:36:28 PM »



Biggest Al, 2.32 roi on the year - job well done if your log is honest and correct.

Thanks I have a log of all bets made on my NJ bets card. Only two losing months this year. (march and April). (BTW I was In england in April and I lost 100 pounds there in a weeks woth of racing)
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2005, 02:41:41 PM »

2.32 seems really high. How do you measure ROI?

For every 2 bucks bet this year I made 2 bucks and 32 cent back.

Thats a good roi but not great.

 (and once you subtract my racing expenses well you get the drift)

LOL got a ways to go to even match Andy Beyers 50K year at the track.
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David
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« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2005, 04:11:11 PM »

Ed, ROI in racing is based on a 2.00 unit, so if Al made 16 percent on his bets he would have a 2.32 ROI, if someone was to lose 5 percent (that is get 95 dollars back for every 100 bet) he would have an ROI of 1.90. The math is pretty simple - just get a ratio of money returned per dollar bet and double it.

2.32 is an awesome ROI, the reason I questioned you is that all too often people have a way of forgeting to log some bets for some reason (mabye like I was drunk or maybe it was sloppy, or don't even remember what they bet etc. etc.) alot more only keep logs when they are winning. When alot of people are confronted with an accurate log they often are shocked at how much lower thier return is then they imagined. Was this for your netjersey account only ? or does it take into account your live play (I assume you play live as well). Like I said, I don't know you Al, but if it is totally legit you did an awesome job and deserve congratulations for the good year and  with good consistency as well with only 2 losing months - mabye it is time to up your units?



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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2005, 12:30:02 PM »

Ed, ROI in racing is based on a 2.00 unit, so if Al made 16 percent on his bets he would have a 2.32 ROI, if someone was to lose 5 percent (that is get 95 dollars back for every 100 bet) he would have an ROI of 1.90. The math is pretty simple - just get a ratio of money returned per dollar bet and double it.

2.32 is an awesome ROI, the reason I questioned you is that all too often people have a way of forgeting to log some bets for some reason (mabye like I was drunk or maybe it was sloppy, or don't even remember what they bet etc. etc.) alot more only keep logs when they are winning. When alot of people are confronted with an accurate log they often are shocked at how much lower thier return is then they imagined. Was this for your netjersey account only ? or does it take into account your live play (I assume you play live as well). Like I said, I don't know you Al, but if it is totally legit you did an awesome job and deserve congratulations for the good year and  with good consistency as well with only 2 losing months - mabye it is time to up your units?





Yes, NJbets card takes into account my offtrack play and my ontrack play.
I make all my bets though cards (excpet when I was In the UK and they didn't have any cards). I also used a NY card when playing live at a NY track.

almost voucher free in 2005. (except when cashing out).

2.32 was decent. and yes I have increased my units. I bet appox 1000 a day
on my selected races. thats my comfort level right now.
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David
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« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2005, 04:57:38 PM »

I don't mean to keep hounding you, but are your results skewed by a large hit? like a P-6 or huge super or an absolutlely crushed trifecta pool or something. Or are they a result of grinding out a steady advantage? 2.32 roi is a very good number and if it is over alot of plays i and isn't skewed by a monster score - it is very impressive.
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CLOCKERbiggestal
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« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2005, 05:38:04 PM »

I don't mean to keep hounding you, but are your results skewed by a large hit? like a P-6 or huge super or an absolutlely crushed trifecta pool or something. Or are they a result of grinding out a steady advantage? 2.32 roi is a very good number and if it is over alot of plays i and isn't skewed by a monster score - it is very impressive.

Nah no problem David. I did hit three "signers" tris this year. But Mostly it was just a grind em out affair consitantly picking winners and exactas in turf races.
Just Like today in Calder 6th. 8 buck winner and 83.20 exacta. Only race I played all day. If you pick you spots........ Cheesy

Allan
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