Chicago Barn to Wire Breeders' Cup Handicapping Tournaments
Home | News | Bloggers | Forums | Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Contact Us | Search


October 30, 2014, 02:09:24 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: If you don't remember your password, email me.

New  registration procedures -- Some ISPs have been bouncing the verification emails.  Please email me to be activated or if you have any problems.  Click Contact Us above.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: VALUE ! TELL ME HOW YOU DETERMINE VALUE ?  (Read 1163 times)
race track phil
Guest

« on: December 12, 2005, 06:28:06 PM »

              OK GUYS ,         let me hear how you determine value when you handicap ? I know how I determine value . I'm curious if any of you use my formula or something different . lets see what you really know about value in a race .                   RTP
Report to moderator   Logged
off stride
Guest

« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2005, 06:40:49 PM »

WELL...FIRST OF ALL I MAKE MY OWN LINE FOR THE RACE...THROW THE PROGRAMS MORNING LINE OUT THE WINDOW...MY LINE CAN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SUCH THINGS AS DRIVER CHANGES AND WEATHER CONDITIONS...THEN AS CLOSE TO POST AS YOU CAN WAIT..THE HORSE UNDER 15-1 THAT IS HIGHER THAN MY ODDS GETS THE ACROSS THE BOARD PLAY... I GET MANY PLAYS AT 6-10/1 AND USUALLY MAKE A GOOD RETURN IF MY HORSE RUNS 2ND OR BETTER...IF THE CHALK DOESNT HIT THE BOARD I CAN REALLY SCORE...STRICTLY AN OVERLAY PLAYER
Report to moderator   Logged
cumonwire
Full Member
***
Posts: 139




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2005, 07:10:26 PM »

I've been doing this so long that it is instinct. 

At the Meadowlands value can always had with tri bets.  And those 10-cent bets a Balmoral are offering tremendous value.

But basically, I have to take horse - driver - odds - likely race strategy - weather - into account.  And the lower the odds on a horse, the better the driver has to be for me to lay my money down.  I love a long-shot who is likely to follow the favorites cover, especially if the favorite has had hard trips in his previous races. 

If the horse is a monster, like Peaceful Way I need to get 3-1 on my gimmicks with a potential of 20-1 or I sit.

Great question

Report to moderator   Logged
baron
Full Member
***
Posts: 220




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2005, 07:27:36 PM »

Value to me is 5/1 or better, period. If I don't get that, I don't play, period.

Some argue with me that 5/1 is not value on a 20/1 shot, but I think it is. If the horse was not a contender I wouldn't be looking at him.

I can honestly say there is no way in hell I could turn a profit taking horses any less than 5/1. But knowing this, I have 'transformed' my game to optimize profits. Has worked very well so far.


              OK GUYS ,         let me hear how you determine value when you handicap ? I know how I determine value . I'm curious if any of you use my formula or something different . lets see what you really know about value in a race .                   RTP
Report to moderator   Logged
Joe B
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 881




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2005, 08:06:03 PM »

OK GUYS , let me hear how you determine value when you handicap ? I know how I determine value . I'm curious if any of you use my formula or something different . lets see what you really know about value in a race . RTP

In my opinion, 2-1 can be value if there's a 3/5 favorite who i think is no good.....It's all how you look at it....value to me is playing a race when you think the favorite won't win....
Report to moderator   Logged
njhorseman
Guest

« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2005, 08:37:11 PM »

In my opinion, 2-1 can be value if there's a 3/5 favorite who i think is no good.....It's all how you look at it....value to me is playing a race when you think the favorite won't win....

There can also be value in the favorite, if he's going off at 2-1 and you think he should be 1-2. That's why I can't identify any particular odds that represent value. It's all how the probable payoffs of each individual race or bet stack up.
Report to moderator   Logged
Kenneth J. Chadwick
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3047




Ignore
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2005, 10:54:49 PM »

Value

I look at each race and rank the horses in probability.

I give a numerical rating for all horses.

If my top horse numerical rating is 120

I will only consider the horses within 10 points of the top, i.e. 120-130.

I look at odds on these contenders and play the greatest overlay.

I will have 2-4 plays a night.

Some night, not even one play.

I get hits that the odds are from 7/2/ to 15:1.

I play only mile tracks: Balmoral at the present, waiting for some form at the Meadowlands.

That's it for me.


Kenneth J. Chadwick
Report to moderator   Logged

It's a Wonderful Life, let's live every moment like its your last.
davenchop
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 800




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2005, 12:25:48 AM »

newjersy horseman and joe b you nailed it right on the head... a horse can be 1-1 like cody little gal tonight at maywood and be a good price in my mind..with holland from the rail on another 1-1 horse which i thought had no chance at all to beat widger, saying that, playing evern money horses isnt the best idea but occasionally i think it works(especially at maywood). another thing i notice is most horses that win  get action at the window... it may be a 8-1 who should be 15-1 and vice versa a horse who looks to go off at say 2-1 is 7-2 for sake of argument would be a horse i would be leary of, usually someone knows if a horse isnt right and you can tell sometimes by the lack of action the horse is getting..of course i follow balm and maywood every single night so it helps me in realizing what a horse should go off at.
Report to moderator   Logged
race track phil
Guest

« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2005, 12:33:51 AM »

            very good guys !  all of you have good reasons ,  JOE B AND N J HORSEMEN .  both said very important things about getting value . sometimes value is as joe b stated you have a phony 4/5 that has a chance to be out of the money . you can get value betting that 2-1 in some gimmicks . I look for that situation all the time , its a definite win situation in the long run . now as far as paul said he has a solid point . about seeing a horse that should be way lower in odds in your opinion . remember favorites win 33 % of the time and you can get value actually from a 4/5 . but this requires that you have balls to bet very large . give you a situation race . would you bet at 4/5 loyal opposition against the top mares at maywood . well it would be stealing ! years ago there were standouts like that only the bettors did'nt realize that a particular horse had champion written all over the program so you were able to get 4/5 . I personally would bet 3000 to win right away to kill the 20 dollar bettors from wagering on him . naturally the horse would open up 1/9 but they would float up to 4/5 normally . anyways sometimes you have to take what they give . every race is different and making your own odds is very important . now this is the best value you can get . when you see 10 horse field and you have 5 automatic throw outs in your mind . thats value if you wager accordingly and can find the key horse out of the other 5 horses . well anyways to each his own and I hope you all have success the way you wager .                     RTP
Report to moderator   Logged
Claiming King
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1689




Ignore
« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2005, 10:21:59 AM »

There can also be value in the favorite, if he's going off at 2-1 and you think he should be 1-2. That's why I can't identify any particular odds that represent value. It's all how the probable payoffs of each individual race or bet stack up.

In fact, those are the most common values. Johnson County has been a good value the last five times he's raced.
Report to moderator   Logged
fineline
Guest

« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2005, 03:25:21 PM »

Overlay is value but you must be very careful with some overlays ,Because you might be in a trap   depending on who it is . .
Report to moderator   Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.092 seconds with 16 queries.

Home
Upcoming events
Breeders' Cup
Horse slaughter in IL
Racing TV schedule
News Updates
Legislation

Galloping Out

Previous stories

Arlington
Balmoral
Hawthorne
Maywood
Chicago Sun-Times
Chicago Tribune
Blood-Horse
Daily Racing Form
Thoroughbred Times
Harness Link
Illinois Racing Board

 

2014

Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2013

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

2012

Breeders' Cup
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Arlington Million
Triple Crown
Illinois Derby

More ebay items

 

Home | News Updates | Bloggers | Forums | Search
Resources | Links | Marketplace | Gallery | Advertising | Contact Us

Copyright © 2000-2014 Chicago Barn to Wire. All rights reserved.
Privacy policy